Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

So Al-Jazeera is reporting.....

[ QUOTE ]
The sources were quoted as saying that Israeli F-15 and F-16 jets provided cover for the US planes.

The sources added that each US plane carried one tactical nuclear weapon and that the site was hit by one bomb and was totally destroyed.



[/ QUOTE ]

So I look at the linked story and notice the photo in the lower right of the page....

http://a.abcnews.com/images/Internat..._071026_ms.jpg

and think "I've seen that kind of crater before."

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...djusted%29.jpg

At Nagasaki.

Edit: here is the Nagasaki Crater without the Ground Zero Marker. Note the shape of the hypocenter and the shadows.

http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/AAF/...fects-p10b.jpg

Discuss.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

I really don't buy this. Between satellites and seismographs, you can't detonate a nuclear weapon anywhere on earth without people noticing.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

Al-Jazeera is usually right.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

I'm kind of skeptical, too. There are perhaps conventional weapons that will do this sort of damage.

A nuclear reactor is steal and concrete and uranium. From a conventional weapon, I would expect there to be lots of debris. If you could find a higher resolution image, I might be able to identify something. But, it looks like there is nothing but complete atomization at the site. No debris at all.

I have been to both Hiroshima and Nagasaki, however, and the image of the site struck me as being remarkably similar.

As for satellites and seismographs, I think the Isreali's have a strong corner on that market in that part of the world. It will be interesting to see if this develops and what data from Europe shows.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

Is that a level?

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
So Al-Jazeera is reporting.....

[ QUOTE ]
The sources were quoted as saying that Israeli F-15 and F-16 jets provided cover for the US planes.

The sources added that each US plane carried one tactical nuclear weapon and that the site was hit by one bomb and was totally destroyed.



[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

(total speculation and talking out of my ass)

Could be a daisy-cutter?

Then again, tactical nukes can be pretty small. It might be difficult to tell the difference between a tiny tac nuke and a daisy cutter from seismographs etc.

If Israeli jets really provided cover, I would guess that the delivery plane was something big and slow-moving, which would imply daisy-cutter over tac nuke, wouldn't it?

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If Israeli jets really provided cover, I would guess that the delivery plane was something big and slow-moving, which would imply daisy-cutter over tac nuke, wouldn't it?


[/ QUOTE ]

A C-130 is needed to carry a MOAB.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...2/MOABAFAM.JPG
That's pretty slow.

A B-52 is usually the kind of vehicle certified to carry tactical nukes. They are vulernable at low altitude, which would increase the accuracy.

I seem to recall an incident recently where a B-52 was carrying tactical nukes over US airspace in violation of a treaty.....

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

What an odd situation.

I totally doubt this is true. But I guess we'll find out soon enough. Like Iron said, it's tough to nuke people without people noticing.

Not that the US/Israelis wouldn't be willing to nuke countries if they could get away with it, but what are the odds they attempt such a thing if there's a chance Al-Jazeera (lol) catches them. I would think US and Israeli intelligence knows pretty damn well what Al-Jazeera is capable of, and it's way more likely this is just made up. But who knows I guess.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

Exsub, you have military experience. What are your thoughts on the likelihood?

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

If we were really going to make a secret nuclear strike, it would definately be either a B-2 or a cruise missile, those weapons have a reasonable chance to make it to their target undetected. If it were a B-52, it would be lighting up radars in Kuwait.

However, no one has the market on seismographs and satellites cornered. There are literally dozens of seismographs around the world capable of picking up a blast. However, since there is no obvious crater, a nuclear strike would have been an air burst. I find it hard to believe that we wouldn't have heard reports from either a neutral nation (wild guess, there are maybe a dozen countries flying satellites capable of detecting the blast) or reports from civilians in the area that they saw a mushroom cloud. Also, I think it would be to Syria's advantage to say if they were attacked with nuclear weapons, it would get them a lot of sympathy.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

Alleged Syrian Site:

http://a.abcnews.com/images/Internat..._071026_ms.jpg

Nagasaki:

http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/AAF/...fects-p10b.jpg

My problem is with the scale. See those rings on the Nagasaki picture? That first one is 1000 feet away from isocenter.

There is not a scale on the Syria photo, but the damage is very similar. On the Nagasaki picture you can see buildings that are partially leveled at the 1000 feet mark.

On the Syria photo, you can also see a partially leveled building that has debris scattered away from the center crater. I don't know if that is a crater, it's hard to see details on such a small image. I saw another image that suggested the hole to be more square, so I can't say for sure.

We know that Nagasaki was about 11 Kilotons. That's about as low a yeild as you are going to get from a tactical nuke, as well. There is a suggestion on the syria photo of pretty uniform destruction within a certain radius. The two photos are not to the same scale, either. Note the 45 degree structure on the right side. It seems closer to the center in the after image than the before image. Maybe there is rubble in the same shape in the second image, though. There also seems to be evidence of a blast wave rolling down the hills in all directions and at least partially burying the land features apparent in the first photo. Then again, the sun is also at a different angle.

Hard to say. I doubt anyone is going to let anything get out that is more detailed than what we have.

Is it possible?

Yes.

Can't say for sure.

One thing, though. This is an isolated site. If someone wanted to send a message to someone else through a proxy state, this certainly fits the bill.

There is another possiblity, however. That is, an accidental detonation of something on the ground. I don't even want to think about what that means.

Edit: here is a news story from shortly after the alleged incident. The photos suggest the hole in the middle of the picture to be more square.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

If it were a nuke then there would be easily detected radioisotopes released into the atmosphere. No way to keep it hidden. This has to be a MOAB.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If we were really going to make a secret nuclear strike, it would definately be either a B-2 or a cruise missile, those weapons have a reasonable chance to make it to their target undetected. If it were a B-52, it would be lighting up radars in Kuwait.

However, no one has the market on seismographs and satellites cornered. There are literally dozens of seismographs around the world capable of picking up a blast. However, since there is no obvious crater, a nuclear strike would have been an air burst. I find it hard to believe that we wouldn't have heard reports from either a neutral nation (wild guess, there are maybe a dozen countries flying satellites capable of detecting the blast) or reports from civilians in the area that they saw a mushroom cloud. Also, I think it would be to Syria's advantage to say if they were attacked with nuclear weapons, it would get them a lot of sympathy.

[/ QUOTE ]

All good points. I'm not advocating any particular position, just looking at the evidence to see if there is a possiblity this is correct. I've got conflicting data. Hell, if you look at the first news stories, they say Syria razed the site themselves.

Without details and scale photos, I'm not going to make any air tight comparisons with the photos.

BTW, Edward Teller sat in Livermore National Labs with a seismograph the day that the first hyrdrogen bomb was detonated. Granted, it was half a world away, but it barely deflected. I'm not so sure that a seismograph would even have a noticable deflection for a small scale weapon being much closer. No one may have noticed.

Edit: Know what else, there have been statements that Syria has "cleaned up" the debris.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If it were a nuke then there would be easily detected radioisotopes released into the atmosphere. No way to keep it hidden. This has to be a MOAB.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's right. Nuclear facilities in Europe would pick something up. Maybe. Depends on the concentrations and the weather.

I'm leaning toward MOAB, too. Al-Jazeera may be half right.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is that a level?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Alleged Syrian Site:

http://a.abcnews.com/images/Internat..._071026_ms.jpg

Nagasaki:

http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/AAF/...fects-p10b.jpg

My problem is with the scale. See those rings on the Nagasaki picture? That first one is 1000 feet away from isocenter.

There is not a scale on the Syria photo, but the damage is very similar. On the Nagasaki picture you can see buildings that are partially leveled at the 1000 feet mark.

On the Syria photo, you can also see a partially leveled building that has debris scattered away from the center crater. I don't know if that is a crater, it's hard to see details on such a small image. I saw another image that suggested the hole to be more square, so I can't say for sure.

We know that Nagasaki was about 11 Kilotons. That's about as low a yeild as you are going to get from a tactical nuke, as well. There is a suggestion on the syria photo of pretty uniform destruction within a certain radius. The two photos are not to the same scale, either. Note the 45 degree structure on the right side. It seems closer to the center in the after image than the before image. Maybe there is rubble in the same shape in the second image, though. There also seems to be evidence of a blast wave rolling down the hills in all directions and at least partially burying the land features apparent in the first photo. Then again, the sun is also at a different angle.

Hard to say. I doubt anyone is going to let anything get out that is more detailed than what we have.

Is it possible?

Yes.

Can't say for sure.

One thing, though. This is an isolated site. If someone wanted to send a message to someone else through a proxy state, this certainly fits the bill.

There is another possiblity, however. That is, an accidental detonation of something on the ground. I don't even want to think about what that means.

Edit: here is a news story from shortly after the alleged incident. The photos suggest the hole in the middle of the picture to be more square.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where is the possible crater in the Syria photo?

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]

A B-52 is usually the kind of vehicle certified to carry tactical nukes. They are vulernable at low altitude, which would increase the accuracy.

I seem to recall an incident recently where a B-52 was carrying tactical nukes over US airspace in violation of a treaty.....

[/ QUOTE ]

The B61 and it's variants can be equipped on B2 stealths and F-16's.

Depending on the variant, it could leave a smaller seismic footprint than conventional weapons.

As for the situation in the OP...I have no opinion, just adding some input on the silver bullet, and it's potential methods of delivery.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]

I'm leaning toward MOAB, too. Al-Jazeera may be half right.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way in hell we fly a 130 in on a surreptitious first strike, with Syrian Air defense and radar capabilities at full functionality.

*IF* a situation like this were to happen, it would most certainly be a b2 stealth.....but if you assume the fighter escorts are true, then it either had to be a daytime run, or possibly an f-16 with a heavy bag.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I seem to recall an incident recently where a B-52 was carrying tactical nukes over US airspace in violation of a treaty.....

[/ QUOTE ]

That was actually about 8-10 days before this alleged incident....but they b-53 incident didn't involve "tactical" nukes. They were big time bombs.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

Any link to the original Al-Jazeera story?

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

Also, to get a range of scale, here are the Google coordinates of the site:

35.711517, 39.832950

Simple paste that into Google Maps, zoom out a few notches until the resolution is viewable, and obviously, change to satellite view, not map.

Also, Google Earth has higher resolution pics....at least for now.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is that a level?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to ask?

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

I played around with Google Earth and the firat two images are approximately 1900 ft x 3500 ft and the main building is roughly 160' square.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

If this is true (any bomb not just a nuke) is it an act of war? I don't know the technicals of the law.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I played around with Google Earth and the firat two images are approximately 1900 ft x 3500 ft and the main building is roughly 160' square.

[/ QUOTE ]

So we get about the mid section of the photo if we draw a radius from the crater to the edge of the rubble in the partially ruined building. That's about 1000 feet. That damage is consistant with a 10-20 KT device (on the lower end of that scale).

MOAB is still in the running.

From the damage, it looks as if there were one device. There are not multiple craters just one. So, I think that is a good assertion to make. The air strike used one bomb.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If this is true (any bomb not just a nuke) is it an act of war? I don't know the technicals of the law.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know the technicals, either. But, I think its safe to say we probably already are at war.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'm leaning toward MOAB, too. Al-Jazeera may be half right.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way in hell we fly a 130 in on a surreptitious first strike, with Syrian Air defense and radar capabilities at full functionality.

*IF* a situation like this were to happen, it would most certainly be a b2 stealth.....but if you assume the fighter escorts are true, then it either had to be a daytime run, or possibly an f-16 with a heavy bag.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your heavy bag theory.

Assume for the moment, though, that we leave the US out of the equation. The Isreali's have C-130's, too. They can buy a MOAB with that 20 Billion Dollar fund the US Government gives them every year. They are certainly confident enough against the syrian air force to use fighters to dominate the sky while they fly a slow mover in to deliver the package.

With the heavy bag Scenario, an f-16 could carry tactical nuke. In fact, it was designed with that in mind. It can deliver it using a lob manueaver, similar to the way you lob a football. Isreal has F-16's and tactical nukes as well.

I think they are hard core enough for either scenario.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

Why exactly would a US strike require Israeli F-15/F-16 CAP? If you were a USAF officer, why would you put the lives of your men in the hands of the Israeli pilots when US F-22 pilots are more than capable of providing support?

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If this is true (any bomb not just a nuke) is it an act of war? I don't know the technicals of the law.

[/ QUOTE ]

Line between war and peace seems very fluid in practice.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Assume for the moment, though, that we leave the US out of the equation. The Isreali's have C-130's, too. They can buy a MOAB with that 20 Billion Dollar fund the US Government gives them every year. They are certainly confident enough against the syrian air force to use fighters to dominate the sky while they fly a slow mover in to deliver the package.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, the israelis are nuts enough to fly a c-130 in on a first strike.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Where is the possible crater in the Syria photo?


[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't see it, where is it?

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Where is the possible crater in the Syria photo?


[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't see it, where is it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought this was another level.

It's that little black dot toward the center of the right hand photo.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why exactly would a US strike require Israeli F-15/F-16 CAP? If you were a USAF officer, why would you put the lives of your men in the hands of the Israeli pilots when US F-22 pilots are more than capable of providing support?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming the commander has the ability to make that kind of call, it is reasonable.

I see a number of possible scenarios:
1- Isreali's act alone and use a nuke.
2 -Isreali's and US act and use a nuke.
3- Isrealis act alone and use a MOAB.
4 - Isrealis act with US and use a MOAB.
5 - US acts alone and uses nuke/MOAB and blame Isreali's
6 - Isrealis have acted unilaterally and are trying to drag the US in through the "leak" story.

I'm really leaning toward an all Isreali action using a small tactical nuke or a MOAB/trying to pull the US into it.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

My personal opinion is that this was an all Israeli or all American operation. There is no need for the two countries to conduct such a limited mission together, unneccesarily complicating the sortie (if both have the necessary capabilities).

I think its most likely to be Israel, with the leaks designed to present a clear picture - that Israel has the US's full support for limited operations against such sites (unconventional/nuclear weapons).

I dont think its possible for Israel to have acted unilaterally, "trying to drag the US in" - no way Israel performs this mission (other than at a time of out and out war) without US permission.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why exactly would a US strike require Israeli F-15/F-16 CAP? If you were a USAF officer, why would you put the lives of your men in the hands of the Israeli pilots when US F-22 pilots are more than capable of providing support?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming the commander has the ability to make that kind of call, it is reasonable.

I see a number of possible scenarios:
1- Isreali's act alone and use a nuke.
2 -Isreali's and US act and use a nuke.
3- Isrealis act alone and use a MOAB.
4 - Isrealis act with US and use a MOAB.
5 - US acts alone and uses nuke/MOAB and blame Isreali's
6 - Isrealis have acted unilaterally and are trying to drag the US in through the "leak" story.

I'm really leaning toward an all Isreali action using a small tactical nuke or a MOAB/trying to pull the US into it.

[/ QUOTE ]

What would be the benefits of using a nuke over MOAB for the US? It seems like one is an international incident waiting to happen and the other is a relatively minor blip at this point. I can see benefit from Israel's POV of demonstrating willingness to use a nuke and trying to drag the US in to destroy its enemies. To me nuke = Israel acting alone or dumbest move in a long time by US.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

I'm literally laughing my ass off at the idiots in this thread that are seriously contemplating the possibility that the United States or Israel used a nuclear weapon.

Tactical weapons would've done the job almost as effectively, and remember this wasn't some hardened battle bunker that was nigh impenetrable, it was a piece of [censored] square building in the middle of the desert.

So, why would we use weapons that would produce international outcry if word were released, and trust me if Syria was nuked we'd have heard.

You're building nukes? Nukes are bad! We'll nuke you, to stop you from building bad things.

This makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. While we are at it let's engage in some other random speculation.

"9/11 was really a tactical nuke, but you guys just don't see teh pr00fz. Trust me, I see a black dot in one of the pictures, obviously a nuclear craterz."

Sorry for being sarcastic, I'm obviously wrong. I'm currently writing a letter to my Congressman demanding that they do something about Al-Jazeer's radar and flight monitoring technology (capable of picking up on stealth bombers/us overflights), and decisively deal with their spies occupying a number of U.S. armed forces officer positions such as a colonel, and major. How else would they know about such an attack, when the rest of the world remains clueless?!

I also need to congratulate him on developing non-radioactive nuclear warheads.

....maybe I'm getting out of line but this is even dumber than the 9/11 conspiracies. Someone else above me link the official news coverage saying the Syrian government cleaned up the site in < 3 weeks?

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

You guys are REALLY speculating in this thread.

I see the "crater" now, but I agree with the guy above me^

And google earth doesn't have updated images yet.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Where is the possible crater in the Syria photo?


[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't see it, where is it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought this was another level.

[/ QUOTE ]

Taso is the boy that cried wolf of leveling.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm literally laughing my ass off at the idiots in this thread that are seriously contemplating the possibility that the United States or Israel used a nuclear weapon.

Tactical weapons would've done the job almost as effectively, and remember this wasn't some hardened battle bunker that was nigh impenetrable, it was a piece of [censored] square building in the middle of the desert.

So, why would we use weapons that would produce international outcry if word were released, and trust me if Syria was nuked we'd have heard.

You're building nukes? Nukes are bad! We'll nuke you, to stop you from building bad things.

This makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. While we are at it let's engage in some other random speculation.

"9/11 was really a tactical nuke, but you guys just don't see teh pr00fz. Trust me, I see a black dot in one of the pictures, obviously a nuclear craterz."

Sorry for being sarcastic, I'm obviously wrong. I'm currently writing a letter to my Congressman demanding that they do something about Al-Jazeer's radar and flight monitoring technology (capable of picking up on stealth bombers/us overflights), and decisively deal with their spies occupying a number of U.S. armed forces officer positions such as a colonel, and major. How else would they know about such an attack, when the rest of the world remains clueless?!

I also need to congratulate him on developing non-radioactive nuclear warheads.

....maybe I'm getting out of line but this is even dumber than the 9/11 conspiracies. Someone else above me link the official news coverage saying the Syrian government cleaned up the site in < 3 weeks?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe nuclear explosions leave signatures, producing electromagnetic variations at the time and also leaving behind traces of radiation. I severely doubt that this was a nuke, but if it was, it will soon be known and proved. Speculation on this matter is pointless IMO.

Re: Did the US Nuke Syria?
 

It looks to me like the structure northwest of the main structure is at least partially intact. You can see the shadow of the secondary structure, the second picture was apparently taken around noon. The two structures are less than 1000 feet apart.