World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

I am thinking of backing Pauleta of Portugal to be the top scorer at 29-1.

Portugal play Angola and Iran in their first two games. Hopefully he will get a hatful, and I can hedge it by laying him at a much cheaper price on betfair.

Thoughts?

Who are you backing for top scorer?

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

Seems like a good bet.

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

Is he Portugal's nominated penalty taker? I think that has to be considered when betting on highest scorer. Lampard at 70-1 looks very good (top english goalscorer in qualifiying and according to a BBC story I read will still be taking the penalties despite his miss last week) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

Humm nice Bets.

I would add Shevchenko too. Ucraine will play against Tunis and Saudi Arabia and Spain is not that good team

Ronaldo is overvaluated.

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

*shrug* Makes sense to me, but I know nothing.

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Humm nice Bets.

I would add Shevchenko too. Ucraine will play against Tunis and Saudi Arabia and Spain is not that good team

Ronaldo is overvaluated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ukraine is unlikely to advance into the round of 16 and is one of the lowest scoring sides in the tournament. That bet is dead money.

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

To win he will need 7/8+ goals, perfectly possibleI suppose but the total goals line for all of Portugal is 7.1-7.7 goals.

If he has a chance the better value bet is probably Portugals total goals. (I just can't have another bet on lots of goals!)

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

I think Figo is the nominated penalty taker of Portugal. That may explain the nice odds for Pauleta. It's very tough to win this without shooting any penalties.

I would say that Ukraine is a slight favorite to advance (come on, they are better than Tunis and Saudi). A bet on Schevchenko is definitely not dead money. If you still think it is, PM me and lay a price and I'll consider betting it.

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

[ QUOTE ]

Ukraine is unlikely to advance into the round of 16 and is one of the lowest scoring sides in the tournament. That bet is dead money.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. Ukraine is better than 50/50 to advance to the round of 16.

Jesse

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

Pauletta has an excellent record for Portugal, almost 1 in 2 games and possibly the Hedging option is worth considering with Betfair. I personally dont think he will end up on top as you have to consider its unlikely Portugal will beat both Angola and Iran substantually, Iran have come a long way and are capable of holding a team/creating problems and Angola will be very physical which Portugal will not be overly happy with!

Then if they qualify Portugal will face either Argentina or Holland (assuming these two qualify as they should). They could spell the end of their competiton...worth thinking about.

With regards to Schevchenko he is really short of match practice and banging goals in for AC Milan is a lot easier than doing it for the Ukraine. I think they will sneak out of the group stages but not much further so I think at the odds on offer for him (about 25/1) he's not a decent bet.

My money? Well at the moment I'm very keen on the Czech Rep staying in for a long time and at big odds I quite fancy the likes of Jan Koller (109/1 on the exchanges)...I dont tend to do favourites with bets like this!

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

Come on mate, have you seen him play? Do you really think he is that good? Is odds are that high because it is unlikely he will be top goal scorer. Don't do it!!!

Teams to watch are Holland and Italy. Van Nistleroy has found his touch again in the recent friendlys. Italy usually have one goal scorer who score most of the teams goals Scap in '90, Vieri, Bagio etc. this year Toni is one to watch as he was the top scorer in serie A. Though Italy brought about 5 strikers with them and they are all quite good.

Adriano will probably be Brazil's top goal scorer, now that Ronaldo has picked up a slight knock and is fat/lazy.

Schevchenko isn't a bad bet Ukraine did really well in the qualifers and have a decent chance of winning their group. Ibrhamovich for sweden might be a decent outside bet. He links well with Larsson and the Swedes score goals. Though they havent played well in recent friendlies.

I think Henry is a poor bet as is any England player.

If your thoughts are still with Pauletta - i think Borgetti will score more goals than him!!! Pauletta sucks i hope i have changed your mind.

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am thinking of backing Pauleta of Portugal to be the top scorer at 29-1.

Portugal play Angola and Iran in their first two games. Hopefully he will get a hatful, and I can hedge it by laying him at a much cheaper price on betfair.

Thoughts?

Who are you backing for top scorer?

[/ QUOTE ]

While I think Ronaldo will score the most, there is no value there.

I like Luca Toni - Italy attacks a lot more and he can ring up a bunch of goals in the first round. If Italy wins the group he'll go against Japan/Croatia next. More goals.

Next I like Van Nistleroy - great striker, great team, occasionally can score at will. Con - Group of Death.

Raul would be my third betting choice. He will crash the net many times against Tunisia and the Saui Arabian team [no D]. In the second round he gets Swiss/Korea, neither of whom are that good.

Finally I'd look at Crespo, prolly not great odds, but Argentina has something to prove and can go to the Finals. If they win their group they get Mexico/Portugal next. Con - Group of Death.

Naj

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

ocd: meant Torres, not Raul.

Naj

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Ukraine is unlikely to advance into the round of 16 and is one of the lowest scoring sides in the tournament. That bet is dead money.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. Ukraine is better than 50/50 to advance to the round of 16.

Jesse

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagreed. Tunisia is more likely to advance than Ukraine.

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Ukraine is unlikely to advance into the round of 16 and is one of the lowest scoring sides in the tournament. That bet is dead money.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. Ukraine is better than 50/50 to advance to the round of 16.

Jesse

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagreed. Tunisia is more likely to advance than Ukraine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop being a fool.

Ukraine is 70% to advance, Tunisia less than half that.

There are active markets on this stuff. Your opinion really doesn't matter unless you're a market maker.

You can wager as many thousands as you like at 2-1 that you Tunisia advances and Ukr does not. You should get on that.

I'll wager as much as I can on your even money on UKR v Tunisia who makes it out of the round-robin against you if you like. $10k a good start? Both advance is a push.

Naj

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Ukraine is unlikely to advance into the round of 16 and is one of the lowest scoring sides in the tournament. That bet is dead money.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. Ukraine is better than 50/50 to advance to the round of 16.

Jesse

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagreed. Tunisia is more likely to advance than Ukraine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop being a fool.

Ukraine is 70% to advance, Tunisia less than half that.

There are active markets on this stuff. Your opinion really doesn't matter unless you're a market maker.

You can wager as many thousands as you like at 2-1 that you Tunisia advances and Ukr does not. You should get on that.

I'll wager as much as I can on your even money on UKR v Tunisia who makes it out of the round-robin against you if you like. $10k a good start? Both advance is a push.

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

Sports betting is an efficient market; what an adorable notion. Tunisia is slightly more likely than Ukraine to advance (52.8%/46.7%). It's terribly crushing that you think I'm wrong, but I will survive. I have already taken the appropriate World Cup positions, but thanks for the offer, red ass.

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

I grabbed Klose as well on a whim at 25-1 at sia.com, better lucky than smart....

Naj

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Ukraine is unlikely to advance into the round of 16 and is one of the lowest scoring sides in the tournament. That bet is dead money.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. Ukraine is better than 50/50 to advance to the round of 16.

Jesse

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagreed. Tunisia is more likely to advance than Ukraine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop being a fool.

Ukraine is 70% to advance, Tunisia less than half that.

There are active markets on this stuff. Your opinion really doesn't matter unless you're a market maker.

You can wager as many thousands as you like at 2-1 that you Tunisia advances and Ukr does not. You should get on that.

I'll wager as much as I can on your even money on UKR v Tunisia who makes it out of the round-robin against you if you like. $10k a good start? Both advance is a push.

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

Sports betting is an efficient market; what an adorable notion. Tunisia is slightly more likely than Ukraine to advance (52.8%/46.7%).

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Pls share with us the source of this market so that people who want to bet UKR can
a) benefit from much better odds, and
b) give YOU better odds on Tunisia to boot!

We all await your secret website with the massive arb on it.

All non-imaginary websites have UKR at 68% or so and Tunisia at 34%. I guess you like even money bets better than 2-1 in your favor. Smart!

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Ukraine is unlikely to advance into the round of 16 and is one of the lowest scoring sides in the tournament. That bet is dead money.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. Ukraine is better than 50/50 to advance to the round of 16.

Jesse

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagreed. Tunisia is more likely to advance than Ukraine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop being a fool.

Ukraine is 70% to advance, Tunisia less than half that.

There are active markets on this stuff. Your opinion really doesn't matter unless you're a market maker.

You can wager as many thousands as you like at 2-1 that you Tunisia advances and Ukr does not. You should get on that.

I'll wager as much as I can on your even money on UKR v Tunisia who makes it out of the round-robin against you if you like. $10k a good start? Both advance is a push.

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

Sports betting is an efficient market; what an adorable notion. Tunisia is slightly more likely than Ukraine to advance (52.8%/46.7%).

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Pls share with us the source of this market so that people who want to bet UKR can
a) benefit from much better odds, and
b) give YOU better odds on Tunisia to boot!

We all await your secret website with the massive arb on it.

All non-imaginary websites have UKR at 68% or so and Tunisia at 34%. I guess you like even money bets better than 2-1 in your favor. Smart!

[/ QUOTE ]

Naj, you're talking to a troll, a/k/a wasting your breath.

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

schevchenko+the ukranian women's shotput team are better than tunisia.

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

I think both David Villa and Luca Toni are underpriced given their domestic form over the last season and the fact that both their countries are in pretty good shape this time round.

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

[ QUOTE ]

Really? Pls share with us the source of this market so that people who want to bet UKR can
a) benefit from much better odds, and
b) give YOU better odds on Tunisia to boot!

We all await your secret website with the massive arb on it.

All non-imaginary websites have UKR at 68% or so and Tunisia at 34%. I guess you like even money bets better than 2-1 in your favor. Smart!

[/ QUOTE ]

hahaha

I guess you missed that day in 2nd grade when they taught reading comprehension.

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

Tunisia sucks. YSSCKY.

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
ocd: meant Torres, not Raul.

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

Torres, Crespo, and Van Nistleroy bets lookin' good!

Naj

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
I grabbed Klose as well on a whim at 25-1 at sia.com, better lucky than smart....

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

Klose's my pick. Dont remember what I got and too lazy to check. I also got Rosicky for Czech as a looooong shot.

Klose gets active and can do some scary things to opposing defences.

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I grabbed Klose as well on a whim at 25-1 at sia.com, better lucky than smart....

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

Klose's my pick. Dont remember what I got and too lazy to check. I also got Rosicky for Czech as a looooong shot.

Klose gets active and can do some scary things to opposing defences.

[/ QUOTE ]

Still in with Klose, Torres, Messi [not Crespo], Adriano, Toni, Schevchenko.

One of those has got to win the Boot. Right? Right??

Naj

Re: World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I grabbed Klose as well on a whim at 25-1 at sia.com, better lucky than smart....

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

Klose's my pick. Dont remember what I got and too lazy to check. I also got Rosicky for Czech as a looooong shot.

Klose gets active and can do some scary things to opposing defences.

[/ QUOTE ]

Still in with Klose, Torres, Messi [not Crespo], Adriano, Toni, Schevchenko.
Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

Klose was the winner, nice to make some money on this one.

Naj