Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

There has been alot of speculation on how the legislation will impact the number of players on each site/network... Time to start reviewing the facts...

http://img124.imageshack.us/img124/7...tes1013fd3.jpg


Raw data sourced from PokerSiteScout , with permission.

Data represents the 24 hour peak Active Real Money Ring Game seats, at each site/network.

As discussed in the Party Lockdown thread, it may take a while for any player shift to show up in the stats.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

it looks good for online poker , only a small dip (mostly from party)...its not looking good for party tho ...

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

There's a slight problem with your comparison, in that you're comparing a Friday to other weekdays. Weekends (Friday-Sunday) have lower peaks than weekdays.

Here's what I posted in another thread.

[ QUOTE ]

Total peak players for the last 5 Fridays:

Date -- Players

9/8 -- 60254
9/15 -- 59293
9/22 -- 59514
9/29 -- 60250 (Fristy Friday, the bill is passed)
10/6 -- 54594
10/13 -- 52313

We're only down about 13% from pre-ban levels, but there's a lot more realignment to come.


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

Scout,

Regarding those Friday figures, yesterday included 10 hours or so from midnight to 10a of US players playing on party didn't it? So next Friday's figure would seem to be the best barometer yet of the numbers for both party and overall wouldn't it? Also since party has taken the step of only allowing 6 tables per player now to curtail all the canadians and euros who played more, there should be a further drop in table & player figures it would seem come next Friday.

Also I would like to ask you whether your policy is to only include a new site in your tracking by their request or not. I was wondering if some smaller sites just didn't want it known how small they were and purposefully avoid trying to have comparisons made?

BTW, great site you've got and keep up the good work.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

Thanks scout... I'm aware that there is a day of week bias, which is why I plan to update this thread for a while, and why I put in the Sept max 24h peaks for comparison/baseline.

However, at the moment, the impact (both positive and negative) on individual poker sites is clearly not as great, as many predicted... we will see how this plays out in the days/weeks ahead...

As you said... "there's alot more realignment to come"...

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Regarding those Friday figures, yesterday included 10 hours or so from midnight to 10a of US players playing on party didn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Bluff,

Scout's days are based on a west coast day... so technically 3a-10a ET were included... however, the Party 24h peak was hit at 2:03pm PT... so it is solid.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

Yeah yesterday is a bad example. Use today's data with past Saturdays for something more accurate -- then again in about a week to see where most of the fishies have settled in at.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

a daily updated graph with a moving 7-day average might be the the easiest...

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

Sniper, is the September 24h Peak a specific day in Sept, or the highest volume in any contiguous 24 hours in the entire month?

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

I would give it at least a few weeks before trying to gauge the effect on sites that didn't close to the US, between cashouts/transfers, people getting accustomed to new software, and people who didn't know at first that other sites were staying open.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

very true. but there's a big downswing for Party/Paradise and a well notable upswing for Full Tilt which are quite visible already.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

have we confirmed that Absolute has purchased and will be merging with UB?

If so that sets them up to be a major player in the post party world

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sniper, is the September 24h Peak a specific day in Sept, or the highest volume in any contiguous 24 hours in the entire month?

[/ QUOTE ]

The Sept 24h peak, represents the max 24h peak at each individual poker site for the month of September... so, the Sept total is not a great (but still ok) baseline when compared to other totals, but it a great baseline for each of the individual sites, imo.

It is worth noting that aside from a day of the week bias, poker sites also have seasonal/monthly traffic patterns...

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Regarding those Friday figures, yesterday included 10 hours or so from midnight to 10a of US players playing on party didn't it? So next Friday's figure would seem to be the best barometer yet of the numbers for both party and overall wouldn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]
As Sniper noted, the peak data from Friday is solid because Party was up and running well before peak Euro time.

A better barometer would be a 7-day average taken about 10-14 days from now, after people have had a chance to react and hopefully find new sites to play at. Compare that to a 7-day average from September and you'd have a good idea of the change in the overall size of the market.

[ QUOTE ]
Also I would like to ask you whether your policy is to only include a new site in your tracking by their request or not. I was wondering if some smaller sites just didn't want it known how small they were and purposefully avoid trying to have comparisons made?

[/ QUOTE ]
No site has ever objected to our coverage, at least not to us. Some have actually approached us asking to be added. We'll usually make a deal with the smaller sites to get them on the list.

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, great site you've got and keep up the good work.

[/ QUOTE ]
TYVM. There are many more things we'd like to do with the site, so it will continue to improve over time.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
a daily updated graph with a moving 7-day average might be the the easiest...

[/ QUOTE ]

If I can get a graph to show something better than a big block of lines stacked between 1K-3K, I'll post a graph once we have some more data...

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
have we confirmed that Absolute has purchased and will be merging with UB?

If so that sets them up to be a major player in the post party world

[/ QUOTE ]

As I understand it, there have been discussions, but no confirmation on a deal...

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
have we confirmed that Absolute has purchased and will be merging with UB?

If so that sets them up to be a major player in the post party world

[/ QUOTE ]

As I understand it, there have been discussions, but no confirmation on a deal...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the first I've heard of this...any link?

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

What happened to the reports that Party would lose roughly 80% of their player base when the U.S. got blocked? It seems to me that rumors of Party's imminent demise were greatly exaggerated. No doubt, Party's taken a huge hit and they'll never be #1 again unless they re-enter the U.S. market, but they've been sitting comfortably in 2nd place for the past 2 days and their peak numbers are still roughly half of what they were pre-ban.

It will certainly take time to see the upswing at Stars and FullTilt, but Party's numbers won't be dropping any further than they are now, unless non-U.S. players voluntarily start leaving. But with Party still sitting as the #2 poker site out there, I don't see a mass exodus happening. It's certainly not the doomsday scenario some were predicting, where they would lose 80% of their business instantly and the rest would bail out shortly thereafter due to poor game selection.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
have we confirmed that Absolute has purchased and will be merging with UB?

If so that sets them up to be a major player in the post party world

[/ QUOTE ]

As I understand it, there have been discussions, but no confirmation on a deal...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the first I've heard of this...any link?

[/ QUOTE ]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post7653363

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
What happened to the reports that Party would lose roughly 80% of their player base when the U.S. got blocked? It seems to me that rumors of Party's imminent demise were greatly exaggerated. No doubt, Party's taken a huge hit and they'll never be #1 again unless they re-enter the U.S. market, but they've been sitting comfortably in 2nd place for the past 2 days and their peak numbers are still roughly half of what they were pre-ban.

[/ QUOTE ]


They've gone from a peak of 16K earlier in the year to 6.5K now, which is a 60% loss. While that is distorted somewhat no doubt by the figures varying during the year for all sites with the seasons, nonetheless they seem to have lost around 1/2 their player base at least, even though that still leaves them in 2nd place.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

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http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post7653363

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There is no real information concerning AP in this link. Excapsa was purchased by the parent of bet21.com, one of its own skins.

I call BS on the UB-AP merger until someone produces an actual source.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
What happened to the reports that Party would lose roughly 80% of their player base when the U.S. got blocked?

[/ QUOTE ]
80% was revenue, not poker players. Perhaps the biggest hit will be in other games.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

They may not have been able to promote their casino and other games businesses to europe like they did with poker, so they might indeed have been even more top-heavy with US customers there.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What happened to the reports that Party would lose roughly 80% of their player base when the U.S. got blocked?

[/ QUOTE ]
80% was revenue, not poker players. Perhaps the biggest hit will be in other games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stellar... the mass of US players were spending less than $20/night on MTT donkfests [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post7653363

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There is no real information concerning AP in this link. Excapsa was purchased by the parent of bet21.com, one of its own skins.

I call BS on the UB-AP merger until someone produces an actual source.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct, a possible UB-AP merger is a seperate issue from that announcement.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

AP/UB talk was just an error, not even a rumor, as far as I can tell. No one's cited a source yet. BlastOff/Bet21 bought Exapsa's assets.

Re the small rooms, I believe Poker.com is the largest not covered by PokerSiteScout. It's just smaller than WPEX. Mansion is close too.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

Party's got a good European base that will keep that number around 5-6 thousand every day during European hours. During American hours, it hit up to 13k, so if you imagine that there are about 20k people cycling around max times, about 1/3 of their base is European (and Canadaian of course).

So yea, they immediately lost 66% of their base, even though the numbers dropped only by about 40%.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

These number show the peak and not the average.

Suppose Jimmy's Poker Shack has 10 players during U.S. prime time and 5 players during European prime time. After Jimmy pulls out he still has 5 players during Euro prime but 0 players during U.S. prime time.

PokerSiteScout would tell you that Jimmy's peak has dropped by 50%. That's true, but it is equally true that Jimmy has actually lost 2/3 of his business.

PokerSiteScout 24-hour maximums are always going to overrate the size of Euro-centric sites compared to sites with successful worldwide diversification. It's the nature of the method. It's why networks like Tain that have no actual players rank so highly [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

PokerSiteScout would be much more useful if it published average traffic statistics and ranked accordingly. For example add up 24 hourly measurements taken during a day and divide by 24.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
PokerSiteScout would be much more useful if it published average traffic statistics and ranked accordingly. For example add up 24 hourly measurements taken during a day and divide by 24.

[/ QUOTE ]

It might be even more useful if you could see both peak US-time and peak Euro-time traffic.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

Judging by the number of posts I've seen the last couple of days saying "I can't play more", "Ohhh Nooo", "We are Done","Where do we go",it looks like the overall volume of traffic will be down quite a bit, Some people think to come to forums like this and ask what the deal is but I'd say for every one that does theres at least 10 that won't be playing any more because either they are scared and or think it is no longer possible for them to play.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/4...s101406at8.jpg

Raw data sourced from PokerSiteScout , with permission.

Daily data represents the 24 hour peak Active Real Money Ring Game seats, at each site/network.
Sept Peak represents the max peak at each site across the entire month of September.
Change: Day of Week difference from last week (ie Sat vs Sat last week)
Color Coding: Green(+) and Red(-) represents increase or decrease from previous day
Also added 7 day avg, and a few more days
Sites sorted by 7 day avg

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
PokerSiteScout would be much more useful if it published average traffic statistics and ranked accordingly. For example add up 24 hourly measurements taken during a day and divide by 24.


[/ QUOTE ]

Stellar, I agree with this... it would be great if Scout stored all the raw data and could calculate a daily average traffic based on all the data points collected (supposedly its polling data every 10 minutes).

Scout, is it possible for you to enhance the site with this info?

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post7653363

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There is no real information concerning AP in this link. Excapsa was purchased by the parent of bet21.com, one of its own skins.

I call BS on the UB-AP merger until someone produces an actual source.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK.. clarification that Blast Off = AP

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PokerSiteScout would be much more useful if it published average traffic statistics and ranked accordingly. For example add up 24 hourly measurements taken during a day and divide by 24.


[/ QUOTE ]

Stellar, I agree with this... it would be great if Scout stored all the raw data and could calculate a daily average traffic based on all the data points collected (supposedly its polling data every 10 minutes).

Scout, is it possible for you to enhance the site with this info?

[/ QUOTE ]
We're planning to add a column to the homepage for a 7-day moving average. Look for it in the not-too-distant future.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PokerSiteScout would be much more useful if it published average traffic statistics and ranked accordingly. For example add up 24 hourly measurements taken during a day and divide by 24.


[/ QUOTE ]

Stellar, I agree with this... it would be great if Scout stored all the raw data and could calculate a daily average traffic based on all the data points collected (supposedly its polling data every 10 minutes).

Scout, is it possible for you to enhance the site with this info?

[/ QUOTE ]
We're planning to add a column to the homepage for a 7-day moving average. Look for it in the not-too-distant future.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Scout, I think that will be a great addition... any thought to also adding a average of each days data points?

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

(This is only the top 15 sites, I'm not bothering tracking the others too carefully)

http://www.esreality.com/files/inlin...%20October.JPG

http://www.esreality.com/files/inlin...Oct%2015th.JPG

All of this is from PokerSiteScout

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

[ QUOTE ]

PokerSiteScout 24-hour maximums are always going to overrate the size of Euro-centric sites compared to sites with successful worldwide diversification. It's the nature of the method. It's why networks like Tain that have no actual players rank so highly [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, when Tribeca announced they were taking over Tain, I started paying more attention to them and noticed they have a very stable player base throughout the day compared to sites ranked above them, like Crypto, Microgaming, etc. Add in the Tain players and the simple fact that they're the only real choice for U.S.-facing skins that want to switch networks (unless Excapsa starts taking U.S. skins again and treats them reasonably this time), and Tribeca could be the company that benefits the most from the UIGEA situation.

Another thing I noticed was that traffic dropped across the board over friday and saturday, but everyone except OnGame increased their peak on sunday. OnGame continues to plummet and Paradise will again since they're still peaking during U.S. hours right now.

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

http://img262.imageshack.us/img262/1...s101506qu7.jpg

Raw data sourced from PokerSiteScout , with permission.

Daily data represents the 24 hour peak Active Real Money Ring Game seats, at each site/network.
Sept Peak represents the max peak at each site across the entire month of September.
Change: Day of Week difference from last week (ie Sat vs Sat last week)
Color Coding: Green(+) and Red(-) represents increase or decrease from previous day
Including 7 day avg, and 8 days rolling
Sites sorted by 7 day avg

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

Sciolist... any chance we can get you to reveal some rough generic info on the change in tournament traffic at Stars?

Thanks for posting the graphs...

Re: Official Poker Site/Network Tracking thread
 

Sniper,

In a few days or weeks from now, after the pre-ban party numbers fall out of a 1 or 2 week moving average, the real results will be known. The moving average in your spreadsheet for party understates how many player that they have lost.