Coping with GOOD luck
 

I've been on a bit of a heater for the last week, and today, the first day of my "fiscal" month I sit down at Party and play the $100 and $200 tables because I am working off 1000 hands for bonus. I play the morning session 100 hands and I am up $200, I sit down in the afternoon and play another 100 hands and I am now up $480.
My BB/100 is 92. I have played well, but clearly the stars are simply aligned. NOW WHAT? I want to work off bonus, but a little voice is telling me "quit while you are ahead". Too much prosperity makes me nervous and I absolutely HATE when a win streak ends so part of me is screaming bank it and "conserve" the good feeling for tomorrow, because it is virtually impossible to keep a run like that going.

Am I out of my mind?

Interstingly, these are my first 200 or so hands with a new Party Alias. I wonder if that has gotten me a few calls I wouldn't have normally.

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

Quit while you're ahead if you notice that being ahead by X amount is affecting your play (ie, I'm up $500 on the session, that is an awesome result, I don't want to dip below $500 so I'm going to play extra tight, etc). I do this all the time, even sitting out before the blinds hit, etc.

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

Good advice, I do that too. In this case it isn't an amount per se, I've had bigger days, it is the first day of the month and I'd just as soon bank a juicy day than bust up a streak of good play. But unlike you I have I have the option of moving up and scoring bigger (or losing it all back in a hand), so I wonder if I am being lame or losing my nerve in a manner of speaking.

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

The play at the 100 and 200 tables on Party (and the 400 and 600 tables, for that matter) is terrible. Find a table with 2 or 3 of the known idiots and keep playing.

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

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Good advice, I do that too. In this case it isn't an amount per se, I've had bigger days, it is the first day of the month and I'd just as soon bank a juicy day than bust up a streak of good play. But unlike you I have I have the option of moving up and scoring bigger (or losing it all back in a hand), so I wonder if I am being lame or losing my nerve in a manner of speaking.

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Personally, I think you are approaching this fine (by sitting out and banking a strong 1st day to the month). Purists will tell you that you are making a mistake by not playing when the games are good, you're playing well, and so on--the hours-not-results crowd. This might be true in theory, but it completely ignores human nature: like much of the online poker community, you obviously keep track of stats on a by-month basis. Just take a look at all the threads here and in BBV that begin with the name of a month. Therefore, your current mindset depends on how well you're doing in the current month. As such, booking a win to start off the month on a good note and fortify your confidence going forward seems like a very good decision to me. On the flipside, if you were to take a shot at 1k, suffer a bad beat, and end up even or down for the day, then you might slip into a tailspin.

I am the same way, and I openly admit that it is theoretically a weakness to rely on a keep-the-ball-rolling approach to results on a by-month basis. But I think it's better to acknowledge that weakness and work around it (like you are doing here) instead of trying to brute-force suppress it by continuing to play and so on.

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

That is what my gut tells me despite the fact that I recognize that playing for the monthly results is artificial and a weakness. I think I will finish off the "first" Party May bonus playing low-level NLHE, which will burn off the hands quickly enough and preserve that winning PLO8 feeling.

Thx. for the response(s)

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

Good call. Here's a good analogy... you have probably heard that many cyclists won't screw the night before a stage of the Tour de France or other big races. Well, it's been shown that screwing the night before has basically no impact on the next day's results, from a purely statistical, scientific standpoint. However, if a given rider believes strongly in not screwing the night before, and gets a psychological edge from not screwing, EVEN despite the fact that he is aware that the effect is entirely psychosomatic, then he is better off not screwing.

If he is able to look at the statistical evidence and truly believe it, then he should be able to screw some hot sloot if he so chooses and not have it affect his race. But, if he only *thinks* he believes the statistics, screws the sloot, and then feels a little fatigued the next day due to random chance (bad meal or something), and then starts to let doubt creep into his mind, giving rise to psychological hindrance, then he has made a big mistake by screwing the sloot.

What all this means is that if you have a psychological weakness or superstition or whatever, you might frequently (depending on how bizarre it is) be better off acknowledging it and working around it than battling it head on and suffering as a result.

Also, we are lucky that sloot-screwing would never be psychologically linked with bad poker results.

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

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Quit while you're ahead if you notice that being ahead by X amount is affecting your play (ie, I'm up $500 on the session, that is an awesome result, I don't want to dip below $500 so I'm going to play extra tight, etc). I do this all the time, even sitting out before the blinds hit, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

And does your husband play poker too?

-g

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

[ QUOTE ]

And does your husband play poker too?

-g


HEADS UP FREEZEOUT 100K NOW, OR ARE YOU A

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

This is a common psychological problem even for people who understand the gambler's fallacy. This used to happen to me moving up limits (it's usually a function of bankroll - not that you're underrolled, just not grossly overrolled).

If you can't overcome your desire to "protect" a win, you need to stop playing. This is tilt. That said, you need to overcome this issue if you're going to become a successful gambler. Barry Greenstein's (excellent) book talks about the importance of eschewing small wins (i.e. just to book a win) and going for a "huge score." It's more than "play for hours, not results" - thoses times you win big you are more likely to have a large-edge situation at the table. These do not last forever. This is especially true in shorthanded games.

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

This is why I posted my question. I know that there is conventional wisdom to what you say, however, I tend to favor Mute's advice. Here's why. (Close cousin to "Do you see why")

I question to what degree Greenstein's advice applies to online poker. In this instance, none of the tables I was playing at was particularly juicy. They were pretty standard table composition-- much the same as I would find everyday with many of the same players. There was not a particular "fish" or plural "fishes" giving away money, I simply caught good cards If I thought I was sitting at a juicy table I wouldn't have even considered leaving. I don't think I was leaving a big score on the tables.

That said, I agree that this mentality is a weakness-- however, perhaps one that it is better to play around in some online situations where favorable conditions are constantly shifting around and realigning themselves on different tables, in a way that does not happen in live poker.

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

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Good advice, I do that too. In this case it isn't an amount per se, I've had bigger days, it is the first day of the month and I'd just as soon bank a juicy day than bust up a streak of good play. But unlike you I have I have the option of moving up and scoring bigger (or losing it all back in a hand), so I wonder if I am being lame or losing my nerve in a manner of speaking.

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there's a lot of very real psychology that applies here. if you want to stop when you're way up, then stop. all of this talk about "keep playing if it's a good game and you're playing well" and "it's just one long session" has some valid points, but these types of platitudes tend to ignore the psychological aspects of poker.

booking a big win gives some people a lot of confidence, while blowing one (or even losing a bit of it) breaks this confidence in others. know yourself and act accordingly.

honestly, go with what works for you. i'd only be concerned if you find yourself booking small wins and big losses. i don't think that's the case for you.

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

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The play at the 100 and 200 tables on Party (and the 400 and 600 tables, for that matter) is terrible. Find a table with 2 or 3 of the known idiots and keep playing.

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there are only two or three known idiots at party?

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is why I posted my question. I know that there is conventional wisdom to what you say, however, I tend to favor Mute's advice. Here's why. (Close cousin to "Do you see why")

I question to what degree Greenstein's advice applies to online poker. In this instance, none of the tables I was playing at was particularly juicy. They were pretty standard table composition-- much the same as I would find everyday with many of the same players. There was not a particular "fish" or plural "fishes" giving away money, I simply caught good cards If I thought I was sitting at a juicy table I wouldn't have even considered leaving. I don't think I was leaving a big score on the tables.

That said, I agree that this mentality is a weakness-- however, perhaps one that it is better to play around in some online situations where favorable conditions are constantly shifting around and realigning themselves on different tables, in a way that does not happen in live poker.

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glad you booked the win, but why were you at these tables anyway? i would never sit at a table if i couldn't identify AT LEAST one fish/donator (not difficult at party, imo).

fwiw, i've gotten over the session obsession by just doing the following. after each session, i review all of my big hands. i look at the twodimes numbers, and i try to put villain on a reasonable range (and run these numbers, too). some of this is enlightening in terms of statistics (my intuition is not always accurate about the equities), but the important thing is that i'm able to evaluate the quality of my decisions. i've found that this has cut down DRASTICALLY on my bad decisions, as i've come to realize the times when i'm putting my money is as a dog. gradually these instances are becoming more and more rare. regardless, even if i lose money at the tables, i'm OK with that as long as i've made good decisions.

i also journal all of my "lessons", so that i can review them when necessary. this journal could easily become a book (one that i'll never publish).

fwiw, i also don't track results by month, week, etc. these are just arbitrary cut-off points. i'm OK with tracking by year, and by quarter might be OK if you play enough hands. other than that, i just want to evaluate my play on a hand-by-hand basis. i look at sessions only if i see a trend (e.g., saturday mornings at party are not wildly profitable -- *cough* weak-tight nut-peddlers *cough*).

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

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glad you booked the win, but why were you at these tables anyway? i would never sit at a table if i couldn't identify AT LEAST one fish/donator (not difficult at party, imo).


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This is an intersting point. I have been probably a little slack in my "fish" tracking. At the limits I usually play, I think they tend to go away quickly, and as a consequence I tend to simply look for looser tables. Keep in mind if you multi-table above $100 limits, there are seldom THAT many different tables to choose from. I will generally flock to the loosest table and close down a table where I recognize too many tight players. Most of the time this gives me an edge on whatever table I am playing on, but I probably DO need to devote more time to a cataloguing the FISH rather than relying on Pokertracker and settling for a smaller edge.

That said, I would be giving up a pretty steady advantage if I only sat down at a table where I could identify at least one fish/donator (at least by my standards).

Case in point: Today I sat down at the $400 tables and I'd say I immediately recognized about half the tables as chronic players I'd consider solid (but not quite as good). There were a couple more that I had played with but made no impression and 2 unknowns. One of the unknowns with a name that closely resembles "Letool" seems to enter a lot of pots and makes a lot of pot sized bets and re-raises where it is unlikely that anyone has much of a hand. He comes over me on a pretty big steal attempt and I go down $100. It doesn't take long for me to catch a strong 2 way hand, get some money in the pot, and I take all but $70 of his stack-- which he didn't rebuy. This is not an uncommon scenario, and one which if I refused to sit because there were no identified fish (and the rest of the table was solid) I would be $230 poorer. I view myself as having an advantage at virtually every table I play and view every unknown player as most-likely to be giving up a HUGE advantage to me.

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

i suppose i should clarify my definition of "fish" and "juicy table".

a fish, well, i have my own criteria. bb/100 is a good one, but there are others that are better at determining how much they will lost TO ME. there are "winning" players over thousands of hands who i know are ultimately donators to my stlye. i'll let you figure out how to find these players on your own. bb/100 ain't it.

at the 100s and 200s, a table full of people who are 5 ptbb/100 or less is a good table to me. i take from all of these people over enough hands.

the tables i AVOID are tables like the 400s on weekend mornings. you're often looking at a lineup of a lot of players at the table with 10 ptbb/100 (or so) winrates. the fishy money just gets chopped up between these mofos. they push chips around otherwise.

fwiw, i have to be very careful about table selection. i live in japan, so "prime time" for me is early morning US time. i see a lot more WT nutpeddlers at this time than mornings for me (evenings US time). i might be a bit sensitive to this issue, but i think that my concern is well-placed.

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

I can't use BB/100s as a measure because I don't datamine and I don't think I have any player in my database who has over 5000 hands-- which still is too small for a reliable sample size when it comes to BB/100s. I don't even display this stat (it used to be calculated incorrectly across multi-limits in PTO-- as well).

Any time there are too many players with VPIP 25 or less, PF raise > 5 and TA > 1.5 and W$SD > 60* at the tables such that this is pretty much the average, then I don't have much of an exploitable advantage. I am convinced that if your numbers are very close to these that you are almost certainly a very solid winning player. There may be very good players whose numbers stray in both directions for VPIP and Pre-flop raise percentage, but if these numbers are Higher for such a good player then they are very good to have at your table because they generate action.

* these numbers are based on full ring play.

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

And since taking this sage advice wherein I stopped playing Omaha on Monday in favor of some lower limit Hold-em to "preserve" the win-- and heater, here are my PL08 numbers for the last 2 days.

http://img303.imageshack.us/img303/2873/heater2gs.jpg

I must have picked a REALLY good new alias at Party, obviously. Seriously though, an absurd amount of this money has come from players that I am certain would not have called me if they knew who I was. Food for thought.

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

i'm thinking that's sustainable.

Re: Coping with GOOD luck
 

Hell yes! I'm actually running at 60BB/100s so far this month [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

The thing is that for most of March and far too many days in April (which was my most profitable month yet) I was digging my way out of holes when I sat down at the tables. So far this month I sit down, I double-up, I leave and go play hold-em. Come back a couple hours later, sit down, double-up, leave...etc...

It's been adding up to about $600 a day, and my expectation is really only about $100 (right now), so even though it feels a little timid, it also feels right. Also, even though I've been lucky and paid off, I've played at around 90% of my potential-- which I consider to be a very high percentage. So, though arguably my reticence to bust up a streak has not affect my play AT the tables, it is limiting my time at the tables. I think continuing to play well is FAR more important, which is what MUTE was alluding to.