The No Limit Paradigm
 

No Limit Texas Hold Em is a game of small surrenders and large victories. As we all know, it is very difficult to make a strong holding in this game. As a result of this knowledge we should be willing to make many attempts at stealing small pots. Many pots should consist of one strong effort to steal the money in the middle, once called we should usually shutdown and concede the pot.

Since we realize the difficulty of making strong holdings, our pre-flop play should consist around two equally important factors and one less important factor:

1) Type of Hand:

We want hands that have a high expected value postflop. That is, we want a hand that has the potential to make a very strong holding or no holding at all. Examples of these kinds of hands include: 22-JJ/AK/45s-KQs/All Axs

These hands carry high implied odds and have the ability to make very strong holdings such as sets/straights/flushes and full houses.

Hands that carry reverse implied odds should be avoided when calling raises. These hands include: KQo/KJo/K10o/AJo/A10o

The other kind of hand that we should be looking to play are hands that make a pretty strong hand quite often.

Hands that consistently make over pairs greater than 50% of the time include QQ/KK/AA. They can win medium sized pots unimproved and even larger pots some of the time.

The second factor which is of equal important to "hand types," is the difference in skill between you and your opponents.

When comparing pre flop equity edges vs opponents. One can see that most hands are rarely more than a 60-40 dog to most other hands. Therefore, a No Limit player will make most of his profit from his post flop play. The reason for this is two-fold. Because the amount of money being put into the pot pre flop is smaller relative to post flop. And the equity difference in hands post flop are so much larger. It makes sense that being proficient in decisions post flop are more profitable because 1) mistakes are magnified because of the equity disparity in hands and 2) The pot exponentially grows bigger on every street.

The Third Factor which is more or less a subset of the second factor is position.

Everything in poker should be done more in position than out of position. As a general rule, we should be making thinner value bets, more bluffs and 3-betting with a wider range when in position. Conversely, we should be playing more straight forward or "ABC" when out of position. For this reason and this reason alone, the button (the best absolute position possible) should be your most profitable position. Your second most profitable position should theoretically be the CO (cutoff). And your least profitable position should be the blinds, and this is because of two reasons.

1) We are forced to put money in the pot without knowing the strength of our hand
2) We are in the worst absolute position possible

So when you decide to play a hand in No Limit Hold Em always remember three things: the type of hand you have, how good your opposition is and your position throughout the hand.

Re: The No Limit Paradigm
 

Nice post, thanks. It's good to be reminded on occasion that we don't strive to maximize value from our cards, but from our situations.

Re: The No Limit Paradigm
 

Great post. Wouldn't be out of place in the uNL Sticky.

Re: The No Limit Paradigm
 

i was about to make a new post but thought i'd put it here. This is a common situation:

You're sb/bb with AK. button raises. u 3bet. villain calls. you're first to act.






------------------------

villain raises 1.75$
hero reraises to 4.75$
villain calls 3$.
blinds: .75$

pot: 10.25$ - .5$ rake

pot: 9.75$

hero leads 4$.


gets called 60% of the time: -240$
gets folded 40% of the time: +390$

EV: +1.50$

--------------------------------------

villain raises 1.75$
hero reraises to 4.75$
villain calls 3$.
blinds: .75$

pot: 10.25$ - .5$ rake

pot: 9.75$

hero leads 3$.


gets called 60% of the time: -180$
gets folded 40% of the time: +390$

EV: +2.10$


---------------------------------------

villain raises 1.75$
hero reraises to 4.75$
villain calls 3$.
blinds: .75$

pot: 10.25$ - .5$ rake

pot: 9.75$

hero leads 6$.


gets called 60% of the time: -360$
gets folded 40% of the time: +390$

EV: +.30$


------------------------------------


suffice to say, if i've done this right (PLEASE SAY SO) the 3$ bet seems to be the best. it yields 2.1$/per play (on 100 trials).
alas i do not think most villains will fold for a 3$ bet, so 4$ is the next best bet.

This is assuming if ur called, ur check folding turn/river unimproved.
I'd like to see if we can add to this. For example, players having a high steal % this would be very effective against. also, the folds 40% is probably really really low, so if he folds higher than 60% we can bet even less and make more $ in the long run.

Please also note that if you're being cbet into on the flop for 4$, and you RAISE it, here's your new EV!





hero raises 1.75$
villain reraises to 4.75$
hero calls 3$.
blinds: .75$

pot: 10.25$ - .5$ rake

pot: 9.75$

villain leads 4$.
hero raises 9$ more to 13$.

gets called 60% of the time: -780$
gets folded 40% of the time: +550$

EV: -2.30$






hero raises 1.75$
villain reraises to 4.75$
hero calls 3$.
blinds: .75$

pot: 10.25$ - .5$ rake

pot: 9.75$

villain leads 4$.
hero raises 7$ more to 11$.

gets called 60% of the time: -660$
gets folded 40% of the time: +550$

EV: -1.10$







hero raises 1.75$
villain reraises to 4.75$
hero calls 3$.
blinds: .75$

pot: 10.25$ - .5$ rake

pot: 9.75$

villain leads 4$.
hero raises 5$ more to 9$.

gets called 60% of the time: -540$
gets folded 40% of the time: +550$

EV: +0.10$



so as you can see, just holding air (which should be obvious RANDOM HAND vs RANDOM HAND) you shouldn't raise a flop bet unless you know you're good a large majority of the time.

In actuality those call/folding %'s should probably be reversed. folds 60%, calls 40%, but you should know not to be raising a calling station anyway.

Re: The No Limit Paradigm
 

Nice one there, def worth the time reading. Thx

Re: The No Limit Paradigm
 

[ QUOTE ]
So when you decide to play a hand in No Limit Hold Em always remember three things: the type of hand you have, how good your opposition is and your position throughout the hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

QFT. Understanding this is absolutely crucial. This was covered to a word in one of early GP's videos. Just having AQ in SB does not constitue a raise. The only other component he mentioned was history.

Re: The No Limit Paradigm
 

This is a very good post. However, I feel sometimes at 6max the implied odds of hands like 22-66 and J-9 goes down due to their lack showdown value.

Otherwise, its really about Position Position and Position.

Re: The No Limit Paradigm
 

[ QUOTE ]

------------------------

villain raises 1.75$
hero reraises to 4.75$
villain calls 3$.
blinds: .75$

pot: 10.25$ - .5$ rake

pot: 9.75$

hero leads 4$.


gets called 60% of the time: -240$
gets folded 40% of the time: +390$

EV: +1.50$

--------------------------------------

villain raises 1.75$
hero reraises to 4.75$
villain calls 3$.
blinds: .75$

pot: 10.25$ - .5$ rake

pot: 9.75$

hero leads 3$.


gets called 60% of the time: -180$
gets folded 40% of the time: +390$

EV: +2.10$


---------------------------------------

villain raises 1.75$
hero reraises to 4.75$
villain calls 3$.
blinds: .75$

pot: 10.25$ - .5$ rake

pot: 9.75$

hero leads 6$.


gets called 60% of the time: -360$
gets folded 40% of the time: +390$

EV: +.30$


------------------------------------


suffice to say, if i've done this right (PLEASE SAY SO) the 3$ bet seems to be the best. it yields 2.1$/per play (on 100 trials).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but we can do even better!

villain raises $1.75
hero reraises to $4.75
villain calls $3.
blinds: $0.75

pot: $10.25 - $0.50 rake

pot: $9.75

hero leads $0.25.


gets called 60% of the time: -$15
gets folded 40% of the time: +$390

EV: +$3.75!

Even better, we could three-bet to $24.75 preflop and then bet $0.25 on the flop. When villain calls 60% of the time we still lose $15 but when he folds 40% of the time we now win $1980, for a net win of $19.65 per hand!

See, there's a problem with your assumption: when you change your bet size (as a fraction of the pot) you also change your opponent's calling range. A smaller bet gets called more often, so the $3 bet won't have the same folding and calling ratios as the $6 bet. Which bet is EV-maximizing will depend on the specific flavor of opponent you're facing; trying to mathematically optimize this in a vaccuum is very hard, and your assumption of constant folding equity is so terribly wrong that it leads you to horribly incorrect and expensive conclusions. Don't put faith in this theory because it will lead you astray.

Re: The No Limit Paradigm
 

[ QUOTE ]

Even better, we could three-bet to $24.75 preflop and then bet $0.25 on the flop. When villain calls 60% of the time we still lose $15 but when he folds 40% of the time we now win $1980, for a net win of $19.65 per hand!

See, there's a problem with your assumption: when you change your bet size (as a fraction of the pot) you also change your opponent's calling range. A smaller bet gets called more often, so the $3 bet won't have the same folding and calling ratios as the $6 bet. Which bet is EV-maximizing will depend on the specific flavor of opponent you're facing; trying to mathematically optimize this in a vaccuum is very hard, and your assumption of constant folding equity is so terribly wrong that it leads you to horribly incorrect and expensive conclusions. Don't put faith in this theory because it will lead you astray.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol thank you for summarizing this, i was just about to.

Re: The No Limit Paradigm
 

Lol meleader - that's nice math - wtf are you talking about? I'm probably being leveled. I hope so anyway.

Re: The No Limit Paradigm
 

I think this post is excellent but there was one thing I wanted to query:

[ QUOTE ]
We want hands that have a high expected value postflop. That is, we want a hand that has the potential to make a very strong holding or no holding at all. Examples of these kinds of hands include: 22-JJ/AK/45s-KQs/All Axs

These hands carry high implied odds and have the ability to make very strong holdings such as sets/straights/flushes and full houses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not every hand can make a straight or a flush but every hand can make the nuts. The reason you play one hand over another is that some hands can make far more combinations of strong hands than others. For example, 72o can make the nuts on a 772 board (or a 777 board or a 222 board) and no other, but hands like 87s T9s can make a huge number of mid to nut strength hands (ie hands which you will happily felt) on many boards. I know that you know what I mean, but just for clarity, a big part of choosing a starting hand is its flexibility, as well as other factors like deception, draw strength etc etc.

Re: The No Limit Paradigm
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think this post is excellent but there was one thing I wanted to query:

[ QUOTE ]
We want hands that have a high expected value postflop. That is, we want a hand that has the potential to make a very strong holding or no holding at all. Examples of these kinds of hands include: 22-JJ/AK/45s-KQs/All Axs

These hands carry high implied odds and have the ability to make very strong holdings such as sets/straights/flushes and full houses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not every hand can make a straight or a flush but every hand can make the nuts. The reason you play one hand over another is that some hands can make far more combinations of strong hands than others. For example, 72o can make the nuts on a 772 board (or a 777 board or a 222 board) and no other, but hands like 87s T9s can make a huge number of mid to nut strength hands (ie hands which you will happily felt) on many boards. I know that you know what I mean, but just for clarity, a big part of choosing a starting hand is its flexibility, as well as other factors like deception, draw strength etc etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the best way of describing hand strength in medium/deep-stacked NL is how well it will extract value postflop. By value I mean getting worse hands to call and better hands to fold. That is very generic, but that's the real idea, imo.

Re: The No Limit Paradigm
 

[ QUOTE ]
No Limit Texas Hold Em is a game of small surrenders and large victories. As we all know, it is very difficult to make a strong holding in this game. As a result of this knowledge we should be willing to make many attempts at stealing small pots. Many pots should consist of one strong effort to steal the money in the middle, once called we should usually shutdown and concede the pot.

Since we realize the difficulty of making strong holdings, our pre-flop play should consist around two equally important factors and one less important factor:

1) Type of Hand:

We want hands that have a high expected value postflop. That is, we want a hand that has the potential to make a very strong holding or no holding at all. Examples of these kinds of hands include: 22-JJ/AK/45s-KQs/All Axs

These hands carry high implied odds and have the ability to make very strong holdings such as sets/straights/flushes and full houses.

Hands that carry reverse implied odds should be avoided when calling raises. These hands include: KQo/KJo/K10o/AJo/A10o

The other kind of hand that we should be looking to play are hands that make a pretty strong hand quite often.

Hands that consistently make over pairs greater than 50% of the time include QQ/KK/AA. They can win medium sized pots unimproved and even larger pots some of the time.

The second factor which is of equal important to "hand types," is the difference in skill between you and your opponents.

When comparing pre flop equity edges vs opponents. One can see that most hands are rarely more than a 60-40 dog to most other hands. Therefore, a No Limit player will make most of his profit from his post flop play. The reason for this is two-fold. Because the amount of money being put into the pot pre flop is smaller relative to post flop. And the equity difference in hands post flop are so much larger. It makes sense that being proficient in decisions post flop are more profitable because 1) mistakes are magnified because of the equity disparity in hands and 2) The pot exponentially grows bigger on every street.

The Third Factor which is more or less a subset of the second factor is position.

Everything in poker should be done more in position than out of position. As a general rule, we should be making thinner value bets, more bluffs and 3-betting with a wider range when in position. Conversely, we should be playing more straight forward or "ABC" when out of position. For this reason and this reason alone, the button (the best absolute position possible) should be your most profitable position. Your second most profitable position should theoretically be the CO (cutoff). And your least profitable position should be the blinds, and this is because of two reasons.

1) We are forced to put money in the pot without knowing the strength of our hand
2) We are in the worst absolute position possible

So when you decide to play a hand in No Limit Hold Em always remember three things: the type of hand you have, how good your opposition is and your position throughout the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

In most cases, these are all VERY valid points and its good to be reminded of these things, although I think most fairly good players know this intuitively.

However, I think people OFTEN grossly underestimate how important your opposition is when considering your action to a preflop raise with a marginal holding (AJ, KQ, KJ type hands). With these types of hands, the nature of the opposition can make any actio between insta-folding and insta- 3 betting acceptable. One thing I think we all get in the habit of when playing 700 hands an hour is to not bother with situations we deem to be very marginal. However, I have been making a bigger effort to isolate super-aggros (30/20/10 type players) with marginal hands when I'm in position, and have noticed that I can often seta trap against them with KQ or KJ as if it was AK or AQ because they have such a weak range. That is, even though my hand is weaker, there average hand will also be weaker, so the relative strength of my hand (equity advantage) stays the same.

Re: The No Limit Paradigm
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think this post is excellent but there was one thing I wanted to query:

[ QUOTE ]
We want hands that have a high expected value postflop. That is, we want a hand that has the potential to make a very strong holding or no holding at all. Examples of these kinds of hands include: 22-JJ/AK/45s-KQs/All Axs

These hands carry high implied odds and have the ability to make very strong holdings such as sets/straights/flushes and full houses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not every hand can make a straight or a flush but every hand can make the nuts. The reason you play one hand over another is that some hands can make far more combinations of strong hands than others. For example, 72o can make the nuts on a 772 board (or a 777 board or a 222 board) and no other, but hands like 87s T9s can make a huge number of mid to nut strength hands (ie hands which you will happily felt) on many boards. I know that you know what I mean, but just for clarity, a big part of choosing a starting hand is its flexibility, as well as other factors like deception, draw strength etc etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah good point. I was a bit too vague and should have stated that the reason we choose those hands over hands like 72o is the likelihood that we will make a strong holding is higher. Any hand can make a flush/straight/trips/full house but the odds of making them with a weak hand is lower.