Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
 

£1-£2 Live Pot Limit game in London. Effective stacks £210.


I have 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the BB.

I have show down one hand (AA 4 way all-in pf against 3 very short-stacks). I've also folded TT to a limp re-raise all-in PF (didnt show but looked annoyed at decision due to relatively short-stack of re-raiser).

UTG limps ( I have seen him limp QQ pre-flop to 'slowplay' - looking to re-raise. Other times he has raised donk-ish amounts ie £5 pre-flop, giving me the impression that he's not a solid player.

6 players to the flop.........

Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I lead for £12.

UTG raises to £60, everyone else folds.

If I call pot would be £132 on the turn and I'd have ~ £150 behind, so I think that calling will led to alot of tough decision on the turn, given the number of possible scare cards.

However, if I re-raise I think that he simply folds the vast majority of his range that I am ahead of (KQ, AQ, KK), but plays for stacks when he has me crushed (Q9, 99, 44, QQ). I'd assume he'd call with AA, given that it's live and that he's a donk. Given his play so far I can almost certainly rule out playing a big combo draw aggressively multi-way ie JsTs.

This means that when I am ahead I win ~ £70, but lose ~ £200 when I am behind. Given the weighting of his range, I think that maybe the risk-reward balance, taking into account his range makes this a very tough decision.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

46,530 games 0.005 secs 9,306,000 games/sec

Board: 9s Qs 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.222% 58.22% 00.00% 27089 1.50 { 9c4s }
Hand 1: 41.778% 41.78% 00.00% 19438 1.50 { QQ+, 99, 44, AQs, KQs, Q9s, AQo, KQo, Q9o }

His estimated calling range if I 4 bet:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

16,830 games 0.005 secs 3,366,000 games/sec

Board: 9s Qs 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.243% 32.23% 00.01% 5425 1.50 { 9c4s }
Hand 1: 67.757% 67.75% 00.01% 11402 1.50 { AA, QQ, 99, 44, Q9s, Q9o }

I'd appreciate others thoughts on how to best play the hand.

Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
 

interesting post, my default would be to always push here. Villain's can have draws a lot of the time, or if they don't they can 'put you on a draw' and call with one pair. Imo, (to not shove here) you need an iron-clad read that
a) his raising range does not include any draws
b) he will fold all the one pair hands you mentioned to a shove.

If these are both true, then I would call and either c/c turn or bet it myself, depending on what your read is. There are no real scare cards that can come from your point of view as you say he can't have draws.

Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
 

this is live i.e. an easy shove

Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
 

If this is a live £1-£2 game in London, i shove and fist pump when he calls.

The action hardly dictates to that of having you beat right now.
I personally would weight a range here more towards AA/KK/AQ, with sets making up a tiny part of his range. The reason is people love to slowplay live, and with so many people left to act on the flop i imagine he's calling sets far far more than he's ever raising them.
There's also the small chance he makes a hero call with KQ, "putting you on a draw because you played it so fast".

Given these assumptions i believe your equity here is much better than you originally assumed. I think you should include AQ and KK within his calling range.

I also don't mind calling and donking 60-80 on the turn, but there are a lot of cards we don't want to see.

Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
 

I think you're giving him too much credit. I seriously doubt he'd fold kings there, and he could have all kinds of other hands. He could have A4 of spades, or maybe any flush draw. AQ isn't unreasonable either. Maybe even a bluff.

The problem is that bottom two is so weak. With any weaker hand that he calls with (AA, AQ, flush draw) he's at least 30% to win the pot. If he calls with a better hand, you either need to hit a 3-outer (assuming no set), or running quads.

I think this is a really close call... in my possibly stupid opinion, folding is the best choice. It's definitely the easiest choice, at least.

It might be slightly +EV to shove here in the long run, but I'd rather avoid the variance than take such a slight edge for a stack. Letting him take the £14 doesn't seem too bad, maybe I'm just a weak player though.

Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
 

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folding is the best choice.

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nonono don't fold!

Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a really close call... in my possibly stupid opinion, folding is the best choice. It might be slightly +EV to shove here in the long run, but I'd rather avoid the variance than take such a slight edge for a stack. Letting him take the £14 doesn't seem too bad, maybe I'm just a weak player though.

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assuming you're rolled for the game, if it's more +EV to shove than to fold, you do it, regardless of the variance. the only way i can think to excuse otherwise is if you know that losing your stack there will cause you to tilt a lot. but that's it's own problem which would probably be bigger than this hand itself

i'm shoving here fwiw

Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
 

blanko: That's absolutely true. But a LOT of people get tilty or at least let the losses affect their game. I think most people underestimate the value of reduced variance.

I'm not saying shoving is a bad move, I just think there might be better situations to get your money in. I'm not sure that the "instashove, fist pump" are seeing that Villain is 1/3 to win if he's beat, and 91-99% to win with a made hand. The long term profit margin, if there is one, is pretty low.

Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying shoving is a bad move, I just think there might be better situations to get your money in.

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I think this concept is irrelevant tbh. Of course we'd prefer if we had top set, but we don't. We have a situation where we rank the decisions available, and take the decision which has highest EV. If shoving has higher EV than folding, then we shove.
If we have a better spot later, like we can get AIPF with AA, great. But that does not affect what we should do on this hand.

Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
 

[ QUOTE ]
blanko: That's absolutely true. But a LOT of people get tilty or at least let the losses affect their game. I think most people underestimate the value of reduced variance.

I'm not saying shoving is a bad move, I just think there might be better situations to get your money in. I'm not sure that the "instashove, fist pump" are seeing that Villain is 1/3 to win if he's beat, and 91-99% to win with a made hand. The long term profit margin, if there is one, is pretty low.

[/ QUOTE ]

villain has us crushed like ~10% of the time at most

Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
 

I'd be really surprised if he folds KK, AQ, KQ or maybe even worse queens. I also don't think you can discount him raising a flush draw at least some small % of the time. Just get it in.

Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
 

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I just think there might be better situations to get your money in.

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If this situation is +EV to push, and there is more EV in pushing than calling or folding, then you should do that. There is no better spots. This is a spot where you can make money long term if you keep doing this move so I do not see a reason not to.

There is no point in waiting for better spots when you have a perfectly good spot here.

Also, variance should not really play a role in your strategy as long as you are properly rolled for the game.

Concerning the hand itself, I shove here too. I can see you being called with one pair hands all day long. Calling is OK too as it allows him to stack off easier with on e pair hands, but there are a lot of scare cards and action killers, so I push.

Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
 

I actually think that it is close EV - wise. I'm stil not totally convinced that it's + EV.

The fact that I had seen him play an overpair 'slow' tipped me towards pushing. When I have a tough decision I often end up giving up thinking and just push. I did. When he didn't snap-call, I did cartwheels inside, knowing he only had 1 pair. Eventually he called with AQ- so we got it in good. However, I think that the majority of the time when he calls we are crushed.

From the comments on tilting, it's really not a problem that affects me. However, sometimes I have to adjust as others may imagine that I'd be on tilt and so call / raise me lighter. Also, I have £ on deposit at the club so don't have an issue of having to leave table to withdraw £ etc, so have no problem getting it in when only marginally EV.