Is optimism insane?
 

I'm going around and I am very surprised to see so many people thinking the outlook of online poker in the US is bad.

I frankly think a 2nd pokerboom is coming. I expect at least online poker, and perhaps online gambling as a whole to be legal withint 2 years?

Am I just living in a dream world? The climate seems to constantly be changing for the better.

Even the politicains didn't want this as a long term law, they just wanted to stifle the market so they could move it all to the US.

Scummy, sure, but to think there won't be gambling, especially poker, seems to be pessimistic for the sake of being pessimistic.

Harrah's bought Party. Am I the only one not blind as a bat?

KK

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Harrah's bought Party.

[/ QUOTE ]

What???

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

And just what does Party have that Harrah needs. Party's software is obsolete, their customers will leave for the right bonuses and the US will make it appealing to US taxpayers to play at Harrahs. No way they pay a nickle for Party Gaming.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

my point was just that internet gambling is very close to coming back legally to the US, as I see it.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

I for one have tried to maintain an overall optimistic, glass half full point of view in all my posts. I have tried to be the voice of reason and rationality and maintaining a level head post UIGEA. I guess the positive, "never panic" attitude conveyed in my posts is acting like a beacon of light and hope for the future of poker.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I for one have tried to maintain an overall optimistic, glass half full point of view in all my posts. I have tried to be the voice of reason and rationality and maintaining a level head post UIGEA. I guess the positive, "never panic" attitude conveyed in my posts is acting like a beacon of light and hope for the future of poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only way to make sense of THIS post is to redate it to the day before. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

As for optomisim in general, there are reasons to be optomistic as far as onliine poker is concerned: Frist and Leach are gone; WTO; Barney Frank; and the success fo FTP and Pokerstars.

Also, the next few months will, I think, see a change in the e-funding world where operators look at what has happened, consult with lawyers, and develop new strategies for funding poker sites only, possibly with individual state restrictions. This will put the DOJ to a severe test of its long spread belief that "poker is already illegal." When the DOJ has to back down on that, at least with respect to poker in most states, a new poker boom is likely.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I expect at least online poker, and perhaps online gambling as a whole to be legal withint 2 years?

Am I just living in a dream world?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any objective evidence to support your wild supposition?

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

"Am I the only one not blind as a bat?"

No, gaboonviper is too.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

Where there is money, so too will be the US gaming interests. I agree with the OP that there will be an online gaming industry in the US. I disagree with Harrahs buying Party. I think that the purchaser will be a private equity group.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I expect at least online poker, and perhaps online gambling as a whole to be legal withint 2 years?

Am I just living in a dream world?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any objective evidence to support your wild supposition?

[/ QUOTE ]

How is it wild, exactly? No one who counts actually wants it illegal, they just want their piece of the pie. From the day the bill was passed it smelled of backdoor dealings to get their hands in it.

I haven't been worried since day 1 and things only seem to be getting better now.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, the next few months will, I think, see a change in the e-funding world where operators look at what has happened, consult with lawyers, and develop new strategies for funding poker sites only, possibly with individual state restrictions. This will put the DOJ to a severe test of its long spread belief that "poker is already illegal." When the DOJ has to back down on that, at least with respect to poker in most states, a new poker boom is likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually think there is some importance to this happening. The question remains though, who is willing to take the risk, and will they do it in a way that is similar enough to the Neteller operating model that it doesn't cost customers an arm and a leg...

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

I think Moneygram offering it's services to fund Pokerstars sends a loud message. Their business model wasn't what Neteller was, but part of their business supplied what was needed and they jumped on it.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

I think there is way too much money to be made for someone not to take the risk - even if they only operated in, say, California (a state where playing online poker is almost certainly not against the law) thats still a lot of money moving around.

What the fees will be, now that is a real open question and beyond my expertise. Clearly though, any new company that can work with fees lower than ePASS and MyWebATM would be poised to dominate the market very quickly.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

I work in the industry, so I have a vested interest I guess, but I remain an optimist.

However, my current opinion (which is all it is at the moment) is probably a mix of those which regularly get posted here. To my great disappointment, I have to say that (despite his obvious attempts at sensationalism) our friend gaboonviper is probably correct in that I think that most (if not all) of the sites will get forced out of the US market in the short run. They all have a tolerance limit for risk and hassle, and the regulations could well find it.

However, in the medium term (by which I mean at the latest by mid 2008) I expect to see something extremely novel enter the market. I believe this because I totally agree with skallgrim in that the market is too big to be ignored. In a best case scenario I expect this solution to totally change the landscape and hopefully eliminate the need to 'reverse the gears of congress' as it were..

In the long run I fully expect the legalisation of the market worldwide, so I feel there is very little to worry about in that respect (however the long run could be a VERY long time).

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

Thank you for agreeing with me count. I have always tried to maintain the voice of reason in all my posts.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

I don't totally agree with you; a lot of your posts are designed to be alarmist and sensationalist in nature, and I think you are unhelpful in that regard. I do think (and it's only a personal opinion) that the general thrust of your posts may turn out correct. I don't want that to happen (I will almose certainly lose my job), but I have the view that the effects of the legislation and regulations will not be defined by the specific wording of the items.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

"Even the politicains didn't want this as a long term law, they just wanted to stifle the market so they could move it all to the US."

I agree with this, I always felt a hostile takeover was in the works.

I'm sorry, Harrah's bought Party? Is that TRUE???!!!

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
"Even the politicains didn't want this as a long term law, they just wanted to stifle the market so they could move it all to the US."

I agree with this, I always felt a hostile takeover was in the works.

I'm sorry, Harrah's bought Party? Is that TRUE???!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I was told this by a friend, and I assumed it was true, but I haven't been able to verify it, sorry about that.

I know harrah's HAS developed online poker software, and they wouldn't be doing that if they thought the US was going to keep its current stance.

Large corporations like Harrah's are well aware of most of the true nature of our public policy. If they have software, it'll be legal sooner rather than later.

I was told the software is already being used in-house, on an intranet, don't know if this is true.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

No one's buying Party. They have nothing of value, except a cash flow, and now that's gone.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
No one's buying Party. They have nothing of value, except a cash flow, and now that's gone.

[/ QUOTE ]

This couldn't be further from the truth.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was told this by a friend, and I assumed it was true, but I haven't been able to verify it, sorry about that.

I know harrah's HAS developed online poker software, and they wouldn't be doing that if they thought the US was going to keep its current stance.

Large corporations like Harrah's are well aware of most of the true nature of our public policy. If they have software, it'll be legal sooner rather than later.

I was told the software is already being used in-house, on an intranet, don't know if this is true.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe this could well be true, as for whether this was the implicit aim of the politicians I'm not so sure. While I have no doubt that they were aware of the consequences in this regard, I believe that it was merely one of a number of motivations.

However, one of the benefits of my current view is that it implies that all the big US gaming giants (who could easily be criticised for standing aside and rubbing their hands with delight as potential competitors were forced out) may well have made a huge error of judgement. If they end up restricting their own ability to enter the market they are in a worse position if my prediction about a novel solution comes true. They would have been much better off aggressively pushing and lobbying for the legalisation of online gambling, and then purchasing an established company.

Please correct me if I am wrong on the attitude of the gaming corps while the UIGEA was being passed..

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I know harrah's HAS developed online poker software, and they wouldn't be doing that if they thought the US was going to keep its current stance.

Large corporations like Harrah's are well aware of most of the true nature of our public policy. If they have software, it'll be legal sooner rather than later.

I was told the software is already being used in-house, on an intranet, don't know if this is true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there room in your thinking, to give thought to the possibility that Harrah's may enter the non-US online gaming market? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

this doesn't strike me as a market worth entering. I'm not sure online poker can survive the long run without US fish. The games seem to get tougher everyday.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"Even the politicains didn't want this as a long term law, they just wanted to stifle the market so they could move it all to the US."

I agree with this, I always felt a hostile takeover was in the works.

I'm sorry, Harrah's bought Party? Is that TRUE???!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I was told this by a friend, and I assumed it was true, but I haven't been able to verify it, sorry about that.

I know harrah's HAS developed online poker software, and they wouldn't be doing that if they thought the US was going to keep its current stance.

Large corporations like Harrah's are well aware of most of the true nature of our public policy. If they have software, it'll be legal sooner rather than later.

I was told the software is already being used in-house, on an intranet, don't know if this is true.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was told by a friend that that Superman and Batman exists and I believed it so much that I posted it on Wikipedia and got millions of my friends to do the same. Therefore, it is now true.

Don't believe everything that you hear. Unless it's confirmed, it's best to forgo rumors and speculation.

Of course, it could be that we are a day late with the annual April fool's joke, then it's not really that funny.

Seriously, even though I hold out hope that there will be a possibility of the issues facing online poker to correct themselves so that it's easier to fund accounts (mainly easier than it is to do already, see the Internet Gambling Forum for details), I'll reserve my cautious optimism for another day.

I fully subscribe to believing nothing of what I hear and verifying everything that I read.

It works for me.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

You can't stop progress. The Internet has transformed our lives, including the way we play poker.

If the American authorities are throwing arcane laws from 1961 at successful web businesses, then they're seriously stupid. This will hurt ALL enterpeneurs... but maybe that's their aim.

We've hit a rocky patch, but online poker will continue with us or without us - you can't turn back the clock. America can choose to join the world or they can sulk like it's still 1999.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]

I was told this by a friend, and I assumed it was true, but I haven't been able to verify it, sorry about that.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah because confirming that kind of information is so difficult. :-)

Go to Harrah's website and look under Investor Relations:

http://investor.harrahs.com/phoenix....;p=irol-irhome

Or go to Party and look under investor relations:

http://www.partygaming.com/investor/

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You can't stop progress. The Internet has transformed our lives, including the way we play poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

The internet has not transformed my life in any way. In fact, I never even use the internet.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
No one's buying Party. They have nothing of value, except a cash flow, and now that's gone.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're a CPA?

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

What part of the Balance sheet do you like Bill? And the P/E, how about that? And the value of the intangible assets? And their Cash position? No more dividends? Obsolete software?

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What part of the Balance sheet do you like Bill? And the P/E, how about that? And the value of the intangible assets? And their Cash position? No more dividends? Obsolete software?

[/ QUOTE ]

You said cash flow.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The internet has not transformed my life in any way. In fact, I never even use the internet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ironic? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No one's buying Party. They have nothing of value, except a cash flow, and now that's gone.

[/ QUOTE ]

This couldn't be further from the truth.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The games seem to get tougher everyday.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I'm getting better then, because people keep saying this and I find just the opposite to be the case, that I'm doing better than ever.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The games seem to get tougher everyday.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hopefully all this means is when the US market opens up in 2-3 years those who have manage to survive and make a profit. Will make a killing. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The internet has not transformed my life in any way. In fact, I never even use the internet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ironic? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently the internet hasn't transformed YOUR life enough to understand sarcasm.

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The games seem to get tougher everyday.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I'm getting better then, because people keep saying this and I find just the opposite to be the case, that I'm doing better than ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you aren't being serious here. I'm sure you are telling the truth about your profits going up, but not only is it painfully obvious the games are tougher, it's simply the only logical result of taking however many million people out of the player pool. Nothing else can happen except the games getting tougher. The american pros are still playing, so unless you think that the american fish were making the games tougher, your post seems a little silly.

KK

Re: Is optimism insane?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Apparently the internet hasn't transformed YOUR life enough to understand sarcasm.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't tap the glass.