NFL undefeated season prop
 

At Bodog. -800 for no looks like free money.


Will any team finish the Regular Season Undefeated 16-0?

(Only Dallas, Indianapolis or New England are undefeated). All wagers have action. No Parlays. Max $100
Yes +400
No -800

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

looks solid, whats the max on this?

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

thanks for posting I hit this as soon as I saw it

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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looks solid, whats the max on this?

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$800->$100

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

Max $200, -650 at The Greek

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

Agreed. It's not even close.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

Considering both Dallas and Indianapolis play New England, I like this even more.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

-900 for no on bodog now

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

I think New England will go undefeated. I've never seen a team this good or a league this bad. I don't have an account at Bodog or Hilton so I just bet the pats moneyline every week.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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I think New England will go undefeated. I've never seen a team this good or a league this bad.

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I thought the same thing, but Steve Young mentioned something I hadn't considered.

He pointed out that their division is so weak, they'll probably clinch with a month left to play. If they wrap up home-field advantage early as well, and have nothing to play for those last few games, it's unrealistic to expect their best efforts in those games.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

New props on Bodog:

Patriots regular season record, they have odds for each possible record. 11/2 on 16-0.

Patriots 19-0 +800/-1600
Colts 19-0 +1200/-2400
Colts 16-0 +1000/-2000
Dolphins 0-16 +1300/-2600

Personally not picking any of these, the lines are too far apart to really get an edge on either side. Will be interesting to see how they move, though.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

Fading the first two is essentially printing money.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

Kinda strange that the Colts no line is worse than the Pats no line. I see your point, given that you're guaranteed to win one of the two, and have a great chance of winning both.

max bets are 100, so:

NE - risk 100 to win 6.25
IND - risk 100 to win 4.17

If we give NE a 6% chance of going 19-0 and IND a 2% chance of going 19-0, then we have:
neither go 19-0 -- win 10.42 (92%)
NE goes 19-0 -- lose 95.83 (6%)
IND goes 19-0 -- lose 93.75 (2%)

Total expectation = win 1.96

So +EV.. but thats a 1% ROI for 4 months. Even if you think their chances of going 19-0 should be lower than that, the ROI is still so low that I'd rather have my money freed up and bet on something else.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

the max bet is to win $100 on the "no"

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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So +EV.. but thats a 1% ROI for 4 months. Even if you think their chances of going 19-0 should be lower than that, the ROI is still so low that I'd rather have my money freed up and bet on something else.

[/ QUOTE ]That is faulty. One of the bets can last no longer than 3 weeks. And it is possible that both will last less than a week. I maxed the NE bet and put 1,000 on Indy (I would have maxed but that is all I have that is not tied up).

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

Good points, I didn't realize it was a max win of $100 not a max risk of $100 (noob mistake, I'm here to learn about this stuff). And since they play each other in a few weeks, at least half the money will be freed up then. Now I'm wishing I had more bankroll available for this; gonna dump most of my Bodog balance into it though. Thanks guys.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

Mogawi,

I think 6% is very high. Both teams will clinch early if undefeated and rest starters increasing likelihood of a defeat. In addition the colts line looks horribly wrong considering they have a very significant chance of going through NE again in the playoffs.

Going 19-0 is going to be incredibly tough and I think your estimates are fairly high.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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Mogawi,

I think 6% is very high.

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It's very easy to make a case that 6% is too low.

These are readily available lines:

10/21 @ Miami -16.5
11/4 @ Indi -3
11/18 @ Buffalo -14
12/3 @ Balt -7 (???)
12/9 PITT -10
12/29 @ NYG -7

Other games (a.k.a. blowout city):
Sun 10/28/07 Washington 3 2
Sun 11/25/07 Philadelphia 2 3
Sun 12/16/07 NY Jets 1 5
Sun 12/23/07 Miami 0 6

Another available line:

Superbowl

NFC +10
AFC -10

Worst case scenario for the two home playoff games would be -10 and -6.

All I am saying is a case can definitely be made...

I wouldn't make that bet at -1600.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I think New England will go undefeated. I've never seen a team this good or a league this bad.

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I thought the same thing, but Steve Young mentioned something I hadn't considered.

He pointed out that their division is so weak, they'll probably clinch with a month left to play. If they wrap up home-field advantage early as well, and have nothing to play for those last few games, it's unrealistic to expect their best efforts in those games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. Luckily, the fact that I am betting them weekly instead of all at once in a prop bet takes care of that problem.

Incidentally, I don't think I'll be able to bet the Pats this week. My bookie isn't offering a money line on them and I don't like betting against heavy (greater than 9 point) home dogs. Sigh.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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[ QUOTE ]
So +EV.. but thats a 1% ROI for 4 months. Even if you think their chances of going 19-0 should be lower than that, the ROI is still so low that I'd rather have my money freed up and bet on something else.

[/ QUOTE ]That is faulty. One of the bets can last no longer than 3 weeks. And it is possible that both will last less than a week. I maxed the NE bet and put 1,000 on Indy (I would have maxed but that is all I have that is not tied up).

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you 100% sure of the rules on this? In my experience, season long prop bets are not paid until the end of the season no matter when the proposition gets decided. Not saying that this is definitely the case at your book, but it you haven't made absolutely sure, you should.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

Post Oak,

I can see your point. Though I don't agree with it.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

Their last 3 games:


Sun 12/16/07 NY Jets 1 5
Sun 12/23/07 Miami 0 6
Sun 12/29 AT NYG -7

Doesn't look like it will be a problem...

If they are undefeated, Brady and co. are gonna play until the game is over - meaning for 2-3 quarters [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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Their last 3 games:


Sun 12/16/07 NY Jets 1 5
Sun 12/23/07 Miami 0 6
Sun 12/29 AT NYG -7

Doesn't look like it will be a problem...

If they are undefeated, Brady and co. are gonna play until the game is over - meaning for 2-3 quarters [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Yeah standard square talk. Next tell me how a spot starter can't lose to the best pitcher in baseball on a far superior team unless he dies, has his arm explode, or falls off the planet.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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Post Oak,

I can see your point. Though I don't agree with it.

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You must be betting a couple of those "Games of the Year" then.

It's tough to know just how good NE is only 6 games into the season, and those lines are clearly assuming they are every bit as great as they have looked (except for the Balt line?).

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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Post Oak,

I can see your point. Though I don't agree with it.

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You must be betting a couple of those "Games of the Year" then.

It's tough to know just how good NE is only 6 games into the season, and those lines are clearly assuming they are every bit as great as they have looked (except for the Balt line?).

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not because it doesn't fit in with my other bets, but yes in an ideal world with no other considerations. I would be betting them.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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Yeah standard square talk. Next tell me how a spot starter can't lose to the best pitcher in baseball on a far superior team unless he dies, has his arm explode, or falls off the planet.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 13-0 team with an easy shot at 16-0 is not gonna bench all of their players for the entire game.

Also, if Miami is -16.5 at home, shouldn't they be over 3 touchdown dogs at NE? NYJ at NE would easily be a -20 type line right now also.

I mean don't blame me - I don't make the lines!

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Yeah standard square talk. Next tell me how a spot starter can't lose to the best pitcher in baseball on a far superior team unless he dies, has his arm explode, or falls off the planet.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 13-0 team with an easy shot at 16-0 is not gonna bench all of their players for the entire game.

Also, if Miami is -16.5 at home, shouldn't they be over 3 touchdown dogs at NE? NYJ at NE would easily be a -20 type line right now also.

I mean don't blame me - I don't make the lines!

[/ QUOTE ]

Points aren't linear and they will be benching almost all their key players for almost the entire game.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=251224026

Not exact same situation. But I'd be stunned if starters go for any length of time with HFA locked up. 2-3 quarters would be about 1-2 quarters more than I'd expect to see out of Randy/Brady/Maroney.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Yeah standard square talk. Next tell me how a spot starter can't lose to the best pitcher in baseball on a far superior team unless he dies, has his arm explode, or falls off the planet.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 13-0 team with an easy shot at 16-0 is not gonna bench all of their players for the entire game.

[/ QUOTE ]

A team with a locked up #1 seed will rest all their key players for 3-4 quarters. PHL did for 2 weeks and still made the SB and that was without TO.

Belicheat doesn't care about reg season records. Look at all the QBs who have gotten hurt this year already:
Losman
Leinart
Warner
Carr
Delhomme
Young
Smith
Chad
Kitna
Stanton
Jackson
Green, etc. Leaving Moss and Brady and Samuel in to get banged up - even if only missing 2 weeks, could cost them a game v Pitt or SDG or Indy or Jax or etc.

I'm shocked everyone forgets that NE was only up 10 in 4th v Cleve, at home, and Browns had the ball. This v a Browns team that had given up 34, 45, 26 to Oak, etc, and Brady only scored 3 TDs on them.

Wash, at Indy, PHL with a healthy Sheppard and Dawkins back [Iggle D given up 3 total offensive TDs in 18 of 20 quarters. Other 3 came in half where PHL up 35-7 early]
at Balt, Pitt, at 4-2 Giants who will likely be playing for division/home game/wild card when NWE has nothing to play for.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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and they will be benching almost all their key players for almost the entire game.


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No. Teams don't start benching all of their key players in Week 14. Doesn't happen...

If they are undefeated, they will want to go for 16-0. If they are 13-0, Brady could be chasing some records himself.

They might bench a few key players in Week 17 for most of the game. Might. In Week 17.

Betting on this at -1600 because you are hoping for a "starters benched" type angle isn't a good idea.

Let's look at the available lines again, with conservative chances of winning:

These are readily available lines:

10/21 @ Miami -16.5 92%
11/4 @ Indi -3 60%
11/18 @ Buffalo -14 89%
12/3 @ Balt -7 73%
12/9 PITT -10 80%
12/29 @ NYG -7 73%

We'll estimate for the remaining games (again erring on the side of caution):

Sun 10/28/07 Washington -11 81%
Sun 11/25/07 Philadelphia -13 85%
Sun 12/16/07 NY Jets -17 92%
Sun 12/23/07 Miami -21.5 93%

Worst case scenario for the playoffs (using available lines from above):

Pitt -10 80%
Indy -6 69%

Superbowl

NFC -10 80%

We were conservative in our % chances to win given a spread. We were also conservative in estimating those lines which are not yet available (I only checked one site). We still come up with a 5.45% chance to go 19-0! So based on available lines, this is not a good futures bet.

If you want to pursue this "starters will be benched" angle, maybe you should just bet on their Week 17 game (-7 at NYG).

Thinking that Brady will play 1 quarter each game for the last 4 weeks (3 of which are home games, in front of home fans) is assinine. Thinking that anyone outside of Brady/Moss/healthy RB is gonna miss significant time for the last 3-4 weeks is even more ridiculous.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

at 14-0, if #1 seed is a lock, I will happily bet that major NWE players skip more than 1 Q of action.

edit: And Brady at least a half.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

Post Oak,

Those aren't worst case post season numbers. They also don't factor in any injury chances. And you're completely wrong about the resting the starters. Please go back through the recent years of teams who've clinched HFA or look for coach's statements on the issue. I'm not a fan of "angles" but to assume that they'll play 2-3 quarters is asinine.

If you'd like to bet on that, I'll take action on a undefeated teams who've clinched HFA playing their starting QB for greater than 1/2 the game's offensive snaps averaged over all games played that fit the criteria. That should give you a sizable edge considering you think they'll play 2-3 quarters.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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at 14-0, if #1 seed is a lock, I will happily bet that major NWE players skip more than 1 Q of action.

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I hate you.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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when NWE has nothing to play for.

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So a 15-0 team has nothing to play for?

A 14-1 team has nothing to play for. A 15-0 team will be playing to set the new NFL record for an undefeated season (yes, I know the Dolphins were 14-0).

I don't disgaree that we can see benchings in Week 16 and 17 (especially 17, which is on the road). That is to say, a few guys might only play 3 quarters or so over the last 2 weeks.

Now look at the numbers I provided. Is betting on this prop hoping the Pats will be benching starters really worth it?

I can see betting this prop if you think the available lines are bad (which you allude to), but the whole "starters will be benched" angle is pure square-think.

And you would be better off just betting on NYG -7 in Week 17 anyway.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

PO,

Either take my money or admit you're just being ridiculous. Or continue whatever absurd positions you continue to believe.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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when NWE has nothing to play for.

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I don't disgaree that we can see benchings in Week 16 and 17 (especially 17, which is on the road). That is to say, a few guys might only play 3 quarters or so over the last 2 weeks.


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Yes, that's what I'm saying. Brady, Moss, Samuel, Seymour, Harrison, Bruschi, Stall, Watson, Maroney may only play 1st half week 15 and 1st Q week 16. We seem to agree on this.

Obvs if you wait until week 15, you do not profit if they lose to Indy, Balt, Wash, Pitt, or PHL before then. You've surrendered +EV.
The prop can be +EV now, and ML be +EV then. It's not either/or proposition.

Also, I don't think a healthy PHL team is only 15% to beat NWE. JMHO, and I admit they may not get a fully healthy Lito and B-Dawk back. But supposedly they will, soon.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

There have been 6 undefeated teams in NFL history. Dolphins won the most games. Being #7 is meh, fine, nice but meh. Because the media talks about it doesn't mean Belicheat cares even a tad.

I think Belicheat is FAR more concerned with becoming only 2nd coach to win 4 SBs. And, let's not forget, he hasn't even gotten to the SB without Weis and Crennel. You know that burns him inside, so why risk major injuries at NYG, on a bad playing surface, in bad weather, etc. All it takes is one free-agent rookie who wants to make a 'name' for himself by rolling up on Tom like Wilfork did to Losman. You know some guys would do it, too. Why take the risk?

I'll take the Under on Brady plays combined 4.5 Qs last 2 games if they have clinched #1 seed.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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And you're completely wrong about the resting the starters.


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You do know there are 22 starters, right? OK, just checking... because benching a QB is not equivalent to benching all of your starters.

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Please go back through the recent years of teams who've clinched HFA


[/ QUOTE ]

Alas, there are no 14-0 or 15-0 teams to compare them to..

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I'll take action on a undefeated teams who've clinched HFA playing their starting QB for greater than 1/2 the game's offensive snaps averaged over all games played that fit the criteria. That should give you a sizable edge considering you think they'll play 2-3 quarters.

[/ QUOTE ]

The 2005 Colts were 13-0 and had already clinched home field throughout the playoffs. Peyton Manning started their 14th game. The Colts were down 13-0 at the half (all of which Manning had played), and he still came out for the third quarter. In fact, he was 26-45 in passing.

The 1998 Broncos were 13-0, and had clinched home field throughout the playoffs. Elway (who would retire after the year), was 19-36 in their 14th game, which they lost.

So I'm not sure what in the world you could possibly be referring to, but please remember that we are talking about undefeated teams. In other words, history has shown that a 13-0 team (which has clinched HFA) is not gonna sit anyone.

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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Either take my money or admit you're just being ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, let's make the bet.

Here's the criteria:

- undefeated teams
- 16 game schedule
- in the last 20 years
- weeks 15-17

How much do you want to bet?

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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I'll take the Under on Brady plays combined 4.5 Qs last 2 games if they have clinched #1 seed.

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OK, let's make the bet.

The only things I want to add:

1. NE must be undefeated
2. unlike Thremp, you are only talking about the last two weeks, and 4.5 is way higher than he would set the bar. Let's put it at 3.5Qs.

How much should we bet?

Re: NFL undefeated season prop
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Either take my money or admit you're just being ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, let's make the bet.

Here's the criteria:

- undefeated teams
- 16 game schedule
- in the last 20 years
- weeks 15-17

How much do you want to bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL @ you.

Keep muddying the waters. I think this thread is becoming pretty clear who's on the correct side of the "resting starters" angle and its implications on the games.