Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

The best time to bet NCAA football games is right when they open on Sunday evening (usually somewhere from 4-7 PM, with Cris and Pinny usually opening around the same time).

I think it might be handy to get a cross-section of opinions on what some of the forum's NCAAF junkies think the correct line should be (and maybe what they think it will open at and where the opportunity may be) regarding their most closely-followed teams and the other major games.

I am a Kentucky expert. Kent St. comes to Lexington next week after knocking off Iowa State in Ames. Without knowing a great deal about Kent State, I'd like Kentucky at -7 or better, and Kent St. at +14 or better. After the Kent State win, I think a reasonable possibility exists it will open around -6 at which I would like Kentucky quite a bit at home.

I will do some research on Kent State and also some of next week's other games and follow up.

Chime in with your thoughts!

P.S. The next Michigan spread should be interesting.

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Kentucky -11.5
Michigan -4

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

really curious about the following lines:

USF @ Auburn (-6) ???
Boise St (-5) ??? @ Wash

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

I have Auburn -2.5
and Boise -2

from my power index

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Kentucky -11.5 sounds pretty much dead on what I would consider a correct line.

If you have Auburn -2.5...you're gonna be loading up on USF. Does that -2.5 factor in home field?

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

VT/LSU anyone? I'm thinking LSU -6.5 or 7. Wouldn't start liking VT until past 10. They looked pretty blah today - can't see them getting too many points on the board against LSU.

O/U on this will need to be pretty low.

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

LSU -10 according to my index


yeah...everything includes home field advantage

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Did you notice that USF didn't exactly pound Elon today?

I think 7 would be basically right for that game.

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

MIAMI @ OKLAHOMA ?????

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Oklahoma -9 from my ratings

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Navy at Rutgers
Utah St @ Wyoming
BYU @ UCLA
ND @ Penn St
o/u on TCU @ Texas
o/u on VT @ LSU
Wisconsin @ UNLV

Any thought on projected lines for these games?

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
Navy at Rutgers
Utah St @ Wyoming
BYU @ UCLA
ND @ Penn St
o/u on TCU @ Texas
o/u on VT @ LSU
Wisconsin @ UNLV

Any thought on projected lines for these games?

[/ QUOTE ]

Penn St -11

Whatever the VT/LSU O/U is, it has got to be REAL low. I can't imagine it opening low enough that I won't take under.

I don't know what it opens at, but...I gotta be thinking a correct O/U is right around 30-31. I'm thinking team O/U's around 20 and 10. And 20 for LSU might be generous.

(Why in the [censored] do they start that piece of [censored] white tailback? Frickin' Kentucky has at least 3 backs better than him.)

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

If I like the lines I'm looking at taking every home team on my list besides UNLV.

Also hoping for an under on both games I listed.

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

I can see PSU being -14 (and I like ND)

that O isn't going to get into the end zone

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Games where I'm thinking the opening lines will likely be significantly off:

Virginia Tech at LSU: Thinking this will open around 7, when really the Tigers should be favored by 10-14 at home. Glennon's going to get eaten alive by that LSU defense.

Navy at Rutgers: Navy's going to get some credit for what they did last year, but their D only has 3 starters back and they did not look ready for primetime at all against Temple. I really have no idea where this will actually open, but at 17 or less, it's an easy bet on RU.

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

navy and nevada both fall in my category of "teams with special seasons last year, who generally have personnel that isn't nearly that good, so they will likely be overrated early this season by bettors who over-prioritize their perception of the program and under-consider the current lineups."

in a similar but different category, my unscientific handicapping method found a pick in cal yesterday, in the "programs going in different directions" category.

last year i was all about picking off opening lines, but now i think the easiest lines to bet into by far are on gameday. plus with pinnacle gone, i just don't think the extra handicapping effort on sunday night, pays sufficient dividends next saturday.

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

LSU -9, and I wanted to bet VT in this game until I saw them play,
Okla -9.5 and I'd still bet them
Mich -3
PSU -12.5
Rutgers -14

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Does anybody even know what books will be opening when? (None open yet it appears.)

I called Bookmaker/BetCris and the lady told me their lines wouldn't be up until Tuesday, which would be out of character - their slogan has always been "Where the Line Originates" and last year they opened about right when Pinny did...anyone?

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

they might be holding off to get action on the two monday games

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Nevermind, bookmaker just opened.

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

michigan -13.5

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
michigan -13.5

[/ QUOTE ]

what????????I'm seeing 6.5

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

I don't see much I like really.

Would consider Kent State at 14.5, maybe small at 14.

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Wow - PSU opened at -11, now -13.5 5 minutes later.

Wish I had listened to you guys.

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Bowling Green +16 @ Mich St bet 3.3u to win 3u

this line is off by alot

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

I have got to start trusting my frickin' instincts.

Kent now down to 13, missed Memphis at -3, missed UGA at -5.5...when am I going to grow a penis?

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

With you on both MyTurn.

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bowling Green +16 @ Mich St bet 3.3u to win 3u

this line is off by alot

[/ QUOTE ]

17 and rising.

damn close on those psu, rutgers, and OU lines.

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Not getting the early lines this week so no bets yet, but just looking at the lines, I like Louisville -38.5, Rutgers -13, Temple -3.5, Southern Miss +12, and Penn State -14. Oregon looks pretty decent at +7 too, but I'm scared to bet them when I know the squares are going to be fading Michigan.

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
michigan -13.5

[/ QUOTE ]

what????????I'm seeing 6.5

[/ QUOTE ]

-13.5 by KO

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Louisville's 15-2 ATS at home the last 3 years and their home/road splits are ridiculous. I'd stay away from MTSU on the road.

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Washington +3.5 v Boise St bet 2.2u to win 2u

Bama -4.5 @ Vandy bet 1.1u to win 1u

that's all I'll grab for now
nothing else that I have to jump on

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

Temple -2.5 1.1u to win 1 unit.

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oregon +7 @ Michigan bet 1.1u to win 1u

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm worried about this one. As bad as Henne looked, the Oregon defense looked just as weak, and I think Hart can torch us. Dixon appears to still be just as inconsistent as ever, and I have many doubts about his ability to take advantage of the Michigan defense's obvious weaknesses. If Michigan gives up after last week, this line could be good, but if they come out fired up and looking to get respect back I think this could get ugly fast. Oregon covered by virtue of four turnovers, a blocked punt, and two explosion TDs last week. I don't expect the same fortune this week, nor do I expect Dixon to make it through a second game without throwing a pick.

I'm an Oregon homer, but despite covering last week, I think if you watched the game you'd agree that the Ducks are weaker than expected this year, and after losing to a 1-AA team that is better than most people think, Michigan seems like a natural team to bet on this week, if only to fade the overreaction of the public. My lean is that Michigan -7 is the better bet.

Of course, here's hoping I'm wrong... go Ducks!

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

i lied, had to hit Oregon St for another unit with the line falling

Oregon St -3 @ Cinci bet 1.1u to win 1u

Re: Week 2 NCAAF - project the opening lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oregon +7 @ Michigan bet 1.1u to win 1u

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm worried about this one. As bad as Henne looked, the Oregon defense looked just as weak, and I think Hart can torch us. Dixon appears to still be just as inconsistent as ever, and I have many doubts about his ability to take advantage of the Michigan defense's obvious weaknesses. If Michigan gives up after last week, this line could be good, but if they come out fired up and looking to get respect back I think this could get ugly fast. Oregon covered by virtue of four turnovers, a blocked punt, and two explosion TDs last week. I don't expect the same fortune this week, nor do I expect Dixon to make it through a second game without throwing a pick.

I'm an Oregon homer, but despite covering last week, I think if you watched the game you'd agree that the Ducks are weaker than expected this year, and after losing to a 1-AA team that is better than most people think, Michigan seems like a natural team to bet on this week, if only to fade the overreaction of the public. My lean is that Michigan -7 is the better bet.

Of course, here's hoping I'm wrong... go Ducks!

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand, which is why I only bet one unit.

I had the game Michigan -5 coming into the season. With last week, I dropped my breakeven line to -4, which I posted earlier in this thread. 7 points seems to be a gift.