is this close?
 

44 in SB and i complete after a fishy limper, BB checks. bb is tag.

flop A45r
I bet, bb raises, I 3bet

turn Tr
I bet, bb raises, I ???

Re: is this close?
 

meh i don't think so. Even if he has 23 you have 11 outs. There are a lot of 2 pair combos.

Re: is this close?
 

I dont think that there's any way that bb doesnt raise TT+ in that situation, and its fairly unlikely that he'll check 55 there.

More likely is a twopair turn hand that doesnt include the ace. I'd keep the gas down.

Re: is this close?
 

I'd 3-bet without thinking.

Re: is this close?
 

all in

Re: is this close?
 

hmmmm ok

two followups:

what should a reasonable villain's range be when he raises the turn? do you guys think a raise with bottom two is good here? do you ever raise with one pair here?

what do we do on river if he caps? esp a board pairing river.

Re: is this close?
 

if he did manage to check the bb with Ax or A5 he could be on that line - mainly because your hand can't rep the ace and your line looks like it wants a fold - especially on the flop.

If you threeball the turn, he caps, the river pairs, you bet, he raises then i'd just call there and concde that he either played weird preflop, caught a miracle postflop, or spewed.

Re: is this close?
 

guru I pretty much never raise A4/A5/55 in the bb in this spot. i actually think it's pretty bad..

Re: is this close?
 

agree raising those hands is bad.

i think it is close. if he caps, then yeah fold river ui.

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
guru I pretty much never raise A4/A5/55 in the bb in this spot. i actually think it's pretty bad..

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
guru I pretty much never raise A4/A5/55 in the bb in this spot. i actually think it's pretty bad..

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

holla

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd 3-bet without thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
all in

[/ QUOTE ]

auw yuw cen eet bahbee

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
all in

[/ QUOTE ]

auw yuw cen eet bahbee

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't call. Ees too much. Scotty WIN!

(we're all enormous dorks, you realize this, right?)

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
agree raising those hands is bad.

i think it is close. if he caps, then yeah fold river ui.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you not c/c the river here? We've already invested a ton of bets. I see people pull this with Ax suited all the time.

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
agree raising those hands is bad.

i think it is close. if he caps, then yeah fold river ui.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you not c/c the river here? We've already invested a ton of bets. I see people pull this with Ax suited all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
rofl, liar.

i'm starting a new thing on 2p2.

YOU CAN'T JUST LIE.

it comes from my personal life. i have a really fat friend who won't stop lying about hooking up with girls. well the problem is that no girl will come near the guy. so we made this statement into a way of life. if anyone ever just blatantly lies, we tell him. YOU CANT JUST [censored] LIE.

SO STOP [censored] LYING.

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
hmmmm ok

two followups:

what should a reasonable villain's range be when he raises the turn? do you guys think a raise with bottom two is good here? do you ever raise with one pair here?

what do we do on river if he caps? esp a board pairing river.

[/ QUOTE ]

We can argue all day about the exact # of hands you beat but what are you losing to? If I'm BB I beat you with 55 & that's it. edit - n/m 23 flopped the joint. Still a 3ball I think.

Re: is this close?
 

i 3bet here all day, and I'm a super puss

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i 3bet here all day, and I'm a super puss

[/ QUOTE ]

If the BB is a tag than 3betting the turn may be giving too much action IMO.

To give a simple illustration of what I am talking about I will tell you what my hand range will be if I raise the flop in that spot and call JBA's 3bet and still pop the turn.

A4,A5,32,55. JBA is a 19-12 underdog against this range. Which means he should just call down once raised on the turn by most tags who play like me.

Thank about it, this tag cant be overplaying a big ace cuz he wouldve raised preflop. He is very unlikely to have AT cuz he wouldve raised preflop. Also if the tag had just Ax, his most likely line on the flop would be to call in this small pot and hope you keep betting a worse hand. The tag is unlikely to have a hand like 5T cuz most tags would just fold the flop unless they felt that you had a high bluffing frequency in this spot. I also dont think its that likely that a tag will be overplaying a hand like 45 here but that's still a possibility.

If you add 45 to the tags range JBA is still a 19-15 underdog once raised on the turn. Also, if you add 5T to the tags range along with 45, JBA now becomes a 24-19 favorite. However if you make the realistic assumption that the tag is always gonna cap when hes winning(32,55) and always call down when he's losing(A4,A5,45,5T) it is unclear whether JBA's turn 3bet is profitable even when he's a favorite to have the best hand. To figure out the profitability/loss of 3betting the turn against the range Ive talked about someone needs to do some simple math based on further assumptions which I'm too lazy to do right now.

So I began by saying that 3betting the turn against a tag may be giving too much action. The potential profitability/loss of this play is very dependent on the our assumptions on how well this tag plays and on his specific hand range.

Heres what I know for sure: If I were the tag villain in this hand 3betting the turn with 44 would be total spewage pure and simple cuz I will never have AT,5T,45 here. I will always have A4,A5,32,55. This range will never change cuz I am an ABC Rakeback bonus whoring tag robot who never tilts as I am not human.

Against another tag who plays differently from this model, you may have a profitable 3bet. It all comes down to what range you put the tag on and then its just a basic math problem with a few probable assumptions in play.

So JBA if you are wondering if your turn play is close, I think I have sufficiently answered your question. It is very close, and that much is not debatable. Whether you should 3bet the turn or not against the average tag is still up for debate.

Re: is this close?
 

"what should a reasonable villain's range be when he raises the turn?"

As I said before I would only raise the turn here with A4,A5,55,32. I understand that when you bet/3bet the flop your most likely hand is two pair or better becuz if you had a strong ace you wouldve raised preflop.

As an aside, I think if you had just an Ace you wouldve checked the flop to induce more action. With no history, it only makes sense to bet this flop with these following hands: two pair or better, a gutshot draw, 4x,5x, and a total bluff. When you 3bet the flop it may be true that you could be running a 3rd level rebluff since you know your opponent knows youre probably weak at this point which means he could be weak also, but youre most likely hand at this point is still 2pair or better since rebluffs are seldom a good idea cuz that requires putting someone on a thought which is not easy to do online.

"do you guys think a raise with bottom two is good here?"

Since your most likely hand is 2pair or better at this point, raisin the turn with a hand like 45 is spewage.

"do you ever raise with one pair here?"

Becuz I like money the answer is no.

"what do we do on river if he caps?"

If he caps the turn all you have is a crying calldown UI. If you improve to a boat its time to check/raise and if he 3bets the river youre back to a crying call situation if this guy plays logical.

Re: is this close?
 

ILP, you really have to start thinking in terms of a range of possible opponent profiles in addition to a range of possible hands. Even if there are a lot of opponents who could never show up with one pair there, there are plenty of others who would and those hands are so much more likely combinatorially that they need to be given a fair amount of weight. Besides that, I'd think a player who is alert enough to go for the flop/turn screwplay might lean toward slowplaying if he'd flopped something like 32 or 55, which shifts the ranges further toward some hand that found a way to improve on the turn. I think this is a trivially easy 3-bet.

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
agree raising those hands is bad.

i think it is close. if he caps, then yeah fold river ui.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you not c/c the river here? We've already invested a ton of bets. I see people pull this with Ax suited all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
rofl, liar.

i'm starting a new thing on 2p2.

YOU CAN'T JUST LIE.

it comes from my personal life. i have a really fat friend who won't stop lying about hooking up with girls. well the problem is that no girl will come near the guy. so we made this statement into a way of life. if anyone ever just blatantly lies, we tell him. YOU CANT JUST [censored] LIE.

SO STOP [censored] LYING.

[/ QUOTE ]

uh, not sure wtf is wrong with you, lol.

not sure why you'd invest all those bets and fold to 1 bb. that's just plain dumb.

Re: is this close?
 

The reason I 3-bet is not because of hand combinations of every possible hand that's beating you + two pair type hands..
It's because I see the average player slowplay the flop monsters too frequently.

This is a "gimme yo money" line in a raised pot, but this is a "the turn card improved me" line in an unraised pot.

I think there's a good chance he was raising the flop light (or didnt raise ATo preflop) and just made two pair on the turn.

Knowing how much action to give unknowns does turn into a sort of art. This is because of the vast variety of player profiles and sheer complexity of averaging it all.

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
ILP, you really have to start thinking in terms of a range of possible opponent profiles in addition to a range of possible hands. Even if there are a lot of opponents who could never show up with one pair there, there are plenty of others who would and those hands are so much more likely combinatorially that they need to be given a fair amount of weight. Besides that, I'd think a player who is alert enough to go for the flop/turn screwplay might lean toward slowplaying if he'd flopped something like 32 or 55, which shifts the ranges further toward some hand that found a way to improve on the turn. I think this is a trivially easy 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a pretty pointless post Nate. Stop telling me stuff I already know. I do think in terms of the range of possible opponent profiles. I know there are alot of opponents that can have just one pair here. Jesus christ, I know how to play poker. I was just trying to point out to JBA that whether he should 3bet the turn or not vs a typical tag is inherently close. I used my play as an example to show what I was talking about. I dont assume everyone plays like me. If you think this is a trivially easy 3-bet against a typical tag, then Im convinced youre 3betting the turn too much. The fact that a good, winning player like Jba even created this thread should clue you in on the reality that the turn play must be close. This thread would not exist if that was not so.

Nate, I highly respect your game and your posts, but I dont think any 2+2er has annoyed me more than you this past year. That said, I hope you never stop posting on 2+2 becuz many people appreciate your contributions including me, even If you do annoy the hell out of me. I also find my girlfriend annoying but I'll probably marry her.

Re: is this close?
 

i think the guy who annoys me the most is...

KODELAAM

see if u guys can figure out that code!

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]


Knowing how much action to give unknowns does turn into a sort of art.

[/ QUOTE ]

Youre right Heisen, it is an art. Heres a simple example. Scary Tiger and Thehip41 are both strong winning Tags. Against Scary Tiger this would be an extremely easy turn 3bet. Against Thehip41, I would just call down.

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Knowing how much action to give unknowns does turn into a sort of art.

[/ QUOTE ]

Youre right Heisen, it is an art. Heres a simple example. Scary Tiger and Thehip41 are both strong winning Tags. Against Scary Tiger this would be an extremely easy turn 3bet. Against Thehip41, I would just call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's because scary tiger sucks at poker I do not. well, i suck to, but not at hand reading, or preflop. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ILP, you really have to start thinking in terms of a range of possible opponent profiles in addition to a range of possible hands. Even if there are a lot of opponents who could never show up with one pair there, there are plenty of others who would and those hands are so much more likely combinatorially that they need to be given a fair amount of weight. Besides that, I'd think a player who is alert enough to go for the flop/turn screwplay might lean toward slowplaying if he'd flopped something like 32 or 55, which shifts the ranges further toward some hand that found a way to improve on the turn. I think this is a trivially easy 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a pretty pointless post Nate. Stop telling me stuff I already know. I do think in terms of the range of possible opponent profiles. I know there are alot of opponents that can have just one pair here. Jesus christ, I know how to play poker. I was just trying to point out to JBA that whether he should 3bet the turn or not vs a typical tag is inherently close. I used my play as an example to show what I was talking about. I dont assume everyone plays like me. If you think this is a trivially easy 3-bet against a typical tag, then Im convinced youre 3betting the turn too much. The fact that a good, winning player like Jba even created this thread should clue you in on the reality that the turn play must be close. This thread would not exist if that was not so.

Nate, I highly respect your game and your posts, but I dont think any 2+2er has annoyed me more than you this past year. That said, I hope you never stop posting on 2+2 becuz many people appreciate your contributions including me, even If you do annoy the hell out of me. I also find my girlfriend annoying but I'll probably marry her.

[/ QUOTE ]

ILP,

I'm speaking partly out of experience because I went through a very long phase where I was running bad and playing kind of real defensive poker and the two things really seemed to feed off of one another. And then I snapped out of it and started running normally again. The irony, of course, is that I used to be considered a LAGTAG back before a LAGTAG became a standard TAG, and I had cut a lot of my laggier plays out because I had "discovered" them to be technically incorrect.

But I now believe that I was making the right plays for the wrong reasons. I may have overestimated my equity in certain situations but I was developing a great table image in the process, making myself harder to read, and -- here's the key -- creating opportunities for my opponents to make mistakes against me. The theory is basically this: the more you try and play mistake-free poker, the easier it becomes for your opponents to play mistake-free poker.

In this hand you have a decision which is fairly close if your opponent plays "perfectly", but is not at all close if the opponent plays imperfectly. So I'd say that the decision is in fact not very close, since we don't know how well our opponent plays. Above and beyond that, I would say that erring on the side of aggression in close decisions has metagame benefits that outweigh the increased variance that you must accept. If I had AT here and you called down to showdown after my turn raise and won the pot with your set of 4's, I would mark you as someone that did not like to gamble and I'd think that would be advantageous for the rest of the session, because I'd take the small amount of profit that you were willing to exchange for reduced variance and make it mine.

Re: is this close?
 

"The theory is basically this: the more you try and play mistake-free poker, the easier it becomes for your opponents to play mistake-free poker."

I agree 100% with this idea vs thinking players. A simple example of ultilizing this idea would be bet/3betting the flop with a simple flush draw oop in a HU pot. While this play will usually be technically incorrect. The confusion and distrust this kind of basic play creates for later hands is worth a lot more than its tiny cost.

However, against nonthinking bad players just taking the optimal line every time and trying to play mistake free poker is still where the money is at. The reality of poker for most players including me is that most of our income is going to come from these nonthinking bad players, so quite often we should be in this "play straight forward mistake free mode." For me, becuz I always surround myself with fish when I play poker, I seldom have an opportunity to take an "incorrect" line to make more future monies.

"In this hand you have a decision which is fairly close if your opponent plays "perfectly", but is not at all close if the opponent plays imperfectly. So I'd say that the decision is in fact not very close, since we don't know how well our opponent plays."

Jba refers to the villain as a tag. By definition a tag to me is someone who plays well. If he does not play well Jba may say wannabe tag or tagfish or bad tag, etc. Against someone who plays well, the turn play is close.

"Above and beyond that, I would say that erring on the side of aggression in close decisions has metagame benefits that outweigh the increased variance that you must accept."

I dont like erring on any side.

"If I had AT here and you called down to showdown after my turn raise and won the pot with your set of 4's, I would mark you as someone that did not like to gamble and I'd think that would be advantageous for the rest of the session, because I'd take the small amount of profit that you were willing to exchange for reduced variance and make it mine."

The only time I knowingly exchange profit for reduced variance is when I see a mildly profitable table but choose to do something else until a very profitable table develops. Whether I 3bet this turn with 44s or call down it will be becuz I'm convinced its the right play.

Re: is this close?
 

That reply was freaking gold.. Just want to add to what your talking about with the metagame effect of agression.

There are a few "cautious" regulars in games that I play with, who play solid ABC poker that are like open books to other good players who are willing to take risks to exploit them. Why? Because once you get to a certain competence level in poker, every good player has a decent understanding of the textbook plays for most siatuations.

Textbook ABC poker however is still exploitable poker. It doesn't involve any 3-bet bluffs on the turn with air on a rag board, it doesn't involve any capping on the river with a weak hand. Surprisngly, Optimal poker DOES. The reason people don't play this way is there are widely known accepeted flaws of the avergae poker player. They call too much when it's obvious there beat and they have a strong hand. All the best players in the small stakes fall victim to this (for good reason).

Another example where ABC poker can leave you exploitable is slowplaying in small pots. Say the hand is four way. Flop comes T26 in a 5 way unraised pot and you are in the BB with 22. If SB bets, you almost definitly want to call. If you had only 1 pair, you would now likely want to raise or fold to protect your hand.
Unfortuantly this basically turns your hand face open to someone who knows exactly how you think. A good player who knows this could take a line that might fold a pair if you raise, and if you call, can fold AA with ease. The opposite of what you want.
The same is true to a degree for agression levels on certain boards (although not nearly as exact).

If I know a player is playing meekly and is unlikely to adapt to counter what I'm doing, I can exploit situations where ABC poker leaves there hand vulnerable.
I can often put in an extra raise in a close situation, because I wont have to fear hands that only slightly beat me coming over the top... Or bluffs.

example:

You raise 66 CO and get 3-bet by an ABC button, blinds fold and you call.

Flop comes 457 two suited, you check/call
turn comes 9 , you check/raise.

Now let's examine the hand from buttons perspective.
Let's say he has a hand like QQ, or AKs with a flush draw.
If you take the "safe" route and are frequetnly calling down instead of 3-betting, you give any pair/draw the ability to rape your range by waiting to the turn. If you get agressive by 3-betting some overpairs and your flush draws, it will make many hands think twice about trying to get value from your AK/AQ/AJ hands... Yes you may lose more to a set/straight, but by being more agressive, you've scared your opponents into behaving and being predictable. They will have a pair or a draw way more than they will have a monster.

This is also true with turn donks. If you are always "calling down" strong hands to donks on scare cards (like 3-flush just made, board just paired) then opponents can bet these cards very liberally with their marginal hands, because they wont have to fear a raise, but still will get payed off by worse hands because it looks like a bluff.

That being said, the metgame effects of agression are hard to quantify and many times playing a hand passivly is often both safer (easier decisions) and most importantly, more profitable. And FWIW, I also think for the hand in discussion, the decision is close.

* EDIT/PS *Is it sad that I enjoy talking about the meta game effects of agression in short handed limit poker more than the topics of 99.9% of my daily conversations? *sigh*

Re: is this close?
 

In the spirit of making nonstandard plays vs thinking players. Heres a 10-20 hand I played months ago on Fulltilt. I cant find a hand converter for FullTilt so I'll have to type it out.

I have 88 in the BB. A superfish open limps UTG, HJ folds, and Baronzeus, who I consider a very strong player, raises in the CO, BTN & SB fold and I 3bet in the BB with 88s.

Pretty standard 3bet for as I know Baronzeus's range will be decently wide in this spot and if the Superfish folds preflop I'm happy to get the pot HU with dead money in the pot and if the Superfish calls my 3bet I'm happy getting 2-1 on my money with this hand in this situation.

Anyways, the Superfish calls as expected and Baronzeus caps and we both call.

The flop comes out 9d 8d 4c. Against many players my standard line is to donk/3bet the flop or check/call the flop and donk/3bet the turn. Both lines are designed to get the superfish to commit as many bets as possible drawing thin or dead. This is where the majority of my money will come from in the long run when the fish invariably draws dead one bet at a time, so any line that induces this type of action is probably going to be close to optimal.

However, since Baronzeus is a very strong player I believed he would be able to detect what I was up to if I either bet/3bet or called donked the turn and correctly give less action those times he has a big hand like an overpair.

I decided to take the line that would get Baron to spew the most possible should he have an overpair.

So I check/raised the flop for elimination forcing the superfish to call two cold even though he surely wouldve called one small bet with nothing. The superfish folded and Baron called.

The turn was the 8h giving me quads. I bet and Baron raised. I reraised and baron capped.

The river was a 4s making the final board 9d 8d 4c 8h 4s. I donked, Baron raised again. I 3bet and he called and showed AhAd.

I believe my flop check/raise for elimination caused Baron to give me more money than he should have since he probably put me on a marginal made hand like TT instead of a monster since he would know that trying to force the superfish out when I have a monster is generally a bad play. Once Baron put me on this marginal made hand he made the classic mistake of locking in on a read and waiting too long to change that read. When up against a great hand reader, making the wrong play at the right time can pay lots of dividends.

Re: is this close?
 

How is raising 55 bad?
Is it because u think sb is bet/folding a worse hand here?
If sb's range is 55-44,A5s-A4s,32s,A5o-A4o then we got 80% eq. If we add 32o to sb's range its just a slight favourite, but we dont complete 32o with 1 limper.

Re: is this close?
 

I like how you played your hand but Baronzeus IMO gave you an amateurish amount of action.

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like how you played your hand but Baronzeus IMO gave you an amateurish amount of action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with all of this. also, this might be line of the year:

"I also find my girlfriend annoying but I'll probably marry her."


The real story on this hand is that I am BB. I was looking over some hands of SB because it was noted in the stars thread that he's a very good player. When I first saw his turn 3bet I thought it might be bad, did some more thinking and realized that tons of players in this forum (including me) would make it too. and obviously my view was tainted by results.

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
agree raising those hands is bad.

i think it is close. if he caps, then yeah fold river ui.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is really really bad advice, if you fold after the turn is capped that is horrible horrible play i'm sorry.

Re: is this close?
 

3-bet.

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like how you played your hand but Baronzeus IMO gave you an amateurish amount of action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Perhaps I just caught Baron when he was on megatilt or maybe 10-20 is like 2 cent-4 cent for him and he just doesnt care. I would like to believe that my "suboptimal" line earned me more money but that does not have to be the case at all.

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nate, I highly respect your game and your posts, but I dont think any 2+2er has annoyed me more than you this past year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't feel bad Nate has been quite annoying everyone for much more than one year, I seem to recall schneids posting something like this about that long ago.

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
agree raising those hands is bad.

i think it is close. if he caps, then yeah fold river ui.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is really really bad advice, if you fold after the turn is capped that is horrible horrible play i'm sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]
obviously i dont but if i were the bb then it would be right. i'd have 55 or 23 err time

Re: is this close?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
agree raising those hands is bad.

i think it is close. if he caps, then yeah fold river ui.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is really really bad advice, if you fold after the turn is capped that is horrible horrible play i'm sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]
obviously i dont but if i were the bb then it would be right. i'd have 55 or 23 err time

[/ QUOTE ]

me too