nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($428.45)
MP ($90.95)
CO ($404.65)
Button ($639.80)
SB ($238.85)
Hero ($208.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $8</font>, CO calls $8, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $6.

Flop: ($25) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $17</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $82.95</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $396.65</font>, Hero calls $183.15 (All-In).


CO is drock8d5. seems like a big nit. 18/12. does he ever have KK+ here or do this with a FD

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

Can't fold a set here, I think he can have KK+ here maybe even a draw don't know how aggro he is.
But can't fold this

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

Without previous history/notes, this goes in every time for me. Shove like that I'm guessing you are seeing a combo draw here most often, and I wouldn't put it past him to do this with an overpair....players with these stats often overvalue hands.

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

vs this nit i call every day

im his roommate and he sucks lololol

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

With around 100bbs, I stack myself here.

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

what is with that flop raise. $17 to $83? thats gonna push out a lot of hands that might give you action. given how big your raise was, and his nitty stats, i bet he shows up with the goods almost always. still gotta get your money in, but try a more reasonable raise amount next time.

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
what is with that flop raise. $17 to $83? thats gonna push out a lot of hands that might give you action. given how big your raise was, and his nitty stats, i bet he shows up with the goods almost always. still gotta get your money in, but try a more reasonable raise amount next time.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP wasn't the one who put in the big raise. And definitely don't ever fold this, nits are shoving AcQc in spots like this because they finally found a flop they like.

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

the flop raise to 83 was from the MP guy not our hero

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

Get it in on the flop.

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

Yawn is right

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

note: MP is another player. i am "hero".

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
And definitely don't ever fold this, nits are shoving AcQc in spots like this because they finally found a flop they like.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a good thing. If big clubs and sets are his range then his range's equity slaughters hero's (eg- at the rediculous extreme, AcQc/AcKc/77/TT = 78% equity against 44!!). You need to have him show up with something like KK+ here rather frequently to make this a call. I don't often find nits slowplaying big pairs preflop, though. You get to see his hand regardless of if you fold or call. Take a note. If he does slowplay big pairs preflop then you'll have an easy decision next time a similar situation comes up.

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And definitely don't ever fold this, nits are shoving AcQc in spots like this because they finally found a flop they like.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a good thing. If big clubs and sets are his range then his range's equity slaughters hero's (eg- at the rediculous extreme, AcQc/AcKc/77/TT = 78% equity against 44!!). You need to have him show up with something like KK+ here rather frequently to make this a call. I don't often find nits slowplaying big pairs preflop, though. You get to see his hand regardless of if you fold or call. Take a note. If he does slowplay big pairs preflop then you'll have an easy decision next time a similar situation comes up.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about 8c9c / 5c6c / AcTc / TcXc ...tilt, naked flush draw, misplayed JJ+

You can't fold here with 100BBs you just can't

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

oh geez, im a retard. pay no attention to my post.

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

CO is trying to iso MP so I really can't see him showing up w/ a draw very often if ever. this is TT/77 so often. I could see calling if we know he doesn't always 3 bet JJ+ but I don't think i hate a fold here especially if you think he's a big nit. that said I still don't know if I can fold because people do wierd things from time to time (mike baxter on HSP iso shoving over farha w/ KQ for example).

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

I think you can actually fold here if you have a read.

But "18/12, seems like a nit" isn't a read.

People need to learn to take notes. How hard can it be?

CO could be the type who always slowplays sets. Or the type who thinks that MP is usually FoS here and is trying to protect his QQ vs. your perceived draw. Or all kinds of things. 18/12/nitty just doesn't say a whole lot about how he plays sets, draws, or overpairs, which are the 3 relevant issues.


Since you are opting to play readless, get it in. If you want to start folding bottom set for 100 BBs, start taking better notes.

If he never plays overpairs like this, it's barely a call (if I did my math right, you are calling $183 to win $495, which is pot odds for which you'd need 37%; the fact that there is a side pot is irrelevant because against this range there aren't really many scenarios where you'd win the side but lose the main, or vice versa).

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,831,284 games 0.050 secs 36,625,680 games/sec

Board: Th 7c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.163% 39.16% 00.00% 717177 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 13.386% 13.36% 00.02% 244680 450.00 { TT+, 77, 44, ATs, ATo }
Hand 2: 47.452% 47.43% 00.02% 868527 450.00 { TT, 77, 44, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, KcQc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 8c6c, 6c5c }


So, knowing how he plays overpairs would be a REALLY useful read, don't ya think?

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And definitely don't ever fold this, nits are shoving AcQc in spots like this because they finally found a flop they like.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a good thing. If big clubs and sets are his range then his range's equity slaughters hero's (eg- at the rediculous extreme, AcQc/AcKc/77/TT = 78% equity against 44!!). You need to have him show up with something like KK+ here rather frequently to make this a call. I don't often find nits slowplaying big pairs preflop, though. You get to see his hand regardless of if you fold or call. Take a note. If he does slowplay big pairs preflop then you'll have an easy decision next time a similar situation comes up.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about 8c9c / 5c6c / AcTc / TcXc ...tilt, naked flush draw, misplayed JJ+

You can't fold here with 100BBs you just can't

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're missing the issue here. First off, an 18/12 nit isn't cold calling a short stack on the button with suited connectors. But even if he were, him having 5c6c, 8c9c type stuff in his range doesn't really change the matter. Hero has just about zero equity against 77/TT. Against flush draws, he has about 66% equity. 77/TT are much much more likely than flush draws. Villain needs to have something in his range somewhat frequently that we do well against, to make this a call.

This brings us back to the initial requirement - that villain is frequently cold calling preflop with big pairs. If you have this read and can put KK+ in his range with any level of certainty, then it's an easy call. But most nits do not slowplay big pairs preflop - so you cannot simply assume this is the case.

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And definitely don't ever fold this, nits are shoving AcQc in spots like this because they finally found a flop they like.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a good thing. If big clubs and sets are his range then his range's equity slaughters hero's (eg- at the rediculous extreme, AcQc/AcKc/77/TT = 78% equity against 44!!). You need to have him show up with something like KK+ here rather frequently to make this a call. I don't often find nits slowplaying big pairs preflop, though. You get to see his hand regardless of if you fold or call. Take a note. If he does slowplay big pairs preflop then you'll have an easy decision next time a similar situation comes up.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about 8c9c / 5c6c / AcTc / TcXc ...tilt, naked flush draw, misplayed JJ+

You can't fold here with 100BBs you just can't

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're missing the issue here. First off, an 18/12 nit isn't cold calling a short stack on the button with suited connectors. But even if he were, him having 5c6c, 8c9c type stuff in his range doesn't really change the matter. Hero has just about zero equity against 77/TT. Against flush draws, he has about 66% equity. 77/TT are much much more likely than flush draws. Villain needs to have something in his range somewhat frequently that we do well against, to make this a call.

This brings us back to the initial requirement - that villain is frequently cold calling preflop with big pairs. If you have this read and can put KK+ in his range with any level of certainty, then it's an easy call. But most nits do not slowplay big pairs preflop - so you cannot simply assume this is the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your thoughts about what 18/12s will cold-call with here are very wrong.

An 18/17 would re-raise/fold most SCs here. An 18/12 is cold-calling them almost always, and rarely folding them, unless his his VPiP is very high in position (in which case it must be very low from the blinds/UTG to get down to 18%).

Most 18/12s are a little tighter than TAGs, but not overly so, and limp too much, and call too much from the blinds with speculative hands that they think are easy and profitable to play (i.e. hit-big-or-fold hands), such as SCs and pairs, and only 3-bet premiums from the blinds (hence the VPiP/Pfr gap). It's very common for players with this profile to think that SCs have much greater implied odds than they actually do.

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

Yo, initial raiser is very short.

Even beyond that 18/12 = raising decent aces/pairs in EP, cold calling pairs from any position, cold calling good aces/suited broadyway from most any position and a reasonable-tight mid/late position opening range.

Add cold calling short stacked late position raisers with suited connectors (eg- meaning he's cold calling any raiser with suited connectors) and his VPIP almost certainly goes above 18. Go as low as 56s and one gappers and that VPIP is going well above 18 real fast.

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yo, initial raiser is very short.

Even beyond that 18/12 = raising decent aces/pairs in EP, cold calling pairs from any position, cold calling good aces/suited broadyway from most any position and a reasonable-tight mid/late position opening range.

Add cold calling short stacked late position raisers with suited connectors (eg- meaning he's cold calling any raiser with suited connectors) and his VPIP almost certainly goes above 18. Go as low as 56s and one gappers and that VPIP is going well above 18 real fast.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to Pokerstove, this is 14.2% of hands:

77+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AJo+,KQ o

Eliminate KTs and the A2s-A9s, and you get 11.8% of hands. OH LOOK, what a coincidence, this guy seems to think that 12% of hands are "good" hands and raises them preflop.

This also looks like a lot of what I always see from these guys cold-calling from the blinds with. So my experience + pokerstove lead me to believe that SCs are within his range.

But, I dunno, you could just blindly trust your back-of-the-envelope equations instead.

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

why do you actually call preflop if you cant put your money in when you hit your set?

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

What kind of hands does a 18/12 guy call with position?
Actually it doesn't matter in this hand IMO.
Against a short stack with one suspicious player who donks on the flop behind, do you think he would put 100BB in jeopardy with a 9 high draw (The only 2 reasonable non-made hands are 9c8c or 6c5c, he is only flipping against the shortie)? I put this guy on strictly AcTc, 77. I don't think he would play overpairs in this way. To be honest, OP, we need his AF to make a better decision

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

i think you go broke here. if he has a set then write a note and move on to the next hand

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
why do you actually call preflop if you cant put your money in when you hit your set?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not accurate.

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

set + drawy board + 100bbs = all in no matter what

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

i think bilbo-san is great. he is so agressive and grumpy. and he also usually agrees with me

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

allin shipit

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
set + drawy board + 100bbs = all in no matter what

[/ QUOTE ]

yup

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

Get it in there. Next post please!!!

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

All this talk over 18/12 Hud stats is getting redundant. How many hands is this even over? 20? 40? 100? 400? Because that makes a pretty large difference. I know I have personally run 32/28 at some tables while running 22/18 at others. And...like Bilbo said, you need reads to fold this.

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why do you actually call preflop if you cant put your money in when you hit your set?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yawn is right

[/ QUOTE ]

srsly if u folded we arent friends anymore

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yo, initial raiser is very short.

Even beyond that 18/12 = raising decent aces/pairs in EP, cold calling pairs from any position, cold calling good aces/suited broadyway from most any position and a reasonable-tight mid/late position opening range.

Add cold calling short stacked late position raisers with suited connectors (eg- meaning he's cold calling any raiser with suited connectors) and his VPIP almost certainly goes above 18. Go as low as 56s and one gappers and that VPIP is going well above 18 real fast.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to Pokerstove, this is 14.2% of hands:

77+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AJo+,KQ o

Eliminate KTs and the A2s-A9s, and you get 11.8% of hands. OH LOOK, what a coincidence, this guy seems to think that 12% of hands are "good" hands and raises them preflop.

This also looks like a lot of what I always see from these guys cold-calling from the blinds with. So my experience + pokerstove lead me to believe that SCs are within his range.

But, I dunno, you could just blindly trust your back-of-the-envelope equations instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love you magically start at 77 instead of 22. Not to mention any notion of a reasonable-tight mid/late open (KJ/KT/QJ/QT/etc) A++ argumentative/incorrect post, like always. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yawn is right

[/ QUOTE ]

srsly if u folded we arent friends anymore

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

this thread is 30 something posts too long.



didn't fold..promptly shipped all my chips to 777

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
this thread is 30 something posts too long.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you should not have made it, unless you only did so to make you feel better about a decision you probably felt was wrong when you were making it.

Most people are incapable of ever folding a set and that's perfectly fine. If you NEVER folded a set on the flop against anybody on any board texture, especially not with 100BB stacks, your earn rate wouldn't drop much at all. If you are capable of folding a set for 100BB stacks and are looking for a spot to do so, then this is one.

But like with all big hands, an incorrect fold is a MUCH MUCH bigger mistake than an incorrect call in the long run - since you will be ahead the vast majority of time in the vast majority of situations. Again, making never folding a perfectly legitimate, although unoptimal, option.

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think bilbo-san is great. he is so agressive and grumpy. and he also usually agrees with me

[/ QUOTE ]

Not grumpy. ARROGANT. There's a difference. Bastard.


[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yo, initial raiser is very short.

Even beyond that 18/12 = raising decent aces/pairs in EP, cold calling pairs from any position, cold calling good aces/suited broadyway from most any position and a reasonable-tight mid/late position opening range.

Add cold calling short stacked late position raisers with suited connectors (eg- meaning he's cold calling any raiser with suited connectors) and his VPIP almost certainly goes above 18. Go as low as 56s and one gappers and that VPIP is going well above 18 real fast.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to Pokerstove, this is 14.2% of hands:

77+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AJo+,KQ o

Eliminate KTs and the A2s-A9s, and you get 11.8% of hands. OH LOOK, what a coincidence, this guy seems to think that 12% of hands are "good" hands and raises them preflop.

This also looks like a lot of what I always see from these guys cold-calling from the blinds with. So my experience + pokerstove lead me to believe that SCs are within his range.

But, I dunno, you could just blindly trust your back-of-the-envelope equations instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love you magically start at 77 instead of 22. Not to mention any notion of a reasonable-tight mid/late open (KJ/KT/QJ/QT/etc) A++ argumentative/incorrect post, like always. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Add 22-66, and you get to like 13.5%. Oh yeah, and I DID mention that it depends on his mid/late VPiP (the looser that is, the more positionally aware he is, and the tighter he is from EP to "stay tight" at 18%). I WROTE that, in THIS thread. Are you just ignoring it to piss me off?

Anyway, I was referring to your back-of-the-envelope math:

[ QUOTE ]

Add cold calling short stacked late position raisers with suited connectors (eg- meaning he's cold calling any raiser with suited connectors) and his VPIP almost certainly goes above 18. Go as low as 56s and one gappers and that VPIP is going well above 18 real fast.

[/ QUOTE ]

In actual fact, if you add ALL the one-gappers down to 64s, and remove some offsuit stuff, you are about 18%. 18% in pokerstove includes stuff like ATo, KTo, Q9s and K9s that he likely won't play. Remove that stuff and add all the SCs and one-gappers (down to 6-high) and all the pairs, and it's a pretty damn reasonable estimate of his range. Don't just make [censored] up and tell me it adds up to &gt; 18% "real fast".

Of course I am arrogant and argumentative. That's because you are usually wrong but write as though your opinion is definitive, and offer no factual support. That gets a rise out of me.

My argumentative, arrogant, opinions-disguised-as-statements-of-fact are usually at least backed up by some real math and some stuff worked out from pokerstove.

And furthermore, I don't berate others for being argumentative/arrogant unless I simultaneously pretending that I am not (this post being a case in point).

Re: nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set
 

Wow, so 5 additional pocket pairs now adds 1.5% total?

Wrong.

And now you're claiming he will play suited gappers down to 6 high, but he won't play AT/KJ/JQ/etc.

Dumbfounding.

And you are not arrogant in the tone of your posts. Quite the opposite, you come off insecure and 'attack-like'. Apparently contagious.