$$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

DrBob seems to be on UGA, GaT, UCLA, Fla, EMich, Mich St, Zona, Nebraska.

Strong Opinion - Rotation #385 Ohio St (-7) Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #351 Virginia Tech (+5 1/2) Strong Opinion at +5 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #349 Colorado (-8 1/2) Strong Opinion at -10 or less. 2-Stars at -7 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #406 Middle Tennessee St (+10 1/2) Strong Opinion at +10 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +11 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #307 Utah (+14 1/2) Strong Opinion at +14 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #328 Auburn (-7 1/2) Strong Opinion at -9 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -7 or less (-115 odds or better).
Strong Opinion - Rotation #393 Arizona St (-8) Strong Opinion at -9 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #314 Rutgers (-3 1/2) Strong Opinion at -5 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less (-115 odds or better).
Strong Opinion - Rotation #363 Fresno State (+3 1/2) Strong Opinion at +3 or more.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

Dr. Bob is betting 6 of the same games as me this week and we're on opposite sides in each one. 1-0 Austiger so far.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

all 1u
Rutgers -3
Kentucky +4
Penn St. -7
Fla +10
UNC +8.5
Utah +15
Kent u57.7/-105

CFB ytd 26-18-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, +10.4u using all dime lines unless otherwise specified.

Nice early line grabs on PSU, RU, Fla and UNC, UK was looking good until Dr Bob moved it to 5, still not many games end on 5.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

[ QUOTE ]
DrBob seems to be on UGA, GaT, UCLA, Fla, EMich, Mich St, Zona.

[/ QUOTE ]
I swear DrBob is intentionally tanking this year

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

Rotation # 361 Georgia (+1) 3-Stars at pick or dog, 2-Stars from -1 to -2.
Rotation #377 Georgia Tech (-2 1/2) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars at -3 1/2 or -4.
Rotation #383 Florida (+7 1/2) 3-Stars at +7 1/2 or more, 2-Stars from +7 to +6. [how did this open at 10??]
Rotation #320 Michigan State (-14 1/2) 2-Stars at -16 or less, 3-Stars at -14 or less.
Rotation #371 Arizona (+4) 2-Stars at +3 or more.
Rotation #388 UCLA (-20 1/2) 4-Stars at -21 or less, 3-Stars from -21 1/2 to -24, 2-Stars from -24 1/2 to -26
Rotation #355 Nebraska (+7) 3-Stars at +7 or more, 2-Stars from +6 1/2 to +6.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

[ QUOTE ]

I swear DrBob is intentionally tanking this year

[/ QUOTE ]

lol working for vegas now?

Here's what I have for his record thus far:

4-star 1-2
3-star 5-9-2
2-star 12-16
Strong Opinion 12-14

(note that i count as a separate play for each "i'll take X as a 2 star at X and (same team) as a strong opinion at X")

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I swear DrBob is intentionally tanking this year

[/ QUOTE ]

lol working for vegas now?

Here's what I have for his record thus far:

4-star 1-2
3-star 5-9-2
2-star 12-16
Strong Opinion 12-14


[/ QUOTE ]

No, just posting "I'm taking XYZ" and then betting the other way after it moves 2 pts and blows thru key numbers.

What was his bowl season like last year?

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
DrBob seems to be on UGA, GaT, UCLA, Fla, EMich, Mich St, Zona.

[/ QUOTE ]
I swear DrBob is intentionally tanking this year

[/ QUOTE ]

If you did this once every 7-8 years, it wouldn't hurt your win % much but really boost the bankroll. Hmmmm. [Of course he would say he didn't actually bet the games if he were shady or not.]

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

it's more like I have my own numbers and they've aligned with Dr Bob quite a bit over the past few years

This year, my numbers differ with him on nearly every pick...sometimes dramatically

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

naj - but would all the lost/ticked-off subscribers or potential future subscribers make up for the EV gain on those games?


NCSt is +17.5 at FSU.
It's supposed to rain this Saturday. Not one of those "might have occasional showers" type of scenarios but a bit more significant precip than that. So I'm thinking about it.

In other news, bought a couple tix for this game.
We're in the 60th row somewhere on the 5 yd line. Woo-hoo!!

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

Okay, you edited the games. I like some of those. Hopefully that's not a bad sign.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

To tank 10% of the time? No. You could make way more $$$ going the other way occasionally if you will run 58% the other 9 years, let's say. That's still 56.4% win-rate. [feel free to adjust #s using his, 57-58% iirc]

Then, the year [or every 9-10th week] you tank, you're getting ND 2.5 pts better, LSU at -7 instead of -8.5, OrgSt at -3 instead of 4-4.5, Tech at 3, UK at +6 instead of +3.5 -- I know you know this adds up to huge +EV. The $$$ to be made >>> $1k CFB subscriber or whatever, plus the people who understand the long-term will still stay around.

And you can tip off heavy bettors on top of that. Not saying he does, just that it's a possibility for anyone who moves the lines. Or he's running cold. Or he over-fitted his models in the off-season. Or added the wrong variable. etc.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

[ QUOTE ]
it's more like I have my own numbers and they've aligned with Dr Bob quite a bit over the past few years

This year, my numbers differ with him on nearly every pick...sometimes dramatically

[/ QUOTE ]

Notice how many plays he's moved down to -3 or less lately, and those he's moved over 10, 14, and 21 in recent weeks? Anyone else find that odd - like Troy last week he moved from 11 to 7.5/8, etc.
MTSU, RU, Utah, Auburn, Fresno, Neb, ND, Zona, Fla, GT.

The more I think about it, the less it seems like a coincidence. Just take opposite side on a few games you've pushed thru key numbers....undetectable. And lines move so fast most subscribers can't get the best line, so if they take a bad line it's their fault anyways.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

"drbob is having a horrible year. Rice is winning big right now. This pick is worst than his 4** Rutgers pick over Maryland by 30. Time to fade this fading handicapper. The books aren't even worried about DrBob."

response from the dr. bob thread elsewhere...

hmmm...

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

Wow, UGA has come all the way back to be a one point favorite.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

Rather than picking an entire year to tank, wouldn't Dr. Bob be better off just picking the wrong side on a couple games each week where the line's moving that direction anyway?

Say the public's going to be betting on Road Favorite U close to game time. Well since Dr. Bob's going to be betting later in the week anyway, he could do a backwards pick there and go for the full benefit while still releasing real picks on all the games where he found soft opening lines.

Even if the subscriber fees are negligible (which I really doubt that they are), it's still stupid to slay the golden goose and ruin all of your future ability to move the lines by doing all your fade picks at once.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

Naj- Do you have Dr Bob's writeup for the Auburn game?

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

Kentucky+3.5 1/2u LOSS
Kentucky+150 1/2u LOSS
RUTGERS -3 1u
ILLINOIS -2.5 1u
PURDUE+7 1/2u
PURDUE+230 1/2u
Arizona St -8.5 1u
Utah+14 1u

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

Three winners for you. Yeah I am new here so I figure I give you a gift.

Wisc +2.5 5 units
Cin +4 5 units
Kan +3 5 units
<u>Remember play with your head and not over it!!!</u> Remember play with your head and not over it!!!

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

[ QUOTE ]
Naj- Do you have Dr Bob's writeup for the Auburn game?

[/ QUOTE ]

Strong Opinion
AUBURN (-7.5) 28 Vanderbilt 14
09:30 AM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Auburn is coming off a huge upset win over Florida and you might think that the Tigers would be due for a letdown. That’s what I thought might be the case too until I looked up how home favorites perform after winning straight up as a double road underdog. As it turns out teams in that situation are good bets and Auburn applies to a 36-6 ATS subset of a situation based on the premise. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, is playing their first road game after 4 home games and the Commodores apply to a negative 23-57-3 ATS situation that plays against road teams after playing 4 or more consecutive home games. Auburn has struggled offensively this season so far (4.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) but quarterback Brandon Cox has proven the last two years that he’s certainly capable of playing better. Vanderbilt does have a solid defense but the Commodores’ offense has been 0.5 yppl worse than average this season (0.2 yppl worse than average with Chris Nickson under center) and Auburn’s defense has allowed just 4.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive unit. The loss of DE Quentin Groves is worth 1.5 points based on my analysis but my math model still favors Auburn by 10 points and the situation is favorable. The only negative is Vanderbilt’s 11-2 ATS mark as a road underdog the previous 3 seasons, but I’ll consider Auburn a Strong Opinion at -9 points or less and I’d take Auburn in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

What do people know about Kansas? I'm not too familiar with them but I'm kind of surprised this line isn't closer to a touchdown in favor of K State. Seems Mark Mangino never wins the big game.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

Carl- thanks!

This validates my hunch that teams don't suffer a letdown in home games after big road wins.

[ QUOTE ]
Auburn is coming off a huge upset win over Florida and you might think that the Tigers would be due for a letdown. That’s what I thought might be the case too until I looked up how home favorites perform after winning straight up as a double road underdog. As it turns out teams in that situation are good bets and Auburn applies to a 36-6 ATS subset of a situation based on the premise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do find it interesting that Dr. Bob did not mention the return of Auburn's starting tailback Brad Lester. He had 17 TDs the last two years as Irons's backup and hasn't played this year b/c of suspension. He may not get a ton of carries, but it's certainly worth noting.

On a side note, Q Groves has been running and was actually listed as "doubtful" for this game by some Auburn insiders yesterday. It looks like he won't play, but it's great news for a guy who needs 1 sack for the school record and could have gone pro, but returned for his senior year. He was on crutches at the end of the Florida game.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

What does everyone think of OSU +6.5 @ ATM? Seems like a good match up for OSU to me.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

My picks:

NC +7.5
CIN +3.5, -105
TUL +7
WYO -3
GA -1
EMU +30
AUB -8
UCF -3.5
ALA -11
MIA-O +9.5
FSU -17.5
UTA +15

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

[ QUOTE ]
What does everyone think of OSU +6.5 @ ATM? Seems like a good match up for OSU to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

OkSt @ Troy was a debacle, even worse than ATM @ Miami. I like ATM at home. Both teams had their coaches give emotional "I only care about my players" speeches recently, but coach Fran's was only a couple of days ago. I anticipate a Foxhole effort from the Aggies this week. Fran has always been good at pulling the troops together. I'm not playing the line as it has gotten out of hand, but still not enough to take OkSt IMO.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

I am kinda surprised that Kansas isn't the favorite. Must be that HFA that has this line messed up.




[ QUOTE ]
What do people know about Kansas? I'm not too familiar with them but I'm kind of surprised this line isn't closer to a touchdown in favor of K State. Seems Mark Mangino never wins the big game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

Jump on that -6.5 before it goes down.


[ QUOTE ]
What does everyone think of OSU +6.5 @ ATM? Seems like a good match up for OSU to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

got a copy Coach Frans notes. look on the bottom line where it says Ok St covers this baby.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What does everyone think of OSU +6.5 @ ATM? Seems like a good match up for OSU to me.

[/ QUOTE ]Jump on that -6.5 before it goes down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not even sure what you are trying to say here, but thanks.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

Austiger what have you heard about Colt not starting or playing this week or have you heard anything about it. I heard Freshman QB will be starting for the horns.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

[ QUOTE ]
got a copy Coach Frans notes. look on the bottom line where it says Ok St covers this baby.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh ok, you meant jump on the +6.5. Gotcha.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

Sorry +6.5 not the -6.5.


[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What does everyone think of OSU +6.5 @ ATM? Seems like a good match up for OSU to me.

[/ QUOTE ]Jump on that -6.5 before it goes down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not even sure what you are trying to say here, but thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

Who are the good cappers here?

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

[ QUOTE ]
Austiger what have you heard about Colt not starting or playing this week or have you heard anything about it. I heard Freshman QB will be starting for the horns.

[/ QUOTE ]

Childs has been getting a lot of work in practice this week, but no decision has been made I don't believe. Texas has lost 3 straight conference games and Colt has not finished the game in any of them.

Texas sure isn't getting any respect on the big board. Oklahoma and LSU both opened around -9.5. LSU has fallen to -7 and OU is up to -12, this despite LSU being #1 and Florida looking overrated two straight weeks, Oklahoma losing last week, plus LSU playing Sat. night in Death Valley and OU playing on a neutral field. Pretty crazy. I'm steering way clear of the Texas game now.

Edit- My UT coworker says that Colt is starting. I hadn't heard that.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

[ QUOTE ]
all 1u
Rutgers -3
Kentucky +4 loss
Penn St. -7
Fla +10
UNC +8.5
Utah +15
Kent u57.7/-105 loss
CFB ytd 26-18-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, +10.4u using all dime lines unless otherwise specified.
Nice early line grabs on PSU, RU, Fla and UNC, UK was looking good until Dr Bob moved it to 5, still not many games end on 5.

[/ QUOTE ]

26-20-1, +8.25u YTD ATS. Freaky luck to go over, but it happens.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

[ QUOTE ]
Rather than picking an entire year to tank, wouldn't Dr. Bob be better off just picking the wrong side on a couple games each week ...

Even if the subscriber fees are negligible (which I really doubt that they are),

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I think I indicated that in a later post.

Fees: $195 to start, up to $725 for a full college season = negligible.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

You have no idea how many subscribers he has though. If he has 10,000 subscribers and loses 3,000 of them, then that would be a pretty huge effect. Obviously, if he only has 100 subscribers and loses 15 or so, it's less than he could make betting.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

Most touts give 1/2 there players one side and 1/2 there players another side so that they always have 50% winner and 50% losers. The winners come back becuase they win and the losers come back because they need to win.

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

[ QUOTE ]
Most touts give 1/2 there players one side and 1/2 there players another side so that they always have 50% winner and 50% losers. The winners come back becuase they win and the losers come back because they need to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that you, Brandon Lang?

Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Rather than picking an entire year to tank, wouldn't Dr. Bob be better off just picking the wrong side on a couple games each week ...

Even if the subscriber fees are negligible (which I really doubt that they are),

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I think I indicated that in a later post.

Fees: $195 to start, up to $725 for a full college season = negligible.

[/ QUOTE ]

He sure has jacked his prices up from back when me and a few buddies bought his picks several years ago (last time was in 2001 I think). Back then it was like $20/week, or like $250 for the whole season.

I wonder how many people currently subscribe to his service. 10K subscribers for the full cfb season == 7.25 million. That doesn't include all of the other sports he caps and sells. That's a lot of jack.