*** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

GB @ DEN

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

ain't gonna bet any fkn MNF again in my life! peace!

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
ain't gonna bet any fkn MNF again in my life! peace!

[/ QUOTE ]

+1000000

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

I will most likely be on GB ML.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

GB +3 2u

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

I like GB +10 and over 36 tease.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

GB just needs to win this game EOS

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

GB 6-2-1 as a road dog ATS during '06 and '07 including 1-0 in '07, granted that one cover was against a struggling giants team who's secondary hadn't really come into their own until just recently. Denver is 1-3 ATS at home this year but their one cover was last week against an improving steelers team who, aside from a few boneheaded plays today, looked pretty good away against the bungles. With all of that being said (which isn't much at all) I just don't see all that much value in any play here. If I had to take a side I like GB +155 at the greek. I don't see this ML moving much higher.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

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I will most likely be on GB ML.

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Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

1u on GB +3.5
1u on GB ML

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

Am I the only one that likes the Broncos here? My reasons for liking them are as follows:
1) Denver is at home.
2) Denver is an AFC team (AFC>NFC)
3) Denver has one of the best Pass Defenses in the NFL vs a pass heavy Green Bay offense.
4) Green Bay is the worst rushing team in the NFL

That is just my 2 cents.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

I like Denver here, they showed they can play last week.. and they are very solid vs the pass/weak vs run. If GB comes in and runs all over them they can win, but I just don't think their run game is developed enough to do it. Denver -3 big bet for me.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

1u on GB ML at +150

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

I was very high on the GB ML before doing a little more research and watching the moneyline at my book drop to +140. Now I'm thinking maybe I bet the under at 43.5

If we just took the number of points each team scores and gives up and did a simple mathematical computation, we would expect 43.25 points in this game. However, I expect that when an offenses strengths match up against a defenses strengths (as with GBs monster passing game and Denver's great passing defense), the advantage tends a little bit toward the defense. Likewise, GB is better at defending the rush while Denver's strength is on the ground (although the disparity is to a much lesser extent).

Anyone else like the u43.5 bet here? I'll definitely be betting this game in some way because I've got a little itch tonight, but it'll probably be for less than a unit. Just dont' feel too strong anywhere right now.

Edit: Javon Walker is out for the Broncos and Henry is questionable, which leans to the under. However, I think the Broncos have a lot of similarly talented players on offense and this isn't as big a deal as it might look. On the other hand, Champ Bailey is also questionable (quad), and he's a big part of the Broncos' great pass defense. Anyone know more than the basic injury report?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

I think that even with Champ Bailey out the Bronco Pass D can slow down the Packers Passing Game. Big Ben is a much more conservative QB that Farve and he still got picked 2 times last week by the Denver D(Champ Bailey sat out last week as well). Green Bay has the worst rushing offense in the NFl; Denver has the worst rushing defense. I think those cancel one another out. I really feel like Green Bay is going to have trouble moving the ball.

I am leaning towards Denver -3 and the under of 43.5

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

I think Denver's pass defense is overrated. Most people are looking at only one number - yardage allowed per game, and yes Denver is 1st in the league in that stat. However, they have had far fewer pass attempts against per game than any other team - only 23.0. Basically, because their run defense is so bad, teams haven't needed to pass much against them. Denver is 30th in QB rating against (99.2), and 31st in completion % against (67.4%). They have allowed 1.8 passing touchdowns per game and only made 1.0 interceptions per game. Going deeper than just the raw yardage shows that this is not really an elite pass defense. Favre will throw it ~40 times tonight and put up some numbers.

I'm on GB +145 for 1u, and leaning towards the over.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

True, but opposing offenses only pass so little because they know they can run so effectively. The Packers can't run so effectively, so they're stuck passing a lot, which the Broncos know.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

This article, from the guy at football outsiders, illustrates just how lucky Denver has been this year. They could easily be 0-6 and the line for this game would be completely different.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3080360

Not stated in the article, but along the same lines - Denver's pythagorean win % (using exponent of 2.37) is .262 so far this year.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

gee whiz golly. Aaron is throwing out stats like one of Disraeli's damn liars. there's far too few instances, and the variation too wide to draw any conclusion from them.

it may be true that denver sucks. but spouting THOSE stats is hardly substantial or substantive proof that they are.

tlt.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

I wonder what tlt's percentages add up to for this game. I set the O/U at 140%.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
True, but opposing offenses only pass so little because they know they can run so effectively. The Packers can't run so effectively, so they're stuck passing a lot, which the Broncos know.

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I'm not sure that the packers can't run effectively. They ran the ball just fine against Chicago.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

Fair enough; if they can run effectively against anyone, it will be against the Broncos. Still, if the Packers are forced to go to the ground to score points, they won't score as many points as they usually do. And if the Broncos are without Henry, or he is hampered by injury, they will score (a little) less than they usually do.

I've decided: GB +3 and the under.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

wtf? I hadn't looked at the line 'til just now. Surprised that Den is favored. Thought this would be a pick due to Den being at home.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

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wtf? I hadn't looked at the line 'til just now. Surprised that Den is favored. Thought this would be a pick due to Den being at home.

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Me too...Perhaps we're both underestimating the Denver HFA?

Either way I'm on GB +3

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

Thank you mogwai for finally stating the obvious. To tlt, he wasn't stating that they sucked as much as pointing out that everyone is saying the reason Denver will cover is because of that Y/G stat, he was just contradicting that statement in order to keep others from relying on it.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

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I'm on GB +145 for 1u, and leaning towards the over.

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Ended up with these plays for tonight:
GB moneyline +145 - risk 1.38u to win 2u
GB over 20 - risk 0.55u to win 0.5u
GB +9 / total over 38 - risk 0.55u to win 0.5u

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

I mean don't get me wrong, I think GB's lack of rushing is going to hurt them as the season goes on, but not against the Denver run D.

And let's look at who they've held to little passing yards:

Jax - 27th in Passing Yards / Game

Oakland - 28th in Passing Yards / Game

Buffalo - 31st in Passing Yards / Game

Indy - Nothing to say here, they only allowed 193 yards
Chargers - 22nd in Passing Yards / Game (Denver allowed 270)

Pit - 21st in Passing Yards / Game (Denver allowed 260)

I am not impressed at all with Denver's passing D and I think Green Bay's 2nd ranked passing game (in yards / game) should be able to pick them apart.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

Ive changed my mind. Teasing Den to +4 and over 36.5. I am not impressed with Den's Pass D, but I'm also not impressed with GB's passing O. GB has less Y/A against weaker competition than Denver does. Check the stats for yourself. However, I like denver, because the GB ML has become to BSP for me to play them. I know, my logic is flawless right? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

champ bailey starting.. YAY.. liking my Denver bet more now.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

GB ML for 2u (+130)
GB +3 / Under 44 parlay for 1u

PS I still dont know how to account properly for GBs [censored] run game but oh well

gogogo favre

Edited for ML odds (gay ass Bodog)

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
champ bailey starting.. YAY.. liking my Denver bet more now.

[/ QUOTE ]

travis henry out tho

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
champ bailey starting.. YAY.. liking my Denver bet more now.

[/ QUOTE ]

travis henry out tho

[/ QUOTE ]

Bah...if anythign I thought this would be reversed. I'd rather have it the other way around for my GB +3 and under bet. Oh well...as long as one team wins 21-20, I'll be a happy guy.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

GB+9/U50.5

DEN -3

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

GB +3 1.1u to win 1u
GB/DEN under 43.5 1.1u to win 1u

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

GB let us goggogogo

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

GREEEEN BAAAYYY----- BULLLLLLLLLLL DOZZZZER

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

Start of 4th quarter, teams need to combine for less than 23 points and GB needs to cover the three points their getting...

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

It's amazing what happened to the total when Cutler fumbled on the 2 in the 1st. The over seemed to be a lock right there. Unbelievable.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

Looks like the refs have the packers and the under along with me.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***
 

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Looks like the refs have the packers and the under along with me.

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my kinda refs