200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

I have no reads on villain, as I don't even have 25 hands on him yet. On the river the pot size is 186.50 and it's 68.50 for me to call, so I'm getting just under 3:1 to call. I can't beat anything on the river, so how often do I have to believe villain will bluff this river in order for me to profitably call?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 9 Players - (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

SB: $279.20
BB: $139.95
UTG: $101.85
UTG+1: $144.85
MP1: $166.00
MP2: $207.85
MP3: $125.50
Hero (CO): $267.40
BTN: $386.10

Preflop: Hero is dealt Jh Qh (9 Players)
4 folds, MP3 calls $2.00, Hero calls $2.00, BTN calls $2.00, SB folds, BB checks

Flop: ($9) Js 4c Qs (4 Players)
BB checks, MP3 bets $6.00, Hero raises to $18.00, 2 folds, MP3 calls $12.00

Turn: ($45) Th (2 Players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $37.00, MP3 calls $37.00

River: ($119) As (2 Players)
MP3 bets all-in for $68.50, Hero ???

Re: 200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

No.

Re: 200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

no

Re: 200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

What an aweful spot. The board is so draw heavy that you can't push the turn, and the river probably just made you sick since that 3rd spade didn't scare villain. I think you have to fold and take notes that this guy has no clue as to what pot odds are. As played, fold the river and exploit the weakness on another hand...it's bound to come up again.

AC

Re: 200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

I put him on KQ here. I think this is a clear fold. He has a straight, flush or better 2 pair here IMO.

Re: 200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

Yeah, i hate 2p hands. That's why I'd raise more on the flop and then go into pot control.

Re: 200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

call!

Re: 200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
call!

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously?

Re: 200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

easy fold

Re: 200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

I think I'm supposed to call if I believe villain is bluffing x times/10. However, I don't know what that number is based upon getting laid 3:1 on the river. That was my real question, I know 9/10 I should fold this hand, which I did.

Re: 200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

Stupid River. Fold.

Re: 200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'm supposed to call if I believe villain is bluffing x times/10. However, I don't know what that number is based upon getting laid 3:1 on the river. That was my real question, I know 9/10 I should fold this hand, which I did.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really think there is anytime you call this. A4 even beats you now, you are thoroughly dominated more than 9/10 times.

Re: 200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

No

Re: 200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

easy fold

Re: 200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

No one has mentioned pre-flop yet?

Raise pre-flop!

Oh, and easiest river fold ever.

Re: 200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

villian can have AQ or KQ which you cant beat. he could also made a street or had the set, so easy fold

Re: 200 NL - Would you make this river call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'm supposed to call if I believe villain is bluffing x times/10. However, I don't know what that number is based upon getting laid 3:1 on the river. That was my real question

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, that´s pretty easy. It´s only your potential call that can still go into the pot. So it goes like

Money.of.your.call / (Current.Pot + Money.of.your.call)

When it´s like 0.268 then you have to multiply by 100 to put that "%" behind it. So e.g. 0,11 is 11%.

That means in this hand you need to be good >=27% of the time. (Certainly not.)

Another way to do the maths takes the pot odds numbers. When it´s like y:x against you, then it is

x / y+x

which is 25% here, as your 3:1 is a rough estimation.

Hope I was helpfull (and didn´t make any mistakes, I´m a bit in a hurry).
Also hope I got a kind of notation that can be understood. I´m German and I´m not actually sure wether or not equations are to put down in the same style in English.