hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

Was thinking back at this hand and decided to post it:

This hand occured on the final table bubble of the WPT niagara. 10k buy in, 1st place: 1.5 mil, 18 - 10: 65k. Theres 10 or 11 people left i forget, i think 11.

I had been playin aggro at the start of the day but as my stack was devastatingly dwindling i had tightened up which i belive was clear to the table. It was also clear that I was extremely frustrated with the play on this day so far. Little had seen me play aggressive postflop in a hand against Scott Clements when I flatted him he checked to me and I bet with A 10 high. Little definitely views me as an online player with little to no live experience. He was playing aggressive putting pressure on people but nothing crazy and not overly supper aggro. He 3 bet Roothlus a lil while ago button vs sb and then folded to a shove.

Stack sizes: I had around 380k i think (i suck at knowing stack sizes and pot size in live tourneys asdjfhaskhsd)
Jonathan Little definitely had over a million chips at this point maybe 1.5 mil.

Blinds: 6k / 12k 2k ante

I have 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the cut off. Folds around to me, i make it 32k, jonathan little calls out of the BB.

The Flop: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

he checks to me, i bet 45k he insta-turbo-snap puts me all in

Thoughts on this hand? I was unsure weather to bet or check the flop but I decided there were too many horrendous turn cards to check and i would bet / reevaluate.

I know his check raise all in range is very wide with this kind of board but i was on the fence.

HAVE AT IT [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: also please include input on weather to bet or check the flop

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

Really easy fold

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

Little definitely views me as an online player with little to no live experience.
(i suck at knowing stack sizes and pot size in live tourneys asdjfhaskhsd)

Bad read Mr. Justice. LOL.

I'm pretty sure you're ahead but I'm also pretty sure he's got the Ac which alone makes it a coin flip plus whatever else he gots. MUCKEMSAYUHHHHHHHH

Devo

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

he has exactly Kc9 here, he loves the overbet shove w/ a decent draw play, have seen it from him a number of times.

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

sigh and fold

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

On the flop, is there anything in his range that you can protect your hand from? Does he pay off with worse? Can you now or will you later be able to fold out a better hand? I'd suggest the answer is largely no in each case. So I'd check behind, pleased that I've flopped top pair.

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

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he has exactly Kc9 here, he loves the overbet shove w/ a decent draw play, have seen it from him a number of times.

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What do you do with that hand here? Also I'm not sure but if he flips over a hand like that should we even be calling?

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

i think i like checking the flop, we're almost betting as a bluff really, and while it sucks if a club comes on the turn, he's not gonna be folding big clubs on the flop - and won't be paying off 3 barrels w/ < TP ten kicker, so i dont think we really lose anything by giving the free card. (overcards pairing is the suck, but meh)

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

ya I'd check behind a fair bit. If I did bet it'd be with the intention of calling a shove.

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

Fold, there are a tons of hands he could have here that you'd be drawing extremely slim, best case scenario is a flip -- he could have a small flush, a straight, two pair, top pair with a higher kicker with a flush draw, etc. Because your hand is useless on this board, I'd bet/fold the flop, pure continuation bet.

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

maybe it's the cash game mentality in me talking but i absolutely hate betting that flop. for exactly this reason.

sure it's gross if a club comes off after you check, but you have position, so you can evaluate the situation. and you don't have to lose a ton of chips with a 4 flush on board when you don't have it. that being said, waiting for a blank can ensure you get your money in really good.

oh and now i'd fold. a hand like KcQ or something like that is killing you, he could already have 2 pr, straight or flush... you're basically praying to be a coinflip and you're drawing dead when you're not

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

no its not the cash game mentality, i would not bet it either. make the semibluffs wait till the turn where they have less equity.

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

Like Todd Terry said, the best you can hope for is probably a flush draw (unless you're pretty sure he is bluffing and not semi-bluffing--which in this case might be impossibly hard to do). You could be looking at a set, a made flush, low-to-top pair and a king-high or ace-high flush draw, two overcards and a flush draw (small favorite), a straight and a flush draw (less likely because if he hits a random club, all he has is a jack or queen high flush draw), or an overpair with or without the flush draw. There is also a possibility that he is exploiting your smaller stack size by representing the above hands on a stone-cold bluff, but this is going to be improbable enough that folding will almost always be the better play here.

A lot of good tournament players will put a smaller stack all in with a flush draw if they put that player on top pair, and almost certainly with two overcards and a high flush draw. They don't want to gamble with 9-15 outters but they know that you want to gamble less than they do given that for you, it's for your tournament life. They also know that in the unlikelihood that you do call them, that they will still have a good shot at knocking you out and taking your entire stack. And in the case that they lose, they will still have a ton of chips. Even if you put him on exactly 2 little clubs, you will be 9 outs to a knock out short of the money. The best chip-ev play (calling against a 9 outter) is not the best tournament equity play as any MTT or SNG player will tell you.

Thus I agree with the cash game player-- I wouldn't bet the flop (which gives away information, that you are value betting a pair). In this tournament setting, even more than in a cash game setting, you're too vulnerable as a shorter stack to a flush draw all-in (because of the pressure of busting). I would check the flop and overbet the turn, enough to give him doubts as to if you have the flush or not, but at the same time protecting your top pair on the turn from a flush draw. The downside is that if a club hits on the turn, your hand is probably worthless against aggressive players who would bluff or bet the nut flush the same way.

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

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no its not the cash game mentality, i would not bet it either. make the semibluffs wait till the turn where they have less equity.

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I think checking is correct in 100% of poker games.

as played, though, I think you have to fold. the problem here is that even the hands he is defending from the draw all beat us.

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

Just as this board is very dangerous to us, it's very dangerous to Jon unless he's caught a big piece of it. The c-bet Zugwat made is +cEV unless Jon's jamming here with over 64.5% of his preflop calling range, which is totally impossible. I'd be surprised if it's over 10%.

Are there other lines here that are more +cEV? I doubt it, but if they exist, this is an end of the tournament spot where cEV and $EV diverge. The c-bet is an absolutely riskless, significantly +cEV play. Playing this marginal hand against someone who has you outchipped 4:1 to showdown where 1/2 the deck is going to make your hand look very weak is very dangerous, and I just wouldn't do it. Additionally, checking behind on the flop with marginal to good hands heads up is a metagame mistake against a good player IMO.

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

It's even worse to check without a plan to call or fold, because he is shoving this flop a good percentage of the time. He is almost never calling. bet/reevaluate seems like the worst line possible.

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

I check flop a lot with these stacks, i think this is definitely a check most of the time

as played I think call is a huge spew

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

I think a lot of people are saying to check the flop mostly because they see he has check-raised you. But if he had folded everyone would be saying it was standard.

As played, I think I fold.

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

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i think i like checking the flop, we're almost betting as a bluff really, and while it sucks if a club comes on the turn, he's not gonna be folding big clubs on the flop - and won't be paying off 3 barrels w/ < TP ten kicker, so i dont think we really lose anything by giving the free card. (overcards pairing is the suck, but meh)

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I didn't read the rest of the replies but I check here like almost every time (makes mental note in-case I'm playing vs. you fools) for like all these reasons


I honestly hate hate hate hate betting flops like this when he can be shoving soooo many things and like, we have to fold to a shove, so why bet anything remotely decent that might have showdown value?

Depending on opponents of course, if it's someone that is really passive that I know will just call with a naked club or w/e then I may bet, but very very rarely because I love making call downs here (and you should too, free chips)

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

Seems like its pretty much consensus that betting here sucks, and I agree.
Do we bet call AT no club? I think I do.
Do we bet/call JcTx? QcTx? KcTx? I think my line here is QcTx and I check it back with JcTx.
Thoughts?

PS: I've played a good bit with Jon but I don't think these decisions depend very much on the fact that he's the villain. I play it the same vs any competent, aggressive player.

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

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Seems like its pretty much consensus that betting here sucks, and I agree.
Do we bet call AT no club? I think I do.
Do we bet/call JcTx? QcTx? KcTx? I think my line here is QcTx and I check it back with JcTx.
Thoughts?

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that feels about right. I'd be okay with getting in most other pair + big clubs (Kc9x would be ok etc.) as well but probably wouldn't try to do it on purpose.

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

yea, my first instinct was to check back and I should have, as soon as i made the bet i knew it was bad. At this point already I could just feel the tourney slipping away from me and it was a terrible terrible feeling. Definitely was not playing my best poker on this day.

the feedback has been pretty insightful

I folded the hand and asked him later after i busted what he had. He said he had 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for top two

sigh

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

If you are folding to a c/r then check behind, because he certainly doing this a large percentage of the time with the majority of hands he is defending. As played, fold, you're flipping at best.

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

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yea, my first instinct was to check back and I should have, as soon as i made the bet i knew it was bad. At this point already I could just feel the tourney slipping away from me and it was a terrible terrible feeling. Definitely was not playing my best poker on this day.

the feedback has been pretty insightful

I folded the hand and asked him later after i busted what he had. He said he had 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for top two

sigh

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That's the thing. Timing tells against players of this calibre are pretty useless. I'm sure he could have been lying or whatever, but when he snap-shoves on this board you can't immediately think "he most likely has a high club or a big combo draw I call" because that's exactly what JLittle wants you to think.

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

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If you are folding to a c/r then check behind, because he certainly doing this a large percentage of the time with the majority of hands he is defending. As played, fold, you're flipping at best.

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Would you care to give us a range of hands he's defending with and a range he's jamming with and show how he's jamming over 50% of his defending range here on this board? There's no way that's correct.

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

Are you serious Todd? He's jamming like.... almost all of his range that continues

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

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Are you serious Todd? He's jamming like.... almost all of his range that continues

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I agree with that, maybe I misunderstood the other post. I thought he was saying that he's jamming with most of his preflop calling range, which is what I'm disagreeing with. I think, of the hands he's continuing after the flop with, he raising or jamming with 100%.

Edit: I took "defending" to mean calling out of the blind, rather than continuing on with the hand, which I think is what he meant, but only he can tell us.

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

fine, but then if we're folding to the raise, how can betting be good here? He doesn't have enough outs that giving a free card is nearly as big a worry as being pushed off the best hand, which will happen some huge percentage of the time. that's the point here.

you're right he might call with 44 and c/f the flop but guess what? we're gonna beat 44 on most turns and he might even bluff with KJh sometimes when a 2 peels off so we make even more...

edit: or just c/c with a 9 on the turn etc

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

meh, I had the T9 and thought I might get a call from Tx if I instapushed but it didnt happen. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

how are you playing JcTd?

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

definitely fold as played

Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
 

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meh, I had the T9 and thought I might get a call from Tx if I instapushed but it didnt happen. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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Would any of you like to give your opinion of Jonathon checking top 2 on this flop?

I don't think we can just assume OP is going to make a continuation bet here and if he checks behind is everyone check-folding the turn if a club hits?