Flopping set
 

I have a question about the chance that you will flop a set.
The chance is 1 in 8 times avg. 13%.
But when I look at my pokertracker stats, I notice that the higher my pair is, the more profit I make with it. I know this probably has also to do with overpair value, but I was wondering;
Do middle pair holdings flop a set more regulary because people often fold low cards, and play their high cards.

So I figure high pairs hit sets less frequently cause of the higher chance people holding the same picture. And a low pair hits also less because most people fold those.
So middle pair hits more?

Does this make sense? Thx

Re: Flopping set
 

What rubbish. There is equal chance that your opponents pick up low cards /middle cards or high cards. And it doesn´t matter at all whether they play them or throw them in the muck.

Higher pairs simply make more money because there is less chance that somebody pairs an overcard.

Re: Flopping set
 

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Higher pairs simply make more money because there is less chance that somebody pairs an overcard.

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Re: Flopping set
 

Gabethebabe - excellent - 4th post and already calling another post rubbish!! Welcome to the arrogant club!

Re: Flopping set
 

Sinnerman: Interesting thought at first glance, but you've got to remember that whether or not the other players have held onto their cards or mucked them, they are gone and unavailable to hit on your draw in either case - so low or mid pairs are not more likely to make a set. They can make you more money on occasion as when they do hit, as the card making your set is less often seen as a scare card on the flop or later streets...and a well disguised set is a beautiful thing :-)

Re: Flopping set
 

I find its easier to get more money into the pot when I'm holding a low set simply because somebody could have an overpair and think they're ahead.

Obviouly you have to be cautious and be reliant on some read and knowledge of your opponents play but I wouldn't be completely surprised if lower sets yielded more profit per hands won than higher sets.

But then higher sets would win more often...

Re: Flopping set
 

I don't know about you guys but there are many players who peel off "one" more card. -EVVVVVVVV I always pay them off tho [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Flopping set
 

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Gabethebabe - excellent - 4th post and already calling another post rubbish!! Welcome to the arrogant club!

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Re: Flopping set
 

[ QUOTE ]
Gabethebabe - excellent - 4th post and already calling another post rubbish!! Welcome to the arrogant club!

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Awesome! Can I run for president of this club?

Re: Flopping set
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Gabethebabe - excellent - 4th post and already calling another post rubbish!! Welcome to the arrogant club!

[/ QUOTE ]
Awesome! Can I run for president of this club?

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It's you club do what ever you want.

Re: Flopping set
 

@OP: no

Re: Flopping set
 

Another reason is when the dreaded set over set happens. The higher the pair is the less likely it will be for someone to get that higher set. Not that it happens very often but when it happens on the flop your stacked.

Re: Flopping set
 

I still say that Gabe is right on the reason (though presented it a bit rudely maybe).

Re: Flopping set
 

Not everyone is skilled at teamwork and isn't that what this site is all about? Brainstroming and trying to learn something new? The question above makes me think of another.

If I'm late with a small PP (lets say 55), BB has been limp called by many players, how does this effect the likelyhood all my 5's are live?

Is it different if there is an early raiser, one caller and the action is to me?

Is it different if there is a standard preflop raise, several callers and the action is to me.

These can all be calling situations with the right effective chip stacks. However are all the situations equal as it relates to the odds of flopping a set? Obviously more players means more action after the flop if you catch your set. However, does the action preflop imply and increase or decrease in the odds of all the 5's being live in the deck?

Would lots of limpers indicate lots of suited connectors and 1 gappers or lots of hands like KJ, T-Q, A-T and etc.

Another way to ask a similar question is this, what kinds of cards are most likely out of the deck based on the action preflop?

For example if your at a table with 5 rock squeezers calling a raise in front of you, you can probably accurately assume many of the big cards are out in peoples hands. A pair of 10's in the hole "could" have more chance of developing into a winner than a pair of jacks or queens.

Anbody following me?

I remember a 30 player live MMT at my local club. A loose player who tended to go AI preflop with any ace-9 or better moved AI, 3 decent players all made agonizing calls. I felt pretty sure the 3 callers had nice aces. I looked down to find QQ, Called AI. When the hands were all turned up there were two AK, and AQ and one A9 donkey hand right where I expected to see it. In this case the action and the kind of players and their history told me they were probably all painting each other and that is exactly what I saw when the hands were turned up. Of course, I quadrupled up. Certainly there have been other times I've laid down QQ and even KK preflop if the action told me they were no good and I have made the mistake of calling when I was obviously beaten.

I put the question to you all, how does the action effect the likely hood of all my 5's being live?

Dave