stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

In 300 hands Villain is 33% VPIP, 9.3% Pf raise, AF 2.00.

I don't really have any notes on him. If this pot wasn't so huge, i guess i could just fold. But given that he's obviously not a great player, he could be overplaying TT or JJ, or maybe AQ i guess. If i just felt this, isn't that a really weak play?

On the turn, I figured the K was actually a good card because it's less likely he has a king, so at that point i'm just calling down and hoping to see JJ.

Anyway what do you think of my line here?

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (13 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

I am with you preflop and on the flop.

You check/raised the flop so checking the turn is awkward. I lead out and b/f the turn. If you get called on the turn I would check/call because the pot is large and I am behind most of villains range at this point. The only worse hands that will call if I bet is JJ or TT.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

IF you have no notes on him and only those stats for a read, what obviously makes him not a good player ? Only thing I see wrong with his stats is that he his vpip is slightly high. Someone who has really good postflop play will be able to get away with a higher vpip.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

Your getting taken to value town on the turn and river by check/calling both streets.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

intersting hand.
at flop you have about 40 equity vs PFR

Board: Kd 7d 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.824% 59.50% 01.33% 21205 472.50 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.176% 37.85% 01.33% 13490 472.50 { QcQh }

Also you beat only JJ and less probably TT or AQs.
I also dont see many hands at limper range that we need protect our hand vs him (A7s, A5s - any suited diamonds will call anyway) even that pot is large.

Also what you do if PFR will 3bet flop?
You dont have enought impied odds to catch your 1.5-2 outs to set QQQ and I dont like raise/fold line.

I think I would just call down.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

I could be way off, but after a CR on the flop, and when the 2nd K hits and you feel this is good for you, shouldn't you be leading the Turn?

I think has has AA or AK - maybe even KQs (not sure of how high 9.3% PFR really is) more often here than JJ.

EDIT - after thinking about his AF some more (2 is pretty high, yes?) - wouldn't he 3bet AK or AA on that flop? Maybe something like JJ is not that out of the question, the more I think about it. Hmm, confusing.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

Being OOP I grit my teeth curse my luck and bet/fold all three streets.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Only thing I see wrong with his stats is that he his vpip is slightly high. Someone who has really good postflop play will be able to get away with a higher vpip.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Slightly" high? 33% basically means that he's playing Ax, mid unsuited connectors and suited one gappers from any postition. That's not slightly loose, that's speewing money.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

Grunch:

After CO caps Preflop, I put his range as QQ+, JTs+,AQ+, AJs+,KQo. I put UTG+2 range is 20% less prem hands so we have 45% equity.

Flop: As everyone advocates here, we C/R and fold out UTG+2 and CO just calls which is a good sign so far. Our equite dropped to 36% but given the fact that Villain has not raised us yet is a good sign.

Turn: That K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is good for us and our equity jumps to 46% against Villain's range. Our choice is to b/f or c/c. In real life I would c/c to SD but am trying to get my W$SD number to improve and this is probably a leak.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

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after thinking about his AF some more (2 is pretty high, yes?) - wouldn't he 3bet AK or AA on that flop? Maybe something like JJ is not that out of the question, the more I think about it. Hmm, confusing.

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He might three bet the flop or he might for the turn to raise for value. This is why I think it is crucial to lead the turn here. On the turn he is going to call down with TT-AA (I am ignoring the possibility of KK), and he is going to raise AK, KQ. We define his range pretty well with our turn lead against non-tricky players.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

I' not sure I lke the flop play. Feel like UTG+2 will fold all hands for one as he will fold for two, unless he is very brave. Giving your lack of reads I prefer your passive line and c/c.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

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Your getting taken to value town on the turn and river by check/calling both streets.

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True, but if villain makes a FSD raise with JJ-TT or something other weird we can lose the pot. Villain has aggro stat (especially given how loosely he plays pf) and pot is huge. Better take the safe line IMO.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Only thing I see wrong with his stats is that he his vpip is slightly high. Someone who has really good postflop play will be able to get away with a higher vpip.

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"Slightly" high? 33% basically means that he's playing Ax, mid unsuited connectors and suited one gappers from any postition. That's not slightly loose, that's speewing money.

[/ QUOTE ]
What is your vpip and what do you think it should be between ?

If you had to classify VPIP in 4 ranges of Too tight, Tight (where you want to be), Slightly loose, and loose what would those ranges be ?


This player looks like a 6-max player playing in full ring.
I see players like this all the time who are competent postflop and loose preflop. I'm not saying a high vpip is something you should strive for. I'm just saying that this VPIP alone isn't an indicator of whether he is a good player post flop and you shouldn't be making that "read" from his stats.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

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I figured the K was actually a good card because it's less likely he has a king, so at that point i'm just calling down and hoping to see JJ.

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Wha? Bu? Wai? Uh? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I'm sure I'll read this down in the thread, but a) the flop c/r isn't terrible, but is probably pointless (UTG+2 is folding anything that he'll fold whether he's looking at 1 or 2 bets) and will cost you $$ against an aggro with TPTK; b) having c/r'd the flop, you need to lead pretty much 100% of turn cards. If you think a player is playing back at you on boards like this you can go for the double c/r with hands like QQ/JJ, but only if you also do it with AA and AK.

Also, you need to cut off the action somewhere in this hand. Villan's line = AA/AK/KQ a LOT, and calling down after the flop c/r is just spewing chips into his pocket.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

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This player looks like a 6-max player playing in full ring.

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Exactly, and that's why he's speewing money. Using a 6-max strategy to play FR is not a very good idea.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

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[ QUOTE ]
This player looks like a 6-max player playing in full ring.

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Exactly, and that's why he's speewing money. Using a 6-max strategy to play FR is not a very good idea.

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Uh, minor nitpick.
6max is FR with first 3-4 people folding. It's more HU pots, which is where the perceived difference comes. But using a "6-max strategy" when the first 3-4 people fold is a very good idea.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

Preflop looks good. I'd consider just calling the flop. You're ahead of 6 combos of JJ. You're behind 12 combos of AK, 6 combos of AA, and 3 combos of KK. There's only one combo of QQ remaining for the chop. This means you're behind far more often than you're ahead.

As played, you have to lead the turn after villain peels the flop.

EDIT: Just noticed in your read that you said he could be capping with TT. Okay, then there are also 6 combos of TT that you beat. But still a lot more hands that you lose to. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

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having c/r'd the flop, you need to lead pretty much 100% of turn cards.

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Agaisnt which hands is leading a good play? B/f is dangerous vs an aggro player in a big pot.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

Do you really think that 2.0 is aggro for a guy seeing the flop at this rate?

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

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having c/r'd the flop, you need to lead pretty much 100% of turn cards.

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Agaisnt which hands is leading a good play?

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all of the hands against which you c/r the flop.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

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having c/r'd the flop, you need to lead pretty much 100% of turn cards.

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Agaisnt which hands is leading a good play?

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all of the hands against which you c/r the flop.

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What he said.

From Hermann:

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Do you really think that 2.0 is aggro for a guy seeing the flop at this rate?

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It's pretty aggressive, but it could also indicate a fit-or-fold style. I agree with Bella (I think it was) that said that these stats look like a 6max player that's taking a session at full ring. It could also be a NL player trying out limit.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

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all of the hands against which you c/r the flop.

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Not true since we are b/f. If he bluff raise it's a disaster for us. I am not a big fan of the flop CR (since UTG should fold the same hands for one and two bets), but it's reasonable if villain can hold JJ-TT since we force out UTG (if he is somewhat loose). But the value of leading vs those hands on the turn is not clear if he bluffraises sometimes, or if he folds them.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

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Do you really think that 2.0 is aggro for a guy seeing the flop at this rate?

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Higher VPIP =&gt; weaker hands pf =&gt; 'AF is higher than it seems'

So, yes I think 2.0 is pretty aggro.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

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all of the hands against which you c/r the flop.

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Not true since we are b/f. If he bluff raise it's a disaster for us. I am not a big fan of the flop CR (since UTG should fold the same hands for one and two bets), but it's reasonable if villain can hold JJ-TT since we force out UTG (if he is somewhat loose). But the value of leading vs those hands on the turn is not clear if he bluffraises sometimes, or if he folds them.

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Why do you think he's going to bluffraise? Because he bet when we checked to him?

You quoted some conventional wisdom regarding aggression factors; here's some more:

"They aren't bluffing you anywhere near as much as you think they are."

I would actually call it far more likely that he'd call down with AK, fearing we'd fold to a raise, than bluff raise.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

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Why do you think he's going to bluffraise? Because he bet when we checked to him?


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Why take the risk?

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

The check raise is close, but might be worthwhile to get UTG2 out if he has the ace of diamonds when he has just about got the odds to call one bet but not two.
If you raise the flop, the decision whether to fire again on the turn is interesting. I think that villain's stats are pretty aggro and he might be capable of a bluff raise on the turn. On the other hand, I think that he might cap with just about any pair pre-flop so there could be value in betting if he is going to call down. It would be useful to know his WSD stats. On balance I don't like bet/folding against this guy, so check calling to SD seems reasonable.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

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Why do you think he's going to bluffraise? Because he bet when we checked to him?


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Why take the risk?

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[img]http://groups.msn.com/_Secure/0NQAAABATAftoGdJSJA2R3gWvlFG6JuCwWbhlXpyRYDnV*QZg! XgvQ2op9hcMEQkMW4qDNNKPUPghRHzPbw*ZMw/krab.jpg[/img]

"Hi, I'm Eugene Krabs, and I LOVE money."

And, srsly, you know the answer, Sushi. You take a chance at folding to an extremely rare bluff-raise because AJ isn't going to call one on the river when it misses; because you don't want to let AJ see the river for free; because you have no reason to believe that he's going to bluff-checkraise, for Shania's sake!

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think that 2.0 is aggro for a guy seeing the flop at this rate?

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Higher VPIP =&gt; weaker hands pf =&gt; 'AF is higher than it seems'

So, yes I think 2.0 is pretty aggro.

[/ QUOTE ]
As you may suspect, the reason I'm asking is that I'm wondering about my aggression; this month my TAF has been 2.73 on a VP$IP of 14.25...and that's coming down a little.

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

The reason i check raised the flop is am i check folding in a capped multiway pot to 1 bet there? That seems incredibly weak. Yeah i might be beat, but i would at least call there just so next time ppl don't try to steal with nothing.

And i believe that the other players will call with MANY more hands for 1 bet than 2 bets. This is 1/2. I would expect any donk with ax, any pp, any pair on the flop to call this for 1 more bet. If i'm calling down anyway, i would rather CR, get it heads up, and lose 1 more bet than risk letting someone overcall with a2 or a7 or something.

Also if one of the limpers calls 2 cold, or 3 bets, then i'm done with the hand because there is 0 chance i beat both of them.

But to the ppl who are saying CR is a bad idea, you are advocating folding to 1 bet in a 13 bet pot for 1 bet there? I just want to understand this?

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

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But to the ppl who are saying CR is a bad idea, you are advocating folding to 1 bet in a 13 bet pot for 1 bet there? I just want to understand this?

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They are not advocating folding, they are advocating simply calling down, there’s a HUGE difference.

Basic idea is that UTG+2 is likely going to fold to 1 bet as well as he would to 2 bets. He’s only calling preflop, so he’s probably on an implied odds hand. Two guys raising and capping and a K flopping means that, unless he’s on the flush draw or he made a set, he’s drawing dead…
If he made a flush draw, he’s not folding to anything, if he made a set (or two-pair), he’s going to stick with us no matter what. Everything else he’ll fold for 1 bet…

And since we’re either slightly ahead or WAY behind, we don’t want to invest too much into this pot. Hence calling…

Re: stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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Why do you think he's going to bluffraise? Because he bet when we checked to him?


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Why take the risk?

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]http://groups.msn.com/_Secure/0NQAAABATAftoGdJSJA2R3gWvlFG6JuCwWbhlXpyRYDnV*QZg! XgvQ2op9hcMEQkMW4qDNNKPUPghRHzPbw*ZMw/krab.jpg[/img]

"Hi, I'm Eugene Krabs, and I LOVE money."

And, srsly, you know the answer, Sushi. You take a chance at folding to an extremely rare bluff-raise because AJ isn't going to call one on the river when it misses; because you don't want to let AJ see the river for free; because you have no reason to believe that he's going to bluff-checkraise, for Shania's sake!

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] good one Boz! I surrender to Eugene Krabs.