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Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)
First, sorry this is an image. I didn't want to spend a lot of time figuring out how to make that into a UBB Code table.
http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/334...preflopnw3.jpg I know this issue has been debated before, and the generally accepted idea seems to be not to fold KK preflop up to around 100BB. I'm hoping to bring this discussion to a higher level, at the risk of being called a noob. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] A few disclaimers: * All my data is based off $0.50NL. I'm sure things are different at different limits. * These hands are ones I observed going all-in preflop. The vast majority of them I was not all-in preflop, and probably held junk hands. * I ommitted results in bottom right due to having insufficient data. One hand in a cell doesn't tell you anything. * Although I included data for QQ-AQo where there were a few hands in one cell, realize that for these hands it's a small sample size. I am not saying that AKs will win 84% of the time for between 30-40BB. 25 hands isn't that many. When I started playing cash games, I would always be willing to go all-in preflop with KK unless I knew my opponent well enough to know he would only go all-in preflop with AA. I got burned so many times holding KK all-in preflop against AA, that I stopped being willing to go all-in preflop with KK. I ran across this humerous picture contest thread that made me think maybe I was giving up +EV by not willing to go all-in preflop with KK for amounts anywhere near 100BB. So, I ran some custom queries against my PokerTracker database of 180,000 hands at $0.50NL, and the conclusion I come to from my data is that going all-in preflop up to 50BB or 60BB is profitable, but beyond that, it's not. Based on my data, once you pass the 60BB point, kings win less than 50% of the time, and go into deep negative average BB/hand. 180,000 hands is a large sample size, but obviously not enough to come up with a rock solid conclusion. Does anyone have any data to refute my findings? Were pocket kings just really unlucky during the 180,000 hands I've seen? |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)
For anyone wanting to query their own PT database, here's the query I used. It should grab hands that were all-in preflop (preFlopBet=totalBet AND we saw a river card AND we never folded)
Just change the last two lines in the where clause, from "120" and "200" to the range of BB you want to look at. --------------- SELECT hole_cards, game_level.game_level_big_bet, SUM(total_won-total_bet) AS Net, COUNT(*) AS Times, SUM(IIf(total_won>0,1,0)) AS TimesWon, ROUND(100*SUM(IIf(total_won>0,1,0))/COUNT(*)+0.000001,1) AS PercentWon, ROUND(AVG((total_won-total_bet)/game_level.game_level_big_bet)+0.000001,2) AS BBPerHand FROM game, game_players, game_level WHERE game.game_id=game_players.game_id And game.game_level_id=game_level.game_level_id And pre_flop_bet=total_bet And hole_cards<>"" And game.river<>"" And isnull(game_players.when_folded) And (game_level.game_level_big_bet between 0.49 and 0.51) And hole_cards in("AA","KK","QQ","JJ","TT","AKo","AQo","AKs","AQs ") And pre_flop_bet>=game_level.game_level_big_bet*120 And pre_flop_bet<game_level.game_level_big_bet*200 GROUP BY hole_cards, game_level.game_level_big_bet ORDER BY game_level.game_level_big_bet DESC, COUNT(*) DESC ; --------------- |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)
A couple things -
1) Is this in PTBB? It looks like it, and that would solve this pretty quickly if so. 2) It doesn't look like your sample size is enough for the event your looking at, I mean KK winning after being all in preflop 0 percent of the time between 120bb-200bb obviously isn't realistic. 3) The effective stacks seem to be somewhat small a lot of the time, which would be somewhat explained if you're using PTBB instead of bb. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)
ALTHOUGH -
If these are all hands observed, you could come up with a rough range of what the average player at this limit will show down at each range of stack sizes. Obv it's more complex than that, since some are the ones pushing and others calling, but overall it would be interesting to see what hand you need to play for stacks with in general at each effective stack size at that particular limit. I'm sure KK is ahead that range BTW. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)
[ QUOTE ]
A couple things - 1) Is this in PTBB? 2) It doesn't look like your sample size is enough for the event your looking at, I mean KK winning after being all in preflop 0 percent of the time between 120bb-200bb obviously isn't realistic. 3) The effective stacks seem to be somewhat small a lot of the time. [/ QUOTE ] 1) Sorry, should have specified that. It's in terms of the Big Blind, not PTBB. 2) I agree my KK sample size at 120BB+ isn't very large. However, past the 60BB point there isn't a lot of data suggesting it would be at or above 50%. Past 60BB, KK wins all-in preflop 24/62 times, or 38.7%, with -28.38BB. Even discounting the 120BB+ point, it's 24/58 times, or 41.4%, with -19.46BB. I'd have to assume that if KK gets worse between 60BB-120BB, it will get even worse past 120BB. Looking at it this way, a sample size of 62 or 58 isn't horrible IMO -- but obviously I'd love to have a larger sample. 3) Yeah, I think this is for two reasons. First, people willing to go all-in preflop with less money at the table. Second, so many people at UltimateBet and AbsolutePoker at $0.50NL don't fully load up. I hate that, I always make sure I'm topped off. (On related note, I'm done with AP for now, due to the scandal. Moved all my money from AP to UB. I can't withdraw from UB at the moment due to complicated issues unrelated to Poker that I won't get into.) |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)
With only 62 hands over the 60bb range, I really don't think it's enough to evaluate. I mean most of the samples are decided by one hand...
Second, win % isn't necessarily equal to preflop AI equity, since a small number of those hands can go multiway. You should have a generally downward slope here with enough data as the effective stack sizes increase, and it's not really close there yet. Next, you also have to factor in that there will be some money in the pot when it comes time to decide where to call the AI (for example with a standard raise, three-bet, shove line). With some allowance for multiway and pot odds, you'd likely still be +EV even if you were only 40% win at showdown - although again I'm sure it's not going to be that low in a decent sized sample. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
I _never_ saw a PF AI in my FR games from 100BB stacks w/ QQ, JJ or AQ.
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Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
Also, opponents will notice that you only go all in with AA. Thus going in with more hands will give you more calls when you actually have AA.
So, to make this test truely useful you should compare the winnings of several players all willing to go all-in with different hands (only AA, just AA and KK, AA/AK/KK and so on). Then see who makes the most out of all-in pf situations. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
This is interesting and I would like to see the results of someone with a big PT database. 1-2 million hands maybe. Also the results of someone who datamines and can provide the results from a more independent viewpoint rather then from one player vs the field.
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Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)
[ QUOTE ]
First, sorry this is an image. [/ QUOTE ] I don't see any image. I've tried going directly to http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/334...preflopnw3.jpg and I get nothing. [ QUOTE ] I know this issue has been debated before, and the generally accepted idea seems to be not to fold KK preflop up to around 100BB. [/ QUOTE ] Generally accepted by whom? If you ask players who are collectively barely beating microstakes games, you will hear that they have heard that you should never fold KK preflop. They even showed Farha, known for taking bad gambles, getting all-in with KK for 300 BB against Greenstein as evidence that ... folding KK is always wrong? (Farha pushed over Greenstein's 100 BB 4-bet.) That isn't a rational interpretation. You need to see people pushing with QQ or AK or worse to call all-in with KK. If you look through some of the past higher stakes threads, you will see people have a very different attitude, and can not only fold KK when appropriate, but expect that some opponents are willing to fold KK preflop. [ QUOTE ] I'm hoping to bring this discussion to a higher level, at the risk of being called a noob. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I play poker for the money, not to avoid being called a noob. To win more than a mediocre player, you have to make plays some mediocre players don't like. It's an excellent idea to collect real data, rather than taking a survey of players who haven't collected data objectively. [ QUOTE ] I got burned so many times holding KK all-in preflop against AA, that I stopped being willing to go all-in preflop with KK. [/ QUOTE ] Likewise, although I used a smaller sample. This doesn't mean I fold them preflop. I adopt different lines that rarely result in getting all-in preflop. This may extract more money while ahead. By the way, people often say that if you are willing to fold KK, then you can be bluffed very easily. This is wrong. AA makes up a large percentage of my range whenever I would consider folding KK, so pushing as a bluff would be extremely unprofitable against me. [ QUOTE ] I ran across this humerous picture contest thread that made me think maybe I was giving up +EV by not willing to go all-in preflop with KK for amounts anywhere near 100BB. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] It depends on the stakes. When you are playing for pennies (or the smallest live game available), the players are very likely to be overplaying a weaker hand because they think TT is a monster. When you are playing in a very aggressive game, the raises mean less, the 3-bets mean less, etc. There is a small window in which the players are rarely going to push with QQ or AK, and in this range, calling all-in with KK is often -EV. [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] It depends on position. An open raise on the button represents much less strength than a raise from UTG. This means it takes much more room to figure out that KK is behind when there is an open-raise from late position than when there is a raise from early position. A limp-reraise is usually strong. An overlimp-reraise is not as strong. [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] It depends on the stack sizes. A reraise from someone who could have called for set value is much stronger than a reraise from someone who didn't have that option. [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] It depends on your reads, obviously. Don't give a maniac who 3-bets the same credit as a passive player who 3-bets. If you have been raising a lot, people will play back at you with weaker hands. These are factors to consider when someone sets you all-in. How some sycophant playing NL $10 feels about it shouldn't be on your list. [ QUOTE ] Based on my data, once you pass the 60BB point, kings win less than 50% of the time, and go into deep negative average BB/hand. [/ QUOTE ] Maybe it was supposed to be clearer in the image, but that you may lose money with KK does not mean that the last call was incorrect, or that your last push was incorrect, since you don't have the option to take all of the money back from the pot. If Farha thought that tossing in his last $178,000 would return $179,000 on average (or $179k worth of value), then he was right to do it, even though he would show an average loss of about $10,000 on the hand. So, you might want to compare folding with calling all-in rather than comparing cancelling the hand with calling all-in. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)
People have much wider ranges than you would really think to go all in preflop. Here are my most recent all ins preflop with KK, They are from 50nl and 25nl
------------------ HAND #1 ------------------ Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter Hero (BTN): $71.45 SB: $51.85 BB: $25.75 UTG: $36.95 MP: $28.25 CO: $61.10 Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN) <font color="red">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $51.85 and is All-In</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $45.85 Flop: ($105.95) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Turn: ($105.95) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) River: ($105.95) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $105.95 Pot ($3 Rake) Hero showed K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Kings) and WON $102.95 (+$51.10 NET) SB showed Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$51.85 NET) ------------------ HAND #2 ------------------ Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter Hero (SB): $31.40 BB: $38.40 UTG: $49.85 CO: $18.80 BTN: $105 Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB) 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.50</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $5</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $31.40 and is All-In</font>, BB calls $26.40 Flop: ($62.80) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Turn: ($62.80) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) River: ($62.80) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $62.80 Pot ($3 Rake) Hero showed K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a full house, Kings full of Nines) and WON $59.80 (+$28.40 NET) BB showed Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (two pair, Queens and Nines) and LOST (-$31.40 NET) ------------------ HAND #3 ------------------ Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter Hero (BTN): $45.50 SB: $52.10 BB: $49.60 UTG: $22.15 MP: $25.70 CO: $175.90 Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN) UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $2</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6.75</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $11.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $45.50 and is All-In</font>, MP calls $14.20 and is All-In Flop: ($52.15) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Turn: ($52.15) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) River: ($52.15) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $52.15 Pot ($2.60 Rake) Hero showed K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Kings) and WON $49.55 (+$23.85 NET) MP showed Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$25.70 NET) ------------------ HAND #4 ------------------ Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter CO: $23.20 BTN: $22.90 Hero (SB): $26.90 BB: $25 UTG: $3.50 MP: $14.90 Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB) UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $1</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $26.90 and is All-In</font>, BB calls $24.75 and is All-In, MP folds Flop: ($51) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Turn: ($51) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) River: ($51) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $51 Pot ($2.55 Rake) Hero showed K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a pair of Kings) and WON $48.45 (+$23.45 NET) BB showed J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Jacks) and LOST (-$25 NET) ------------------ HAND #5 ------------------ Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter Hero (BB): $23.30 UTG: $18.65 BTN: $42.10 SB: $22.75 Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB) UTG folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $1</font>, SB calls $0.90, <font color="red">Hero raises to $23.30 and is All-In</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $42.10 and is All-In</font>, SB folds Flop: ($47.60) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Turn: ($47.60) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) River: ($47.60) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $47.60 Pot ($2 Rake) Hero showed K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Kings) and WON $45.60 (+$22.30 NET) BTN showed Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$23.30 NET) ------------------ HAND #6 ------------------ Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter SB: $36.45 Hero (BB): $57.55 Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB) <font color="red">SB raises to $3</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $57.55 and is All-In</font>, SB calls $33.45 and is All-In Flop: ($72.90) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Turn: ($72.90) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) River: ($72.90) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $72.90 Pot ($0.50 Rake) SB showed 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Eights) and WON $72.40 (+$35.95 NET) Hero showed K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a pair of Kings) and LOST (-$36.45 NET) ------------------ HAND #7 ------------------ Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter CO: $28.45 BTN: $46 SB: $18.40 Hero (BB): $28 UTG: $28.90 Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB) 2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $0.85</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $9</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $28 and is All-In</font>, BTN calls $19 Flop: ($56.10) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Turn: ($56.10) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) River: ($56.10) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $56.10 Pot ($2.80 Rake) BTN showed A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (two pair, Aces and Queens) and WON $53.30 (+$25.30 NET) Hero showed K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (two pair, Kings and Queens) and LOST (-$28 NET) ------------------ HAND #8 ------------------ Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter Hero (CO): $24.70 BTN: $8.25 SB: $31.35 BB: $25.25 UTG: $57.60 MP: $8.25 MP posts $0.25 Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO) UTG calls $0.25, MP checks, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.35</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $8.25 and is All-In</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $8, MP folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $24.70 and is All-In</font>, UTG calls $16.45 Flop: ($58.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players - 1 is All-In) Turn: ($58.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players - 1 is All-In) River: ($58.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $58.25 Pot ($2.90 Rake) Hero showed K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a pair of Kings) and LOST (-$24.70 NET) BTN showed J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a flush, Ace high) and WON $24.10 (+$15.85 NET) UTG showed 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a flush, Ace high) and WON $31.25 (+$6.55 NET) I ran into AA in one of those, and one was heads up so that can basically be ignored, but the point here is that ranges for all ins are not neccessarily as small as most people believe and that is why people believe KK is profitable to get all in. If you are not getting called by worse hands than KK or QQ, you need to loosen up a bit. Obviously some of these arent the best examples but i think it gets the point across that people are looser than you believe |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)
It is good to look at actual hands.
It's not good to confuse hands in which someone called all-in, often getting decent pot odds, with hands where someone pushed all-in. When you push all-in with KK, you are not being put to the test, your opponent is. It is news to no one that players make a lot of bad calls. [ QUOTE ] Hand 2: Hero raises to $31.40 and is All-In Hand 3: Hero raises to $45.50 and is All-In Hand 4: Hero raises to $26.90 and is All-In Hand 5: Hero raises to $23.30 and is All-In Hand 6: Hero raises to $57.55 and is All-In Hand 7: Hero raises to $28 and is All-In Hand 8: Hero raises to $24.70 and is All-In [/ QUOTE ] Only hand 1 involved calling all-in with KK. I don't know why this is such a common mistake in threads like this. Hands where you push with KK are not evidence that other people are pushing with worse than KK. As I stated before, you should be able to find examples where people push with less than KK at NL $25. However, you won't find as much at NL $100 compared with the times someone pushes with AA. The OP's data may be biased due to protection pushes. +EV pushes to protect your hand may be behind on average when you get called. The pots won would not show up in the statistics. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)
[ QUOTE ]
Only hand 1 involved calling all-in with KK. I don't know why this is such a common mistake in threads like this. Hands where you push with KK are not evidence that other people are pushing with worse than KK. As I stated before, you should be able to find examples where people push with less than KK at NL $25. However, you won't find as much at NL $100 compared with the times someone pushes with AA. The OP's data may be biased due to protection pushes. +EV pushes to protect your hand may be behind on average when you get called. The pots won would not show up in the statistics. [/ QUOTE ] ehh i wasnt paying close enuff attention but hand 1 should be sufficient. Saying people dont push with less at 100nl is ridiculous. 100nl is more about image at the table. If someone is only pushing AA against you its cuz u are a nit. If you are not seeing people push JJ-AA, AK into you, your image is that of a tight old grandma, especially this is the case at 100nl and above. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Only hand 1 involved calling all-in with KK. [/ QUOTE ] ehh i wasnt paying close enuff attention but hand 1 should be sufficient. [/ QUOTE ] Why did you bother posting 8 hands, if you thought 1 hand was enough evidence? No, a single hand where someone pushed with QQ is not close to enough evidence. Please pay more attention. [ QUOTE ] Saying people dont push with less at 100nl is ridiculous. [/ QUOTE ] No one said that they never do. The question is whether they do it enough to make calling with KK +EV. As has been discussed many times, you don't need to be 90% convinced that someone has AA to make it right to fold KK. Since you are less of a favorite over plausible worse hands (particularly Ax) than you are an underdog against AA, even a 50% chance that you are up against AA can make it right to fold against an overbet. [ QUOTE ] If you are not seeing people push JJ-AA, AK into you, your image is that of a tight old grandma, especially this is the case at 100nl and above. [/ QUOTE ] Was that intended to disparage my play? First, while some people value their table image over money, I don't. I don't care if my table image is fashionable. Second, that my UTG raises get called so frequently, and win so much money for me, indicates that if players view me as tight, they usually don't act on it properly. In fact, I raise so much from late position that I think players assume my early position raising range is much wider than it is. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)
[ QUOTE ]
No one said that they never do. The question is whether they do it enough to make calling with KK +EV. As has been discussed many times, you don't need to be 90% convinced that someone has AA to make it right to fold KK. Since you are less of a favorite over plausible worse hands (particularly Ax) than you are an underdog against AA, even a 50% chance that you are up against AA can make it right to fold against an overbet [/ QUOTE ] This cannot be overstated. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
[ QUOTE ]
If you are not seeing people push JJ-AA, AK into you, your image is that of a tight old grandma, especially this is the case at 100nl and above. [/ QUOTE ] I run like 25/20/5 or 30/25/5 at NL100 and NL200 and no one ever 4bet me w/ less than KK. here is an example how to calculate "Call with KK?" |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Only hand 1 involved calling all-in with KK. [/ QUOTE ] ehh i wasnt paying close enuff attention but hand 1 should be sufficient. [/ QUOTE ] Why did you bother posting 8 hands, if you thought 1 hand was enough evidence? No, a single hand where someone pushed with QQ is not close to enough evidence. Please pay more attention. [/ QUOTE ] easy bud, i was waiting on money exchange and as i said just picked the most recent KKs. Obvi greater sample size is greater proof of anything. How about Winning overall with KK AIPF? Is that sufficient evidence? I can find you 100 players winning overall with KK aipf. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Saying people dont push with less at 100nl is ridiculous. [/ QUOTE ] No one said that they never do. The question is whether they do it enough to make calling with KK +EV. As has been discussed many times, you don't need to be 90% convinced that someone has AA to make it right to fold KK. Since you are less of a favorite over plausible worse hands (particularly Ax) than you are an underdog against AA, even a 50% chance that you are up against AA can make it right to fold against an overbet. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree completely, The fact that you are a fav, whether slight or not, over Ax or other hands gives your KK more equity against a villians range. Knowing someone could have a lone A should not sway you more towards folding but in fact the other way. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If you are not seeing people push JJ-AA, AK into you, your image is that of a tight old grandma, especially this is the case at 100nl and above. [/ QUOTE ] Was that intended to disparage my play? [/ QUOTE ] No, not at all. Lighten up a bit. It was intended to point out the importance of table image vs the actual cards in play. KK will be more profitable if you have developed a way to get people to not believe you always have KK or AA. this is obvi, but needed to be said. [ QUOTE ] First, while some people value their table image over money, I don't. I don't care if my table image is fashionable. Second, that my UTG raises get called so frequently, and win so much money for me, indicates that if players view me as tight, they usually don't act on it properly. In fact, I raise so much from late position that I think players assume my early position raising range is much wider than it is. [/ QUOTE ] this entire quote shows that you do in fact value table image, which is good, as its very important |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
jesus, someone post the [censored] KK picture and close this shiz down.
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Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
Picture shows fine for me.
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Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
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Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
[ QUOTE ]
Picture shows fine for me. [/ QUOTE ] lozl pozld. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
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Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
I have played 120K+ hands at 50NL (major beat I know). I have never folded KK preflop and only once have in retrospect thought I should have after a loose passive 30/3 shoved over a raise and my threebet. There are some situations where if you have a solid read that it is never AK, QQ or something like that maybe you can find a fold. Just because your kings seem to run into aces a lot doesn't mean you should start folding KK to any 4bet/shove. Today I got my AA AIPF against 77 for 160bbs. If I had kings, I'm sure some people would have folded to the 5bet in my situation but seriously, just get it innn!
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Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
This is still a pretty good thread though, and I would be interested if other people's databases can paint a clearer picture.
My experience tells me that calling AI's preflop at 100bb or less with KK is certainly profitable, at least in any isolated HU situation. It obviously isn't as profitable as maybe in the micros, where people will show up with 88 and AQ (probably on a regular basis). OTOH I can't speak to 10/20 or higher. With 100bb though, it's pretty difficult to put an opponent on a range you're not ahead of or close enough to call, especially after other bets and raises have gone in. If your opponent's range is AA(70%), AK(15%) and QQ(15%), with no allocation for a bluff, you still have ~37% equity. The problem IMO is that it's very difficult to put someone on ranges that tight in practice. There are cases where you can, and by all means do it if you're sure you don't have enough equity, or if it's just too close to be meaningful. [I disagree with the idea that you should take any small +EV edge no matter what, BTW. It's not a matter of variance by itself, but the effect on your image and things like that]. I think that if you're unsure about your opponent's range enough that you'd have to post a hand and ask about it, it's wide enough where KK can play for 100bb. pow |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
calling all in with KK implies that you 4bet almost always
if you 4bet you will have at least put in 30 BB (most people 4bet more) therefore you'd have to call 70BB for a 200BB pot meaning you need 35% equity. you have, as stated by Gonso against a 70% AA range a +EV situation. and without a VERY solid read there is NO WAY you can ever fold KK against a push after you 4bet him even lightly this is acutally backed up by the data OP posted. you can have negatives up to 30 dollars and still be positive ev because 0.35*200-100 =-30 but you have to call because you are investing 70 to win an overall of 200 => 0.35*200 = 70... so actualy what OP should say: neverthless my samplesize is way to low i should always call Kings after i 4bet for more than 30 BB so now you know why you never fold KK to a push. there is so much dead money in the pot that he needs only a worse hand occasionally... besides: if you fold everything to a push other than aces, there will be people pushing into you with loads of crap... and you will lose A LOT of money. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
[ QUOTE ]
[Image of Farha sucking out for 600 BB.] [/ QUOTE ] What, if anything, do you think the relevance of that picture is? If anything, it is evidence that calling or pushing over a big 4-bet from a solid player isn't so great when you have KK. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
i really can't belive how anyone can make a statement for folding KK preflop on ANY stakes per default.
if you are not pushing kings to a 4bet. what do you do? fold? without a DEAD ON read you always have to call or push there is no way around it... and this is common kowledge... of course you will find a situation where you can fold it but against 90% of the opponents you just cannot! |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)
[ QUOTE ]
How about Winning overall with KK AIPF? Is that sufficient evidence? I can find you 100 players winning overall with KK aipf. [/ QUOTE ] That statistic is not directly relevant, as I pointed out earlier. That KK is a winning hand overall does not mean you will win on average when you call all-in after a limp-reraise-push. That AA is rare for your opponent to have does not mean it is rare when your opponent 4-bets from early position. That you get called by weak hands does not mean passive players are pushing with weak hands. If you want evidence that calling with KK in some situation is ok, find examples where people (not previously identifiable as maniacs) pushed with less than KK in those situations. Depending on the pot odds, you may need to find one hand worse than KK for every two times you see AA. If it's so obvious that calling all-in with KK is +EV, say at NL $100, it should be easy to find lots of these hands. Instead, people keep posting hands where someone with KK pushes, and someone else makes a bad call. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] As has been discussed many times, you don't need to be 90% convinced that someone has AA to make it right to fold KK. Since you are less of a favorite over plausible worse hands (particularly Ax) than you are an underdog against AA, even a 50% chance that you are up against AA can make it right to fold against an overbet. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree completely, [/ QUOTE ] Then you are wrong. This is a simple mathematical issue. [ QUOTE ] The fact that you are a fav, whether slight or not, over Ax or other hands gives your KK more equity against a villians range. Knowing someone could have a lone A should not sway you more towards folding but in fact the other way. [/ QUOTE ] Adding Ax hands to your opponent's range obviously should make you more eager to call. However, that's not what was being discussed. Replacing QQ with AK in your opponent's range is bad for you. Let's suppose your opponent will only push with AA or AK. You are ahead of 8 hands, and behind 6. However, you are less of a favorite over AK than you are an underdog against AA, which means you are behind your opponent's range. KK has only 47.1% equity against {AK,AA} despite being ahead 57% of the time. It's not as dramatic as having a medium pair against a range of {TT+, AJ+, KQ}, where you are a 4:3 underdog despite being a favorite over 3/4 of the time, but the same logic applies. AA wins 82% against KK. KK wins 74% against {QQ,AK}. If you are up against AA 50% of the time, and {QQ,AK} 50% of the time, then your equity is 46%, and you need about 7:6 pot odds to call, which you don't have against some overbets. My statement was correct. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
when do you ever face overbets?? facing pot odds 7:6???
having KK and beeing pushed directly after a threebet is SO unlikely in low stakes.. OPs point was to fold KK as a default you are making up some rare situations where it might be correct. the "never fold KK" is a simplification of a general rule. a low stakes player WILL NOT be able to seperate the spots where to fold KK from the ones where he shouldn't as proved by OP. if you are good enough to separate them you will be on NL100 and up so it won't really matter anymore thats why the statement exists and it should be applied by any not so good player because they do the math wrong and fold KK after they 4bet for example |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
[ QUOTE ]
i really can't belive how anyone can make a statement for folding KK preflop on ANY stakes per default. [/ QUOTE ] Who said folding KK should be the default? It wastes time to attack straw men. [ QUOTE ] ...this is common kowledge... [/ QUOTE ] A lot of BS is "common knowledge." A lot of the common wisdom in the micro forums is wrong. Be suspicious of anything you can't justify. [ QUOTE ] of course you will find a situation where you can fold it [/ QUOTE ] Please tell that to the many people who are convinced that folding KK preflop is always wrong. [ QUOTE ] but against 90% of the opponents you just cannot! [/ QUOTE ] Why not? In many situations, you should be gleefully calling. In some, particularly at about NL $100, even without a specific prior read, you can't expect to get the cost of your call back from the pot. Is there some reason to call which is more important than money? |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
[ QUOTE ]
when do you ever face overbets?? facing pot odds 7:6??? [/ QUOTE ] I've had it happen many times, and many people have posted about it. Look up "move of honor." See this thread, this thread, this thread, this thread, etc. [ QUOTE ] OPs point was to fold KK as a default [/ QUOTE ] He said it looks like KK loses money when it gets all-in preflop with stacks over about 60 BB. That is very, very different from saying to fold it, for reasons I have already pointed out. [ QUOTE ] a low stakes player WILL NOT be able to seperate the spots where to fold KK from the ones where he shouldn't [/ QUOTE ] Low stakes players aren't allowed to be thinking players? It looks like many are trying. You better go tell them to stop. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] How about Winning overall with KK AIPF? Is that sufficient evidence? I can find you 100 players winning overall with KK aipf. [/ QUOTE ] That statistic is not directly relevant, as I pointed out earlier. That KK is a winning hand overall does not mean you will win on average when you call all-in after a limp-reraise-push. That AA is rare for your opponent to have does not mean it is rare when your opponent 4-bets from early position. That you get called by weak hands does not mean passive players are pushing with weak hands. If you want evidence that calling with KK in some situation is ok, find examples where people (not previously identifiable as maniacs) pushed with less than KK in those situations. Depending on the pot odds, you may need to find one hand worse than KK for every two times you see AA. If it's so obvious that calling all-in with KK is +EV, say at NL $100, it should be easy to find lots of these hands. Instead, people keep posting hands where someone with KK pushes, and someone else makes a bad call. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] As has been discussed many times, you don't need to be 90% convinced that someone has AA to make it right to fold KK. Since you are less of a favorite over plausible worse hands (particularly Ax) than you are an underdog against AA, even a 50% chance that you are up against AA can make it right to fold against an overbet. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree completely, [/ QUOTE ] Then you are wrong. This is a simple mathematical issue. [ QUOTE ] The fact that you are a fav, whether slight or not, over Ax or other hands gives your KK more equity against a villians range. Knowing someone could have a lone A should not sway you more towards folding but in fact the other way. [/ QUOTE ] Adding Ax hands to your opponent's range obviously should make you more eager to call. However, that's not what was being discussed. Replacing QQ with AK in your opponent's range is bad for you. Let's suppose your opponent will only push with AA or AK. You are ahead of 8 hands, and behind 6. However, you are less of a favorite over AK than you are an underdog against AA, which means you are behind your opponent's range. KK has only 47.1% equity against {AK,AA} despite being ahead 57% of the time. It's not as dramatic as having a medium pair against a range of {TT+, AJ+, KQ}, where you are a 4:3 underdog despite being a favorite over 3/4 of the time, but the same logic applies. AA wins 82% against KK. KK wins 74% against {QQ,AK}. If you are up against AA 50% of the time, and {QQ,AK} 50% of the time, then your equity is 46%, and you need about 7:6 pot odds to call, which you don't have against some overbets. My statement was correct. [/ QUOTE ] you sir are a nit and put ur opponent on the same nit ranges |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
well have some view for practice here...
most of those people know that you can create situations where its ok to fold Kings. But answers like yours confuse NL50 players. they do not know math as good as you do and they do not know poker as good as you do so if a NL50 guy asks me: what to do with KK i say: move it, always. sometimes he will make a mistake by calling/moving it. but its better than exlain him some strange situation where its ok to fold and he goes to the table and misinterpret the next situation. 90% of the time its +EV to call KK or shove it. you will have enough FEQ if you shove and have good enough pot odds to call after you've 4bet for 30BB and this covers most of the situation a NL50 player with 50k hands livetime played will encounter so for 100BB you should almost always go all the way, and there are mathematical reasons to it. you can always make up a situation where its ok to fold second nuts but what does the NL50 player care who does tons of mistakes bigger than the 10 bigblinds you loose when you call your kings in the couple of spots its ok to fold. i know that "always" literarly means a 100% and but if you pick the statement apart because you argue that there is some hypothetical situation where a tight player pushes 100BB in your open raise then you are way to much into math... and way to less in an NL50 player's mind! |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
[ QUOTE ]
so now you know why you never fold KK to a push. there is so much dead money in the pot that he needs only a worse hand occasionally... [/ QUOTE ] This is wrong. See the Farha versus Greenstein hand. Farha had about $12,500 in the pot which he followed with about $178,000 more. See the many threads discussing 4-bet shoves, or even earlier pushes. [ QUOTE ] besides: if you fold everything to a push other than aces, there will be people pushing into you with loads of crap... and you will lose A LOT of money. [/ QUOTE ] That is clearly wrong, as I pointed out before on this thread. In all of the situations where I might fold KK preflop, AA makes up a significant portion of my range, so trying to bluff me is an expensive mistake against my range. It really seems you are moving the discussion backwards. You aren't bothering to avoid making statements that have already been refuted. You aren't even bothering to write coherently. Responding to you looks like a waste of time. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
This thread is starting to derail a little bit, for those of you with large NLHE databases I'd still be interested in seeing the generaly threshold where calling with KK because unprofitbale on average at the various levels.
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Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] when do you ever face overbets?? facing pot odds 7:6??? [/ QUOTE ] I've had it happen many times, and many people have posted about it. Look up "move of honor." See this thread, this thread, this thread, this thread, etc. [ QUOTE ] OPs point was to fold KK as a default [/ QUOTE ] He said it looks like KK loses money when it gets all-in preflop with stacks over about 60 BB. That is very, very different from saying to fold it, for reasons I have already pointed out. [ QUOTE ] a low stakes player WILL NOT be able to seperate the spots where to fold KK from the ones where he shouldn't [/ QUOTE ] Low stakes players aren't allowed to be thinking players? It looks like many are trying. You better go tell them to stop. [/ QUOTE ] meh, this is a scenario where having info may be worse than having none. there have been some threads in msnl/hsnl where the consensus was to fold kk pf, but they involved deep stacks and/or pristine reads/history. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
u are taking the farha greenstein thing a little too seriously, the picture was an extreme version of the joke to never fold. No one is advising anything above 100bb.
and gonzo i agree, but how can this kind of statistic be found and put together? Maybe we can get pokey on the job |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
You'd have to filter out everything but KK hands that CALLED preflop, then we'd have to address the $ that you'd find in the pot already. You'd have to separate them by limit, then there's all kinds of things like table image and whatnot, so it's not really easy and would require a lot of data.
On a side note, I think a more useful discussion would relate to AK in this spot rather than KK. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
[ QUOTE ]
90% of the time its +EV to call KK or shove it. you will have enough FEQ if you shove and have good enough pot odds to call after you've 4bet for 30BB and this covers most of the situation a NL50 player with 50k hands livetime played will encounter [/ QUOTE ] Wait, why do we want fold equity with kings? The only hand we want to fold isn't folding. |
Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 90% of the time its +EV to call KK or shove it. you will have enough FEQ if you shove and have good enough pot odds to call after you've 4bet for 30BB and this covers most of the situation a NL50 player with 50k hands livetime played will encounter [/ QUOTE ] Wait, why do we want fold equity with kings? The only hand we want to fold isn't folding. [/ QUOTE ] You wouldn't, unless he or you were short enough where his odds would actually justify calling to suckout, which would be a pretty freak situation if you started with 100bb. |
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