My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

I thought this might be interesting to some. I know there was a thread on this sometime ago, but I figure another data point can't hurt.
Time are EST.
Tournaments were played at $11s (10%), $20s (70%), $30s (20%), and $50s (10%).
I realize this sample size isn't very large, but the trend is so pronounced that I'd be very surprised if variance alone accounts for it.

NOON-4PM: 647 tournaments, 4% ROI, 36% ITM

4PM-8PM: 1097 tournaments, 11% ROI, 39% ITM

8PM-MIDNIGHT: 1107 tournaments, 17% ROI, 40% ITM

MIDNIGHT-4AM: 753 tournaments, 13% ROI, 39% ITM

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

wow, thx for the info.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

Well it reflects the general opinion of the forum, although I'm hoping the cause of that 4% ROI is variance (this is $22, daytime can't be much tougher??).

I usually work a few hours somewhere between 10am-4pm here. That's 6pm-midnight ET [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

veeeeeery interesting, thanks for the post.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

EST?

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

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EST?

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U.S. East (Coast) Standard Time. I think we're 6 hours behind GST.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

Is there similar discussion with cash games (small stakes hold'em in particular). If there is, can anyone give me a link to it. Still haven't figured out the search feature hehe.
I haven't played too many hands off my peak hours, which is 8pm-2am EST, but in the games that I did play during daytime, I noticed substantially less attractive games and tougher competition. I don't have any data to back it up. Just saying I noticed a difference from my small sample size.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

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NOON-4PM: 647 tournaments, 4% ROI, 36% ITM

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Great, now I have a legitimate excuse for sleeping til 4...thanks!

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

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Great, now I have a legitimate excuse to do something else with my life until 4pm

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[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

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NOON-4PM: 647 tournaments, 4% ROI, 36% ITM

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Great, now I have a legitimate excuse for sleeping til 4...thanks!

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Sorry to rain on your parade, but just because my noon-4pm ROI is 4%, it definitely doesn't follow that a smart monkey couldn't have 20%.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

man, I feel so much better about myself now - which shouldn't mean anything at all to you. Nice numbers ilya.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

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Nice numbers ilya.

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thank you, thank you. i'm not wrld champion for nothing you know.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

Thanks for that data. I did lazy man's math and estimated you netted 11,000. How many tables did you play at a time, and over how many months of playing was this?

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

Nice post. I wish I could play different hours. :<

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

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Thanks for that data. I did lazy man's math and estimated you netted 11,000. How many tables did you play at a time, and over how many months of playing was this?

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About 2 and a half months, anywhere from 4 to 9 tables. Probably over half in the 4-6 tabling range. I wish I could have excluded my recent 900 SnG run at 5% at the $22s, but it's in there. That run is 60-70% 6-8 tabling.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

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NOON-4PM: 647 tournaments, 4% ROI, 36% ITM

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Great, now I have a legitimate excuse for sleeping til 4...thanks!

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This is when you should want to be on! Play at ilya's table between noon-4, easy money!

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

Did you include weekends in this?

Most of my noon-4 and 4-8 play is on weekends and holidays with the occational sickday.

My number are extremely consistent across time periods and weekends verse weekdays(~4000 total), but my sample size of off peak weekday tournies is fairly small.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

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Did you include weekends in this?

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Yes, and I play the same amount, proportionately, on weekends as on weekdays.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

"I thought this might be interesting to some. I know there was a thread on this sometime ago, but I figure another data point can't hurt."


Could someone link to the original thread? I've been looking for that for weeks.

Thanks so much.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

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"I thought this might be interesting to some. I know there was a thread on this sometime ago, but I figure another data point can't hurt."


Could someone link to the original thread? I've been looking for that for weeks.

Thanks so much.

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Here is the original post about daytime and ROI correlation

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...SID=&fpart=


Weird, these two different studies have two different results. I personally think that something that is not taken into account is that different people might play better or worse at given times e.g. I play better poker in the morning b/c I can concentrate better. I think your own internal clock is one of the most important things in dealing with playing times and ROI%

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

Doesn't this mean that Europeans should get more credit for their ROI's? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I never play later than midnight here, and that's 6PM in your time.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

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Doesn't this mean that Europeans should get more credit for their ROI's? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I never play later than midnight here, and that's 6PM in your time.

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Not as far as I'm concerned...I hold you guys to a higher standard when it comes to matters of the brain.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

Ilya, I just wanted to give a collective thanks to you from the forum. I think it's nice to see someone who I think most forum members here trust to be honest, post a significant number of tourneys with their statistical outcomes. My fuzzy math shows a ~ 39% ROI and ~15% ROI. I think these numbers are very solid. And it's refreshing to see over all the unaudited claims of "I have 5000+ tourneys at 23% ROI at the $33s" posts. While I have some doubts about those posts (and I really could care less), I think it's good for most readers to see that these are typical good numbers for a solid multi-tabler. Good job.

Scuba

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

I see that your playing times "conveniently" dodge the DreadedSkip [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

excellent point

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

Dear Scooby_Chick,

Thank you for contacting us.

We would like to express our appreciation of your positive feedback.

Sincerely,

Shiva Nataraja,
Destroyer of All.


[ QUOTE ]
Ilya, I just wanted to give a collective thanks to you from the forum. I think it's nice to see someone who I think most forum members here trust to be honest, post a significant number of tourneys with their statistical outcomes. My fuzzy math shows a ~ 39% ROI and ~15% ROI. I think these numbers are very solid. And it's refreshing to see over all the unaudited claims of "I have 5000+ tourneys at 23% ROI at the $33s" posts. While I have some doubts about those posts (and I really could care less), I think it's good for most readers to see that these are typical good numbers for a solid multi-tabler. Good job.

Scuba

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Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

Ilya,
Did you notice any days were particularly better or worse?

Max

Results by weekday
 

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Ilya,
Did you notice any days were particularly better or worse?

Max

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Here are my stats by day of the week:
(tournaments played/ITM/ROI)
(about 60 more tournaments in there now)

Monday: 542/37%/7%

Tuesday: 518/38%/15%

Wednesday: 428/39%/21%

Thursday: 501/36%/-1%

Friday: 655/39%/14%

Saturday: 401/39%/14%

Sunday: 659/41%/17%.

The samples are too small, really, but I'll update this post as I play more tournaments.

WTF is up with Thursday!

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

The difference between 4pm-8pm and 8pm-midnight is almost scary. Same ITM and 6 points lower on ROI.

Re: Results by weekday
 

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Saturday: 401/39%/14%


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As a lifetime loser on Saturday let me say that you are my hero of the week.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

What about your hourly rates for these times? Also, what do you use to track your data? Anyone else have these kind of stats they can post so we can compare and see how much may be due to player specific factors?

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

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What about your hourly rates for these times? Also, what do you use to track your data? Anyone else have these kind of stats they can post so we can compare and see how much may be due to player specific factors?

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I use SnG Tracker. Honestly, I'm embarassed to post my hourly rates.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

Enough of this already.

Let's test the significance of hypothesis that results differ by time of day.

For simplicity I'll take that the std on RoI of a tourney is 165%. Std actually depends on RoI, but I will neglect that.

Ilya, you needed to give an extra significant digit for all results, but I'll work with what you gave.

NOON-4PM: 647 tournaments, (4.0+-6.5)% ROI, (36.0+-1.9)% ITM
4PM-8PM: 1097 tournaments, (11.0+-5.0)% ROI, (39.0+-1.5)% ITM
8PM-MIDNIGHT: 1107 tournaments, (17.0+-5.0)% ROI, (40.0+-1.5)% ITM
MIDNIGHT-4AM: 753 tournaments, (13.0+-6.0)% ROI, (39.0+-1.8)% ITM

Average: 12.0% RoI, 38.8% ITM

Chi^2: 2.61/3 DoF (degrees of freedom) RoI; 2.89/3 DoF ITM.

The numbers you observed are perfectly in line with random deviation from the average.

What makes the significance of your claim worse is observer's bias. If you saw results that did not show the trend you expected, you would be more likely to think that your samples are small, and less likely to report the results.

Nobody needs stats to know that RoI is better in the evening, but your stats alone are way short of making any observational claims.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

Hi Izverg,

How much larger would my sample size have to have been for these results to have statistical significance?

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

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Hi Izverg,

How much larger would my sample size have to have been for these results to have statistical significance?

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That would depend on how much deviation per time of day there really is. If the deviation is as large as you found it from your limited samples, you'd only need ~5 times more data to start making significant claims. If the deviation is smaller, you'd need more.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

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Hi Izverg,

How much larger would my sample size have to have been for these results to have statistical significance?

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That would depend on how much deviation per time of day there really is. If the deviation is as large as you found it from your limited samples, you'd only need ~5 times more data to start making significant claims. If the deviation is smaller, you'd need more.

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I see, thanks.
Now I guess I should go read a book so I can understand the math you used to reach your conclusions.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

Well I think surely that's more important than ROI isn't it really? And I ask because having achieved my first 1000 tournaments, I have found that a decent ROI doesn't appear to translate to a decent hourly rate, a thing I don't really understand, so i'd like to see how it matches up for a successful player like yourself... c'mon

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

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Well I think surely that's more important than ROI isn't it really? And I ask because having achieved my first 1000 tournaments, I have found that a decent ROI doesn't appear to translate to a decent hourly rate, a thing I don't really understand, so i'd like to see how it matches up for a successful player like yourself... c'mon

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Well here's the thing, I like to 4-table because I feel that I make better decisions and I enjoy playing much more when I have time to observe players, make copious notes, make read-based plays, etc....it makes me feel like a human being rather than a money-making robot...also I like to chat...also I am much less susceptible to tilt when I play fewer tables...Also I find that I can 4-table continuously almost indefinitely, whereas if I try to 8-table continuously, I get flustered and burnt out after 2-3 hours and have to take a break. Also I only have 1 monitor, and the little tables strain my already-bad eyes. Soooo....my hourly rate is like $22/hr at the $22s.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

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$22/hr at the $22s.

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Better than working in a factory.

Re: My stats over the last 3677 tournaments by 4-hour time blocks
 

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$22/hr at the $22s.

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Better than working in a factory.

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Not if the factory is unionized and comes with service based hourly rates, a big fat pension benefit, post-ret health benefits, and a health plan and insurance benefits. The value of those things can be massive but not transparent. Some of those guys make a pretty sweet haul.