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NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
Still 4-5 hours away (what time do the lines come out in EST? Sorry, I'm in Arizona and we don't do daylight savings)
I'm more interested in the Missouri/Kansas line than any live ever. If the line is where I think it is, I'm hitting Mizzou for 5u. Anyway, I think: Missouri v. Kansas -2 Tennessee @ Kentucky +3 Arkansas @ LSU -12 Alabama @ Auburn -7 I'll guess some others. I think something we should do next year is also talk about which teams you anticipate betting this week before we see the lines. for example, I fully anticipate getting value on: LSU Alabama Missouri South Carolina USC |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
No way the Auburn line is 7. I'd say -4.5 or -5.
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Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
I'd be all over Alabama +7, but I think with Alabama losing to ULM, Vegas knows the public will think they're awful.
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Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
Did you intentionally put a plus sign next to Kentucky or was that supposed to be -3? Because at +3, I'd hammer the hell out of UK. I'd probably even bet them at -3.
As for Mizz/Kan, I think we'll see either Missouri -1 or PK. |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
i agree that if missouri opens as a dog, people should bet it. true line imo (based on half-assed watching of both teams) is missouri -3
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Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
Kansas -3
BC -14.5 Auburn -6 |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
I think Kansas should be favored by about 2. I don't know that they *will*, but I disagree with jumping all over Missouri if they're getting points. Unless you're doing it purely to fade the BCS #2 team... in which case you might be on to something.
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Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
Tennessee @ Kentucky should probably be about a pick. I'll probably be on Kentucky at +3 or better and UT at +4 or better.
Pirateboy, I like you and you're a good poster, but every single one of your UT predictions that I have seen has been shaded towards UT. When Sagarin has Kentucky 4 better at a neutral, and considering the stinkers UT has put up on the road and the fact they were lucky to beat Vanderbilt at home, proposing UT -3 is pretty absurd. |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
That makes me a sad Panda.
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Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
Lines are out KY -3.5 Auburn -7 and PK Missouri Kansas
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Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Lines are out KY -3.5 Auburn -7 and PK Missouri Kansas [/ QUOTE ] they're not out at bookmaker |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
LVSC opening Lines.
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Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
I'd like Bama quite a bit at 7.5 or better.
At PK I actually think I like Kansas. Their non-conference blowouts have inflated their Sagarin a little bit, but I have been very impressed by them overall. Some people might be biased against them because they haven't played a tough schedule, but all you can do is beat the teams on your schedule and they've taken care of business and mostly been impressive doing it so far. |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
I think I like Missou - wins over Illini and loss to healthy Okla. I bet people will hop on Kansas though, not knowing it's not on their home turf. And Kansas QB is nicked up, not badly but still.
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Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
I think I like Missou - wins over Illini and loss to healthy Okla. I bet people will hop on Kansas though, not knowing it's not on their home turf. And Kansas QB is nicked up, not badly but still. [/ QUOTE ] Mizzou has been great no doubt, but I honestly think Kansas might be the best team in the country. They've hardly even had a hiccup. Even their "close" games like A&M and Colorado were on the road and were not as close as the scores indicate - the only game they've been in danger of losing was Kansas St., a rivalry game on the road. I think Kansas -2 is about right. |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
Kent -1.5, 1u
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Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
ASU +3, 1u
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[ QUOTE ]
ASU +3, 1u [/ QUOTE ] got that too, and Clemson -2.5 |
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Stanford -3, 3u
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UConn +17, 1u
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Mizz +2.5, 1u [already moved 3.5 pts or more]
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[ QUOTE ]
Mizz +2.5, 1u [already moved 3.5 pts or more] [/ QUOTE ] 1 more Mizz +3, 2u total. |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
Missouri +2, 5u
Boise St +5, 1u Vandy +2, 1u S. Carolina +2, 1u Tennessee +3, 1u Alabama +7, 1u Fresno St -1.5, 1u I think there is a ton of value out there right now. |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
I think Missouri's big-time value at +3. The only other passing team KU's faced this year was Nebraska and they threw for 405 yards and scored 39 points.
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Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Pirateboy, I like you and you're a good poster, but every single one of your UT predictions that I have seen has been shaded towards UT. When Sagarin has Kentucky 4 better at a neutral, and considering the stinkers UT has put up on the road and the fact they were lucky to beat Vanderbilt at home, proposing UT -3 is pretty absurd. [/ QUOTE ] I think you're probably right. |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
Just saw that Boise State line, OMG! I might put my whole roll on that. Hell, I might put my whole roll on the moneyline.
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Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
Added Arizona St +3.5
Where did that Missou line open? |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
Not to sound like a square or anything, but isn't Boise +4.5 (or plus anything, really) pretty much just free money? Iggy obviously agrees with me... is there anyone here who can come up with a valid reason not to bet this game?
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Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
game in Hawaii LDO
Mizz -1 [where I saw it first to answer your query] |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
Kansas is -2.5 at thegreek
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Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
<u>Hawaii at home vs. I-A opponents this year</u>
(Sagarin ranking in parenthesis) (149) def. Utah State 52-37 (153) def. New Mexico St. 50-13 ( 67) def. Fresno State 37-30 Color me unimpressed. FWIW, Boise beat Utah State 52-0 on the road, NMSU 58-0 at home, and Fresno State 34-21 on the road. Giving 6 points for HFA (which I think is fair), Sagarin likes Boise by 2.5. |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
Really Really Really like Georgia + 3.5 @ GT
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Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
The 50-13 Hawaii game against NMSU was more like 43-27, the aggies were moving the ball quite nicely but kept stalling inside the 15. add on a late Hawaii pick-6 and it looks like a blowout but wasnt.
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Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
Games i am looking at
Troy -11.5 Colorado -6 Wyoming +3 Boise St +4.5 Missouri +2 Auburn - 6.5 Georgia -3.5 Washington -5.5 VT +3.5 Stanford - 3.5 |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Really Really Really like Georgia + 3.5 @ GT [/ QUOTE ] I would, too, if that were the line. |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
Speaking of the UGA/GT line, Iggy - thoughts? You're the GT fan, yes?
I like UGA -3, because UGA still has a chance of a BCS bowl and something to play for. |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Games i am looking at Troy -11.5 Colorado -6 Wyoming +3 Boise St +4.5 Missouri +2 Auburn - 6.5 Georgia -3.5 Washington -5.5 VT +3.5 Stanford - 3.5 [/ QUOTE ] VT is -3.5 I took two ACC games- Duke +14 @ UNC NC STate pick v. Maryland |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Speaking of the UGA/GT line, Iggy - thoughts? You're the GT fan, yes? I like UGA -3, because UGA still has a chance of a BCS bowl and something to play for. [/ QUOTE ] Damn I hope we beat them, and I think we have a shot but I can't recommend betting on either side in this one. We haven't beat them since I was still a student (2001), and our guys are pumped to break that streak. Tashard Choice (and the other seniors) does not want to end his college career w/o a single win against U(sic)GA. Both teams always come out amped up for this game, and there have been some downright crazy games in the series.. it is just really unpredictable. Also home field advantage probably has less value in this series, as the schools are so close together and always make a substantial amount of tickets available to each other. |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
UConn +17
UGA -3 Oregon -3 Pitt +11 Oklahoma -13 |
Re: NCAAF Week 13 Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
<u>Hawaii at home vs. I-A opponents this year</u> (Sagarin ranking in parenthesis) (149) def. Utah State 52-37 (153) def. New Mexico St. 50-13 ( 67) def. Fresno State 37-30 Color me unimpressed. FWIW, Boise beat Utah State 52-0 on the road, NMSU 58-0 at home, and Fresno State 34-21 on the road. Giving 6 points for HFA (which I think is fair), Sagarin rating likes Hawaii by 4 to be accurate. [/ QUOTE ] |
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