Justin Morneau
 

schneids is delusional.

a couple days ago he tells me that:

morneau is a 1.5-1 favorite to hit .320 or better this season.
he is even money to hit 39 homeruns or more this season.
he is even money to get 127 RBI this season.

schneids prediction for morneau this year
.338/43hr/139rbi

he is obviously out of his mind.

please somebody agree with me?

Re: Justin Morneau
 

He has money.

Don't you have money?

How about you make some money!

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
schneids is delusional.

a couple days ago he tells me that:

morneau is a 1.5-1 favorite to hit .320 or better this season.
he is even money to hit 39 homeruns or more this season.
he is even money to get 127 RBI this season.

schneids prediction for morneau this year
.338/43hr/139rbi

he is obviously out of his mind.

please somebody agree with me?

[/ QUOTE ]

.338? LOL. I agree with you.

Re: Justin Morneau
 

BA is by far your best bet, but they are all good.

Re: Justin Morneau
 

B-E-T-S BETS BETS BETS BETS

Re: Justin Morneau
 

Canadians can play baseball?

Impossible..

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
BA is by far your best bet, but they are all good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Justin Morneau
 

I'll give Schneids 9:2 against Morneau being > .320/39/127 for up to 20 whole dollars.

Re: Justin Morneau
 

delusional sure, but I really hope he's right

Re: Justin Morneau
 

schneids thinks just because he runs sick hot all the time that morneau will as well

Re: Justin Morneau
 

who da hell is schneids

Morneau will be >.300/30/110. But <.325/35/125.

Re: Justin Morneau
 

5 games in:

.353/2hr/5rbi

pace:

.353/65hr/162rbi

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
5 games in:

.353/2hr/5rbi

pace:

.353/65hr/162rbi

[/ QUOTE ]

it's science, ship schneids the moneys

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
5 games in:

.353/2hr/5rbi

pace:

.353/65hr/162rbi

[/ QUOTE ]

please to be betting me

Re: Justin Morneau
 

actually if schneids puts a substantial bet on morneau i would expect morneau to hit like .400 and make little baby morneaus with your mom

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
actually if schneids puts a substantial bet on morneau i would expect morneau to hit like .400 and make little baby morneaus with your mom

[/ QUOTE ]

the second part seems fine

Re: Justin Morneau
 

Justin Morneau, you mean the guy in my avatar?

.320/40/120 no problem.

Re: Justin Morneau
 

man jeter really did have a better season, unfortunate because he probably won't be a legite contender again for the rest of his career

ya morneau is a stupid canadian

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
Justin Morneau, you mean the guy in my avatar?

.320/40/120 no problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

for god's sake why won't you people bet me

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Justin Morneau, you mean the guy in my avatar?

.320/40/120 no problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

for god's sake why won't you people bet me

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Justin Morneau, you mean the guy in my avatar?

.320/40/120 no problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

for god's sake why won't you people bet me

[/ QUOTE ]

cause i have no way of paying money in the remote chance that he doesn't reach those marks. i am a stand up guy and am not going to agree to a bet i have no way of paying (or no way of paying that wouldn't be a major pain in the ass). without neteller my life's suck knob has been turned up big time (balla fubar reference).

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Justin Morneau, you mean the guy in my avatar?

.320/40/120 no problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

for god's sake why won't you people bet me

[/ QUOTE ]

cause i have no way of paying money in the remote chance that he doesn't reach those marks. i am a stand up guy and am not going to agree to a bet i have no way of paying (or no way of paying that wouldn't be a major pain in the ass). without neteller my life's suck knob has been turned up big time (balla fubar reference).

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you own envelopes, stamps, and checks?

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you own envelopes, stamps, and checks?

[/ QUOTE ]

what are these stamps you are talking about?
what are these checks you are talking about?

Re: Justin Morneau
 

Meh, I think there is no reason why he won't hit about the same as he did last year, probably won't improve on it much but I doubt he falls off much either. I dunno about the power numbers- RBI are going to be determined by someone getting on in front of him, but his average should be >.320 without much trouble. I've read a couple different sources that predicted he'd win the batting title this year (which I think is a little ambitious).

Frankly as I've made it known in the past I tend to disagree with everyone and their formulaic way of thinking about baseball- I just don't see why everyone is so quick to say last year was some type of fluke and this he has to do worse this year.

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you own envelopes, stamps, and checks?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cheques

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
Meh, I think there is no reason why he won't hit about the same as he did last year, probably won't improve on it much but I doubt he falls off much either. I dunno about the power numbers- RBI are going to be determined by someone getting on in front of him, but his average should be >.320 without much trouble. I've read a couple different sources that predicted he'd win the batting title this year (which I think is a little ambitious).



[/ QUOTE ]


You see no reason? How about the season before last, when he batted .239 over 543 PA and the year before that where he batted .271 over 312 PA? His most recent performance is obviously the most important, but completely ignoring the 2 before that is insane. Penciling him in to 'see no reason' why he wouldn't have another career year avg wise is baffling and while it could certainly happen it's not exactly likely.

James

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]


schneids prediction for morneau this year
.338/43hr/139rbi



[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, I don't think he's a .338 hitter yet, so that seems a touch high. 43hr OK. RBI's are a bit high too, as long as they have a little leaguer (Punto) hitting 2nd, cutting down on his chances.

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


schneids prediction for morneau this year
.338/43hr/139rbi



[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, I don't think he's a .338 hitter yet, so that seems a touch high. 43hr OK.

[/ QUOTE ]

WHY IS IT OKAY TO SAY YOUR PREDICTION IS A 26% INCREASE OVER A GUYS PREVIOUS CAREER HIGH?! HE HAD 41 HR IN THE PREVIOUS 855 PA BEFORE LAST SEASON!

James

Re: Justin Morneau
 

.280/36/120

Book it.

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]

WHY IS IT OKAY TO SAY YOUR PREDICTION IS A 26% INCREASE OVER A GUYS PREVIOUS CAREER HIGH?! HE HAD 41 HR IN THE PREVIOUS 855 PA BEFORE LAST SEASON!

James

[/ QUOTE ]

Before last season, he tried to pull everything. Last year, he became a better hitter by going with the outside pitch and driving them to left and left center, making him a tougher out and a better, more complete hitter. He's a different player than he was when he first came up. I think 43 HR might be a tad high, but I could see him doing something like .310/38/125

OTOH, he's also very capable of hitting Schneid's predicted numbers too. He's the reigning MVP after all!!!!!!!!

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
OTOH, he's also very capable of hitting Schneid's predicted numbers too. He's the reigning MVP after all!!!!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

bwahahahaha!!! sorry. i thought you were being funny.

getting the award (as in not winning it. yeah, i am bitter) last season means nothing. yes, he improved his hit-chart last season, but his BABIP suggests that he may have been running kind of hot (as in lucky) after the AS break. .365 is high. high enough that only a few players a year do it, and most don't repeat.

sure, he probably won't regress down to .300 BABIP, but figures like .335-.340 are closer to where he *should* average. basically, this is why pretty much all of the prediction systems (Marcel, CHONE, ZiPS) say that his 2007 season will be around .300/33/100.

perhaps you could bump that line up because of his improved swing, but not necessarily 20 point and 20 rbi's.

anyways, that's just my 2 cents. also, i'd put $50 on morneau doing worse than .320/40/130.

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Meh, I think there is no reason why he won't hit about the same as he did last year, probably won't improve on it much but I doubt he falls off much either. I dunno about the power numbers- RBI are going to be determined by someone getting on in front of him, but his average should be >.320 without much trouble. I've read a couple different sources that predicted he'd win the batting title this year (which I think is a little ambitious).



[/ QUOTE ]


You see no reason? How about the season before last, when he batted .239 over 543 PA and the year before that where he batted .271 over 312 PA? His most recent performance is obviously the most important, but completely ignoring the 2 before that is insane. Penciling him in to 'see no reason' why he wouldn't have another career year avg wise is baffling and while it could certainly happen it's not exactly likely.

James

[/ QUOTE ]

You are absolutely correct, as I have never seen someone make an adjustment that improved their hitting during the season or off-season. I generally assume that someone's first 2 years or so of irregular, injury infested at bats are about as good as I'm going to get.

Because I struggled so hard to find anyone who could defeat the trend of improving on their first two years to fulfill their potential, I had to search long and hard to locate Rodriguez, Alex and see that in 1997 he had a paltry 23 diggers in his second full season. Man, you'd probably have traded him for a bucket of balls and some pine tar at that point because after a season like that it's hard to believe he could improve at all!

There's another guy I like and I think fits in well here because of his (former) position and team- David Ortiz! Look at that fat oaf, how could anyone possibly think that someone his size with incredible minor league numbers and strength would ever improve on his 37 home runs in his first 1000+ at bats?

James, thanks for the eye opening conclusion- it doesn't matter what he did, look at what he did before and recognize the fact that young hitters with tons of potential, size and minor league numbers can never improve on their rocky starts to become MVP caliber players! BTW when ARE you taking over that GM job, hack?

Re: Justin Morneau
 

Put your money where your mouth is, it's real simple.

Re: Justin Morneau
 

will one of you idiots bet me already

Re: Justin Morneau
 

Hey I never said he'd improve on last year, I just think that people suggesting that .280/25/90 will be his line this year are a little delusional.

I'd put his line for this year at .325/32/125 or so and be happy with that type of production. If someone wants to take a bet that he doesn't meet something like that I'm more than willing to do so. I'm not quite as crazy as everyone else I guess.

Re: Justin Morneau
 

Okay, put me on the under on Morneau's BA.

Most I'd be willing to risk is probably ~$25,000.

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hey I never said he'd improve on last year, I just think that people suggesting that .280/25/90 will be his line this year are a little delusional.

I'd put his line for this year at .325/32/125 or so and be happy with that type of production. If someone wants to take a bet that he doesn't meet something like that I'm more than willing to do so. I'm not quite as crazy as everyone else I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

not the line i wanted, but i'll go $20. PM me.

edit: eh, make it $50 if you want. (kyleb/thay3r are giving me bet envy)

Re: Justin Morneau
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hey I never said he'd improve on last year, I just think that people suggesting that .280/25/90 will be his line this year are a little delusional.

I'd put his line for this year at .325/32/125 or so and be happy with that type of production. If someone wants to take a bet that he doesn't meet something like that I'm more than willing to do so. I'm not quite as crazy as everyone else I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take the under on his BA for up to $20,000.

Re: Justin Morneau
 

I'm sure I can find enough backers to handle close to six figures.

Fek being third in line though.

Re: Justin Morneau
 

put me on under .325 for all of my monies.


i think i am first in line though if delta k actually wants to bet anyone HA!