UFC 76
 

Any links out there yet ? Anyone know the line on the Forrest/Shogun fight ? Anyone thinking -400 and below is a solid bet for Shogun ? Forrest strength is stand up but I don't see how he stands a shot against Shogun at standup.

Re: UFC 76
 

Did you even try going to the betting sites? The 76 lines have been up just as long as 75.

Jon Fitch -115
Diego Sanchez -115

Mauricio Rua -325
Forrest Griffin +250

Chuck Liddell -450
Keith Jardine +300

Courtesy of Bodog

Re: UFC 76
 

Book maker

UFC 76: - ANAHEIM CALIFORNIA - $250 LIMIT -8:00 PM 32571 KEITH JARDINE - - +270
32572 CHUCK LIDDELL - - -330

8:00 PM 32573 DIEGO SANCHEZ - - +105
32574 JON FITCH - - -135

8:00 PM 32575 FORREST GRIFFIN - - +290
32576 MAURICIO RUA - - -360

8:00 PM 32577 THIAGO TAVARES - - +125
32578 TYSON GRIFFIN - - -155

Re: UFC 76
 

i like how bodog puts up ufc lines weeks before events, but can't put up ncaaf football lines til the day before most of the time

and baseball lines sometimes hours before the game starts

Re: UFC 76
 

There's only 2 sites I bet on that I really follow/trust .. I would like to be able to transfer $ around to different sites but god damn neteller ruined that for me and I haven't really wanted to trust any other companies since then. Lines seem to jump really good the day or 2 before the fight anyone think Shogun might get under -300 ? To maybe -280 ? -250 ?

Re: UFC 76
 

If you think -400 is fair for shogun, you are freaking nuts...

How many times has a great striker or dominant guy been KO'd or beaten decisively by an 'inferior' opponent this year?

I believe the variance in these fights is much higher than any of us suspect, to be quite honest. I'd be all over forrest if he was above +300 the same way i was all over Kongo.

Especially with the way both forrest and shogun tend to fight, this could turn into a simple brawl/slugfest standing, and brawls are unpredictable. It's not like shogun cleanly picks people apart, he rushes in and loves to bang and brawl... It's a high variance method to use especially with another guy who loves to clinch/brawl.

Yeah... keep in mind that favorites are not always as huge as you think. MMA betting is not yet a science like baseball betting is, and i'm guessing the randomness of it often outweighs our perceptions of who is better.

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you think -400 is fair for shogun, you are freaking nuts...

How many times has a great striker or dominant guy been KO'd or beaten decisively by an 'inferior' opponent this year?

I believe the variance in these fights is much higher than any of us suspect, to be quite honest. I'd be all over forrest if he was above +300 the same way i was all over Kongo.

Especially with the way both forrest and shogun tend to fight, this could turn into a simple brawl/slugfest standing, and brawls are unpredictable. It's not like shogun cleanly picks people apart, he rushes in and loves to bang and brawl... It's a high variance method to use especially with another guy who loves to clinch/brawl.

Yeah... keep in mind that favorites are not always as huge as you think. MMA betting is not yet a science like baseball betting is, and i'm guessing the randomness of it often outweighs our perceptions of who is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Shogun's style is especially high variance considering he has only lost once in the past 4 years.

Not saying laying that much chalk is good here, just disagreeing with that statement.

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you think -400 is fair for shogun, you are freaking nuts...

[/ QUOTE ]

fair enough, but at -325 I'm all over this

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
Especially with the way both forrest and shogun tend to fight, this could turn into a simple brawl/slugfest standing, and brawls are unpredictable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Forrest Griffin

14-4-0

Wins
3 (T)KOs
6 Submissions
5 Decisions

Losses
2 (T)KOs
2 Decisions

Mauricio Shogun Rua

16-2-0

Wins
13 (T)KOs
1 Submission
2 Decisions

Losses
1 (T)KO
1 Submission

Let's look into those a little bit. Forrest is 5-2 in the UFC with a close loss to Tito that he could have won, a loss to Jardine that I haven't seen, a close win against Bonnar at the TUF finale that I thought Bonnar won, and most recently a decision win against Hector Ramirez that I also haven't seen.

For as much as he likes to throw, he only has 3 wins by T(KO) (with one by cut). It doesn't appear he has enough punching power to knock guys out. He has 6 submissions, only one of which has come in the UFC. I would be shocked to see Griffin sub Rua here.

Shogun, on the other hand, went 12-1 in Pride. His only loss was a freak accident against Coleman (did Shogun fight as a HW here?) with wins over Alistair Overeem x2, Nakamura, Randleman, Rogerio Nogueira, and Rampage. He stops almost 90% of his fights (with his decisions coming against Nakamura and Nogueira), and 11 of his fights are stopped before the 5 minute mark.

[ QUOTE ]
How many times has a great striker or dominant guy been KO'd or beaten decisively by an 'inferior' opponent this year?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know, how many?

Cro Cop lost to Gonzaga because he had no answers for elbows on the ground and the cage. He lost to Kongo because he broke a rib in round 1, probably wasn't there mentally, and probably is on the downside of his career.

Sylvia lost to Couture because Randy is right up there with Fedor in terms of gameplanning.

Gomi lost to a (very underrated) Nick Diaz in a slug fest that he obviously didn't train for.

Arona and Rogerio lost to an apparent horse in Sokoudjou.

Serra beat GSP in one of the few fights that still looks crazy months later.

I agree with you that fights are probably more high variance than we like to think, but I don't agree with your assessment of the fight.

Re: UFC 76
 

Mikey,

Your points are very good, and i don't dispute them. Shogun has a god-like resume. Forrest does not. Let me see if I can just be more eloquent in my reasoning than I was before.

Pride vs. UFC guys seems to be very high variance in particular. The 'favorite', be it a big fav or a small fav, has lost a lot. Quenton was not expected to win, Big Nog nearly got KTFO'd, CC is down and out, Gomi vs. Diaz, etc etc. Whenever a guy switches orgs, i believe the variance increases, and I think bridge jumping lines become more inappropriate.

It's just harder than normal to reference skill set vs. skill set with limited common opponent, and different rules/environments.

Secondly, shogun is a banger. He's a terrific banger, as evidenced by his record, but this style still seems to me to be very high variance compared to other styles. When you move forward and throw with abandon, you can always get caught.

Also, Forrest seems to love this type of fight. Forrest can be caught, as his Jardine loss shows, but fundamentally, he loves to brawl. Shogun may be better at it, but he's not putting Forrest out of his comfort zone. CroCop was thought of as a better striker than Kongo, but the fight was dangerous because he wasn't putting Kongo out of his comfort zone, so Kongo had a real chance, more than what the bookies gave him. I think the same thing is true with forrest. He'll be fine in a brawl, and although he might lose he has a definite shot. I call this maybe a 70/30 fight.

So anyways the following things
High variance of two 'brawlers' fighting
+
High variance when switching orgs.
+
Shogun not putting Forrest out of his comfort zone

make me believe this line should be closer than it is.

Re: UFC 76
 

i am not a ufc expert but i would just like to say that the word variance is being severely abused in these conversations, and the 'appeal to variance' argument used in this thread is fallacious from a scientific perspective. so i wouldn't be betting my money on account of that.

Re: UFC 76
 

No, it's not. Considering the variance of a style matchup, in addition to the relative skill levels of the fighters, is a necessary part of setting a line.

Re: UFC 76
 

I wouldn't call Shogun's style wild. He's extremely aggressive and keeps a very high pace, but he doesn't really just swing away.

[ QUOTE ]
Pride vs. UFC guys seems to be very high variance in particular. The 'favorite', be it a big fav or a small fav, has lost a lot. Quenton was not expected to win, Big Nog nearly got KTFO'd, CC is down and out, Gomi vs. Diaz, etc etc. Whenever a guy switches orgs, i believe the variance increases, and I think bridge jumping lines become more inappropriate.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Nog/Herring is a very good example here. Nog got caught by a kick/knee as he ducked down, but he completely dominated that fight from start to finish.

If you mean Quinton wasn't expected to win against Chuck, I personally had him winning before that fight. Don't really understand why what was expected matters, as he went out and beat him again.

The only other guys that have come over and fought (I might be missing people, I just went through the fighters list from the Pride FC wiki page):

Fabricio Werdum: 0-1, loss to Arlovski
Anderson Silva: 4-0, wins over Leben, Franklin, Lutter, Marquardt

While they aren't perfect comparisons as fighters, I think Shogun is gonna follow a path more similar to A. Silva than Cro Cop.

I just don't think Griffin has much of a chance with Shogun. You say that "Griffin loves this type of fight," but when has Shogun been a standup-only fighter? Shogun has a very solid ground game. Will the rules change hurt him? Maybe, but Chutebox fighters have always trained with elbows. I see Shogun being better in every facet of MMA - he's better standing up, he's better in the clinch, he's better at GNP, and he's better off his back.

[ QUOTE ]
It's just harder than normal to reference skill set vs. skill set with limited common opponent, and different rules/environments.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shogun has fought in a cage (IFC tournament) and under the unified rules twice in Pride (albeit in a ring).

You were right about Kongo though, so maybe I'm way off. I just don't think Forrest can touch Shogun right now.

Re: UFC 76
 

8:00 PM 32573 DIEGO SANCHEZ - - +105
32574 JON FITCH - - -135

Give me Diego all day

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
8:00 PM 32573 DIEGO SANCHEZ - - +105
32574 JON FITCH - - -135

Give me Diego all day

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know that much about fitch, but it's possible people under value diego because he's a whiny bitch.

Re: UFC 76
 

Fitch is a beast. As a book, though, I like the Bodog line more though.

Re: UFC 76
 

Diego is a dog because he's supposed to be and he's a very small dog at that. Fitch is an absolutely HORRIBLE paper matchup for Diego... Fitch is a MUCH larger competitor with better boxing and GREAT wrestling. Plus Fitch has a brown belt in BJJ and has shown great prowess on the ground. That is a bad matchup for Diego and he's going to have a hard time winning. He could win, but I don't see how anyone would handicap him as the favorite.

Anderson Silva doesn't count because he was more from Cage rage than from Pride, but hte fact of the matter is you cannot simply say "Pride guys are underperforming compared to their expectations" and then leave it at that when you are handicapping.

Crocop is a 1-D fighter whos style is much more effective in the RING, plus GG is a great fighter too. Think about it, was it really that big of an upset in the eyes of people who don't buy into hype? No, liek randy couture thought, it was not.

The only truely shocking upset I've seen recently was Matt Serra vs GSP, no other fight have I been truly shocked by the results.

Did anyone else see Shogun vs Nakamura? For a wild aggressive striker who is a so called brawler, he sure did avoid the exchanges and simply take Nakamura down to UD a win.

If you are going to say forrest is being undervalued, pleaes lets not just say it's due to "Variance". Why don't you say it's because Forrest has become a much cleaner technical striker after his KO loss to Keith Jardine, and so we could possibly see him winning a UD if he can avoid being taken down. Forrest has shown greatly improved footwork and ability to pick spots in the ramirez fight and Forrest seems to know a ton about Shogun. Add to the mix that he's at Randy's camp and now we KNOW that he not only knows about Shogun, but is coming up with ways to counter Shogun's strength. Plus consider the fact that Shogun just got married and is supposedly taking Forrest lightly(which IMO is only plausible hearsay). I might consider betting on Forrest for those reasons...but certainly not because "it's a high variance fight, lets just bet the underdog".

Re: UFC 76
 

ill prolly take these three bets

KEITH JARDINE +270

DIEGO SANCHEZ EVEN

MAURICIO RUA -360

shogun is just too good to lose more than like 5% of the time here. hes not gonna get submitted and a KO or a decision is pretty unlikely

he epitomizes a well rounded fighter and athlete

i took jardine cause he is pretty good and liddell really isnt that good. hes got insane punching power and a good takedown defense but he really isnt a great boxer and i see him losing this fight ~50% of the time

diego is really good despite my hatred for him so i had to take him as a dog at even money

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
ill prolly take these three bets

KEITH JARDINE +270

DIEGO SANCHEZ EVEN

MAURICIO RUA -360

shogun is just too good to lose more than like 5% of the time here. hes not gonna get submitted and a KO or a decision is pretty unlikely

he epitomizes a well rounded fighter and athlete

i took jardine cause he is pretty good and liddell really isnt that good. hes got insane punching power and a good takedown defense but he really isnt a great boxer and i see him losing this fight ~50% of the time

diego is really good despite my hatred for him so i had to take him as a dog at even money

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Chuck loses 50% of the time and I don't think Shogun wins 96% of the time.

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ill prolly take these three bets

KEITH JARDINE +270

DIEGO SANCHEZ EVEN

MAURICIO RUA -360

shogun is just too good to lose more than like 5% of the time here. hes not gonna get submitted and a KO or a decision is pretty unlikely

he epitomizes a well rounded fighter and athlete

i took jardine cause he is pretty good and liddell really isnt that good. hes got insane punching power and a good takedown defense but he really isnt a great boxer and i see him losing this fight ~50% of the time

diego is really good despite my hatred for him so i had to take him as a dog at even money

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Chuck loses 50% of the time and I don't think Shogun wins 96% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you placed all your bets? This is no joke, I think I'll be the bookie on all of them

Re: UFC 76
 

well i dont think chuck will win 65% of the time so im hoping for an upset

shogun however will absolutely win this fight :P i dont think there is a good match up for him alive right now at 205

Re: UFC 76
 

havent bet yet

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
No, it's not. Considering the variance of a style matchup, in addition to the relative skill levels of the fighters, is a necessary part of setting a line.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes it is.

the argument may be that given these players styles, the edge the one has over the other is diminished. similar to the way NL heads up matches are effected by how deep of stacks you start off with, one could imagine a deep stack expert experiencing higher variance if he started playing HU matches with half as many BB.

it is this decrease in the edge over one's opponent which increases variance (similar to the way a binomial random variable's variance increases as the probability of a successful trial approaches 50%).

to state it the other way around isn't sound.


ie

you guys say this guy hasn't taken many losses, so consider two players each with the following record (played against the same opponents in the same setting):

WWWWLWWLWWWWLLWW

suppose player 1 is a striker and player 2 is a submission expert... who is the higher variance fighter? the obvious answer is that there is no way to possibly conclude based on the evidence that one's playing style has more variance than the other.

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]

suppose player 1 is a striker and player 2 is a submission expert... who is the higher variance fighter? the obvious answer is that there is no way to possibly conclude based on the evidence that one's playing style has more variance than the other.

[/ QUOTE ]

i would argue that an expert at striking has higher variance than a ground expert

there is an element of luck in striking that doesnt carry over well into ground work

edit:

maybe i read your post wrong but what im saying is:

good striker vs good striker = higher variance

good grappling vs good grappling = lower variance

Re: UFC 76
 

for anyone interested in diego sanchez, i'm willing to give you +115 up to 1k worth of a side bet on this card. (ie: i take -115 on fitch to win 1k) we'll get someone reputable to hold the money as this bet should settle relatively quickly..

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
for anyone interested in diego sanchez, i'm willing to give you +115 up to 1k worth of a side bet on this card. (ie: i take -115 on fitch to win 1k) we'll get someone reputable to hold the money as this bet should settle relatively quickly..

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhm, I'd like my -100 action on Fitch to be fullfilled first. and my -270 on Liddell. +360 for forrest i"ll take as well. No I'm not joking, and I have the money in Full Tilt poker, that's the only neutral place i can use.

Re: UFC 76
 

why would someone take +100 on diego when i'm offering +115?

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
KEITH JARDINE +270

DIEGO SANCHEZ EVEN

MAURICIO RUA -360


[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you taking the worst odds with all three bets?

Re: UFC 76
 

i only have money on wsex and my sportsbetting roll is super tiny [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
i only have money on wsex and my sportsbetting roll is super tiny [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Bad beat.

Re: UFC 76
 

No, it's not. If you are assuming AN EXACT, KNOWN edge, then of course there is no "variance" to be considered- only the exact, known edge. This entire conversation would be moot if we knew such a thing.

Consider chess ratings. For those not familiar, they range from roughly 1000-2800 (with horrific little kids below 1000). A player, on average, scores 75% against somebody rated 200 points lower 75%. So if we see "2200 v. 2000", with no other information, we would expect a score of 0.75.

Now, let's consider two hypothetical 2000 players. One 2000 pretty much murders everybody lower rated, but hardly ever scores against higher-rated players. The second 2000 has lots of upsets, but also lots of upset losses.

Even though both would have the same aggregate score against a "background" of competition with varying ratings, these two players have vastly different expectations against a 2200. The former will be way under 25%, the latter will be significantly over it.

The latter player's ability to win against higher-level competition more often (and lose against lower-level competition more often), compared to an "average" player of EXACTLY EQUAL NET RESULTS VS. A BACKGROUND OF OPPONENTS, is the variance we're talking about here. If you don't think such things can exist, in chess and in MMA, well, you're just wrong.

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i only have money on wsex and my sportsbetting roll is super tiny [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Bad beat.

[/ QUOTE ]


stake me? i think u should

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i only have money on wsex and my sportsbetting roll is super tiny [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Bad beat.

[/ QUOTE ]


stake me? i think u should

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if I were into that, I wouldn't have the cash for it either.

Re: UFC 76
 

i found a bookie who takes mspaints

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
why would someone take +100 on diego when i'm offering +115?

[/ QUOTE ]

The point was it wasn't going to happen, that's why I said that. I don't have and am not putting money into bodog but u can get ur -115 on fitch there.

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
ill prolly take these three bets

KEITH JARDINE +270

DIEGO SANCHEZ EVEN

MAURICIO RUA -360

shogun is just too good to lose more than like 5% of the time here. hes not gonna get submitted and a KO or a decision is pretty unlikely

he epitomizes a well rounded fighter and athlete

i took jardine cause he is pretty good and liddell really isnt that good. hes got insane punching power and a good takedown defense but he really isnt a great boxer and i see him losing this fight ~50% of the time

diego is really good despite my hatred for him so i had to take him as a dog at even money

[/ QUOTE ]

5%? Really?

I'll give you 10-1 on forrest, pm me for details. STEAL for you lol.

Re: UFC 76
 

Hell there might be more then a 5% chance Shogun soccer kicks or stomps on Forrests face and gets DQ'ed..

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why would someone take +100 on diego when i'm offering +115?

[/ QUOTE ]

The point was it wasn't going to happen, that's why I said that. I don't have and am not putting money into bodog but u can get ur -115 on fitch there.

[/ QUOTE ]

what makes you think i haven't done so already? the prob when your unit size is big relative to exotic props is that rarely you can get enough down at the # you like before running into the max limit restrictions; in this case being the jew that i am, i was even willing to take one cent worse..
================================================
Date placed:
Sep xx, 2007 xxxx Single #xxxxxxxx
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
UFC 76 Welterweights - Sat, Sep 22nd (10:00pm) @ Honda Center, CA
Both must fight for action. No Parlays. Max $500
(707) Jon Fitch -115 Sep 22/07@10:00p
Competitor: (708) Diego Sanchez
Risk $575.00 to win $500.00
=================================================
xxxx
x-Sep-07 xxxx
22-Sep-07 Future MMA Fight Odds - UFC 76 - Honda Center, ... -116 2,320.00 2,000.00
UFC 76 - Honda Center, CA
Welterweights
================================================== =======
now do you understand why i'm offering to book a bet at a line that can be considered "w.a"?

i'm just surprised at all the folks who loves diego at even yet no one has stepped up to take +115 which i'm quite certain is the best price out there at the moment..
Jon Fitch Vs. Diego Sanchez
Jon Fitch vs Diego Sanchez

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why would someone take +100 on diego when i'm offering +115?

[/ QUOTE ]

The point was it wasn't going to happen, that's why I said that. I don't have and am not putting money into bodog but u can get ur -115 on fitch there.

[/ QUOTE ]

what makes you think i haven't done so already? the prob when your unit size is big relative to exotic props is that rarely you can get enough down at the # you like before running into the max limit restrictions; in this case being the jew that i am, i was even willing to take one cent worse..
================================================
Date placed:
Sep xx, 2007 xxxx Single #xxxxxxxx
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
UFC 76 Welterweights - Sat, Sep 22nd (10:00pm) @ Honda Center, CA
Both must fight for action. No Parlays. Max $500
(707) Jon Fitch -115 Sep 22/07@10:00p
Competitor: (708) Diego Sanchez
Risk $575.00 to win $500.00
=================================================
xxxx
x-Sep-07 xxxx
22-Sep-07 Future MMA Fight Odds - UFC 76 - Honda Center, ... -116 2,320.00 2,000.00
UFC 76 - Honda Center, CA
Welterweights
================================================== =======
now do you understand why i'm offering to book a bet at a line that can be considered "w.a"?

i'm just surprised at all the folks who loves diego at even yet no one has stepped up to take +115 which i'm quite certain is the best price out there at the moment..
Jon Fitch Vs. Diego Sanchez
Jon Fitch vs Diego Sanchez

[/ QUOTE ]

Did I ever say I didn't beleive you'd already bet Jon Fitch anywhere you could @ -115? No. I simply stated u could get him @ bodog @ -115 IN CASE you hadn't already, I'll be sure to correct myself in the future and not point out lines that you probably already bet but may not have.

2ndly, I'm not surprised at all no one has given you action. I was dead serious saying I'd take the opposite end of every single one of his bets, but I was fairly certain it wasn't going to happen. In any case I put the offer out there just in case, there's no sense in both parties losing out to the books if there's a possibility that we can do our own trade.

The only people I know who I could actually bet against in that wy and for large sums of money...I rarely ever bet against and vice versa.

Re: UFC 76
 

you're reading a lil too much into this. i'm typically indifferent to others' opinions as it has no effects on me. i'm simply explaining the position why i'm willing to the take the worst of it at the ask price instead of mid/bid price.. in case anyone is interested in a highly juicy line.