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- - WTF!?!?! asdf (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=553754)

No reads since this is my 5th hand at the table. Villain isn't fully stacked though fwiw so he's prob not great

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $188.60
UTG: $200
Hero (BTN): $199
SB: $34.20

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to $7, Hero raises to $26, SB folds, BB calls $24, UTG folds

Flop: ($60) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($60) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($60) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $50, BB raises to $162.60 and is All-In, Hero?

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

being only 12 short could just be that he didnt notice he was short. couldnt this be AK/AQ that tried to c/r flop, was scared of turn, then on river realized his hand was good. so rarely is this a bluff. nh the whole way.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

Strange spott, I can't believe villain checked an A three times to you.

Looks like he's turning some kind of mid pair into a bluff. He might have slowplaying AK till the end, because he figured you'd valuebet QQ+ on the river, but I'm looking villain up here.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

Though villain sucks, it's worth noting that your hand is at the very very top of your range.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

id prefer a turn b/f, but after getting to the river how you did i snap call this.
if he has an A he cant expect you to bet the river after you check both flop and turn, and i would never expect him to check 3 streets with Ax

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

I think he's got AA or we beat him. I call this especially if I think he can hand read.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

really isn't a snap anything. xanta, i don't really think game theory comes into it here.

I think it's a call one of those shrug your shoulders spot, because there's not much we can say here. However, his line suggests he's a donkey.

cs3, not necessarily

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

[ QUOTE ]

cs3, not necessarily

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he wouldnt neccessarily check 3 times with AX or you wouldnt neccessarily prefer b/f the turn?

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

I think he has a boat, probaly 22, too often tbh, so i fold.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

yeah i edited out snap [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I mean, his range is just soooo narrow here it's nuts. Unless he's ccing pf with Axs and then waited to the river to go for value (which would actually be decent postflop play) then wtf can he have?

I dunno, it's either AA or a 'fu, you can't call a shove' type spots.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

oh sorry, the former. I like a turn b/f i think there's a little more value on the turn then the river(flush draws), and his range won't be too more defined if he checks the river to us. Also, if he was going to bluff at it he's not much more likely he'll bluff the river if the turn goes check/check, then bluff the turn after the flop goes check/check.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

again xanta, not necessarily. We really can't speculate, he could have Ax here i guess.

only thing we can say is that his line is fishy, we look kinda weak, we are getting decent odds.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

so call right? if we bet, i cant see folding being correct

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

Call.

I'm gonna play AK like villain next time and see what happens [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

BTW: Shpanko, don't EVER EVER change your avatar

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

[ QUOTE ]
yeah i edited out snap [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I mean, his range is just soooo narrow here it's nuts. Unless he's ccing pf with Axs and then waited to the river to go for value (which would actually be decent postflop play) then wtf can he have?

I dunno, it's either AA or a 'fu, you can't call a shove' type spots.

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Wow, weird hand... But I think this is not a bad analysis. Idk... I don't mind calling though because his line makes little sense and makes me think bluff. Don't mind folding either though... Meh

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

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so call right? if we bet, i cant see folding being correct

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i think we have to call. damn marginal though

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

Fold. People don't turn midpairs into bluffs here at 1/2. It's A LOOOOOOT more likely he checked an A 3 times.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. People don't turn midpairs into bluffs here at 1/2. It's A LOOOOOOT more likely he checked an A 3 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. This is just not a bluff very often. You just don't see people doing it here, especially at 1/2.

Sure, it's a good spot to bluff for villian given your range. But very few people can even think on this level, to put all this together, to turn a made hand into a bluff, or to turn a hand like KQ they decided to check three times and all of a sudden make a huge river play.

Also, people, especially non-2p2ers, check aces here three times (or a hand like 22) more often than you'd think.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

easy fold on the river..

Id much prefer a turn bet and a river check....though obv bet river as played.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

i think this a rarely a bluff given your large river bet and the board texture. it looks like he is just one of those bad tricky trappy players who thinks make a big hand = check.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

fold. It's not exactly far fetched for him to check Ax three times.

Bet turn also.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

[ QUOTE ]
No reads since this is my 5th hand at the table. Villain isn't fully stacked though fwiw so he's prob not great

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $188.60
UTG: $200
Hero (BTN): $199
SB: $34.20

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to $7, Hero raises to $26, SB folds, BB calls $24, UTG folds

Flop: ($60) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($60) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($60) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $50, BB raises to $162.60 and is All-In, Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is tough because you've thoroughly established your hand as < Ax. A on the flop is also what almost anyone bluffs at, if they're bluffing, or bluff-merging with a low pair. Checking the turn puts your hand face-up.

Many people will bet the turn with a good Ax, but they have to be careful. You might have checked the flop with an even better Ax for deception. But given that you're likely taking one off anyway, betting turn or river doesn't matter much for villain. If he feels he has the best Ax a lot (or better obv), then he will tend to bet turn and river, in order to let strong underpairs make mistakes or worse Ax.

But let's say he gets to the river with his remaining range: weak Ax with or without redraw (A6-AT), low pocket pairs (66-TT), big pocket pairs (JJ-KK). He will probably valuebet the high pocket pairs himself. He will not do something funky with them like c/r because you're unlikely to bet with worse or call with worse. So that leaves hands that can potentially c/r the river: weak Ax, low pocket pairs, bluffs. You are inclined to call river bets from villain with most of your range (esp because your range is stronger pps), but also medium pps because of ae jones theorem. We might have to reconsider that though because you are expected to call the river with most of your range so why would he reverse valuetown himself. The same applies vise versa. Betting the bottom end of your range is ill-advised because he's inclined to call wide; but then again should he thusly? etc.

If we take range-merging and betting because having to call anyway stuff out, then we can expect the action to go bet-call or check-call if you both have high pps.

This makes this a pretty nice balancing situation because he can c/r valuebet and c/r bluff his whole remaining range, forcing you to play incorrectly.

I think anyone capable of doing this as a bluff is also capable of doing this for value.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

Think I prefer a smaller bet on the river ($40)..
I don't like the turn check in position. Definitely worth protecting your hand on a drawy board.
As for the river raise.. this is a tough spot with no reads. might have been an easier decision by betting the turn.. Betting the river looks bluffy- since there is no way you would play AAA like this.. He could shove with air here quite easily..

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

I don't think this is as complicated as you guys make it out to be. He c/r the river over a fairly big bet and it's only like $100 more to you. He's unknown, it's 1/2, pretty easy fold when you think about it.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

imo this is a fold. I posted something similar a wee while ago when the BB cold called my 3bet and I had KK. This is so often AK, AA unless a complete donk. In any case with no reads I fold this.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

I agree that betting the turn is best given the nature of the board. On the river I think I should bet maybe a tad less as well. Anyway I couldn't believe he checked a better hand 3 times so I called and he had 22 for the boat. I don't feel too bad since he didn't have odds to set mine anyway, though since this is rarely a bluff folding is certainly an option.

Moral of the story, never assume donks think like rational people...even though his river c/r is pretty money in this case lol.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

I like a turn bet. River, I shrug and call, really confused.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

gross i fold, if u bet like weakish say 35 and got c/rd then id look him up but i just dont think hes bluffing here ever

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

I think a call here is pretty bad.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

Calling river c/raises vs unknowns w/out the nuts at 1/2 is a bad idea. People are overthinking this.

Re: WTF!?!?! asdf

This can only be a complicated hand against someone you have a lot of history with, or at least someone who we know is thinking.

Calling here is bad, and I think you should bet a little less on the river. Betting $35 or something on the turn is not bad option either.