Does any street make sense?
 

Bay101 20/40

I have K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in BB.

Loose raiser opens UTG. This means AT/A9+, KJ/KT+, probably 66+ ish range. Probably wouldn't open Q high here.

Folded to button loose-passive-fish who cold calls, I call in BB.

Flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Checked to UTG who bets, fish calls, I check-raise because I'm ahead of most of UTG's hands and I don't think button has an A. UTG 3-bets, fish calls, I call.

Turn is K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I check, UTG bets, button raises. I look at UTG who looks genuinely concerned. I just call, because if I raise I get 2 more BB out of button, if I just call I have a chance to milk an extra BB out of UTG and then 2 more from fish on river for a total of 3 BB. And in the rare event UTG actually has AK and button has 88 or something, I can potentially save monies.

UTG folds.

River is A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I bet...

Does any street make sense here?

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

lol, nope, except preflop is okay.

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

hey BBB, if you're going to post in our forum can you go for quality instead of quantity?

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

brick - ?


i think his pf play is fine.

i think the flop play is bad because we're rarely ahead, and a raise will fold out utg's worse hands (like if he's cbetting pocket pairs queens and lower or something, which doesn't seem super likely). that same raise will get us owned by both players' better hands, but then we call anyway(?), i guess because the pot is large and some percentage of the time when we hit another K or maybe a Q we'll be good.

on the turn we hit one of our outs, but really only pull ahead of aq/aj. we're still crushed by aa/kk/ak/88 and at some point i would assume these other guys won't keep betting and raising without something approaching that level of strength, right? i would either lead out the turn or check/3bet it (which might be bad if it gets capped and the river blanks off - i'm not sure). i guess i don't find coldcalling to be awful but if the river blanks off, how much action can we safely put in? it leaves us not knowing where we are in the hand.

on the river, we beat absolutely nothing (except 88), yet for some reason decide to lead out anyway? so i disagree with that play as well. only aces full or better will raise us, and we don't give worse hands (again, this isn't very likely) the chance to make a desperation bet/bluff or something.

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

thanks for putting some time and description into you post. we appreciate it.

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

Here's what was going through my head, you may disagree --

[ QUOTE ]

i think the flop play is bad because we're rarely ahead, and a raise will fold out utg's worse hands (like if he's cbetting pocket pairs queens and lower or something, which doesn't seem super likely).

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The c/r was kind of laggy, but with the wide range of UTG's possible hands, I felt I was ahead of most of them. But I'm not sure what the superior action is. Bet flop? Most likley outcome is 1 or 2 calls or a raise, and then I don't know what this means. C/c flop and then c/f turn?

I disagree that UTG couldn't have QQ/JJ/etc., because around here 90% of players c-bet the flop. I mean, he raised preflop, and the flop comes AKx, that's the perfect flop for him to bet everything!

[ QUOTE ]

i would either lead out the turn or check/3bet it (which might be bad if it gets capped and the river blanks off - i'm not sure). i guess i don't find coldcalling to be awful but if the river blanks off, how much action can we safely put in? it leaves us not knowing where we are in the hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

I really didn't want to see the turn get capped, and by just cold-calling I can judge UTG's action. I also mentioned the potential extra BB this way too. My plan was to c/r/fold almost every river. But then the Ace popped...

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on the river, we beat absolutely nothing (except 88), yet for some reason decide to lead out anyway? so i disagree with that play as well.

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On the river, we are only beat by an Ace, and this looks pretty unlikely for button based on turn play. Turn play the most likely hands for button are Kx, 88 and AK. River I plan to check-call, so I felt betting was superior because we might get a crying call from 88 and might (big stretch) get a K to fold. So we're basically free-rolling.

I'm basically representing some kind of Ace in this hand, maybe even A8.

I agree that every postflop action seems kind of backwards, that's why I posted this hand with my thoughts.

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

If button is a "lose passive fish", does he really raise the turn without a K or an A? It's a protected pot; if he's bluffing, he has to get through you and the original raiser.

In this context, what does our river lead accomplish? Seems like we're splitting this most of the time and losing the remainder, though I suppose occasionally he'll have 88 here and will pay us off. Loose passive fish are not known for intelligent, bet-saving river folds for a single bet, so I don't see him folding a king, and since it sounds like you're giving him little possibility of holding an A, I suppose we're calling a raise? I guess I don't have enough confidence in our read of him to bet/fold, but that's what you are implying by leading.

Cap'n, I enjoy reading your posts and think you have a great feel for the game (and reading your stuff always makes me curious to know if we've played together), so maybe your description of the button is missing some context or other important details?

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

CC river. Turn is fine. The flop I don't like CR. I don't think your equity is positive. If you have a read, fine, but just based on the hand ranges, it's not good.

I gave the button some eights, kings, and aces he could reasonably have, as well as some gutshots, and a couple slowplaying hands, like A8, and 88.

I gave UTG the same PF range u gave him. Your flop equity sucks.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,052,037 games 93.485 secs 32,647 games/sec

Board: As Kh 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.691% 22.38% 02.31% 683113 70579.50 { KsQc }
Hand 1: 39.484% 36.94% 02.55% 1127569 77680.50 { 66+, A9s+, KTs+, A9o+, KTo+ }
Hand 2: 35.825% 33.64% 02.19% 1026788 66792.00 { 88, A9s-A2s, KJs-K6s, QTs+, Q8s, JTs, J8s, T8s, A8o-A7o, KJo-K9o }


---

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bay101 20/40

I have K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in BB.

Loose raiser opens UTG. This means AT/A9+, KJ/KT+, probably 66+ ish range. Probably wouldn't open Q high here.

Folded to button loose-passive-fish who cold calls, I call in BB.

Flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Checked to UTG who bets, fish calls, I check-raise because I'm ahead of most of UTG's hands and I don't think button has an A. UTG 3-bets, fish calls, I call.

Turn is K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I check, UTG bets, button raises. I look at UTG who looks genuinely concerned. I just call, because if I raise I get 2 more BB out of button, if I just call I have a chance to milk an extra BB out of UTG and then 2 more from fish on river for a total of 3 BB. And in the rare event UTG actually has AK and button has 88 or something, I can potentially save monies.

UTG folds.

River is A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I bet...

Does any street make sense here?

[/ QUOTE ]

even if the 3rd player weren't in and we knew UTG was firing 100% of his PF range, we would still be an equity dog


111,870 games 0.005 secs 22,374,000 games/sec

Board: As Kh 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.587% 43.69% 03.90% 48873 4363.00 { KsQc }
Hand 1: 52.413% 48.51% 03.90% 54271 4363.00 { 66+, A9s+, KTs+, A9o+, KTo+ }

Add that to the fact that we are giving him every opportunity to play perfect against us by CRing, and your CR becomes even worse. So yeah, flop CR = nonono

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

yeah even if you were a slight favorite against his range, you shouldn't c/r the flop. Just because "you're ahead" doesn't mean that you should fire away. What's going to happen when you c/r? He's gonna fold two outers and continue with hands that you beat.

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

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He's gonna fold two outers and continue with hands that beat you.

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Re: Does any street make sense?
 

Yes, I played every postflop street in a weird fashion. SOP is:

1. c/c flop. As Snowball shows, c/r is bad.
2. c/3-bet turn.
3. c/c river.

I think river though is a straightforward b/f line though. There's no hand that makes any sense for button to have an Ace in it except AK. I mean, it went preflop raise, c/r/3-bet on flop and this guy suddenly goes nuts on the turn with an Ace? With 6 of the Aces/Kings accounted for, he has only one combination of AK. Since I'm going to c/c the river, I think a b/f is better, especially since the way I've played it looks like I could have an Ace (c/r flop). I dunno, I've folded out a King before on a board of AAKKx before when I had a King.

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

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Cap'n, I enjoy reading your posts and think you have a great feel for the game (and reading your stuff always makes me curious to know if we've played together), so maybe your description of the button is missing some context or other important details?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, no, no other read or context. Basically the only hand I could put button on that has an Ace is AK, and I'm going to call, so it's better to bet. I don't have a problem bet folding rivers against most of the loose-passive Bay101 players, I did it twice today!

Anyway, we may have played together, I don't know, but I pretty much only play at Bay101 between 11-3ish on weekdays.

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

[ QUOTE ]
but I pretty much only play at Bay101 between 11-3ish on weekdays.

[/ QUOTE ]

Night hours or day hours? I thought you had a day job. Either you're playing while you're supposed to be working, or you're staying up awfully late for work the next morning.

Anyhow, I'm on hiatus until I finish my test next week Wednesday. I'll see if I can bump into you then.

Garland

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

ok, I lost focus and stopped reading responses. This is attrocious. Spell that correctly. I DARE YOU!!!! WTF are you thinking on the flop?!?!?!? First of all, you start out saying "UTG is kinda laggy" and then describe a perfect TAG's opening standards for UTG. Fine, excepting A9, and ATo for 10-handed tables, which really isn't that bad. Then you flop a flop and decide that KQ is TEH NUTZ!!!!! because there is a king on board and button only called. So you raise. WTF?!?!?!?! What good becomes of this raise, noob? You hit your miracle card on the turn and then you check... WTF???? UTG bets, and button raises. At this point you're thinking, "hrm. I'm probably winning, but I shouldn't 3bet...." Ok, whatever. You're reasoning sucks, but you made the right decision. The river is an ace and you bet..... !!!!!! !!!!!! WTF!?!?!? Are you hoping for a crying call from 88? Are you hoping to fold out pot splitting kings!>!>!??? Jesus, man, check/call this river like a pro, and ship the pot to.... well, who knows, either 50/50 you/him or 100/0 him/you.

I'm going to try to be as clear about this as possible. I'm not going to mince any words.

YOU ARE BAD AT POKER.

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

oh, PF is fine. You can fold if you're feeling nitty, but a call here is fine.

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

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I suppose occasionally he'll have 88 here and will pay us off. Loose passive fish are not known for intelligent, bet-saving river folds for a single bet, so I don't see him folding a king,

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LOL!!! Just how stupid do you think fish are???

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I suppose occasionally he'll have 88 here and will pay us off. Loose passive fish are not known for intelligent, bet-saving river folds for a single bet, so I don't see him folding a king,

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LOL!!! Just how stupid do you think fish are???

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i'm not saying i agree with the river bet but i see people call with 88 here all the time.

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

[ QUOTE ]

I'm going to try to be as clear about this as possible. I'm not going to mince any words.

YOU ARE BAD AT POKER.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok this hand is an abomination true

im not sure spewing insults is really productive tho

and the Captain has had some good ideas in the past, so i think we should give him a mulligan

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

YOU ARE BAD AT POKER.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok this hand is an abomination true

im not sure spewing insults is really productive tho


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Hahaha, that's OK. When I post, I usually pick some hand where I take an unusual line, so I'm half-expecting someone to tell me I'm a total idiot. I've been taking unusual lines lately as experiments to see if there's any value in them. I still like this river bet/fold, even if the rest of 2+2 thinks I'm crazy.


From CSC:

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hrm. I'm probably winning, but I shouldn't 3bet...." Ok, whatever. You're reasoning sucks, but you made the right decision.

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I'm not sure what you're trying to convey here. Are you saying I made the right decision in just calling the turn raise? If so, I'm curious as to what the right reasoning is if mine is wrong.

Or are you saying I made the right decision (in a results-oriented fashion) because the Ace popped on the river?

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

Capt, the question is, what are you trying to accomplish on the river? Earlier in the thread you mentioned possibly folding out the button's king. I just don't think this is a realistic expectation.

You don't 3bet the turn for the same reason you don't raise the flop - no good can come of it. On the turn, I'd say the most likely hand the button has is AQ/AJ, though of course 88, and the remaining king in the deck are also possible. If you 3bet, you put yourself on a range of hands of which KQ exists at the lower end. While you'll now be getting called down by KT, this is true, you're folding out their most likely holdings - aces. Additionally, just calling here will not prevent KT from betting the unseen river.

Re: Does any street make sense?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Capt, the question is, what are you trying to accomplish on the river?

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If I'm willing to bet/fold (and I am in this hand), then I think a bet/fold is basically freerolling. By check-calling, button can play optimally against me. He will bet an Ace, he may bet a King, and he will check 88. So I either lose 1 BB or I break-even.

If I bet, I either break-even, lose 1 BB (in the same K/A situations) or I gain some +EV if villain calls with 88 > 0% of the time or folds a K > 0% of the time. So it's higher EV.

Basically, not betting lets opponent play optimally against me. Betting will lose the same amount when behind, but can induce mistakes when ahead or tied.

This is sorta similar to betting like the 3rd/4th nut flush (on a 4-flush board) against a HU opponent on the river OOP. But it's an even better bet because there is pretty much no chance I can induce the button to bluff on the river in this case -- he has a made hand, and we can narrow it down to Ax, Kx, or 88. It's also better than the 4-flush scenario because there's no chance he's going to check a better hand or bet a worse hand when we check in this case.

I dunno, when I write my book "Playing Poker the Pirate way (without the raping and pillaging)" , I'm going to put this hand in the Blimey River quiz and you guys are all going to score a big fat ZERO on the test. Even if you guys are right and I'm wrong. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Results:
<font color="white">UTG folds ATo faceup on the turn. I bet river and button looks disgusted and calls with K5. </font>