Staking Question
 

Not really sure where to post this...so Ill go where Im a little known.

Im thinking about staking a cash game player.

Whats the standard profit split these days? 50/50?

Does it change based on his proven winrate?

Thanks,
Evan

Re: Staking Question
 

i mean its tough, if u stake a friend 50 and they hit 150 they will try giving u 100 and keep their 50 right away. You need to set a certain amount he hits til he pays u off or a certain amount of hands or something

Re: Staking Question
 

Hi,

If you know matlab you could check out this. There are probably a couple of wrongs since its the first time I do this:

%h=number of hands the stake is over
%s=standard deviation in BB/100
%w=assumed winrate of stakee
%r=stake amount
%percent= % you take

function ror(h,s,w,r,percent)

result=zeros(1000,1);
org=r;

for p=1:100000
for i=1:h/100
r=r+s*randn(1)+w; %randn gives numbers normally distributed around 0.
if r<=0
r=0;
break
end
end
if r>=org
result(p)=(r-org)*percent;
else
result(p)=r-org;
end
r=org;
end
result=sum(result)/100000

%%%%%%%%%%
I plugged in some sample numbers and ran it

ror(10000,30,2,200,0.5) => 57
ror(10000,30,1,200,0.5) => 3

Re: Staking Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not really sure where to post this...so Ill go where Im a little known.

Im thinking about staking a cash game player.

Whats the standard profit split these days? 50/50?

Does it change based on his proven winrate?

Thanks,
Evan

[/ QUOTE ]
depends. stakes. duration. trust. many factors.

Re: Staking Question
 

Seems more to consider then I first thought.

Keep,

Where do I find StdDev?

Edit-Found it

Re: Staking Question
 

Hmmm, thought I had it when I glanced at it...but now I guess I dont.

What do the 57 and the 3 represent?

Im not a math guy and add that to being dog tired and Im just braindead

Re: Staking Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm, thought I had it when I glanced at it...but now I guess I dont.

What do the 57 and the 3 represent?

Im not a math guy and add that to being dog tired and Im just braindead

[/ QUOTE ]
It should mean that you make 57BB or 3BB. But its late here too and I have never done these types of calcs before so its very possible I have done some sort of logical error. Its ofc also VERY questionable if the results are normally distributed over so small samples..

Re: Staking Question
 

Keepitsimple,

This looks correct, and is an extremely useful tool for anyone considering a staking arrangement.

Re: Staking Question
 

yeah this is super variable. proven wr for higher/lower levels, rb, bonuses, amount of play...duration of stake, etc.

Re: Staking Question
 

Keep,

I cant figure how to do it myself or I would, but would you(or someone else well versed in these things) run the following.

10000,14,2,15000,0.5

10000,14,1,15000,0.5

30000,14,2,15000,0.5

30000,14,1,15000,0.5

This isnt LHE, its razz..so no the 14 StdDev isnt a typo.

Re: Staking Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Keep,

I cant figure how to do it myself or I would, but would you(or someone else well versed in these things) run the following.

10000,14,2,15000,0.5

10000,14,1,15000,0.5

30000,14,2,15000,0.5

30000,14,1,15000,0.5

This isnt LHE, its razz..so no the 14 StdDev isnt a typo.

[/ QUOTE ]
The lower STD combined with the "unlimited" bankroll makes this very EV. But I would use caution since the short term results in poker isnt normally distributed.

10000,14,2,15000,0.5: 97 (This would obv be 100 if he never busted)
10000,14,1,15000,0.5: 40
30000,14,2,15000,0.5: 299
30000,14,1,15000,0.5: 143

Re: Staking Question
 

Another thinkg to keep in mind is that if he is down towards the end of a fixed time/hands stake his play will change. He may not do it with concious and malicious intent, but it will happen.

Re: Staking Question
 

Yea just realized that the 15000 that I put in reped BB not dollar amount.

Im told a 250 BB bankroll is solid for razz, so thats what we were thinking

Re: Staking Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yea just realized that the 15000 that I put in reped BB not dollar amount.

Im told a 250 BB bankroll is solid for razz, so thats what we were thinking

[/ QUOTE ]
I tested to plugin some weird numbers and the model doesnt really behave as I would have expected. On the other hand I have never been good at statistics..

For your example mntbikr15. 250BB is enough given the other assumptions. You just dont bust that often. However it just doesnt seem right.. :/

10000,14,2,15000,0.5: 96
10000,14,1,15000,0.5: 37
30000,14,2,15000,0.5: 296
30000,14,1,15000,0.5: 133

Hopefully someone who is a math guru can comment. For example if you put in a STD which is very large compared to your stake. I assumed you would lose a lot. However the off chance of a huge score and the fact that you can only lose the original stake appearently make it very EV. This is obviously very wrong but it might be the assumption of poker being normally distributed thats the culprit and not the program itself. So we have to feed the model "nice" variables to get something out of it. Well enough rambling. Please someone who is good at math comment.

Re: Staking Question
 

one problem with your model is it just looks at the final result. so if the person goes below 0 and then comes back it counts that as a positive amount instead of the 0 it would be in reality (since the person would stop playing after hitting 0).

to correct this you'd have to model it in smaller chunks. for example, instead of using the final results for 10000 hands, run 10000 individual hands, summing after each one, and if it ever goes below 0 end the simulation. this would represent one trial of 10000 hands.

with a very high standard deviation, of course there will be some huge wins, but there's a very good chance you went bust before getting those wins.

edit: this will not make a big difference if the probability of busting is ~= 0 (low standard deviation, high starting bankroll, and/or small number of hands).

Re: Staking Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
one problem with your model is it just looks at the final result. so if the person goes below 0 and then comes back it counts that as a positive amount instead of the 0 it would be in reality (since the person would stop playing after hitting 0).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so, he is running a loop iteration for every hand, and has a break condition if the amount of the stake is ever <= 0.

Re: Staking Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
one problem with your model is it just looks at the final result. so if the person goes below 0 and then comes back it counts that as a positive amount instead of the 0 it would be in reality (since the person would stop playing after hitting 0).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so, he is running a loop iteration for every hand, and has a break condition if the amount of the stake is ever <= 0.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh, yeah you're right (well, it's every 100 hands, but still). i didn't look closely enough at the code. disregard that problem then