5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

The preflop raiser (MP2) is a donkey who will go to the felt with an overpair. Button is a solid winning regular (22/12) who most likely has the same read on MP2 that I do.

MP2 has a half stack ($500) and hero and button are both about $1000 behind.


Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to $40</font>, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button calls, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($210, 5 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 bets $175</font>, MP3 folds, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ????</font>

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

I would call, and check the turn. I don't think it's debatable.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

You don't consider a fold?

The preflop raiser has pretty much advertised that he has an overpair and button is still interested in playing for his stack. Button's not playing AA/KK this way, and I don't think 85s is very likely. I suppose JJ/QQ are possibilities but I think he reraises QQ preflop quite often - it seems like 88/55 to me.

I should have also added that there wasn't much hesitation in Button's flop call.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would call, and check the turn. I don't think it's debatable.

[/ QUOTE ]

It certainly is debatable.

I would throw in a pot-bulding raise because

[ QUOTE ]
The preflop raiser (MP2) is a donkey who will go to the felt with an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate to let him get away from this with his 99-QQ when an overcard falls.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

[ QUOTE ]
You don't consider a fold?

The preflop raiser has pretty much advertised that he has an overpair and button is still interested in playing for his stack. Button's not playing AA/KK this way, and I don't think 85s is very likely. I suppose JJ/QQ are possibilities but I think he reraises QQ preflop quite often - it seems like 88/55 to me.

I should have also added that there wasn't much hesitation in Button's flop call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm almost never folding fearing set over set (and I'm pretty confident that that isn't a huge leak, if it's one at all). And if I am, it certainly won't be to the action that occurred on this flop.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

pocketjesuits,

Please don't fold here.


KramerTM,

When you call the pot is $735 on the turn and MP2 has $285 left. I'd imagine he is putting it in on any turn with those hands 95% of the time, as well as many other holdings. This way you get to try and eke out more money from the button.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost never folding fearing set over set (and I'm pretty confident that that isn't a huge leak, if it's one at all).

[/ QUOTE ]

Me neither, and that's why i'm wondering if I should start considering it.

[ QUOTE ]
And if I am, it certainly won't be to the action that occurred on this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? This flop is incredibly dry, yet button has just called a pot-sized bet knowing full well that the rest of the money is going in on the turn.

What could he realistically have here that I beat?

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

[ QUOTE ]
pocketjesuits,

Please don't fold here.


KramerTM,

When you call the pot is $735 on the turn and MP2 has $285 left. I'd imagine he is putting it in on any turn with those hands 95% of the time, as well as many other holdings. This way you get to try and eke out more money from the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what are the intentions of your call? To trap Button?

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

pocketjesuit,

99, TT, JJ.

You call MP2 a donkey. Why are you so sure he has an overpair here?

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

KramerTM,

Yes.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

[ QUOTE ]
You don't consider a fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are considering folding this, you should be folding preflop IMO.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

Because he threw out a pot-size bet into a 5-way pot? Whether he has an overpair or not, he is stating that he has one with this bet.

Button then proceeds to call rather quickly. I have a hard time believing this is 99-TT. JJ maybe.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

[quote
If you are considering folding this, you should be folding preflop IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you playing this for set value if your going to consider folding on this board anyway?!?!?

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

[ QUOTE ]
Because he threw out a pot-size bet into a 5-way pot? Whether he has an overpair or not, he is stating that he has one with this bet.

Button then proceeds to call rather quickly. I have a hard time believing this is 99-TT. JJ maybe.

[/ QUOTE ]

I obviously don't know anything about Button, but you need to re-evaluate your hand ranges that you assign. I think this can easily be 67s, A8s, 66-77, or 99-QQ. People are more willing to call with hands like A8s or 66-77 because they probably won't be risking a significant portion of their stack (assuming they get HU with PFR).

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

You guys talk as if this board is good for me. I'd much rather get it all-in on a board of AT2 or KQ2 two-tone than 852 rainbow.

I'm only considering folding giving the situation. I don't think the button is so eager to flat call a pot-size bet w 99-JJ and I don't put him on 85s. I think his most likely holdings are 88 and 55.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

[ QUOTE ]
I obviously don't know anything about Button, but you need to re-evaluate your hand ranges that you assign. I think this can easily be 67s, A8s, 66-77, or 99-QQ. People are more willing to call with hands like A8s or 66-77 because they probably won't be risking a significant portion of their stack (assuming they get HU with PFR).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is a realistic hand range.

76s doesn't call a potsize bet when villain has very little left behind and there is still the possibility of a checkraise from up front.

I also don't see a float with 77 or 66 in this 5-way pot against this opponent.

Button plays his button aggressively, and I think he would reraise QQ to hopefully pick up the dead money, or at least isolate against this shortstacked opponent.

A8s - i don't think this opponent calls preflop with this

99-JJ - These are possible. However I think button thinks a little about continuing with these hands against a likely higher pair AND a very possible checkraise from up front.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

Dude! You have a set and not deep enough to worry about being set over set. Figure out a way to get all of your money in the middle.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

So if you guys aren't even think about getting away from this hand now, am I assuming that you aren't going to think of getting away from it on a later street?

Suppose these two lines:

1)

Flop:
Hero calls

Turn:
Hero checks, MP2 pushes ($300), Button calls ($300), Hero...

Now can we get away from it? I definitely do not think button would call here with 99-JJ. He would be far too worried about us having a set. I think we can comfortably fold here.


2)

Flop:

Hero raises $500, MP2 calls all-in ($300), Button calls/pushes


Now can we get away from it? We're getting over 3-1 on the rest of our chips but I don't see what we beat here.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

[ QUOTE ]
So if you guys aren't even think about getting away from this hand now, am I assuming that you aren't going to think of getting away from it on a later street?

Suppose these two lines:

1)

Flop:
Hero calls

Turn:
Hero checks, MP2 pushes ($300), Button calls ($300), Hero...

Now can we get away from it?


2)

Flop:

Hero raises $500, MP2 calls all-in ($300), Button calls/pushes


Now can we get away from it?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. And no.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

pocket,

Situation 1) is what I'm gunning for. If it happens, I probably congratulate myself then nut on my laptop.

Obviously 2) doesn't look great but you have to call now. This is why I would not advise raising the flop.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

If button has QQ-99, we'll likely win the pot ($600) and MP2's final chips ($300). I doubt we'll get another cent from the button - he's too smart for that. Although we might still get sucked out on one of their two-outers, and/or a scare card might come for MP2, and/or MP2 might actually fold his overpair / didn't have one. So let's say this line is around (+$700) in EV if button indeed has 99-QQ.

If button has 88/55, we'll lose our stack almost certainly (-$1000).


So how likely is 99-QQ v. 88/55 ? You'd have to be right about button have 99-QQ 60% of the time to make the times you are set v. set donating correct.

Personally I think button has a set here at least 65% of the time.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

Unless of course, we follow line suggestion #1.

Then we only lose $200 to set v. set and we still win a nice pot if button has QQ-99.



I think this mystery has been solved. We should call, check, and fold if button is still interested.


So:

TURN: ($825 in pot), [3c]
Hero checks
MP2 pushes ($300)
Button calls ($300)
Hero folds...


No? Can't we fold comfortably now?

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

why are you looking for an excuse to fold

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

[ QUOTE ]
why are you looking for an excuse to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I think villains actions here scream 88/55.

I don't think i'm being results oriented here either. Earlier I analyzed the range that I gave him, and I think he has 88/55 at least half the time, and probably more.


If I call, check the turn, and then button calls MP2's push, then i'm 90% sure he has a higher set. What else would he have? Button is a good player that I respect.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

given how shallow these stacks are, I dont understand why you are fighting so hard to fold.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

Keep folding sets, it's +EV in multiway pots.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

Well I was hoping that posting this on the high-stakes forum would bring some insight, instead of the standard "never fold a set for a 100BB stack" - i guess it's just easier to live by hard rules than to have to consider each individual situation.

One thing that's definitely not +EV is shoving your whole stack in the middle when you're pretty sure you're beat.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

either you are a troll or u need to learn how to play poker and stop posting here

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

Aren't there 3 draws on this board, 34, 64 and 67, can't he also call with that. Can't he also call with 99-AA or even 77 or 66. Is this "good player" only calling PSB from donks with sets if so then it's an easy muck, if not, your getting 2 to 1 on your money that your correct. You can be wrong 66% of the time and it still be 0 EV, I don't think this is an easy muck as you say it nor is the board entirely dry.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

I explained earlier why he wouldn't call with 76 (MP2 doesn't have much behind - so there's not proper odds - plus there could be a checkraise from upfront). Button is too solid to continue with any of these weak draws.

I'm not saying that it's an easy muck. It's incredibly difficult muck, that's why I posted it. I'm also not saying that folding is the right move - as posted above, I think that calling is correct, with the plan to make a tough laydown on the turn if the button is still interested.

[ QUOTE ]
You can be wrong 66% of the time and it still be 0 EV

[/ QUOTE ]

Not at all - you still have two more betting rounds to deal with. If you're right that he doesn't have a set, he won't put another dime in the pot. But if you're wrong he'll get your whole stack. Reverse implied odds.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

I wish I was the Button, I think your giving him way too much credit. He might be good but he can easily have a lot of hands. I think your possible hands are way too restrictive even if the player is that good.

Is your read on the Button really that exact? You've put him on exactly 1 of 2 hands. Why are you more comfortable with a A102 flop then the one above? Obviously you've pointed out that the Villian probally has a big pair, why can't he have AA? Are you that scared of the Button, will the button only call PSB with sets? As I said, if so then it's an easy muck, if he calls PSB on the flop with anything less this is a very hard muck. I don't have that great of reads on anyone online, obviously you do with said button.

Also as someone said earlier, why call a short stack with 22 if your not going for set value. You got almost your dream flop and now it's an muck? What more do you want, 228 flop and the button has 88? I'm not sure what your gunning for with 22 other than a set on an action flop.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

I dont think folding on the flop is a good option. You have flopped bottom set of a flop of (8,5,2) The only hands that have you beat at this point is pocket 5 and 8. As stated in previous post. If you are going to fold here then why would you even play this hand in the first place? The flop came just as you have hoped for. I think the only real debate here is calling or raising. I think the best play here is to smooth call and bet or raise on the turn. This way you allow the donkey to trap himself even more. Of course the downside is that a scare card like a 6,7 or 9 can come on the turn. But nothing venture nothing gain. In poker you have to take risk and this is not even that big of a risk. And even if one of those scare cards come, your opponent still have to be holding the two perfect card to make a stright to beat you.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

Can't someone tell OP what he wants to hear so we can let this thread die? You should obviously fold here, button has a higher set.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

[ QUOTE ]
You should obviously fold here, button has a higher set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

call, lead turn

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

[ QUOTE ]
call, lead turn

[/ QUOTE ]

With what intention?

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

seems to me as if mp2 can have antyin from overpair/air and button clearly has an overpair... whcih there is enoguh money in the pot there on turn that atleast 1 of them HAS to call

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
call, lead turn

[/ QUOTE ]

With what intention?

[/ QUOTE ]

to fold, button has a higher set.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

Mods,

In all seriousness, threads like this should be moved to mid or small stakes forum.

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 

Why?

We're playing for stacks here and it's an intricate question of table dynamic and ranges.

Seems like this is supposed to be the forum for high-level thinking, but all I hear is "you're a fool if you fold a set." Perhaps some of the responses are what belong in the mid/small stakes forum.

[ QUOTE ]
Can't someone tell OP what he wants to hear so we can let this thread die? You should obviously fold here, button has a higher set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps I just wanted to hear some thought put in as to what button could quickly call with on the flop that I have beat and call a potential turn bet. Instead what I get is "you have a set you idiot - push!!!!" and a bunch of insinuations that I am weak/tight simply because I am thinking about button's hand range instead of playing on autopilot.
[ QUOTE ]
Obviously you've pointed out that the Villian probally has a big pair, why can't he have AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

99% sure button never cold-calls w AA as the third one in the pot, letting everyone in for cheap.

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you more comfortable with a A102 flop then the one above?

[/ QUOTE ]

AT2 two-tone, button could reasonably have two-pair on a draw. On this board there is almost no hand where he calls quickly other than a set, and possibly JJ.


Anyways, thanks to all who responded seriously.