NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

Villain is 18/12
6.7 overall agression (5 turn aggr)
27wtsd

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$400) <font color="#0000FF">(5 handed)</font> link

BB ($519.10)
Hero ($494.90)
Button ($349.00)
SB ($482.30)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $14.00</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $52.00</font>, Hero calls $42.00.

Flop: ($114.00) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $88.00</font>, Hero calls $88.00.

Turn: ($290.00) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $125.00</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $415.00.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

I'm starting to wonder if I'm supposed to fold these on the flop, but I probably play it the same way you did, unless this guy's 3-bet OOP range is really tight.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

I call the turn too, but I'm a station.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

Good question, I have noticed this leak in my own play, calling down overpair all the way with 100bb if the pot is three bet preflop. I think a fold on the turn is better against a TAG or weak tight player who has a won at showdown of +55%. In todays more aggressive play it has become tougher to get away from TPTK and overpairs, as you are often in for about 14 blinds pre flop.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

u can fold preflop.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

How can you fold preflop? Looks like a good spot to play for set value. This tightwad will never drop a big pair, which he has here every time... definitely fold the flop, though.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

i agree with twp, the fact that his hand range is heavily skewed towards big pairs actually works in our favour.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

he will never drop a big pair? he will not drop QQ on a KJx board or KK on a AJx? how about a Jxxx fourflush or fourstraight? how about AA on AJx? how about AK on Jxx?

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

Pretty standard calldown, assuming this guys stats are over a lot of hands. I think a fold PF might be good though.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

I (almost) never fold here PF because even if his range is QQ KK AA+ AK, most tags (regs) I've noticed play very weak-tight on the turn with AK unimproved, and also almost never go for a CR on turn with AA KK QQ.

Because of this I call PF with the plan of calling any less than psb if no A or K falls, and betting the turn if checked too.

This by itself doesn't make a pf call +ev, but I think when you add in the times that you flop a set and stack an overpair + metagame (as in getting more action when you cold call PF in this spot with AA from AK KK QQ JJ and worse from looser players) it makes call&gt;fold.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

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Pretty standard calldown, assuming this guys stats are over a lot of hands. I think a fold PF might be good though.

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I think calling your whole stack off is pretty awful here...

Id usually play it the way you did, though a flop fold is quite possible.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

NH

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

The day I fold this pre is the day I quit poker...not a chance in hell.

Is he 18/12 at five handed? I might find a fold on a flop like that cause you're hunting AK/AQ otherwise, but no way I call the turn. Still, enough funny stuff goes on and five handed is getting into that area where I notice even the tighter TAGs opening up and playing a bit more so I don't think the way you played it is too bad..

- C -

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

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How can you fold preflop? Looks like a good spot to play for set value. This tightwad will never drop a big pair, which he has here every time... definitely fold the flop, though.

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ummmm..if we are folding this flop, calling preflop is ----EV

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

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How can you fold preflop? Looks like a good spot to play for set value. This tightwad will never drop a big pair, which he has here every time... definitely fold the flop, though.

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ummmm..if we are folding this flop, calling preflop is ----EV

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umm....no it isn't. learn math.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

I think this laydown is extremely bad. Folding set should be very rare, especially in this situation. I have folded set a few times and I can begin giving you a situation where you can fold set. I was sitting with 5s5h in CU. UTG raises 5xBB, I call and button calls aswell. The flop is Kh 6d 5c. On flop UTG checks, and I lead out with a 75% potbet. Button calls, and UTG doubles me. I call, and button aswell. Turn is 4c. UTG bets strong and I call, but button goes all-in. UTG calls! I then fold my set! UTG has KK and button has 78. This is a situation where set can be folded fairly easy, but these situations don't occur so often! In your case it is EV- to put FI on either 44 or 33. These hands are the only hands that kill your ducks and in threeway action it is very rare. Believing Fi has flopped str8 is a great long shot and if someone were to have done this, you still have about 35% chance of winning the hand! The only right thing to do is to put in your chips on flop!

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

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he will never drop a big pair? he will not drop QQ on a KJx board or KK on a AJx? how about a Jxxx fourflush or fourstraight? how about AA on AJx? how about AK on Jxx?

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Yes of course. But this is a moot point -- this is allways a problem when hoping to flop a set and stack someone.

It's the fact that villain will be far less likely to flop unimproved overcards compared to a looser re-raiser that makes us more likely to get his stack.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

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How can you fold preflop? Looks like a good spot to play for set value. This tightwad will never drop a big pair, which he has here every time... definitely fold the flop, though.

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ummmm..if we are folding this flop, calling preflop is ----EV

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umm....no it isn't. learn math.

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Feel free to tell me where my maths is wrong. Here

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

Add to that him having AK and missing or him having KK and an ace flopping or him having QQ and A or K flopping is look VERY -EV to me

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

I have a really hard time to figure out on what hand this guy is putting hero on.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

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How can you fold preflop? Looks like a good spot to play for set value. This tightwad will never drop a big pair, which he has here every time... definitely fold the flop, though.

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ummmm..if we are folding this flop, calling preflop is ----EV

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umm....no it isn't. learn math.

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u are without a doubt better at ev calcs than me so if u really burn for this question, i would be pretty interested in what u came up with, taking into account scenarios such as the ones i mentioned in my above post. also dont discount scenarios such as this being one of the very few times this 18/12s decides to mix up his game by reraising 67s without getting his whole stack in postflop, or is reraising AK and wont go broke if he misses.

set mining is so very very 2003.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

well, obviously an EV calc can't just be for set mining... but occasionally people do fold the best hand... the EV calc isn't easy. It can probably be loosely estimated by assuming he always has an overpair and never folds it, though.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

I can't see getting past the turn here.

Villain is aggressive, but unlikely to fire two barrels here with a AK.

And I think with his stats, he's probably calling as opposed to raising hands like 99 or 88's which preflop.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

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well, obviously an EV calc can't just be for set mining... but occasionally people do fold the best hand... the EV calc isn't easy. It can probably be loosely estimated by assuming he always has an overpair and never folds it, though.

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I don't get you.

Do you think he doesn't cbet AK on this flop?

What odds do you think we need to call preflop for set odds?

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

Yes, I think he cb's AK which is why I would call the flop. I was making a very rough approximation with my 'always has an overpair' comment because I think the +EV and -EV from his NOT always having an overpair will roughly cancel out. I like 10:1 against players that I have pretty good control over.

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

Turn bet looks pretty weak... I would call this, and re-evaluate on the river (unless you have some specific read on the player where this is a clear fold...)

Re: NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock
 

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How can you fold preflop? Looks like a good spot to play for set value. This tightwad will never drop a big pair, which he has here every time... definitely fold the flop, though.

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Yes, I think he cb's AK which is why I would call the flop.

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why did you change your mind?