observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

$5/10 NL. $1000 stacks.

8 people in a limped pot. Hero has 33 in the BB and checks. Hero is known as a TAG who likes to trap on occasion and who is not a bluffer.

Flop:

J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Very solid SB, who has logged a lot of hands with hero and who is a big winner overall in this game, bets $40.

Hero calls; SB is capable of making big laydowns and a raise might give things away.

Solid TAG makes it $120 from MP+1.

An unknown in CO makes it $350.

Folded to the SB, who calls the $350.

Hero's action?

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

[ QUOTE ]
$5/10 NL. $1000 stacks.

8 people in a limped pot. Hero has 33 in the BB and checks. Hero is known as a TAG who likes to trap on occasion and who is not a bluffer.

Flop:

J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Very solid SB, who has logged a lot of hands with hero and who is a big winner overall in this game, bets $40.

Hero calls; SB is capable of making big laydowns and a raise might give things away.

Solid TAG makes it $120 from MP+1.

An unknown in CO makes it $350.

Folded to the SB, who calls the $350.

Hero's action?

[/ QUOTE ]

ALl in [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-JP

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

creed,

Get pissed off that he is about to get stacked with set under set.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

I don't play much NL and certainly not this high, but this seems like a time to get off bottom set. The point being:

look at it from SB's P.O.V - he has led into 7 people, then called a raise on a really dry board when he still has you to worry about. What would he play this way? Would it be normal to play the flop this way with 64? SB would fold any 1 pair hands to the raise here, right? He would fold some 2 pair combos also?

Even if SB somehow doesnt have us beat

i) He will likely have outs

ii) CO could well have us beat

iii) CO could have outs.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

I can't imagine a better chance than this for getting away from bottom set. 8 limpers, unraised pot PF, 3 people showing serious action after hero has already called. I mean, if SB is a solid winning player capable of making big laydowns then what is he calling with here.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

Yeah, set over set seems likely....but...who the hell raises this dry of a board with middle set? I think TAG was either going for limp-rr or play a big pot on the flop with AA/KK maybe. Ok, i cant even convince myself. its set over set. i still push.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

I was expecting a speech that began with: "In No Limit Texas Hold'em...."

WTF.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

WTF can they all have? Someone has to have a set, right? I fold.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

I think SB's hand range after the initial bet and cold-call does not include any one-pair hands. I don't think it even includes the worse two pairs, but I'll include them anyway. A draw is very unlikely IMO, I don't think 64 or 42 leads here into 7 people. So: JJ, 55, J5, J3, 53.

MP1's hand range is more wide, as he's only just raised a weak bet (albeit still into a wide field of players). I'll give him QJ, KJ, AJ, 64s, 53s, JJ, 55.

CO is scary. A big reraise after a bet and a raise in an 8way limped pot. In all seriousness, what hands do this. This is not a semibluff unless villain is pretty crazy. I know it's an "unknown" but I get the feeling someone who would semibluff with 64 here would become known very quickly. I'll give him 53s, JJ, 55.

Pokerstoving...

3,307,880 games 1.172 secs 2,822,423 games/sec

Board: Jd 5c 3h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 08.8130 % 08.81% 00.00% { 33 }
Hand 2: 16.6046 % 16.60% 00.01% { JJ, 55, J5s, J3s, 53s, J5o, J3o, 53o }
Hand 3: 10.3633 % 10.36% 00.00% { JJ, 55, AJs, KJs, QJs, 64s, 53s, AJo, KJo, QJo }
Hand 4: 64.2191 % 64.22% 00.00% { JJ, 55, 53s }

Only 9% equity. If you give CO J5s and J3s, which is actually fairly reasonable given his position and all the limpers, your equity improves to 22%. If you pushed and got called in each spot, you would be a little better than break even with all the money in the pot.

However, if you do shove, SOMEONE is likely now folding. Probably only one of them. That chance makes you -EV! Plus my hand range for SB seems pretty optimistic. So...fold.

The crux of this problem is how often CO can be semibluffing here. I think with most even OK players, the answer is very near never. However, if you throw in 64s to his hand range, even keeping J5 and J3 out....

9,897,400 games 3.484 secs 2,840,815 games/sec

Board: Jd 5c 3h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.5445 % 28.54% 00.00% { 33 }
Hand 2: 21.6521 % 21.60% 00.06% { JJ, 55, J5s, J3s, 53s, J5o, J3o, 53o }
Hand 3: 08.5228 % 07.63% 00.89% { JJ, 55, AJs, KJs, QJs, 64s, 53s, AJo, KJo, QJo }
Hand 4: 41.2805 % 40.44% 00.84% { JJ, 55, 64s, 53s }

BAM! Your equity is now 28%.

Errors, let me know. This post is too long.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

[ QUOTE ]
WTF can they all have? Someone has to have a set, right? I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

This looks like 55 for CO and JJ for SB. Easy fold.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

In my better moments I fold this with no problem. Even if you know nothing about the other guys, knowing SB is a solid player is enough-he's seen a call and two raises and he's cold-calling? You don't think he mucks J5 here? I know I would if in his position.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

is 55 an easy push?

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

[ QUOTE ]
is 55 an easy push?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not an easy one, but harder to refrain from pushing 55 than J5. Conceiving of a scenario in which 55 is good here is also difficult, but at least 55 beats 33 and might get called by 33 as well. The point is that the worse your hand is, the greater the extent to which you have to assume that MP+1 and CO are overplaying their hands.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

Yeah, this is set > set, but I get all my money in anyway.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

[ QUOTE ]
is 55 an easy push?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Not an easy one, but harder to refrain from pushing 55 than J5. Conceiving of a scenario in which 55 is good here is also difficult, but at least 55 beats 33 and might get called by 33 as well. The point is that the worse your hand is, the greater the extent to which you have to assume that MP+1 and CO are overplaying their hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

well, it may not have to be a push, depending on how you want to play it, but it is almost assuredly not a fold. your read on SB would have to be insanely good - specifically, you would have to know that he's not raising JJ out of the blinds, which would be rare - especially with all that dead money out there preflop.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

55 is an esay push.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

I think SB has 64. Who would cold call with JJ preflop or after all the action? If I had JJJ here, I am never giving 64 a chance to dry.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think SB has 64

[/ QUOTE ]
Solid winning TAG cold-calls two raises from 40 to 350 8 outs and absolutely no reason to believe that a couple more raises are coming? Not very likely IMO

[ QUOTE ]
Who would cold call with JJ preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

LOTS OF PEOPLE. Typical weak player talk is "every time I raise JJ an ace flops." I am never surprised to find out when somebody limped JJ preflop.

[ QUOTE ]
or after all the action?

[/ QUOTE ]

Some guy thinking that slowplaying on this dry board can't be that terrible of an idea. PEOPLE LOVE TO SLOWPLAY.

Kane, I think JJ is one of the perfect hands to illustrate that the way you, me, and most 2+2ers think about poker is significantly different from the way many strangers do.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

FF - this guy

[ QUOTE ]
Very solid SB, who has logged a lot of hands with hero and who is a big winner overall in this game

[/ QUOTE ]

does not think like this

[ QUOTE ]
LOTS OF PEOPLE. Typical weak player talk is "every time I raise JJ an ace flops." I am never surprised to find out when somebody limped JJ preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

[ QUOTE ]
FF - this guy

[ QUOTE ]
Very solid SB, who has logged a lot of hands with hero and who is a big winner overall in this game

[/ QUOTE ]

does not think like this

[ QUOTE ]
LOTS OF PEOPLE. Typical weak player talk is "every time I raise JJ an ace flops." I am never surprised to find out when somebody limped JJ preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

LA-not only weak players declne to raise JJ from the sb. There are some solid winning players who don't raise JJ from sb after 6 limpers. Also, this guy is also not the only person who could have JJ.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

i know dude - i have limped jj in the blinds in a full game when it was correct.

anyway, as i said before, your read would have to be INSANE to fold 55 here.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

[ QUOTE ]
i know dude - i have limped jj in the blinds in a full game when it was correct.

anyway, as i said before, your read would have to be INSANE to fold 55 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think with 55 here calling>pushing>folding. If I call here w/55 and then MP+1 reraises and CO reraises and solid TAG calls/pushes or CO calls and solid TAG pushes then I could talk myself into a fold

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

Would going broke here be an example of what Sklansky was saying is a leak of many 2+2ers? Er did I completely misinterpret his first post?

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

I think you got the hands wrong and description a little wrong (for your "observed" ahem, hand). I THINK, it was something like this, Hero had 44 UTG, and 6 players to a flop of:
J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain in SB bets $40, hero calls, TAG makes it $120, unknown (poster) makes it $350, Villain calls, and then Hero....

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, this is set > set, but I get all my money in anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? You are allowed to fold sets, especially when there is 18 way action like there is in this hand.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

[ QUOTE ]
is 55 an easy push?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, very easy.

Instead of having to worry about 55, we now have 55 and have a hand that we hope to be up against which fits the action perfectly - 33. Furthermore, the only hand that beats us (JJ) is significantly less likely than all the other possible hands.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

Rotain, I 100% agree 100% with all your ranges of hands, but I think those calculations clearly show this is a fold nonetheless.

I don't understand why people are so unwilling to fold here.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you got the hands wrong and description a little wrong (for your "observed" ahem, hand). I THINK, it was something like this, Hero had 44 UTG, and 6 players to a flop of:
J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain in SB bets $40, hero calls, TAG makes it $120, unknown (poster) makes it $350, Villain calls, and then Hero....

[/ QUOTE ]

I file off the serial numbers sometimes.

I reiterate that I was not in this hand.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, this is set > set, but I get all my money in anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? You are allowed to fold sets, especially when there is 18 way action like there is in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you dont understand, I'm not allowed to fold sets. If I do, someone kills a kitten in china or something, and I feel really bad when that happens. So, losing a stack is a little price to pay to saving a life. Plus, I still have some equity. Surely you agree?

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

if you fold a lower set everytime you're 95% sure someone has a higher set (looks like it here) you never give yourself a chance to spike quads. push.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

lol. you can still spike quads the times you have no idea you're up against a higher set.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

Yeah, I think I wrote fold in there somewhere. I just realized I didn't really make it clear.

I agree, 100% fold. I think I was the most forgiving as was possible with hand ranges; realistically after that action a set is more likely for CO and SB IMO.

To make up for my vaguery in previous post, again, fold.

fold
 

That's why I play 6max, but given the action I would fold easily.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

Well, what do you put the 3-bettor on? He's got to have 2 pr, and there is a good chance that he has your quad out. If I was Hero, I would have folded after Villain called.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

Isnt his range for sb way too wide?

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

If the range is too wide, that swings it even more towards a fold. As it is with that range, it's still a fold, so it doesn't matter.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

[ QUOTE ]
Rotain, I 100% agree 100% with all your ranges of hands, but I think those calculations clearly show this is a fold nonetheless.

I don't understand why people are so unwilling to fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, typo. I meant to say I DONT agree 100% with all the ranges.

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

yeah, seems like a clear fold

Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board
 

All, shouldnt we include the other 33 in our possible hand ranges? I think this leans it to a call.
-James