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-   -   This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long) (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=530723)

2handed 10-24-2007 11:25 PM

This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
We all know that PLO is a higher variance game than almost any other form of poker. To compensate for this we play with bigger rolls, typically at least double what nlhe players use. While moving up past 100PLO I employed at least 40 BI's as my standard bankroll. This has always been adequate, until this month when everything has collapsed on me. I have lost roughly 40,000 dollars in the last 3 weeks.

I began taking PLO seriously at the end of March of this year. Previously I had primarily been a holdem player live, and an O8 player online. My main live games were 2-5 NL and 15-30 and 20-40 limit. Online I had a few months prior busted what remained of my roll after withdrawals to play live. I had begun dabbling in PLO earlier, and started reading this forum to pick up strategy. After a bad run live, I decide to try and grind my way up from 6max 25PLO online.

I deposited 200 dollars, and after working it up to a 1000 playing exclusively 25plo on FTP I moved up to 50PLO. I played at this level for quite awhile, and conservatively began to take shots at 100PLO when my roll got to around 3k.
After this limit I never played with less than 40 BI's. At 100 PLO I took my first 20BI downswing and a got taste of the variance in this game, especially playing an aggro 6max style. Fortunately my roll was over 4k at that time so I was able to sustain the losses. At this time I was playing about four tables at once, probably averaging 3hours a day on weekdays and maybe double that on weekends. The only thing limiting the time I put into omaha was my obligations to school, and these sometimes took a backseat to poker.

I got my roll up to 10k or so by beginning of the summer and started handily beating 200plo. I took a break in June to travel in Europe for about six weeks, leaving myself 8k to play with when I got back, and budgeted everything else for the trip, about 6k or so. I had a great time, and played some live PLO in Spain which was a lot of fun.

Upon returning home to the USA, I resumed playing. I went on a huge tear through the whole month of August. I was incredibly focused on poker and was playing my A game almost always. I ran the 8k I had up to over 50k playing first 1/2, and then moving up to 2/4 and 3/6. I felt great, I was playing great, and running great. In this time I had a few big setbacks, but nothing that really messed with my head or seriously threatened my roll. I took a serious shot before I went back to school at 5-10 plo and lost about 8k.

I had a similar setback near the beginning of school, but had a monster week afterwards winning 25k playing 2/4, 3/6
and crushing the 30/60 and 50/100 o8 games. I also dabbled in online LHE and did well. At the end of September, I was really on top of stuff. I bought great furniture and all sorts of gadgets and for my apartment, including a flatscreen, a nintendo wii, a new sick dual screen computer, rugs, a nice grill, and few other things. After all the spending, (I probably spent well over 10k in september), I still had 60k left for poker.

Then October started. I took another shot at permanently moving to 5/10, playing all the games running on FTP. I started playing 6 or more tables at once and playing different games. I was cocky and took on any opposition, my game selection was bad and played HU too much, i took a few small losses after initially winning, but then the big drop started.

On oct 3rd I lost over 15k in a combination of 5/10 plo and 50/100 O8. I played all night, and finally dragged myself away at sunrise. I couldnt believe how much I had let myself lose that night. I took a break for a week after this session to recoup. I still had over 40k liquid and was not too worried, just figured I needed to move down for awhile.

I came back strong after a week off, and made 6k in two sessions, mostly at 2/4 with a table of 3/6 thrown in.
Over the weekend I gave it all back however, and struggled the whole next week. I felt like I played decently, I just couldnt make anything happen. The games felt tougher, and my hands didnt consistenly hold up. After playing about 12k hands at 2/4 in two weeks I had lost 2k.

I had been planning a trip to Vegas for the past month, and went last weekend bringing 7500 with me. I had hoped to turn things around live, but this was just not in the cards. I played the 10/20 NL at the Bellagio, and got busted for about 2500 when I went all in with the nut straight versus two pair on the turn. He rivered the boat. I got another 2k out of the ATM and moved to 100-200 limit, and bought in for 7k. I was pretty happy with my play, but once again ran bad and played too long, and lost all but 500 of the 7k. I played all night and felt like I had an edge even when it got shorthanded around 5 am. I dont remember ever making a flush or a straight all night.
I had a surprisingly fun trip after this loss, ironically winning 2k back at craps and blackjack. I lost another thousand playing lower stakes poker however. I drank quite a bit and partied with some fine women and was able to shake off much of the pain of losing.

Upon getting back to school I have dropped another 10k in 2 days, 20 buyins at 2/4 and 10 BI's at 1/2. This last run has been the worst I have ever experience, running as bad i ever have and not playing my A game. I guess I am going to take another break now, but my confidence in my ability to win has been shaken, and I am down to my last 15k or so. Any advice on how to recover or get myself back in line and winning would be appreciated. I still feel like I am good player, and I attribute these losses to some lapses in my play, starting to want to gamble to much and chase losses, and playing too long and too many tables. I have busted my online roll and the dollar amounts I have gambled with and lost nag at me, as well as some of the bad decisions I have made.

Just writing this has helped my clarify some things and remember how lucky I have been in the past. I was wondering if anyone has had a similar experience to mine.

To those of you just starting in this game, be aware of the psychological difficulties this game can wreak on even a serious and over-rolled player.

Good Luck

Big Dave D 10-24-2007 11:38 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
"I don't mean to seem like a prick..."

Having criticised that style in another post, I'm tempted to start off on the same tack. Anyway, although this has undoubtedly caused you some distress, this post should be in BBV.

gl

bdd

cmyr 10-24-2007 11:55 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
i always wondered who michaelsc was. (prob. not right, i haven't been datamining at all this month, but he's a player who vaguely fits your description)

2handed 10-24-2007 11:56 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
i didnt think i would get any good advice there on dealing with PLO variance. I know other posters here have had runs like this and wont just write omahahah or whatever

2handed 10-24-2007 11:58 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
id rather the mods just delete it if the OP is that innappropriate.

2handed 10-25-2007 12:04 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
I'm not michaelsc

Big Dave D 10-25-2007 12:04 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
There is no advice. This is Omaha. To badly mangle Godfather II: "This is the business we have chosen." You ran hot. Then you ran cold. Almost no one on here has had experience of that to the extent you're talking about, because normally they just stop posting. The only way you get used to winning and losing big numbers is to win and lose big numbers.

gl

bdd
---

"In the silence of space, no one can hear you scream."

Troll_Inc 10-25-2007 12:12 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
I got some advice for you and anyone else that will cure you of your mental problems associated with playing stakes high enough to support yourself.

1. Cash out what you have left.

2. Tomorrow go look for a regular job.

3. By the time you get bored of looking for, or working at, a normal job you'll have a clear head and be able to come back and play well. And you will have gained some perspective on your situation.

2handed 10-25-2007 12:18 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
troll i actually like that, cheered me up a bit

Rob121 10-25-2007 12:49 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
yeah i agree with troll. I had a really bad down swing, felt like [censored], got a hard working job and started playing again and started right off where I was at before the downswing.

RoundTower 10-25-2007 03:16 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
[ QUOTE ]
There is no advice. This is Omaha. To badly mangle Godfather II: "This is the business we have chosen." You ran hot. Then you ran cold. Almost no one on here has had experience of that to the extent you're talking about, because normally they just stop posting. The only way you get used to winning and losing big numbers is to win and lose big numbers

[/ QUOTE ]
holla

wazz 10-25-2007 03:18 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
jobs pfft

i feel your pain, man, i'm on a 11 buyin downswing live over 10 days/20 hours of play, and even though I'm winning small online, you know that it can and will get much much worse in this game. Deal with it, remember the good times, and be sure to remember these times when you're running hot so that you bank/invest some of your hard-earned dough. And when I say invest, I don't mean poker.

Elrazor 10-25-2007 06:15 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
[ QUOTE ]
By the time you get bored of looking for, or working at, a normal job you'll have a clear head and be able to come back and play well. And you will have gained some perspective on your situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
be sure to remember these times when you're running hot so that you bank/invest some of your hard-earned dough. And when I say invest, I don't mean poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

i cant add anything to either of these, great advice

NickyC 10-25-2007 09:15 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
Wow, these are the kind of Omaha stories I'll never understand. I've been playing Omaha online for about the past 6 months or so, generally at the 1/2 level or 2/4 level such as yourself. I never have more than 10 buyins at a site, and I haven't had to reload in the entire 6 months. You must play some crazy agressive style to be losing that sort of money. Admittedly I'm a nit, a nut peddler to the extreme, but I don't think I've ever lost more than 4 buyins in an entire week at PLO. I only play 1 table at a time however, sometimes 2, and play maybe 12-14 hours per week. To lose that many buyins in such a short amount of time, I cannot believe anything other than you chasing your losses hardcore and consistently getting it in with the worst when you KNOW you have it in with the worst. This crap I always hear about high variance, my hands never hold up, etc. etc. is just crap to me. When I lose an all in at this game, 70-80% of the time it's because I screwed up somewhere and butchered the hand. I checked my top set on the flop, I raised all in with a stupid ace high flush draw when my opponent has a set, etc. etc. Of course there are bad beats in this game, but I just cannot believe that you can lose that sum of money at 1/2 and 2/4 in such a short amount of time unless you are playing awful.
I am of course a nit and I'm happy to just grind out $500 a week for extra spending money because I'm an attorney. I never take shots at games bigger than 2/4, because being a nut peddler I'm sure I'll get run over by better players that can see through that. However, what I think is happening here is that you're moving down in limits to gain your confidence back, and you're making moves against solid players like me that always have the goods if we're playing back at you. You're in that downward spiral that winning higher limit players get into when they start losing, and my best advice is to take an extended break. Nothing but time off is going to stop this free fall.

Also, don't post your poker screen name on here whatever you do. ;P

CrushinFelt 10-25-2007 10:01 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
[ QUOTE ]
Upon returning home to the USA, I resumed playing. I went on a huge tear through the whole month of August. I was incredibly focused on poker and was playing my A game almost always. I ran the 8k I had up to over 50k playing first 1/2, and then moving up to 2/4 and 3/6. I felt great, I was playing great, and running great.

[/ QUOTE ]

8k -> 50k in a month at those stakes playing 3 or so hours per day? lol you were running siiiiick hot

Runner Runner 10-25-2007 10:10 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
My experience is similar to that of NickyC. I have been playing 1/2 (occaisonally 2/4) PLO for 2 years now on Party and Full Tilt and have never had more then a 6 buyin drop. The variance is high in PLO, but you can get your money in so good that it doesn't really matter. Of course, you can also push smaller edges to maximize win rate, but the downside is the increased variance and how you deal with that psychologically.

Whatever style you play, don't tilt and above all else, practice good game selection.

RoundTower 10-25-2007 10:18 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
in my last 73k hands, over all stakes, I have had 9 downswings of 10 buyins or more. The biggest was 26 buyins.

RoundTower 10-25-2007 10:23 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
I was going to add to that "and I don't play a particularly swingy style" but I checked in PTO and my SD/100 is 559 ptBB. That's not normal, right? I think there may be something wrong with my PTO.

JanelleBB7 10-25-2007 10:41 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
[img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] lost 40K - OMG.... sorry to hear that... Yeah I get upset sometimes when I just lose some profit let alone lose that much. You probably need a break.. a long break... how is ultra tilt not possible when you take that kind of hit?

This is the kind of STORY that scares the crap out of me!

I really hope this doesn't happen to me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

Sorry that it happened to you.

How about this suggestion if you can't stay away from playing a game, play much lower stakes than you are accustomed to until you feel comfortable again. Or can really deal with huge variance like this. You do sound like an ultra agressive player and that works well ( i think) at the lower stakes tables where you can handle a lot of variance.

Good Luck [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

CrushinFelt 10-25-2007 12:23 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
[ QUOTE ]
I was going to add to that "and I don't play a particularly swingy style" but I checked in PTO and my SD/100 is 559 ptBB. That's not normal, right? I think there may be something wrong with my PTO.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol wtf RT, I think most people on here were 90-110 ish...

Big Dave D 10-25-2007 12:31 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
Wow, 6 months. At one table at a time. Some guys here play more hands in a couple of weeks. It was because I knew we would get responses like yours and Runner Runner that I rather harshly asked for this post to go to BBV. Sigh.

gl

bdd

alavet 10-25-2007 12:33 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
i think you def. should take a vacation

its nice to get vacation after 10k lost with such bankroll i think, at least for a week
i dont seem i'd do that but its the only way to prevent tilt
probably you think you hvnt ever tilted but you did

and
lotsaluck man

EatMoPie 10-25-2007 12:36 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
Graph?

Flip-Flop 10-25-2007 01:22 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
The only strange part of your post is the last downswing of 20BIs in 2 days at 2/4 since this is the stake that you`ve been beating like a drum and probably it is your most successful stake you`ve played at.

The only explanation is that you`ve been playing very bad (possibly under major tilt) coupled with running bad.

So yeah I`m gonna have to agree with the rest that somewhat extended break is needed for you atm.

The best solution by far (if possible) is taking a vacation.
Two weeks relaxing and/or partying on some sandy beach payed with poker winnings charges up your battery, makes you appreciate life and most importantly makes you appreciate your A-game and trust me... you WILL play your A-game again when you get back home.

I like taking a "summer" vacation at least 3 times a year.
Very therapeutic.

pete fabrizio 10-25-2007 01:39 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
[ QUOTE ]
I was going to add to that "and I don't play a particularly swingy style" but I checked in PTO and my SD/100 is 559 ptBB. That's not normal, right? I think there may be something wrong with my PTO.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, that number is impossible, so either something is wrong or you're looking at the wrong number.

Troll_Inc 10-25-2007 05:59 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
[ QUOTE ]
I was going to add to that "and I don't play a particularly swingy style" but I checked in PTO and my SD/100 is 559 ptBB. That's not normal, right? I think there may be something wrong with my PTO.

[/ QUOTE ]

As pete said, I don't think that is possible.

I'm sure you know how to check yourself in Excel?

New pokertracker instructions for download of Omaha hand results from
Pokertracker Omaha to Excel.


Here are some instructions I put together:

1. Open pokertracker
2 Select [Game Notes] tab
3. Select [Get All] button on the right side of the screen.
4. Select [p] button on the left side

5. Once the new window opens, select the [Export...] button at bottom right
6. Deslect all but #1 Level, and #15 BB
7. Hit [Browse..]
8. File name: type "Nitty Irish Donkey"
9. Hit [OK]
10. Hit [Export]

Open file in Excel

and in a open cell, type "=stdev(B2:B75000)" and hit Enter.

Note: there's an Excel limit so you might have to just look at x# of
hands instead of 72,000. (I know 60,000 work)

bigmac366 10-25-2007 07:03 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By the time you get bored of looking for, or working at, a normal job you'll have a clear head and be able to come back and play well. And you will have gained some perspective on your situation.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



[/ QUOTE ]

this is such an enormous help its not even funny. 2 weeks ago i lost 300 big bets playing shorthanded limit holdem, (a high variance game in and of itself). i cashed out, redeposited at i different site about 8 days when the check arrived, started playing about 2 levels lower and played/ ran great. give it a try

LA_Price 10-25-2007 07:42 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
Despite the fact the poster has more than when he started a wealth point reached from below is never the same as falling from above.

I'd read a good book, like say Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

2handed 10-26-2007 02:03 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
Thanks for the replies. I do not think I have been on major tilt, and I am going to get some players I respect to sweat me in order to help plug the leaks. I have not been playing my A game, but I have also been running worse than I ever thought possible. I have played more PLO in the last six months than all but a few posters on this forum, literally hundreds of thousands of hands. Unfortunately they are on three different comps and I dont have Pokertracker on my laptop which I use for FTP where i played most, so I am not posting a graph.

During my upswing from 8k to 50k I was averaging eight hours a day crushingfelt, not three. The time it took me to make this money is what is bugging me the most. I still have a five figure plus bankroll, but this massive loss makes me realize how much time I have poured into this game, and how much going broke would hurt.

My present plan is to take at least a week off and then resume playing at 100plo with a 100+ buyin roll, and not move up until I win both 20 buyins and log 10k hands.

If you are an aggressive player that plays more than 4 tables at limits higher 1/2, these downswing will happen and 40 buyins for a player like me might just not be enough. I killed these games for months on end, I know I play well and still I have gotten smashed endlessly. I have lost my last 10 sessions or so and am frustrated as hell.

jbird 10-26-2007 10:44 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
[ QUOTE ]
Wow, these are the kind of Omaha stories I'll never understand. I've been playing Omaha online for about the past 6 months or so, generally at the 1/2 level or 2/4 level such as yourself. I never have more than 10 buyins at a site, and I haven't had to reload in the entire 6 months. You must play some crazy agressive style to be losing that sort of money.

[/ QUOTE ]

earlier this month I lost 8 buyins in 2 hands as a 99% favorite.

[censored] happens. it will sooner or later happen to you too. if you don't think that it will or if you aren't properly bankrolled for it you will go broke. end of story.

Runner Runner 10-26-2007 11:47 AM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow, these are the kind of Omaha stories I'll never understand. I've been playing Omaha online for about the past 6 months or so, generally at the 1/2 level or 2/4 level such as yourself. I never have more than 10 buyins at a site, and I haven't had to reload in the entire 6 months. You must play some crazy agressive style to be losing that sort of money.

[/ QUOTE ]

earlier this month I lost 8 buyins in 2 hands as a 99% favorite.

[censored] happens. it will sooner or later happen to you too. if you don't think that it will or if you aren't properly bankrolled for it you will go broke. end of story.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is impossible to lose 8 buyins in 2 hands if you don't play more then 2 buyins deep, which I am pretty sure is the case with him.

roggles 10-26-2007 12:23 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
The more hands you play, the more likely it is to run into a downswing. And as the sample size increases, the probability of not having a downswing in it approaches 0. How is this hard to understand?

RoundTower 10-26-2007 12:36 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
I found out I was including these hands where I took a shot at a new level. I couldn't handle the swings.

http://i52.photobucket.com/albums/g3...r/microlol.jpg

pete fabrizio 10-26-2007 01:24 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
[ QUOTE ]
I found out I was including these hands where I took a shot at a new level. I couldn't handle the swings.

http://i52.photobucket.com/albums/g3...r/microlol.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

What's with the 6 hands you folded? grimming?

jbird 10-26-2007 03:08 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
holy [censored] you run good!

cmyr 10-26-2007 03:30 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
yeah that's pretty impressive. was somebody dumping to you?

CorvusMonedula 10-26-2007 04:27 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
That's a joke right? You can't possibly do that!

sc000t 10-26-2007 04:29 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
Just takes a table of 9 people flipping all in for an hour or so. Its actually pretty fun.

Troll_Inc 10-26-2007 05:06 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I found out I was including these hands where I took a shot at a new level. I couldn't handle the swings.

http://i52.photobucket.com/albums/g3...r/microlol.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

What's with the 6 hands you folded? grimming?

[/ QUOTE ]

You never played a 2+2/donkey game with Roundtower have you?

pete fabrizio 10-26-2007 05:59 PM

Re: This game is killing me right now like I cannot believe (long)
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I found out I was including these hands where I took a shot at a new level. I couldn't handle the swings.

http://i52.photobucket.com/albums/g3...r/microlol.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

What's with the 6 hands you folded? grimming?

[/ QUOTE ]

You never played a 2+2/donkey game with Roundtower have you?

[/ QUOTE ]

What, he cheats at flippaments?


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