StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

About a month ago, our beloved <font color="green">Matrix</font> posted a thread where he said:

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Welcome to StatMonkey.

All of us regular players keep ever growing PokerTracker Databases, we read and try to use all kinds of statistical info to help us beat the players we face across the poker table.

Lots of us spends hours staring at HUDstats where helpful little userdefined numbers are displayed over the names of our opponents.

This thread in SSNL is a discussion about "Optimal Stats" and what they might look like. Players at uNL play far from Optimal strategy, lots of villains seem to play far from any kind of strategy.

This will hopefully be a series of threads about finding ways to exploit players at a uNL table with different stats.


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Now, this idea is entirely too good to let it die after one post. So, with apologies to '<font color="green">Trixy</font>, I'm reviving it with opponent #2.

Our new target is entirely different from our old one: he's a nit.

Don't panic -- nits are beatable! Let's think this through. Pulling from my $25NL database, I found a good one.

After 653 hands datamined, we know the following information:

VPIP: 8.42%
PFR: 4.59%
VPIP from SB: 9.17%
Folded SB to steal: 95.0%
Folded BB to steal: 91.3%
Attempted to steal: 8.57%
Won $ WSF: 24.74%
Flop Aggression: 1.50
Turn Aggression: 2.25
River Aggression: 2.55
Average Aggression: 1.88
Went to SD: 17.53%
Won $ at SD: 64.71%

These nits quietly infect our tables all the time. How should we play against them? Lay out your entire plan: where you want to sit and why, how you plan to play preflop and why, how you plan to play postflop and why.

And, as <font color="green">Matrix</font> so eloquently put it:
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What weaknesses does &lt;this&gt; type of player have, and how can we exploit them?


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Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

Aside from the general nittiness, one thing that sticks out is their W2SD is ridiculously low, and their W$SD is ridiculously high. I imagine this means we can push them off a better hand often enough to make well-placed bluffs +EV?

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

i say you want him on your left so you can steal from him every orbit. thats guaranteed money

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

his pfr'ing range is somehtign like AJs+,AKo+, 99+ (thats what pokerstove says anyway [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

i'd love him on my left, he can be exploited by steali ghis blinds mercilessly! hes rarely if ever gonna play back at you without a v.strong hand.

because hes so tight hand reading becomes much easier since his range is so narrow. if hes betting/raising you can usually give him credit for a strong hand. he doesnt go to SD very often but when he does he wins often, so obv hes not calling your flop/turn/river bets lightly.

his Won $ WSF seems surprisingly low... im guessing he prolly just checks when he misses and bets when he hits, so a lot of pots can be taken off him when he shows weakness on the flop... maybe

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

Call in position, and bet when checked too on the flop.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

IMO his main weakness is that he obviously leaves tons of money at the table by

1) folding too many profitable hands preflop
2) getting no action on the (big) hands he plays

by that we profit not only directly but also indirectly. What I mean with 'directly' is, that we can steal his blinds all day long. 'Indirectly' means, he's just not taking the money off of the fish at a fast enough rate, so we can do that instead.
If we get involved with him, we better hold a REALLY big hand.

This battle takes place preflop.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

I would love to have this player on my immediate left and steal his blind once or twice every orbit. Not only that, but he plays so few hands that he's never going to use his position as a weapon against you. Whenever he does enter a pot, I'll try to have hands with solid implied odds. Although his W$SD is high, players like these play so few hands that they tend to have trouble letting go of overpairs or TPTK hands even when it's obvious they're beat. So pocket pairs and suited connectors are money against them.

Postflop is all about making a hand &gt; one pair (as it's usually all nits have and it's very obvious when they don't, i.e. AK3 board and he's betting hard) and then valuebetting the crap out of him. His flop AF indicated that he doesn't like to cbet without the goods, so I would be a little less inclined to check/raise the flop and more inclined to lead out.

The biggest postflop weakness that this player has is actually rooted in his preflop play: His range is so narrow that hand reading and playing accordingly is incredibly easy. You can sacrifice a preflop equity edge all the time because your implied odds are sick. Don't go to war with one pair against this guy, it's suicide. Do play hands with good implied odds, when you hit it's money in the bank, unless he has whiffed overcards you're winning a stack.

Quite possibly the nicest thing about nits is that playing against them is such variance free profit. Blind steal to keep afloat and then hit him for a stack when you hit your set, 2 pair, whatever. Profit.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

Interesting to figure out what his 3bet range is. Also, he probably limps small pps and AQ. and only raises TT+ AJs+, AK+. Usualy I steal the [censored] out of him.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

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Call in position, and bet when checked too on the flop.

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Winner! This guys obviously gonna let you steal his blinds constantly too, but post flop with an AF that low when compared with his nitty play preflop, he's only betting real strength, which will make him very easy to play against.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

VS this nit I do not care whether he is on my right or left..He will be involved is so few pots he will not be a factor...

If he is on my left I will be stealing his blinds at NEARLY every opportunity...On my right I will not be 3 betting light ever BUT when he limps I will ISO raise him relentlessly...On left or right I will be betting whenever he checks and shutting down when he bets or raises..This villain weakness is his hand range is so narrow

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

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He will be involved is so few pots he will not be a factor...

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That's exactly why I think we make the most money out of him preflop (although all comments on postflop play against him are so true). Let's enjoy some numbers:

* his VPIP is (8.5). Let's round that up to 10% of hands he sees a flop with, accounting for the few times he sees a flop by checking in the BB. This assumtion seems even high, cause it should get raised a lot preflop with him in the BB.

* our range against him maybe something like 15% at most, mainly hands that can flop big and for which our implied odds are huge.

So with this assumptions we get involved with him 10%x15%=1.5%, that's 3 hands out of 200 on average!

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

While that's true kflip, if I were playing against him I'd open up my preflop ranges substantially when he enters a pot. A player like this just seems so exploitable postflop that I would be looking to tangle well over 3 out of 200 times. Also don't forget that we can take 1 or .5BB off of him preflop, whereas we can stack him fairly often postflop.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

Everyone else pretty much nailed it.

I want him on my left to steal blinds. I'm folding marginal/good hands to his big bets and cbetting him a lot if he calls me pf.

His PF 3bets/turn raises/check raises mean playtime is over w/o the nuts or near nuts.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

Not intending to hijack the thread or anything, but how does this change if he's playing a 16/15/5 style instead?

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

Two things come to mind when I think about playing agaisnt nits:
1. I want them on my left
2. I want to raise atleast 40% of my hands while they are in the blinds (to steal)

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

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Not intending to hijack the thread or anything, but how does this change if he's playing a 16/15/5 style instead?

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Things change in a massive way. That's twice the VPIP and 3 times the PFR, as well as way more aggro. Your 16/15/5 is just a little on the tighter side of TAG, so play him like you would a normal TAG. Those def aren't nit stats.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

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whereas we can stack him fairly often postflop.

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these aren't the stats of someone who stacks off "often" postflop.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

I was only reading the other one Mr Matrix started last night, and considered starting a new on with a 'wannabe LAG' in my database then found out it was a 2p2er [no names] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I put him on my left and openly steal his blinds with whatever, he'll often start calling but I'l still cbet but be'll out of his comfort zone even though I often have junk OOP in teh SB if I'm there. I also like him on my left because he'll be taking a seat that isn't a loosey that will float me all the time so I can play more hands IP vs the whole of the table and he will often fold when I'm CO/HJ and give me the postflop BTN and as we all know position is the shizzle.

On flop I play more aggro HU often rasing or calling and stealing on the turn- but he may be a float 1 street with PP type but will likely check it down so no expensive double barrels - but this depends on the flop texture vs his range.

He unlikely has many draws[less SCs/Axs hands] so checking the turn is often good with draws/1pair hands.

His turn aggr, river &gt; flop so if he calls the flop bets/raise I'm shutting down 1pair hands which are weak vs his range.

ATs+, 88+ and some overvalued semi-broadway KJ,KQ,QJ as PFR range - he liekly limps Axs,small PPs.

Maybe we could post some hands vs this villan as examples if anyone's got PT available.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

agreed, i want him one seat on my left so i can have his SB and his button always.

don't have any meaningful hands from such players as these, just checked my DB and found 2 players, 2 hands, neither elucidating.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Pokey

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

why worry about beating him, he's only putting $ in 8% of the pots. and when he opens those 5 out of 100 pots, just fold unless you have a monster.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

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why worry about beating him, he's only putting $ in 8% of the pots. and when he opens those 5 out of 100 pots, just fold unless you have a monster.

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Yeah, that's exactly why we have these posts: to cure these misperceptions. We can do better than this.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

We gotta raise the pot everytime he limps and we're in position on him. Notice he's not 8/8, he's 8/4.5 so he's limping in about half the time.

He folds over 90% of his hands in the blinds!!! That's such an easy raise from the BTN/CO depending on who's between the two of you. I'd probably be raising at least half the time it's folded to me in the BTN/CO.

Postflop play: he's got a big aggression factor postflop for being such a huge huge nit. Just let him bet into you when you have position and you have a big hand (top two, set, flush, etc). We're probably going to try to raise the turn on him since he's more aggressive there (i.e. if he gets to the turn he's much more likely to bet/raise).

I'd be really willing to lay down big PPs on low boards vs. this guy.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

Ya, I want him on my left to steal his blinds, and when he checks to me I will bet. If he shows any aggression ie. raises me and I dont have a monster I fold.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

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why worry about beating him, he's only putting $ in 8% of the pots. and when he opens those 5 out of 100 pots, just fold unless you have a monster.

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Yeah, that's exactly why we have these posts: to cure these misperceptions. We can do better than this.

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i don't know pokey, it just seems like there will be much easier spots at the table to make money, he doesn't figure to be playing anything worse than TT+, AQ, and AK. why would you get involved with this guy with out a monster.

with that said, i'd probably call his raises with small pairs and suited connectors to try and bust him, but i don't know if that's +EV if i never have a chance to take the pot away if i don't hit?

best plan is probably to steal his blinds and get out of the way if he raises (unless you have a big hand)

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

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why worry about beating him, he's only putting $ in 8% of the pots. and when he opens those 5 out of 100 pots, just fold unless you have a monster.

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Yeah, that's exactly why we have these posts: to cure these misperceptions. We can do better than this.

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i don't know pokey, it just seems like there will be much easier spots at the table to make money, he doesn't figure to be playing anything worse than TT+, AQ, and AK. why would you get involved with this guy with out a monster.

with that said, i'd probably call his raises with small pairs and suited connectors to try and bust him, but i don't know if that's +EV if i never have a chance to take the pot away if i don't hit?

best plan is probably to steal his blinds and get out of the way if he raises (unless you have a big hand)

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we can take away the pot often enough when we dont hit. this whole thread has been about how low his flop af numbers are, allowing us to steal pots after the flop when he checks to us.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

his pf agression is high enough that it seems clear that he overplays his hands when he does have something. i'd rather have someone like that in front of me than behind, because i can play more speculative hands against them and get paid when i hit. these are the guys that complain about how bad players run them down, right after getting 90% of their stack in bad post-flop.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

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Not intending to hijack the thread or anything, but how does this change if he's playing a 16/15/5 style instead?

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Someone else nailed this - 16/15 is very close to tag stats.

I for one, have had trouble at the tables, and temporarily switched to super tight play.

Let's just say that my normal stats are around 23/18 usually typical 2p2 opening standards.

When I stopped raising Axs and SC's from MP, and really tightened up in the SB, it dropped me down to around 16/12, which is pretty close to that number. It's nitty, but not -that- nitty.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

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we can take away the pot often enough when we dont hit. this whole thread has been about how low his flop af numbers are, allowing us to steal pots after the flop when he checks to us.

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my mistake, i thought he had a high Went to SD %

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

I raise him with all kinds of hands and try to be overagrro, because he will fold a lot of hands and he will probably only play back if he has something. Just steal, steal, steal and bluff if he might have missed. Then if he plays back we're not handing out anything more.

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

Pokey's back?

Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-
 

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Pokey's back?

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The prophet returns