KQ suited in the hijack
 

Live 8/16 game. Hero is TAG fairly regular to the game. Villain is LAG in the BB who just sat down and has been whining non stop about losing $5K at 40/80 over the weekend.

UTG limps, folded to Hero in Hijack K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] raises, folded to BB who calls, UTG calls.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain bets, UTG folds, hero smooth calls.

Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

villain bets, hero raises, villain 3 bets, hero?

Re: KQ suited in the hijack
 

Your description shows that he lost a lot, we can assume it was from spewy/bluff ridden play as is common at CA and this is a good board for a spewmonster to bluff you out. Since your going to call a river bet vs this donkey if you think he will check to you on the river if you cap then thats the best move. You have 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s + 3 T's + if he is spewing with 2 pair another K may be good (lets call it one out to be safe) = 13 outs. Those times you don't improve you don't lose any additional bets (unless he is capable of leading the river, at which point he probably has a straight and your going to fold), and when you do improve you earn an extra bet. Its good to be in position!

Re: KQ suited in the hijack
 

Is it capped at 4 bets? If it is, I'd probably go ahead and put in the cap, calling a river bet UI. If it's not then I'd call the turn 3bet & call a river bet UI.

While I don't think you actually have enough equity in the pot to make the cap, I do think that the metagame effects of capping it (especially when you river your flush/straight) vs. this opponent make it worthwhile. He's already steaming, and a beat like that when he's holding 33 or KJ or whatever would probably be enough to send him to full blown tiltworld.

Re: KQ suited in the hijack
 

I'm seeing a show down in this spot vs. a LAG about 99% of the time. We have a metric [censored] ton of outs to improve and there is a chance we're good already. If 4 bets is the cap then I'd say it's about even with a smooth call, flip a coin to decide. I'm calling any river UI and probably going to raise if I do improve. Extracting from LAGs is fun in some many ways!

Re: KQ suited in the hijack
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is it capped at 4 bets? If it is, I'd probably go ahead and put in the cap, calling a river bet UI.

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If hero caps and the villain leads out with a blank on the river - he is toast, and can toss his hand in the muck.

Re: KQ suited in the hijack
 

So for the rest of the hand.

Hero caps the turn (cap is 4 bets)

River 6 of clubs.

Villian Bets, hero calls, Villian turns over 9 3 for two pair. Hero pukes, walks away from table to cool off.

Re: KQ suited in the hijack
 

[ QUOTE ]
So for the rest of the hand.

Hero caps the turn (cap is 4 bets)

River 6 of clubs.

Villian Bets, hero calls, Villian turns over 9 3 for two pair. Hero pukes, walks away from table to cool off.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If hero caps and the villain leads out with a blank on the river - he is toast, and can toss his hand in the muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: KQ suited in the hijack
 

[ QUOTE ]
If hero caps and the villain leads out with a blank on the river - he is toast, and can toss his hand in the muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, he likely is toast. But it's still 13:1, and you can't rule out a LAG going buck wild with a lesser/equal king or some combo draw at least that often. Especially one who's steaming.

Re: KQ suited in the hijack
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If hero caps and the villain leads out with a blank on the river - he is toast, and can toss his hand in the muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, he likely is toast. But it's still 13:1, and you can't rule out a LAG going buck wild with a lesser/equal king or some combo draw at least that often. Especially one who's steaming.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its 13:1 because the hero let the pot get that big - we have to keep this in context. A lag is not going to fire away with anything less than top pair top kicker here, we are toast more than 95% of the time. Bayes Therum tells us that hero has to be good just 8% of the time for the call to be +EV - no doubt its close but I can find a fold in a live game.

Re: KQ suited in the hijack
 

so i guess the turn raise turns out to be -EV

Re: KQ suited in the hijack
 

Just curious about where this was - I didn't think there were very many B&M establishments where there was any cap headsup.

Re: KQ suited in the hijack
 

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so i guess the turn raise turns out to be -EV

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The turn raise is absolutely +EV. But in this one particular hand it was bad.

Re: KQ suited in the hijack
 

how is that going to be absolutely +EV?
when villan 3 bet you on the turn, you have to put him on atleast 2 pair and knowing that you are drawing to win this pot.

Re: KQ suited in the hijack
 

[ QUOTE ]
how is that going to be absolutely +EV?
when villan 3 bet you on the turn, you have to put him on atleast 2 pair and knowing that you are drawing to win this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

He hadn't 3bet our turn raise when we made it.

The best, or most +EV, play is not always going to be the correct play based on our opponent's holding. But since we can't know what he has with 100% certainty, we just go with the play that has the largest long-term expectancy. In this case, raising the turn. And it's interesting to note that, even in this case when he'd flopped two pair, we still had 20 outs on the river, making us only a slight underdog (and the raise only slightly -EV in this instance).

Re: KQ suited in the hijack
 

The turn raise is +EV against the range thus far when we raised.
The turn cap is -EV against the range he now holds.

If we knew that villain would 3-town EVERYTIME we raised, then the raise would be -EV because of the latter range.

Re: KQ suited in the hijack
 

just call.. it sounds like he is gonna fire out at the river regaurdless anyways so you will get your chance to raise if you improve.