Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

I made up a couple rules/guidelines to go by when picking in a survivor league. Obviously there will rarely be a game that satisfies each of these rules, but I think if you try to select games that match most of this criteria, you'll do just fine.

If you want to add your own guidelines or critique my own, feel free.

From most important to least important.

1) DO pick a team that is far better than its opponent(Obviously)
2) Do NOT pick a team that is on the road.
3) Do NOT pick a game that features two rivals/teams that hate each other.
4) Do NOT pick an NFC team over an AFC team unless it's a Top 2-3 NFC team vs a Bottom 2-3 AFC team
5) Do NOT pick a game that features interdivisional opponents
6) Do NOT pick against a team that is coming off a bye week.

I thought there were two games that fit into these guidelines this week, and if you picked either of them, you would have moved on to Week 2.

Thoughts? Most of these were things I gleaned from reading this forum, so while it's probably old news for a lot of you, you still see stuff like "take Philly over GB" or "Jax over Tennessee".

There are other strategies you can use, such as looking several weeks ahead to avoid handcuffing yourself if you're in a league where you can only pick a team once. But I think these 6 are a good starting point.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

Kyro,

Those 6 are my typical thought process when picking as well and great advice. OTOH, I picked Pitt over Clev this week and would like for you to explain why that wasn't the right pick (though results were nice). I agree with the advice above but sometimes some teams just don't have a chance IMO.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

7. Look at Pinnacle.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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Kyro,

Those 6 are my typical thought process when picking as well and great advice. OTOH, I picked Pitt over Clev this week and would like for you to explain why that wasn't the right pick (though results were nice). I agree with the advice above but sometimes some teams just don't have a chance IMO.

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I haven't checked when they play again, but if Pitt @ Clev is such a lock, then Pitt vs Clev should be even a larger lock. That's a very general way to put it, but if a team is a huge favorite on the road, they'll probably be a huge favorite at home against a team of similar talent.

NE over the Jets was probably a "lock" as well, but since they were away, I thought saving them for several weeks down the road when they were at home against a worse team than the Jets was the better move.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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I haven't checked when they play again, but if Pitt @ Clev is such a lock, then Pitt vs Clev should be even a larger lock. That's a very general way to put it, but if a team is a huge favorite on the road, they'll probably be a huge favorite at home against a team of similar talent.

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Valid. I am taking Chicago @ Oakland that week though (if I am still in obv)

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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I haven't checked when they play again, but if Pitt @ Clev is such a lock, then Pitt vs Clev should be even a larger lock. That's a very general way to put it, but if a team is a huge favorite on the road, they'll probably be a huge favorite at home against a team of similar talent.

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Valid. I am taking Chicago @ Oakland that week though (if I am still in obv)

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You think that's stronger than Pitt at home against Cleveland?

Cuz I don't.

It could be a 6-3 victory for the raiders, you never know.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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I haven't checked when they play again, but if Pitt @ Clev is such a lock, then Pitt vs Clev should be even a larger lock. That's a very general way to put it, but if a team is a huge favorite on the road, they'll probably be a huge favorite at home against a team of similar talent.

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Valid. I am taking Chicago @ Oakland that week though (if I am still in obv)

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I wouldn't do this. (because Chicago has KC at home this week, and KC is starting Damon Huard, among other things).

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

Week 7 is going to be a bitch. I'm listing all "possible" picks for each week and giving them a rating between 1-5 stars, and there's one game there I gave 3.5 stars, and nothing else.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

Kyro,

You're leaving out the separation concept which is really the only concept that matters in survivor pools.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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Kyro,

You're leaving out the separation concept which is really the only concept that matters in survivor pools.

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I have never heard of the separation concept. Any chance you could explain it either here or via PM?

I mean, if I'm going to suck at FF, I might as well try to pwn at Survivor.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

week 9 is actually worse. Here's to everyone being knocked out by then.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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7. Look at Pinnacle.

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Agreed. I'd use the "biggest favorite that I havn't yet used" method against OP's method any day.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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Kyro,

You're leaving out the separation concept which is really the only concept that matters in survivor pools.

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I have never heard of the separation concept. Any chance you could explain it either here or via PM?

I mean, if I'm going to suck at FF, I might as well try to pwn at Survivor.

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The separation concept is that you should make picks different from everyone else in your pool whenever possible.

I'd also like to add that looking ahead to week 7 is retarded.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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Kyro,

You're leaving out the separation concept which is really the only concept that matters in survivor pools.

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I have never heard of the separation concept. Any chance you could explain it either here or via PM?

I mean, if I'm going to suck at FF, I might as well try to pwn at Survivor.

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Basically you don't want to pick the same teams as the majority of your your league.

If you are picking outright winners, and 30% of the league is on a 70% favorite. You increase you expectation by picking a 65% fave if there are only a few people on it. You can carry this out to the extremes. Its very similar to winning NCAA pools (since it applies to all pools), you want to choose upsets that not everyone chooses.

The advice you gave is fine, but winning pools is kinda like BJ tournies etc its not about making the play the wins the most often, but that has the highest expectation.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

lastchance, nez,

Well first thing I already took Pitt this weekend.

I also think that the 6-3 comment about the bears/raiders game is a little bit of an exaggeration, what you saw last week was the Bears against the Chargers--not the Raiders.

So on to the future. Would you go with lets say Atl @ Car instead on Week 10 and go with Chi this week? B/c the Atl/Car game looks to be next best at week 10.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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7. Look at Pinnacle.

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Agreed. I'd use the "biggest favorite that I havn't yet used" method against OP's method any day.

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while I'm sure the books are smarter than me in regards to this stuff, I'd rather do my own work on it. Most of the time we're going to pretty much agree, anyways.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

thremp,

Interesting. I'll take that into account from now on. Thanks.

Your concept is pretty high-variance for an event that occurs once a year, though.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

td,

In your shoes, I would plan on taking Car over Atl Week 10, barring Atlanta suddenly becoming good.

Unfortunately, it pretty much handcuffs you into taking SD Week 4, I think.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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The separation concept is that you should make picks different from everyone else in your pool whenever possible.

I'd also like to add that looking ahead to week 7 is fun .

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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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thremp,

Interesting. I'll take that into account from now on. Thanks.

Your concept is pretty high-variance for an event that occurs once a year, though.

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Umm... Your variance comment means exactly nothing. If you take picks that someone else takes you will never win a league. At best you can chop it up. Here I'll do some basic math from my example.

Two outcomes:

1) You go into week two 70% of time with 100 people (We'll assume everyone else wins which is worst case for calcs). Your EV is ~.70
2) You go into week two 65% of the time with 70 people. Your EV is ~.98

Variance isn't really much higher at all. You're out of the pool 7% more often, but have increased your EV 40%.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

yeah, you're right, my bad.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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yeah, you're right, my bad.

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Its okay. The mention of "variance" just usually puts me on tilt.

I really like the way you analyze the lines though. Its similar to what I'd do. Since not all the outcomes are a perfect Bell Curve.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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I'd also like to add that looking ahead to week 7 is retarded.

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This I disagree with. Especially in a large league.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

I still don't see why Jax was a bad pick unless you want to be results oriented.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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I still don't see why Jax was a bad pick unless you want to be results oriented.

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I didn't like it only because AFC South tends to play each other tough in divisional games.

Plus, Vince Young just wins football games. Didn't you hear?

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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I still don't see why Jax was a bad pick unless you want to be results oriented.

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I didn't like it only because AFC South tends to play each other tough in divisional games.

Plus, Vince Young just wins football games. Didn't you hear?

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It was one of the first games I ruled out this past weekend because of the divisional game factor. Plus I couldn't possibly take David Garrard to beat Vince Young, could I?

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

I thought Jax was a solid pick. :'(

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

I think it was.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

Is there a thread for this already? If not, looking for advice on week 2.

I had Seattle in Week 1. Pittsburgh and Chicago seem like the safest picks, but I don't want to go with either quite yet if I don't have to. However, looking down Pitt's schedule, I don't see a great game to pick for quite a few weeks (2 tough home games, a bye, and several road games). Should I just go with them now?

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

One day too late. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

Pitt is my pick this week, but I am in a 30 person league that historically doesn't ever go past week 10, so I don't worry as much about using up teams

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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I thought Jax was a solid pick. :'(

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So did a lot of other people.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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Pitt is my pick this week, but I am in a 30 person league that historically doesn't ever go past week 10, so I don't worry as much about using up teams

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This one is has 20 people left. It's an advertising industry based league, so not super competitive. I'm picking Pittsburgh this week unless I hear otherwise. I think the only teams I'll try and save for tough weeks are New England, Indy, and maybe Chicago depending on if they look better this week.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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I thought there were two games that fit into these guidelines this week, and if you picked either of them, you would have moved on to Week 2.

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What were your two? Seahawks,Vikings, Texans fit your rules IMO.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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Kyro,

You're leaving out the separation concept which is really the only concept that matters in survivor pools.

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I have never heard of the separation concept. Any chance you could explain it either here or via PM?

I mean, if I'm going to suck at FF, I might as well try to pwn at Survivor.

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If you are picking outright winners, and 30% of the league is on a 70% favorite. You increase you expectation by picking a 65% fave if there are only a few people on it.

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I'm confused. Why does it matter if a large portion of the league picks PIT, and you decide to go with CHI instead? Shouldn't you just be picking the team you think will win? I don't know much about Survivor leagues besides trying to pick winners and saving good teams if need be.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

Oh yeah, what about picking against bad teams on the road as a viable option? Say the Raiders for example. Isn't picking against them on the road usually a good choice as long as they are playing any halfway decent team?

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

Jack,

The goal is to win, not survive. And saving teams is usually a v v bad idea.

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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Jack,

The goal is to win, not survive. And saving teams is usually a v v bad idea.

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I don't save teams, but this seperation idea just confuses me. If everyone's picking my #1 choice, why does it matter if I pick my #1 or #2? (assuming early in season; near the end I can understand if it's down to 2 and I can only pick team A and team B and the other guy picks A I might take B to go for the win)

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

Jack, there are 100 players in your league. All 99 other people pick Team A, a 90% favorite. The 2nd biggest favorite, Team B is an 85% favorite.

You should take Team B, DUCY?

Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
 

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Jack, there are 100 players in your league. All 99 other people pick Team A, a 90% favorite. The 2nd biggest favorite, Team B is an 85% favorite.

You should take Team B, DUCY?

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This is why it sucks that my league doesn't show picks until they are locked.