NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

I posted my predictions for the totals this morning in last week's thread. Here are my plays:

2 units:
u149-110 (NEW MEXICO STATE vrs DUKE)
o149-110 (WESTERN MICHIGAN vrs OREGON)
o117½-110 (DELAWARE STATE vrs COLUMBIA)
o140-110 (HAMPTON vrs MARYLAND)

1 unit:
u157-110 (SIENA vrs SYRACUSE)
o122-110 (YOUNGSTOWN STATE vrs UCLA)
o137-110 (GEORGIA SOUTHERN vrs FLORIDA STATE)
o125-110 (THE CITADEL vrs SOUTH CAROLINA)
u158-110 (NEW MEXICO STATE vrs DUKE)

Today was a BIG learning experience as this is the first time I have hammered the totals right when they are released. Some very interesting line movements took place which have me very encouraged. Since this is maybe the only time I will post my predictions, I'll carry it out and compare them to the line movements here. Here are the movements for all my bets:

S Carolina-
My prediction: 131
Opened at: 123.5
Got my bet in at: 125
Current line: 133.5

Maryland
My prediction: 149
Opened: 140
My bet: 140
Current line: 148

FSU:
My prediction: 144
Opened: 137
My bet: 137
Current: 142

Oregon
My prection: 161
Open: 146.5 (WTF?)
My bet: 149
Current: 156

Syracuse
My prediction: 152
Open: 152
My bet: 157
Current: 157

Columbia
Prediction: 127
Open: 115
My bet: 117.5
Current: 119.5

UCLA
Prediction: 130
Open: 122
My bet: 122
Current: 122

and then there is Duke...

My prediction: 138
Open: 142
My bet: 149
Add a unit LOL: 158
Current: 158

I am confident the Duke situation is an anomaly. Their freshman must have been extremely impressive in the first game. I didn't make too much of the score of their first game since I don't really look at games against non division I teams, and their opponent was playing their first game in Div I. (Northwestern can beat a Div II team 105-40 and it won't tell you much.) But some smart people must be on top of the change in Duke's style of play with the new personel. I still got an extra unit on 158, but I'm not too confident about the 2 units I have at 149. If they win 85-50 I will be gloating afterwards though.

Sorry to dominate this thread so much. Maybe I should just make my own thread since there aren't many other posters, but whatever. I'll keep using the weekly threads for now I guess. Hopefully if anyone is following my plays, the info. above will be somewhat educational about my process.

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

indiana -24
loyola PK
UNC Charlotte -3.5

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

Adding...

1 unit:
o129½-110 (ARKANSAS LR vrs LOYOLA MARYMOUNT)

Not totally confident in this one, but it is worth a unit at this point.

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

The Duke total is up to 160 now. Jesus.

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

[ QUOTE ]
The Duke total is up to 160 now. Jesus.

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone with a very respected following released over 145.

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

I have Duke -18
Duke U147.5
Duke U160

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

LOL How crappy is this? I went to bet on S Carolina Under 137.5 which would give me a 12 point middle (I got Over 125 earlier.) Instead I misclicked on New Mexico/E Washington Under 137.5 (the only game I didn't cap, b/c of the two new coaches.) So not only do I get my money on that game, but it was my last unit in Bookmaker and I only have money left on Bodog now and they don't have the SC game so i can't get the middle. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] FWIW I'm not counting the UNM game on my official record. Bleh.

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

Ugh. So sick. Kinda like our game this weekend. Too bad I was there and had to witness that crap.

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh. So sick. Kinda like our game this weekend. Too bad I was there and had to witness that crap.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sucks. I will be at the Bama game. Will be much more fun, hopefully.

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

Adding...

One unit:
Ohio State/Wis-Green Bay Under 142

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

I'll be there too. I've only missed 2 games this year. @ LSU (sold the tix) and @ Arkansas (sold the tix).

6!

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

YTD 1-0 +1 Unit

Hampton +16.5 Risking 1.1 to win 1

Hampton has a more experienced squad then Maryland, returing 4 starters from an NCAA team last year. West of Hampton might be the best player on the court.

I also like the Wagerline line movement on this game (65% of people on Maryland, but the line moving towards Hampton). Can get 16.5 on Bodog.

Ken

EDIT: I'm on a different computer and forgot to log in under my name, my one win can be found in last week's thread by Ken_AA (Under on Buffalo game)

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

[ QUOTE ]
YTD 1-0 +1 Unit

Hampton +16.5 Risking 1.1 to win 1

Hampton has a more experienced squad then Maryland, returing 4 starters from an NCAA team last year. West of Hampton might be the best player on the court.

I also like the Wagerline line movement on this game (65% of people on Maryland, but the line moving towards Hampton). Can get 16.5 on Bodog.

Ken

EDIT: I'm on a different computer and forgot to log in under my name, my one win can be found in last week's thread by Ken_AA (Under on Buffalo game)

[/ QUOTE ]

My pick,
Ken

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

I like w. michigan +16 right now a lot.

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

[ QUOTE ]
YTD 1-0 +1 Unit

Hampton +16.5 Risking 1.1 to win 1

Hampton has a more experienced squad then Maryland, returing 4 starters from an NCAA team last year. West of Hampton might be the best player on the court.

I also like the Wagerline line movement on this game (65% of people on Maryland, but the line moving towards Hampton). Can get 16.5 on Bodog.

Ken

EDIT: I'm on a different computer and forgot to log in under my name, my one win can be found in last week's thread by Ken_AA (Under on Buffalo game)

[/ QUOTE ]

Well played, sir. I was on Hampton as well because of their experience and talent. Maryland should have a good squad this year, but I don't think they'll have very many blowout wins considering how young they are.

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

5-5 for my day, +0.3u

20-13 totals, 0-1 sides, +7.3u YTD

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

I got Utah -6 tonight at home against High Point
Vanderbilt -4 1/2 at Toledo.

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

Best Bet is Mississippi -11.5

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

Initial plays for today:

2 units:
TOTAL o136½-110 (VANDERBILT vrs TOLEDO)
TOTAL u134-110 (WASHINGTON STATE vrs BOISE STATE)
TOTAL u126½-110 (XAVIER vrs MIAMI OHIO)
u141-110 (YOUNGSTOWN ST vrs WEBER ST )
u160/u159-110 (FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON vrs SIENA ) (1 unit at each total.)

1 unit:
TOTAL o136½-110 (SOUTH ALABAMA vrs MISSISSIPPI)
TOTAL u141-110 (CHICAGO ST. vrs MICHIGAN STATE)
TOTAL o159-110 (NORTHERN ARIZONA vrs ARIZONA)

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

Adding:

1 unit:
u150-110 (SOUTH FLORIDA vrs BUFFALO)
another unit:
u147-110 (CHICAGO ST. vrs MICHIGAN STATE)

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I got Utah -6 tonight at home against High Point
Vanderbilt -4 1/2 at Toledo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Utah game is on a neutral court I believe

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

Adding:

2/3 unit (out of bookmaker funds)
(CLEVELAND STATE vrs GEORGE MASON)u130½-110

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

[ QUOTE ]
The Duke total is up to 160 now. Jesus.

[/ QUOTE ]

Free money. NwMxSt got one of the top frosh in the country this year, I'm sure that helped them.

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

[ QUOTE ]
TOTAL o136½-110 (SOUTH ALABAMA vrs MISSISSIPPI)


[/ QUOTE ]

Adding...

1 unit
Mississipi/S Alabama Under 151

Middles one time!

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Adding:

2/3 unit (out of bookmaker funds)
(CLEVELAND STATE vrs GEORGE MASON)u130½-110

[/ QUOTE ]

Adding 1/3 unit on Bodog
Cleveland St/GMU u130

So 1 full unit on the under total. Hopefully the 1/2 point won't matter in an easy win. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

Went 3-0 last night. Puts me at 4-2-1 on the year and +1.8 u.

Tonight:

Vandy -5 is my only play @ 1u.

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

Vandy -4.5
E. Carolina -3

rarely play NCAAB

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

Adding...

1 unit
Rice vs. TCU Under 141
Nevada vs. Cal Irvine Over 133

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

Added

1 unit each
Chigago St +28
Missouri -9
Syracuse -7

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

[ QUOTE ]

TOTAL o159-110 (NORTHERN ARIZONA vrs ARIZONA)

[/ QUOTE ]

Adding...

1 unit
TOTAL o152-110 (NORTHERN ARIZONA vrs ARIZONA)

2nd game of the year last year was NAZ @ AZ and was 101-79. Line seems way off like the Duke line last night, but anything can happen.

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

YTD 7-7 -0.8 Units

Columbia +12 2nd Half 1 Unit
Columbia/tOSU Under 72.5 2nd Half 1 Unit

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

1-1 on the day, even [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

Big day for me. 10-3 +9.5 units. That includes 1-1 for the middle I missed. I'm assuming that's how most people would count it.

YTD: 30-16 +17.8 units

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

11/14 openers...

2 units:
o139-110 (OKLAHOMA STATE vrs NORTH TEXAS)
o130-110 (IOWA STATE vrs BRADLEY)
o123-110 (IDAHO STATE vrs BYU)

1 unit:
o129-110 (UTEP vrs TEXAS A&M)
u164-110 (NORTH CAROLINA vrs DAVIDSON)

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

Anyone have any thoughts on UNC -11 @ davidson?

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone have any thoughts on UNC -11 @ davidson?

[/ QUOTE ]

Smells like a BSP to me. Watch out.

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

[ QUOTE ]
11/14 openers...

2 units:
o139-110 (OKLAHOMA STATE vrs NORTH TEXAS)


[/ QUOTE ]

Typo? If not, what a number - it's 149 now.

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
11/14 openers...

2 units:
o139-110 (OKLAHOMA STATE vrs NORTH TEXAS)


[/ QUOTE ]

Typo? If not, what a number - it's 149 now.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's correct. I had it capped at 156. I think I've gotten at least one line like this every day so far. As I recall, last year they tightened up as the year went on. Right now it's like fish in a barrel. The only hard part is hitting refresh on Bookmaker for 2 hours while I'm at work.

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone have any thoughts on UNC -11 @ davidson?

[/ QUOTE ]

Line opened at -11.5, and more then 60% of the wagerline bets are going in on NC..... so obviously the line moves to 11 even.

Davidson is one of the absolute best mid majors this season. This Curry kid is a legit player that will be able to play with the NC guards. Game at a neutral site.

Davidson put up 120 on D3 Emory in a warmup game, which is nice since NC will be making their season debut tonight.

I really like Davidson in this matchup....

Davidson +11 -105 (Bodog) 2.1 to win 2

YTD 2-0 +2 Units.

Ken

Re: NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)
 

Line opened at 10.5 at 5:28 the other day, not 11.5.
I lean UNC as good as Davidson may be. Ginyard can be in Curry's face all night. Green is almost as sick an athlete as well. I don't see how Davidson stops Tyler, Deon, Alex inside or runs with Lawson and Ellington.

I also think line is artificially low because this is being reported as a 'home' game for Davidson. While in Charlotte, the majority of fans will be Heel fans who can't trek to CH for every game, like 90% of the state. Trust me on that.
I also think because Dav beat a D3 team by 100 and UNC hasn't played yet, but, c'mon, they are a Final Four team with virtually everyone back but Wright, and the stud Fr/So are now Sophs and Juniors, and UNC's bench of Thompson, Frasor, Green, Thomas + frosh is much better than Davidson's bench.

Without a Ginyard-type player, I'd lean Davidson. Not here though. If Hansborough starts fouls out Wildcats front-line, it could get very ugly in a hurry. Lean UNC so far, hoping for spread to drop...