10k SnG prop bet?
 

So while watching my roommate playing a bunch of $55SnG's on FT today while he was experimenting with a new strategy, he unleashes this gem. "I'm pretty sure I could run at 20% roi at the 50's."

Obviously, we have some discussion, as I think this is absurd. He then states that he would need a rather large incentive in order to undergo such a task of playing x number (700-1k $50 SnG's) as he generally plays higher SnG's and up to 25/50NL. I would jump on this, unfortunately I do not have the approx 10k he would need to wager on this to make it worth his while.

background on said roommate: Incredible all around player, has won big in all forms of poker, has great instincts but isn't a math genius or incredibly fundamental in his game. Has a few leaks as a result of this. Plays very unorthodoxed in general which throws his opponnents off. Probably so unorthodoxed that his opponnents don't give him much respect, eventhough he's probably one of the biggest online winners the past year no one has heard about. Has no discipline or tilt problems whatsoever.

He's also a very good prop better (i.e. he'll try to barter to make it a lower roi, over a shorter sample, probably sharkscope every tournament he enters to find the juiciest ones, but I'm just trying to get a foundation here), always getting the best of it (in his mind) but is also very overconfident and cocky, which leads him to make assertions like this and hellmuthian statements when he played multitables long ago and we had a weeklong argument based on this statement he made "I'd need at least 3.5:1 to call knowing it was a coinflip early in a tournament."

If such a bet were to take place, there'd obviously be a lot of hassling on the details. He'd likely play as few tables as possible, want to be an unknown player, perhaps even somehow figure out how to play on a few different names so that no one picks up on his tendencies.

As for me, I'm just looking to capitilize on his cockiness and general ridiculousness. I think this is a pretty great bet for anyone to make, although there are a few people whose sharkscopes indicate this is possible, i_neva_win for example, which make him think it is also possible for him. My roommate has an 8% overall roi, over 3k+ SnG's all at higher limits than 50's. His identity would become known obviously to anyone making the wager.

Anyone interested in making this wager? For facilitating and monitoring the progress, and making what I think is the deal of a lifetime available to people, I'm going to take a 10% cut, meaning you are essentially laying 9 to 10 of whatever amount. It could be one person, it could be multiple people in for small chunks, just gauging general interest levels. Would be nice to make this possible before my roommate stop running like god.

I would only be taking a cut out of the people betting against my roommate, I would have no incentive for him to win, unless of course this was some giant hustle since I am not really well known on 2+2, but I can have a few well known and trusted 2+2'ers and trusted big name pros vouch for be my roommate and I before any dollars change hands. Obviously, I would need to and would get these vouches for our integrity if there is enough interest and this actually happens.

Personally, I'm just wishing I had 10k to risk, seems to good to be true to me.

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

Lol i don't have 10k im willing to risk on this bet, but if the sample size is big enough your "mate" doesn't stand a chance of maintaining 20% roi at this level.

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

i lold... HARD

and btw

background on said roommate: [censored] moron

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

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Lol i don't have 10k im willing to risk on this bet, but if the sample size is big enough your "mate" doesn't stand a chance of maintaining 20% roi at this level.

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I agree, but at the same time, I was surprised to see a few people able to do it, i_neva_win and lynx on FT were able to do it, but I'm sure they were just running great. Also realize, he ran at 8% roi, at higher limits, while averaging 10 tables. So in his mind, it is doable.

And while it's possible, he would need to run really well in order for him to win. But he has the talent. His graph is as good as anyone's out there.

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

I will put up 10k against your friend for this bet as long as we escrow the money with someone I know and he plays the tournaments within 1 month, and there is some way to track them that I would trust.

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

sounds like a pretty good bet

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

Non turbo's it's possible but not for someone that isn't highly experienced with ICM.

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

I am a 55s grinder. I also play the 109s and 215s on occasion. I can say without a doubt that although the skill level of the average opponent is better at 109 and 215, there is no way in hell that 55s players are bad enough to be pounded for a sustainable 20% ROI. There are ALOT of 4-6 table grinders that play very well. As many as 4-5 per table at most times.

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

I would think highly versed ICM players would fare worse in such a bet, since most pure math players push too small of an edge on average to have a 20% roi. You would really need to play unorthodoxed to have a better chance of winning the bet.

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

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You would really need to run super hot to have a better chance of winning the bet.

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FYP.

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

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I would think highly versed ICM players would fare worse in such a bet, since most pure math players push too small of an edge on average to have a 20% roi. You would really need to play unorthodoxed to have a better chance of winning the bet.

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The problem is that there are a lot of good players in the 55s that he will have to play against. THEY will be using close to perfect ICM against him so I don't see how he could exploit them to any great extent. Even if he loosens his calling standards when they hit pushbot mode, the good grinders will just adjust their ranges in response.

Also, a lot of the 55s grinders grind the 109s and 215s as well, so if he can only achieve an 8% ROI at those limits I really don't see where he can make up the other 12% at the 55s.

The only way he can win this bet is by running hot for 1000 sngs (or collusion).

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

IMO 1000 SnG's is NOT a statistically-relevant sample. I think you need min=5,000.....During 2006 I had 2 months where I played > 800/mo. $55's with a neg.ROI and 4 months with > 800/mo. $55's with a positive ROI...in 2006 I played more than 6000 $55's with a small(+)ROI and I wouldn't bet ten cents that I could duplicate it over the next 1,000 [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

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IMO 1000 SnG's is NOT a statistically-relevant sample. I think you need min=5,000.....During 2006 I had 2 months where I played > 800/mo. $55's with a neg.ROI and 4 months with > 800/mo. $55's with a positive ROI...in 2006 I played more than 6000 $55's with a small(+)ROI and I wouldn't bet ten cents that I could duplicate it over the next 1,000 [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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who cares its a prop bet! there can be lots of luck involved yay gambool!

I gave OP my AIM so hopefully i hear something from the dude who wants to take the bet.

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

This seems to come up every two months or so. In all cases, one of two things happens.

1) OP/prop bettor realizes he's about to make a hugely-unprofitable bet and attempts to weasel out of it by changing the terms. OP/prop bettor calls those who accept the original terms and balk at the new ones "pussies" or something similar. Response in kind... and so on.

2) OP/prop bettor are scammers and find a way to welsh on the bet.

I would definitely take this bet if it didn't smack of me not getting paid when I win.

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

Well I imagine the terms will end up changing somewhat, as it all stemmed from simply one statement made.

Apathy, sign on to AIM now and we'll talk about it.

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

In before lock/bannings?? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
 

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http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...ue#Post10692352

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