variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

Im up against a standard multitabling reg from 400 NL. I played with him a fair bit this afternoon, and i think he respects my play in a sense that i seem competent postflop and tight oop preflop.


CO ($400.00)
Button ($448.60)
Hero ($400.00)
BB ($466.80)
UTG ($408.00)

Hero has T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and is the SB

everyone folds,<font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $14.00</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $45.00</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, Button calls $33.00.

Flop: ($98.00) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $70.00</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $370.00</font>

He hasn't made this move before, so there is no meta-consideration involved.

it sucks but i call right?

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

this post just made my head explode

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

lol...fixed [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

I fold, he could have big clubs, QQ+, or a set. Didnt run ne numbers but I think 1010 isnt doing well vs this range.

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

why would you assume you call here? seems like a pretty easy fold with no history...

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
why would you assume you call here? seems like a pretty easy fold with no history...

[/ QUOTE ]

well its not that there is no history, it just isn't spectacular or anything [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] After this hand if i call there is of course, and that would have to be taken into account for a loonnngg time to come.

Now like i said i view him as a pretty ABC competent multitabler. Nothing special, but he got things down ok. As most multitablers though they lack creativity severely and they follow 'precooked' blueprints. They are pretty easy to read actually. Im pretty sure he views me as competent, so im almost positive the plan for various hands would roll out as followed:

-Sets would be called or minraised to tie me to the pot with an overpair. Not shoving, as it would make it more likely i would be forced into the correct decision.

-Toppair would have called and not raised for sure for obvious reasons

-Queens would be called with, as shoving "only gets called by better hands and would lead worse hands to fold"

-Kings would be dealt with preflop in order to get the money in before the dreaded ace flops

-Aces is the cliffhanger in hindsight, that makes me wonder about the decision so i come back later on that one

The push in my opinion is a true '2p2move'. It is the 'expertplay' if two criteria are met

-Foldequity foremost. It can lead to have your opponent folding better hands that are certainly in my range and
-If called you have tons of outs (overs, flushdraw, gutshots etc.)

Now i would love this move if those damn multitablers would use it only once every zillion times with a set or whatnot. But they do not, they are robots and they do not 'mix it up' like they say they do in the forums. So for an oldschool 1-2 tabler like me its transparent as glass.

So when he shoves combined with his call pf, i put him exactly on AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc. The pot lays me 1.8-1. Against this exact range im 1.6-1. So this led me to a call.

However, there are the dreaded aces. I honestly dont think he wouldve played them this way, but that is readbased, however the remotepossibility that he did would make it a close fold looking back.

All thoughts appreciated very much,

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

why cant he have JQc and KJc then?

I think his range crushes you to be honest.

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
why cant he have JQc and KJc then?

I think his range crushes you to be honest.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

cuz im pretty sure he folds those preflop, and i dont blame him as he is stepping into a pretty big pot that could cost him a fair amount extra if he finds himself to be outkicked. Even if he can find a fold with toppair. My range isn't spectacular oop from the SB. Its tight, its premium, and to be honest very standard at this point.

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

However, as an honest selfcritique i must say i may be trying to look up the line very thinly here as well as in other hands (see my AKpost).
I have too see how it works out over time, and how confident i feel about the ranges i put my opponent on. I feel confident i nailed this range down however, i only want to say that when things are this close to the mark folding never is a bad option, perheps even the preferred one.

I like to post these unorthodox play, may they be played well or bad, as i think they are interesting for discussion. I can obviously see why someone would view the hand and just think "wtf is he talking about a call, its second pair for chrissake". I just like to examine how big the box really is. And i hope a lot of posters do too.

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

Im going with the other posts. Fold. While I STRONGLY doubt he has a set, He at least has a J. Save yourself the cash.

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

If you have to post it, you shouldn't call.

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

How can you justify calling AI with second pair + backdoor draws against a player you admit is competent?

I really think if you weren't behind preflop, you're definitely behind now. I think anything but a fold here is -ev.

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why would you assume you call here? seems like a pretty easy fold with no history...

[/ QUOTE ]

well its not that there is no history, it just isn't spectacular or anything [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] After this hand if i call there is of course, and that would have to be taken into account for a loonnngg time to come.

Now like i said i view him as a pretty ABC competent multitabler. Nothing special, but he got things down ok. As most multitablers though they lack creativity severely and they follow 'precooked' blueprints. They are pretty easy to read actually. Im pretty sure he views me as competent, so im almost positive the plan for various hands would roll out as followed:

-Sets would be called or minraised to tie me to the pot with an overpair. Not shoving, as it would make it more likely i would be forced into the correct decision.

-Toppair would have called and not raised for sure for obvious reasons

-Queens would be called with, as shoving "only gets called by better hands and would lead worse hands to fold"

-Kings would be dealt with preflop in order to get the money in before the dreaded ace flops

-Aces is the cliffhanger in hindsight, that makes me wonder about the decision so i come back later on that one

The push in my opinion is a true '2p2move'. It is the 'expertplay' if two criteria are met

-Foldequity foremost. It can lead to have your opponent folding better hands that are certainly in my range and
-If called you have tons of outs (overs, flushdraw, gutshots etc.)

Now i would love this move if those damn multitablers would use it only once every zillion times with a set or whatnot. But they do not, they are robots and they do not 'mix it up' like they say they do in the forums. So for an oldschool 1-2 tabler like me its transparent as glass.

So when he shoves combined with his call pf, i put him exactly on AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc. The pot lays me 1.8-1. Against this exact range im 1.6-1. So this led me to a call.

However, there are the dreaded aces. I honestly dont think he wouldve played them this way, but that is readbased, however the remotepossibility that he did would make it a close fold looking back.

All thoughts appreciated very much,

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a lot of this thinking is very off base. A good TAG will most certainly shove a set here a good amount of the time. I agree with you that he most likely is not doing this with a jack. Removing KK from his range here is just stupid, I think AA, KK, and QQ for that matter are certainly a large part of his range here. I could certainly see QQ just calling in this spot, but if you are thinking about calling here with TT it's obviously false to say that he only gets called by better if he shoves in this spot. If he has overs and a flush draw, which is also a large part of his range, you are basically flipping with him, and thus I think folding&gt;&gt;calling in this spot. I'm guessing you called and he had a flush draw and you're trying to justify a call here, because I cant see any other reason you would post this hand.

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

If he has two overs+FD, he's a fav. If he has overpair or set, you're drawing to two outs. If he has top set, you're drawing to backdoor striaghts/flushes. I don't think he's shoving AK here. I think you're definitely screwed, and you're either flipping or CRUSHED. I like a fold. Besides, I c people do this crap enough with like AJ as well, and QQ+ is very possible. IMO, best hand for you u'll c, is like AQcc, which is actually slight fav over u. So the question is, do u wunna get it all in flipping with a slide disadvantage, or stick it in drawing rele thin? I like folding. Any hand that you beat that is not drawing (66,77, or 88) is going to flatcall this flop almost all the time and reeval, especially with position. Calling is spew i think.

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

calling this is terrible

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]

-Sets would be called or minraised to tie me to the pot with an overpair. Not shoving, as it would make it more likely i would be forced into the correct decision.

-Toppair would have called and not raised for sure for obvious reasons

-Queens would be called with, as shoving "only gets called by better hands and would lead worse hands to fold"



[/ QUOTE ]

ahhh...put on the villains hat for a bit. With the two clubs out there it is a HUGE mistake to "slow-play" sets/overpairs/toppair.

If I had QQ...I shove on you here as well, as it will deny YOU the implied odds of hitting your flush.

Really think about the villians shoes here. You reraised pre-flop out of position and then made a decent bet into me on the flop. Can I really take you "off" your hand with my push of 66,77,88?? (your best case scenario). Don't think so.

Villians push is two-over's w/clubs or JJ/QQ.

Either way you are cooked...muckem.

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

Upon further reflection.....

If I am a TAG multtabler why do I shove here with a draw? If I assume you have a hand (you did reraise me preflop and fire into me on the flop) and I have the AX or KX flushdraw, I HAVE to be behind - so why not just call the $70 and "see" the turn before "cheap".

For the $70 - I have position, you might shutdown and if you don't, then I can re-eval.

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

Uhh, pot equity + fold equity + domination possibilities + meta game = money?

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

fold out AQ / AK / etc and push hard on smaller pairs (like TT that HAVE to fold and some weak J-x that have to fold)

also by shoving hands like this, he has a tough decision with a hand like JQ that could be ahead but could be crushed.

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

this has good to be an auto muck... u cant beat anything and r racing against overs wit a flush draw... easy fold...

Re: variance here i come baby, TT -400NL 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
Now like i said i view him as a pretty ABC competent multitabler.

-Sets would be called or minraised to tie me to the pot with an overpair. Not shoving, as it would make it more likely i would be forced into the correct decision.


[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think that many competent multitablers minraise with a set.

I push here with a wide range including sets.

Final thoughts...
 

well its been a massacre...and for what its worth i agree its a fold.

I always bitch against friends they make decision based on what i call if-if scenarios (if he has bla bla and if he would be capable to bla bla then this would be the right move) but i have fallen victim to it myself [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

If things are this marginal in an if-if-setting, it must be a 100% fold if you would add any kind of variable to the mix. And of course, in this case there are a LOT of variables in play. So i stand correctly,

I must add though that where i may have underestimated the variables in play some posters overestimate them in my honest opinion.
This shove for instance, is in my experience (and i truly believe this) a great tool, but by many online players misused as they do not throw monsters in the mix, but use it when they want their opponent to fold only.

In a way most people get too greedy when they finally flop a huge hand and are scared a shove will lose them a lot of money if their opponent is forced to fold they wouldve called down with otherwise. (yes i can see how my hand can be thrown back into my face to counter this pov, so save it lol [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ) This is my assesment however, so to each its own.

fwiw, unlike some poster stated that i was posting this to justify my play and the opponent held only a flushdraw, the shame carries on: He had AcJc, i was crushed from the getgo.

tx for all comments and input, it has helped me, no doubt [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Final thoughts...
 

[ QUOTE ]
This shove for instance, is in my experience (and i truly believe this) a great tool, but by many online players misused as they do not throw monsters in the mix, but use it when they want their opponent to fold only.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree. Given this fact, outside of the big flush draws (that were a coin toss or had you as a dog) what other "don't call me hands" could he be playing that you have covered? It seems like alot of non-club AJ,QQ,KJ combos can turn up here (again, the idea being a big bet is a scare-bet against all the club-club hands).

So, even if this is a scare-bet you are still probably dominated.

Re: Final thoughts...
 

call qq/insta-fold tt

Re: Final thoughts...
 

my conclusion exactly...

In retrospect, i guess my head is spinning a little from all the study im doing lately. Im pokerstoving the crap out of virtually all semi+ interesting hands i play, and i can't even push off the button when in bed trying to sleep. I dream handranges lol [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I feel im improving my play a lot and i think it will do even a lot more when all the dust has settled. But in the equity-chaos im surrounding myself with now it leads to some freakshows of plays now and then. o well.... to be continued for a while i guess [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]