200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

Villian is 17/9/1.9 This is from database can't recall any reads.

Pacific Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $49.2
UTG+1: $126
CO: $510.33
Button: $280.72
Hero: $209.3
BB: $341.35

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($8, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $6</font>, BB calls, 2 folds.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($20, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $16</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $39</font>, Hero calls.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($98, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $77</font>, Hero??

Give him credit for 66/78 and move on?
I cant see anything I beat here, this is way too strong for a 17/9 to be a flopped 2pair IMO. Maybe T9 but I think he'd fold flop with me leading into this many players.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

uhh no

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

tough spot i think its a fold here... totally player dependant imo. can u see him getting this excited over 2 pair when there is a str8 draw and possible sets out there???

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

Had not been at the table long so no reads other than stats over some datamined hands. I really can't see this being 2pair on this board unless he had KT diamonds maybe. IMO no way this is 94/64/96 and I think T9 folds flop.

Casper05, could you elaborate a little on your response?

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

very close, this has to be 78, but i still call and put 2pr hands in his range

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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uhh no

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Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

I could fold this with a better read. As it is I call, but I'm not atall happy about it.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

he is the BB, so i am going to put 2pr in his range and pray...

for the guys who advocate not folding, how do we play this?? shove over his turn raise, just call turn and then what on river??

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

Blocking bet on the river? I think about $50-60. Fold to a raise.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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he is the BB, so i am going to put 2pr in his range and pray...

for the guys who advocate not folding, how do we play this?? shove over his turn raise, just call turn and then what on river??

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I like hero's play if he calls.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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shove over his turn raise

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Pls don't do this. All you do is blow him off the few hands you might beat.

I fold river btw.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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shove over his turn raise

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Pls don't do this. All you do is blow him off the few hands you might beat.

I fold river btw.

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Really? Tons of 2 pair hands and draws/ draws with a pair. I laugh and shove turn all day.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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uhh no

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Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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shove over his turn raise

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Pls don't do this. All you do is blow him off the few hands you might beat.

I fold river btw.

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Really? Tons of 2 pair hands and draws/ draws with a pair. I laugh and shove turn all day.

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He is really passive. He has to have the case 4 to have 2 pr with the 4. Otherwise its just 96 and I would expect him to raise flop with that. Slowplaying till turn and then raising on the scare card would be strange. He should fold 9t on the flop, but maybe he doesn't and if he calls I would expect him to raise it on the turn. But thats really the only hand we beat. He is way to passive for me to think he is capable of ridic spewy move of calling our lead into 3 players and then semibluffing turn.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

do people really think that anyone folds T9 on the flop? even nits make me prove it on the turn.

this is actually a gross spot against the guy described. i kind of want to block river, but we don't know how heavily he may overvalue two pair.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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He should fold 9t on the flop

[/ QUOTE ] Sorry for the sidetrack, but really?? I'd call flop with 9T all day.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

i seriously doubt he folds T9 on the flop, and since he's passive i'm not convinced that he would raise 2p on the flop. i think we see 2p often enough to call the river.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

Solid(hopefully) player just led out into the field. Our kicker sucks, we still have to worry about two players behind us, we have reverse implied odds, and all most of you are doing is folding to further aggression which should certainly be coming.

It's really a weak play to call with 9t.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Solid(hopefully) player just led out into the field. Our kicker sucks, we still have to worry about two players behind us, we have reverse implied odds, and all most of you are doing is folding to further aggression which should certainly be coming.

It's really a weak play to call with 9t.

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sure it's a bad call but we make money in poker because people err. i see people (nits, even) make this call every day. it's not safe to assume that his nitty stats imply a certain amount of postflop intelligence.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

I would think he would raise two pair on the flop, but I would also think he would raise a set on this board as well. I think it is reasonable to expect a passive player to wait for a safe turn card to pop his 2 pair+.

I am unaware of Hero's image but I often have passive players (17/9/2 isn't really that passive, either) get fed up with me and semi bluff when they realize they aren't going to win often enough without hitting.

This is all the possible 2 pair hands, sets (only half the TT combos because I think this is raised preflop at least that often), A9dd/ATdd/QJdd/JTdd/J9dd.

53,460 games 0.031 secs 1,724,516 games/sec

Board: 9c 4d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 79.469% 79.45% 00.02% 42472 12.00 { 4c4s }
Hand 1: 20.531% 20.51% 00.02% 10964 12.00 { TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, 99, 66, AdTd, Ad9d, QdJd, JdTd, Jd9d, T9s, T6s, T4s, 96s, 94s, T9o, T6o, T4o, 96o, 94o }

Our equity is doubtfully quite this good as it is likely waited more towards sets than combo draws but I believe we are still a big favorite.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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sure it's a bad call but we make money in poker because people err. i see people (nits, even) make this call every day. it's not safe to assume that his nitty stats imply a certain amount of postflop intelligence.

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He should fold 9t on the flop, but maybe he doesn't and if he calls I would expect him to raise it on the turn.

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Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

I call here relatively easily. Personally would of pushed the turn but I see why this is probably not the best play (I mostly play 50nl and a little 100nl tho)

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

bukem i generally agree with you in this thread; what's your point? mine is that there's enough random retardation that i'd really struggle to muck it on the river but i do acknowledge its close.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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mine is that there's enough random retardation that i'd really struggle to muck it on the river

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I make plenty of calls that should be bad, but I'm relying on random retardation to make it a good call.

My point here is villain is passive and 9t is only hand that fits with random retardation.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

i agree, as far as specific hands go. throw in crap like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] SOME percentage of the time and it could sway this, if it's not there already. i have yet to see a pokerstoving with a range {9T, 9Ts, sets, 78s, 78} versus 44.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

does anyone raise preflop? i raise pf here to build pot incase that flop comes. As played i would put him on 9T,TT,78, 44 has 42% equity here.
but i still call river, because its pacific poker and you have a set.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

Calling with T9 here is a BIG leak IMO. Against the range I and most other players would lead out here, T9 is complete garbage. I also assume he has noticed from the few hands we have played that im TAG.

I did call the river, although I hated it and was very much a crying call. If there was a time bank on pacific I honestly believe I would have folded having had more of a chance to consider the situation.

He flipped over 66. Not surprising although I really kinda expected 78 but people love to slowplay sets even on drawy boards.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

How does villain having nitty 17/9 PF stats effect this hand? The only important info is really his AF of 2. He maybe just as retarded post flop as a 35/15.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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I could fold this with a better read. As it is I call, but I'm not atall happy about it.

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Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

wtf this isn't even close to a fold. You guys act like he has us beat 75% of the time? because that's close to the odds we're getting. The biggest mistake in this hand isnt whether to call or fold here, it's that we should've 3 bet the turn.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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I could fold this with a better read. As it is I call, but I'm not atall happy about it.

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The only read that would make me fold is if the guy was a reg that literally didn't raise anything but the absolute nuts.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

imo you are pretty naive here if you think he doesn't have an overset or the straight a very good percentage of the time.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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imo you are pretty naive here if you think he doesn't have an overset or the straight a very good percentage of the time.

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not 75%. Maybe 40%, but not enough to warrant not shoving the 3 betting the turn.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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imo you are pretty naive here if you think he doesn't have an overset or the straight a very good percentage of the time.

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ya rly.

we make fun of fish for overvaluing hands and not understanding relative hand strength but i swear 90% of this forum just goes LOLset and doesn't even read an interesting post.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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does anyone raise preflop? i raise pf here to build pot incase that flop comes. As played i would put him on 9T,TT,78, 44 has 42% equity here.
but i still call river, because its pacific poker and you have a set.

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I raise 77+ here, I guess a pot sweetener is okay but OOP and with the pot already being multi-way I usually just complete/check the baby pairs from SB/BB especially on pacific where you can still get paid in unraised pots

I can understand you saying "call because its pacific" but you still have to look at things in the context of each individual player and not the site as a whole.

Catch you at the tables later buddy!

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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imo you are pretty naive here if you think he doesn't have an overset or the straight a very good percentage of the time.

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ya rly.

we make fun of fish for overvaluing hands and not understanding relative hand strength but i swear 90% of this forum just goes LOLset and doesn't even read an interesting post.

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Same in part with Fly's top 2 deep thread imo.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

The guy is a 17/9/1.9. I think your overvaluing your reading ability given this opponent. Versus a reg at stars this may very well be a fold. But truthfully, I wouldn't be surprised to see something like AA/KK here, or even [censored] that you couldn't even think about.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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imo you are pretty naive here if you think he doesn't have an overset or the straight a very good percentage of the time.

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ya rly.

we make fun of fish for overvaluing hands and not understanding relative hand strength but i swear 90% of this forum just goes LOLset and doesn't even read an interesting post.

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Same in part with Fly's top 2 deep thread imo.

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Well I think Fly's top two deep is a super easy fold.

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

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How does villain having nitty 17/9 PF stats effect this hand? The only important info is really his AF of 2. He maybe just as retarded post flop as a 35/15.

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good point imarahil, he didnt raise or nething so i am not taking his preflop stats into play here, i am just focusing on his AF

Re: 200nl: Can I fold a set here?
 

Most players with these stats play very straightforwards and usually only raise the nuts in situations like these imo.