15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

Hollywood Park 15/30.

UTG opens. I think his range is TT+ AQo when he raises here, but in general he limps in a ton and plays a lot of pots pre-flop, is kind of weak postflop. 3 callers (standard), I 3 bet AKo on button – I think UTG will shut down pre-flop without AA/KK to a 3-bet which makes a 3-bet easier. 16 2/3 SBB pot.

Flop is Q 6 9 rainbow. UTG bets because he never checkraises everyone folds and I call - HU. Villain has a sick smile. Turn is J - he suddenly looks super confident, and its likely not an act because he always looks worried. I call, knowing he won’t bet the river lightly or with an underpair to the board.

I miss on the river, he bets the blank card and I fold.

If the river was an A, I think I would still fold in this huge pot - no way is top pair good. Am I crazy?

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

Super standard, TT. 18:1 on the flop closing the action heads up, 11:1 on the turn with a gutshot to the nuts that's guaranteed to be good. If the river is an A he's checking his KK and betting his AQ/QQ/JJ. But the pot might be such that calling with TPTK isn't so bad. Just don't expect to win with it.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

[ QUOTE ]


If the river was an A, I think I would still fold in this huge pot - no way is top pair good. Am I crazy?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you trust your read so much, and you were planning to fold a river A, why not fold on the turn? When he bets the turn, you are putting him on AQ/JJ/KK/QQ, right? You have 3 outs against AQ and KK, and 0 outs against the others.

avg outs = (9*3 + 3*0 + 3*0 + 3*3)/18 = 2

Not to mention that, no matter how sure you of this "won't bet river A with KK" read, there is always some chance you are wrong, so you will have to contend with some chance of folding the best hand in a big pot, or with reverse-implied odds.

Also, your live read of the turn bet seems to favor QQ/JJ for him -- so 2 outs seems generous.

Seems like a turn fold.

EDIT: I just realized his PF play discounts KK even further, which makes the turn fold seem even more clear...

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

He has at least the 4 Tens as outs to broadway.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

You are getting 11:1 on the river.

If an A hits his possible hands:outs
AA:1, KK:3, QQ:3, JJ:3, TT:6, AK:2, AQ:3

He wins: 10, you win:9 You tie:2.

Based on his betting and his smile he is most likely to have JJ or AQ. However, he could also have TT and have been smiling because he just took away 3 of your outs. Likewise, KK is possible too.

I would call an A with a bet on the river.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

[ QUOTE ]
He has at least the 4 Tens as outs to broadway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah missed that.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 11:1 on the river.

If an A hits his possible hands:outs
AA:1, KK:3, QQ:3, JJ:3, TT:6, AK:2, AQ:3

He wins: 10, you win:9 You tie:2.

Based on his betting and his smile he is most likely to have JJ or AQ. However, he could also have TT and have been smiling because he just took away 3 of your outs. Likewise, KK is possible too.

I would call an A with a bet on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rick - i think we can remove AA and KK from his range of hands, he goes bananas with those holdings (saw both happen already). I also think we can slightly discount TT, not positive he would be the turn , perhaps discount that as part of his range by 20%.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

shrug, i'd call an ace wouldn't necessarily like it. i'd definitely call a K though. pot is quite large. and i have a rep of being a folder too.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has at least the 4 Tens as outs to broadway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah missed that.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you be the only one to catch the J9 double-gutter in my hand with the KT7 Q, but miss the 4 gutshot outs to broadway?

I'm starting to lose respect [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

Garland

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has at least the 4 Tens as outs to broadway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah missed that.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you be the only one to catch the J9 double-gutter in my hand with the KT7 Q, but miss the 4 gutshot outs to broadway?

I'm starting to lose respect [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].


[/ QUOTE ]

Ya pretty unforgivable.... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

[ QUOTE ]

Rick - i think we can remove AA and KK from his range of hands, he goes bananas with those holdings (saw both happen already). I also think we can slightly discount TT, not positive he would be the turn , perhaps discount that as part of his range by 20%.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT -- this seems inconsistent. On the one hand, you are so sure that he won't bet his KK on an ace river that you are willing to fold; on the other hand, you are only slightly discounting the chance that be bets his TT into a board with 2 overcards on the turn.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Rick - i think we can remove AA and KK from his range of hands, he goes bananas with those holdings (saw both happen already). I also think we can slightly discount TT, not positive he would be the turn , perhaps discount that as part of his range by 20%.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT -- this seems inconsistent. On the one hand, you are so sure that he won't bet his KK on an ace river that you are willing to fold; on the other hand, you are only slightly discounting the chance that be bets his TT into a board with 2 overcards on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not inconsistent, I was expressing flexibility with the other posters range - in fact I asked that it be discounted because TT played that way seems a bit odd by this player but its possible I guess. Lots of guys bet 2 streets and chicken out on the river with TT, this villain seems to check lots of rivers in general. Since we can nearly rule out AA and KK for sure he will likely shut down on the river with a 1 pair hand if an A falls because my hand looks like AK and thats what this player type usually does in similar situations.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

[ QUOTE ]


Not inconsistent, I was expressing flexibility with the other posters range - in fact I asked that it be discounted because TT played that way seems a bit odd by this player but its possible I guess. Lots of guys bet 2 streets and chicken out on the river with TT, this villain seems to check lots of rivers in general. Since we can nearly rule out AA and KK for sure he will likely shut down on the river with a 1 pair hand if an A falls because my hand looks like AK and thats what this player type usually does in similar situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case, I call a river ace for sure.

It's one thing to have an iron-clad live read and make a good fold that you could not justify online, for example. I don't think you should make the same kind of big fold based on general reasoning like you just gave.

If you had played hours and hours with him live and knew that he can fire 2 barrels but NEVER three it might be different. Here, it seems likely that this is the case but nowhere near certain.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

Fold the turn.

According to your description of his preflop standards as well as him being "weak postflop", you have got to believe you're up against TPTK or worse. Do you have odds to call the turn with just overcards? Even if an A hits, you're still behind AQ.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 11:1 on the river.

If an A hits his possible hands:outs
AA:1, KK:3, QQ:3, JJ:3, TT:6, AK:2, AQ:3

He wins: 10, you win:9 You tie:2.

Based on his betting and his smile he is most likely to have JJ or AQ. However, he could also have TT and have been smiling because he just took away 3 of your outs. Likewise, KK is possible too.

I would call an A with a bet on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rick - i think we can remove AA and KK from his range of hands, he goes bananas with those holdings (saw both happen already). I also think we can slightly discount TT, not positive he would be the turn , perhaps discount that as part of his range by 20%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Taking your reads that leaves us with the following combinations should an A hit on the river:

QQ:3, JJ:3, TT:~5, AK:2, AQ:3

He wins:9, You win:5 You Tie:2.

So without comsidering the meaning of the "sick smile" I would call the river getting 12:1 and expect to lose. Your read makes it closer, but I am trying to train myself not to fold big pots for one bet unless I am dead certain.

I would also consider the possibility that he raised KQs and even KQo from UTG.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you have odds to call the turn with just overcards?

[/ QUOTE ]
The T makes the nut straight so the odds are there.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

[ QUOTE ]
So without considering the meaning of the "sick smile" I would call the river getting 12:1 and expect to lose. Your read makes it closer, but I am trying to train myself not to fold big pots for one bet unless I am dead certain.

I would also consider the possibility that he raised KQs and even KQo from UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have the opposite issue, I rarely fold big pots - this one I think I can fold however. Thats why I asked if I was crazy in the OP. Getting 13:1 I only need to be good 8% of the time for a call to be +EV but I was not so sure I'm good even 5% of the time due to the combinations and read combined. Luckily I missed the A on the river so the decision wasn't a real-issue, but its an interesting situation.

I saw the villain open limp with KQs in late position, thats why I don't think I can include that within his range for an UTG open raise.


Jskills: if you fold the turn getting 11:1 then your making a BIG mistake.