5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

folded to me on button i open Jd6d (my image is LAG), sb(950) who is tightish TAG player and seems decent (sry no PT stats) repots to 115. BB folds and i decide to raise again making it 290 str8, he pauses and calls.

flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
check to me...

pot is 590 and we have 650 left. push and try to leverage some FE or check behind and see a freebie?

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

push yo

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

I used to push on TAGs in this situation all the time, but realized that they always trap in this spot with monsters and only sometimes lay down QQ. I would check behind and stack him when the diamond comes on the turn.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

Push dat [censored]. If a brick comes, you can't win the juicy pot.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

shove, this is great for your image either way

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

I think his range is so heavily weighted towards AA/KK/Occational AK that you should take your freebee.

You may fold QQ sometimes... but he put in half his stack PF, and he's probably calling.

I don't think the metagame is worth it, and folding to a turn push shows that you're re-raising light, anyway. Besides, I think that we [censored] with his head a lot more when we hit our freebee on the turn, and bust his KKK.

You also have 6 outs to a big enough draw to call a turn push with only very slightly -EV, which would also have very interesting meta-game implications, ESPECIALLY if you suck out.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

check behind

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
shove, this is great for your image either way

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

You need to see two cards - no way your going to see the river without calling close to pot on the turn.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You need to see two cards

[/ QUOTE ]
Why?

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

ah-in baby

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You need to see two cards

[/ QUOTE ]
Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

We've got a draw, lots of dead $ & repped a big hand. If a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hits I don't think more $ is making it's way into to the pot. Further, a brick falls we are going to pay near pot to draw to the last card?

Do you simply give up after the 3-b to 290 pf?

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

since you 4-bet preflop and hit a draw on the flop, you shouldn't really be looking to fold here

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I used to push on TAGs in this situation all the time, but realized that they always trap in this spot with monsters and only sometimes lay down QQ. I would check behind and stack him when the diamond comes on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to disagree, I really think a push is in order to win the pot against QQ-JJ. How do you expect to win this pot if you check the flop and a brick hits? I don't like checking the flop with only 650 behind in a 500+ pot. Why would we advocate check-folding the turn if a non-diamond hits... because that's why we'll have to do if he bets out with those hands.

Are you saying he won't bet out the turn with QQ and JJ and can then see the river for free anyway? and that the hands he'll bet the turn are ones you're losing to on the flop so there's no loss in checking the flop and folding the turn?

Against lags you must bet the flop.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

if this is ub then i push because they always put you on AK when you do that 4 bet stuff.

on party i think the TAGs have a greater chance of having only AA or KK.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

FV,

the real question is, why did you 4bet preflop without a plan?

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

FWIW, my plan is usually to give up once they call the 4 bet. I'll 4-bet to try to take it down, but if I don't take it down I usually find that it's because they have a monster and only didn't push because they want me to keep betting with worse. I would check here.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

push....you need to see two cards, a third diamond may scare him, and even if you miss it will be good for your table image

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

I think you guys are over estimating the times you get QQ to fold the flop here (and I'm not all that convinced that QQ would play it like this). I think my best chance to fold QQ is to check the flop and push any turn bet if he doesn't commit himself. I'm not sure it matters much though but I'd be giddy to showdown this hand, win or lose.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

The problem is that if you check behind and whiff the turn, any bet he makes on the turn is going to he uncallable because his shallow stack in comparison to the pot gives no implied pot odds, and you will have no fold equity. Basically, any bet he makes on the turn is going to be a push, and you can't call the push without a made hand.

Push now.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
FV,

the real question is, why did you 4bet preflop without a plan?

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

I talked with FV about this hand, I don't think QQ stabs on the turn, so he might even get to the river for free, no? Plus for some reason whenever I do something like this I get looked up by QQ all in on the flop pretty often (i know, it's pretty sad), but if I check the flop and bet the turn QQ folds. Also don't underestimate the willingness of a lot of donkeys to call that 4bet or wahtever preflop with AK and then go broke on a K high flop. I feel like everytime I pull some [censored] like this they always call with AK and bust me because I'm sitting there thinking "damnit, don't you read 2+2, fold AK to the reraise preflop."

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is that if you check behind and whiff the turn, any bet he makes on the turn is going to he uncallable because his shallow stack in comparison to the pot gives no implied pot odds, and you will have no fold equity. Basically, any bet he makes on the turn is going to be a push, and you can't call the push without a made hand.

Push now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. However, even though I agree with this I still think you are up against AA or KK an overwhelming majority of the time. Hmm, seems like a push might not be great idea after all.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
folded to me on button i open Jd6d (my image is LAG), sb(950) who is tightish TAG player and seems decent (sry no PT stats) repots to 115. BB folds and I decide to raise again making it 290 str8, he pauses and calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know I am going to sound like a nit but what is up with the preflop? You say you have LAG image and SB is tightish TAG. Then your 4-bet gives him 2.4 to 1. Then to compound this, if he calls, he will easily be able to talk himself into a call given stack sizes.

Also, are there not around 50 other hands we would rather have in this spot then just some suited junk so why this particular hand in this spot?

As played I would push flop all day for two reasons. I think you do have decent FE equity against all non AA, KK, AK hands and I also think there is a lot of value in showing this hand when called.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

nitnitnitnitnitnitnitnit [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really think a push is in order to win the pot against QQ-JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think people are both over-estimating the likelyhood that he has QQ-JJ, and the likelyhood of him folding them.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really think a push is in order to win the pot against QQ-JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think people are both over-estimating the likelyhood that he has QQ-JJ, and the likelyhood of him folding them.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. also, QQ-JJ are not going to push the turn just because you checked the flop.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You need to see two cards

[/ QUOTE ]
Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

We've got a draw, lots of dead $ & repped a big hand.

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We repped a big hand, but I don't think he folds NEARLY often enough for a push to be profitable, in and of itself.

[ QUOTE ]
If a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hits I don't think more $ is making it's way into to the pot

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Hahahaha. Come on now. Pretty fckin' tough to put us on a flush draw, with the PF action.

[ QUOTE ]
Further, a brick falls we are going to pay near pot to draw to the last card?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, probably not. Not unless an 8 or 4 rolls off, anyway.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you simply give up after the 3-b to 290 pf?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yup.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

I dont like a push here, i agree with azk that whenever the [censored] I try to pull this i get looked up, mainly because of my image.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

If you push and got called 100% of the time, it would be skightly -EV. I'm not going to do the exact math, but if he has TT, JJ, and QQ in his range, which he should some of the time given your image, he definitly might fold these, making this a pretty straightforward push IMO. He would have to fold something like 10% of the time? That seems good to me.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you push and got called 100% of the time, it would be skightly -EV. I'm not going to do the exact math, but if he has TT, JJ, and QQ in his range, which he should some of the time given your image, he definitly might fold these, making this a pretty straightforward push IMO. He would have to fold something like 10% of the time? That seems good to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

you have to weigh this against taking the free card and hitting on the turn to stack him in the 90% that he isn't going anywhere though. intuitively i feel 10% is not enough to justify pushing over peeling one off.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
He would have to fold something like 10% of the time? That seems good to me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Gabe, I don't think this number is right. Are you saying that he has to fold 10% of the time for a push to be +EV? Because that doesn't show pushing is a better than checking, which also shows positive expectation.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
f you push and got called 100% of the time, it would be skightly -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmm slightly -EV vs HUGELY +EV?

hmmmmm

Pushing gives you, at best, a VERY VERY slightly +EV spot.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you push and got called 100% of the time, it would be skightly -EV. I'm not going to do the exact math, but if he has TT, JJ, and QQ in his range, which he should some of the time given your image, he definitly might fold these, making this a pretty straightforward push IMO. He would have to fold something like 10% of the time? That seems good to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

you have to weigh this against taking the free card and hitting on the turn to stack him in the 90% that he isn't going anywhere though. intuitively i feel 10% is not enough to justify pushing over peeling one off.

[/ QUOTE ]
lots of good posts in this thread...
im not a math guy, but 10% cant be right intuitively, agreed.
if i turn flush and he has AA/AK/KK i will bust him for the rest of his entire 650 almost always.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You need to see two cards

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't understand the "we need to see two cards" stuff. If we know villain is going to call, checking is much better than pushing. So the question is how often does villain need to fold to make pushing better and how often does he actually fold?

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

Def push here. You have about 740 equity in 1900 pot against AA or QQ (640 when he has diamond, same as against his AdKo. If he has KK,you have 518.

The thing is, if a blank falls on turn, your lose about 350 in equity against AA or QQ. So yeah, i think push for sure here on flop.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think his range is so heavily weighted towards AA/KK/Occational AK that you should take your freebee.

You may fold QQ sometimes... but he put in half his stack PF, and he's probably calling.

I don't think the metagame is worth it, and folding to a turn push shows that you're re-raising light, anyway. Besides, I think that we [censored] with his head a lot more when we hit our freebee on the turn, and bust his KKK.

You also have 6 outs to a big enough draw to call a turn push with only very slightly -EV, which would also have very interesting meta-game implications, ESPECIALLY if you suck out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Def push here. You have about 740 equity in 1900 pot against AA or QQ (640 when he has diamond, same as against his AdKo. If he has KK,you have 518.

The thing is, if a blank falls on turn, your lose about 350 in equity against AA or QQ. So yeah, i think push for sure here on flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
This thinking does not work if he will pay off a flush on the turn. In that case, which I think is the case here almost every time, you don't lose any equity by checking. If the turn blanks, the flop equity was fictitious anyways.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

I think Hero's FE is miniscule here and has a good chance of busting the Villain if he hits on the turn. Check.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

Guys,

I seem to be on a completely different page to most in this thread.

Let's assume this guy has QQ. He repops you. You 4-bet. He's thinking 'omg, AA/KK? are you f'ing kidding me?'. He reasons 'maybe this guy has AK, i'll see a flop', and calls. He has put 290 of 950 in. Please note, BigJim, that this is not 'half his stack'.

The flop comes Kxx. He checks. You bet. He deduces 'jesus, now i beat nothing', and folds.

Of course, I don't think he has QQ all that often. But he has it some of the time. And I really don't think he's going to the felt with it anywhere near as often as you guys are trying to make out.

FWIW, I would bet, and I would bet $425. It's scarier to the average opponent than going allin.