NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

In advance of the Patriots vs. Colts armageddon, the books have put up many of their props early. I see many soft lines for this game, and have bet on several already. The chances of all of these hitting aren't high, but I can only hope for the best.

Randy Moss under 1.5 touchdowns scored at -110 for 2 units (VIP/BetGameDay). Based on his 2007 performance thus far, he's 50/50 covering this line. Of course, the Patriots have not faced an offense as good as the Colts (i.e., one that keeps Brady off the field) or a defense that shuts down #1 WRs as well (Colts are the best in DVOA, and a top 5 pass defense overall). Plus, the Patriots have too many other players who can score (and have scored) TDs. One TD for Moss seems most likely. I'd say the chances of two or more are 25 to 30 percent at best.

Joseph Addai -2 fantasy points vs. Laurence Maroney at -135 for 1 unit (Bodog). I have Addai scoring about 19 or 20, and Maroney at 12 or 13. Addai will see about as many carries and get as many rushing yards. He'll cover based on PPR and receiving yards. Even if the Patriots jump to a huge lead, I think Addai will rack up points on dump passes.

Peyton Manning under 24.5 pass completions at +110 for 1 unit (VIP/BetGameDay). The line is 25.5/-120 at Bodog. I refuse to pay 30 cents for 1 completion, especially when Brady could easily keep the Colts offense off the field. My projections suggest a line closer to 22 or 23.

That's all for the time being, especially given the uncertain status of Marvin Harrison. I also don't really like any of Bodog's other fantasy scoring lines except for one dog that I'll wait on to see if things improve before Sunday afternoon.

YTD: 20-16, +1.57 units

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

Will Mike Vrabel score a touchdown?
I'm all over the No at -310.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Will Mike Vrabel score a touchdown?
I'm all over the No at -310.

[/ QUOTE ]

is this feking f'real?

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

Yeah, max bet is $500. Get it while you can. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

<3 Bodog Props

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, max bet is $500. Get it while you can. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Already there [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

I'm sold on the Vrabel bet, but won't count it for record-keeping purposes.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

What do we think of the +16 1/2 NFC (-115) SuperBowl line? Seems like an overreaction and too large for a neutral site like AZ.

Card

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
What do we think of the +16 1/2 NFC (-115) SuperBowl line? Seems like an overreaction and too large for a neutral site like AZ.

Card

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, they had that at 12.5 when it was up last week.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

well who's going to be representing the NFC, Dallas? GB? I just see it as there's NE, and Indy, then everyone else. After this weekend I'm hoping it's NE then everyone else. 16.5 is a ton to lay in a superbowl though, but the Pats already laid a whooping on one of the top contenders. I think it's a great bet if you like the NFC to be competitive, since the line won't be that high for the game.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
+16 1/2 NFC (-115) SuperBowl line

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this worth maxing simply for the middle possibilities?

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

I'd wait till after this weekend for that one.. if the Pats win they are going to be huge fav's to go to the superbowl and win and might not have a big middle opportunity as they are gonna be laying a lot of points vs any NFC team, unless they happen to improve dramatically in the 2nd half of the season.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, max bet is $500. Get it while you can. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Already there [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

(NE vs IND) Sun, Nov 4th (4:15pm)
Will Mike Vrabel score a Touchdown?

Must play for action. Game must go 55 minutes for action. Overtime counts towards wager. No Parlays. Max $500 (This Prop is Closed for Betting) [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Randy Moss under 1.5 touchdowns scored at -110 for 2 units (VIP/BetGameDay). ... I'd say the chances of two or more are 25 to 30 percent at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is actually true, shouldn't you be betting more than 2 units? I love that prop too.



[ QUOTE ]
Joseph Addai -2 fantasy points vs. Laurence Maroney at -135 for 1 unit (Bodog).

[/ QUOTE ]

What's Bodog's scoring for fantasy props? I'm guessing

10 yards rush/rec per point, 20 yards passing
6 for a rushing/rec TD, 4 for passing TD
no PPR
no fumble penalty
no fractional points
total yardage rounded down (e.g., 37 yards receiving and 49 rushing would first be added to get 86, then rounded to 80, yielding 8 points)

How close am I?

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

This is for Bodog:

http://www.fantasy.bodoglife.com/ima...es/scoring.gif

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
If this is actually true [about the Moss bet], shouldn't you be betting more than 2 units?

[/ QUOTE ]
In theory, yes. But I am too risk-averse to Kelly given that this is only my second season betting NFL props. Plus I am still relatively inexperienced betting sports generally. Glad that you like the pick, though.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, max bet is $500. Get it while you can. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Already there [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

(NE vs IND) Sun, Nov 4th (4:15pm)
Will Mike Vrabel score a Touchdown?

Must play for action. Game must go 55 minutes for action. Overtime counts towards wager. No Parlays. Max $500 (This Prop is Closed for Betting) [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I know sportsbook.com isnt too respected, but they have this at -340.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

Any love for Anthony Gonzalez over 2 1/2 catches (even) on Bodog?

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

I would stay away from any prop bet on the Colts receivers until we find out if Marvin Harrison is playing.

And even if Harrison is out, Gonzalez is probably Peyton's 4th option at best (Wayne, Clark, Addai).

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

i like the gonzo bet, and line is moving

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

Why like the Gonzo bet? He's not getting the ball thrown his way much even with Harrison out (Harrison is doubtful this weekend). He had a 7 reception game, a 3 reception game, and the other five have all been under.

I'd rather bet the under here if the line moves to 3 or 3.5.

- C -

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

Well I am thinking the Pats want to take away Clark and Wayne(I know easier said than done) and if that is the case, I think Manning has a history of completing passes to whoever you leave open. Obviously this means dump offs to Addai as well, but I think Gonzo gets some love, and the line has moved that direction.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why like the Gonzo bet? He's not getting the ball thrown his way much even with Harrison out (Harrison is doubtful this weekend). He had a 7 reception game, a 3 reception game, and the other five have all been under.

I'd rather bet the under here if the line moves to 3 or 3.5.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking is that NE is gonna double Wayne if Harrison is out, leaving Clark and Gonzo some opportunities. I also think it will be high scoring with Indy throwing the ball often. Whats the line on Mannings completions? 24? I like 1/8 of those going to a starting WR. Of course if Harrison plays this looks much shakier.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
My thinking is that NE is gonna double Wayne if Harrison is out

[/ QUOTE ]

Who hasn't tried to do this already?

- C -

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My thinking is that NE is gonna double Wayne if Harrison is out

[/ QUOTE ]

Who hasn't tried to do this already?

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

Who has tried that is 8-0?

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My thinking is that NE is gonna double Wayne if Harrison is out

[/ QUOTE ]

Who hasn't tried to do this already?

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

Who has tried that is 8-0?

[/ QUOTE ]

So your argument is that the 8-0 team can do what every other team hasn't done and shut down the big weapons, but can't do what every other team has done and can't shut down the rookie 4th option?

- C -

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

Tom Brady u3.5 TD passes is at -190 haha

Over is at +145. Anyone have a guess as to when that becomes +EV?

this is on bodog btw

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My thinking is that NE is gonna double Wayne if Harrison is out

[/ QUOTE ]

Who hasn't tried to do this already?

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

Who has tried that is 8-0?

[/ QUOTE ]

So your argument is that the 8-0 team can do what every other team hasn't done and shut down the big weapons, but can't do what every other team has done and can't shut down the rookie 4th option?

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

No, that is not my argument.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tom Brady u3.5 TD passes is at -190 haha

Over is at +145. Anyone have a guess as to when that becomes +EV?

this is on bodog btw

[/ QUOTE ]

um I think the under is +EV at -190.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

Bodog has put up more props. I have some additional picks:

Larry Fitzgerald under 93.5 receiving yards at -125 for 1 unit (Bodog). This line seems 10 to 15 yards too high. I can see him racking up yards only through a ton of receptions due to the Tampa 2. His big numbers in recent weeks have come from at least one long reception each game, which seems less likely to happen against the Bucs. Plus, Boldin's re-emergence means fewer targets.

Bobby Wade under 48.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). He's questionable to play, and has surpassed this figure only twice so far. San Diego figures to own the ball, although I can imagine Wade covering through garbage time production if the Chargers jump to a huge lead (which is why this is only a 1-unit bet). Then again, if the game reaches that point, the Vikings may take him out to prevent further injury.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

Tom Brady - total QB rating
under 130.2 -120

As disgustingly good as Brady has been this year, he's still only exceeded that number in 3 out of 8 games. In the previous 4 seasons, he had 1 game out of 64 with higher than a 130.2 rating. The Colts have a QB rating against of 69.9, 3rd best in the league.

Also they have Brady to throw an interception at -115. If he throws even one, it's nearly impossible to have a QB rating over 130.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tom Brady - total QB rating
under 130.2 -120

As disgustingly good as Brady has been this year, he's still only exceeded that number in 3 out of 8 games. In the previous 4 seasons, he had 1 game out of 64 with higher than a 130.2 rating. The Colts have a QB rating against of 69.9, 3rd best in the league.

Also they have Brady to throw an interception at -115. If he throws even one, it's nearly impossible to have a QB rating over 130.

[/ QUOTE ]

this seems like a really good bet to me.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

Nice. On the Brady passer rating prop for 2 units. I have him projected for a rating of around 113. Even if he doesn't throw a pick, given my other projections he would finish around 122.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tom Brady - total QB rating
under 130.2 -120

As disgustingly good as Brady has been this year, he's still only exceeded that number in 3 out of 8 games. In the previous 4 seasons, he had 1 game out of 64 with higher than a 130.2 rating. The Colts have a QB rating against of 69.9, 3rd best in the league.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nice find. I hit it for the max. This prop has got to be very high +EV.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tom Brady - total QB rating
under 130.2 -120

As disgustingly good as Brady has been this year, he's still only exceeded that number in 3 out of 8 games. In the previous 4 seasons, he had 1 game out of 64 with higher than a 130.2 rating. The Colts have a QB rating against of 69.9, 3rd best in the league.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nice find. I hit it for the max. This prop has got to be very high +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

heh they just closed it.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

Yeah, I just added what was left of my Bodog balance on that bet, so I have a total of about 2.8u on it. Just realized I have over 14u on various bets in this game, go Colts! Not counting my bridge-jumper "team won't go 19-0" bets, one of which will pay off this week, freeing up some bankroll.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]

Nice find. I hit it for the max. This prop has got to be very high +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome, glad at least some of you were able to get it before they took it down.

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Nice find. I hit it for the max. This prop has got to be very high +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome, glad at least some of you were able to get it before they took it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

btw - sorry if this is off topic, but since I take advantage of this thread I thought I would throw something back. If anyone wants a free $25 there is an arb that has been hanging for awhile.

Cincy/ Buffalo 4th quarter
betjamaica 10.5o +105
5dimes 10.5u +105

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

Also:

Adrian Peterson vs. LaDainian Tomlinson Rush Yds.

Peterson +5.5 +115 (TheGreek)
Tomlinson -4.5 -105 (WSEX)

Re: NFL Week 9 player props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he throws even one, it's nearly impossible to have a QB rating over 130.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wooooot! Thank you Mr. Bethea!