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going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
on the money bubble of the full tilt 150. this guy has already called my raises 2x from LP and insta folded to bets on the flop both times.
river action made me want to crawl up in a ball and die. thoughts? Full Tilt Poker Game #1851138772: $20,000 Guarantee (13581681), Table 21 - 300/600 Ante 75 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:12:34 ET - 2007/02/22 Seat 1: Michael1123 (17,611) Seat 2: Cam26 (12,252) Seat 3: eggtart (22,878) Seat 4: Mcknight99 (6,900) Seat 6: gboro780 (42,406) Seat 7: peenuthut (10,885) Seat 9: UCanSMD (22,033) Michael1123 antes 75 Cam26 antes 75 eggtart antes 75 Mcknight99 antes 75 gboro780 antes 75 peenuthut antes 75 UCanSMD antes 75 Michael1123 posts the small blind of 300 Cam26 posts the big blind of 600 The button is in seat #9 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to gboro780 [Qd Th] eggtart folds Mcknight99 folds gboro780 raises to 1,800 peenuthut folds UCanSMD calls 1,800 Michael1123 folds Cam26 folds *** FLOP *** [8c Kh 8d] gboro780 bets 3,000 UCanSMD calls 3,000 *** TURN *** [8c Kh 8d] [9s] gboro780 has 15 seconds left to act gboro780 checks UCanSMD checks *** RIVER *** [8c Kh 8d 9s] [Jh] gboro780 bets 8,000 UCanSMD raises to 17,158, and is all in |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament Blinds: t300/t600 (Ante: t75) 7 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: t22878 UTG+1: t6900 Hero: t42406 CO: t10885 Button: t22033 SB: t17611 BB: t12252 Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t1800</font>, CO folds, Button calls t1800 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t3225)</font>, 2 folds. Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t5025, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets t3000</font>, Button calls t3000 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t8025)</font>. Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t11025, 2 players) Hero checks, Button checks. River: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t11025, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets t8000</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises all-in t17158</font>. Uncalled bets: t9158 returned to Button. Results: Final pot: t36183 |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
I think you have to call this. Your line is c-bet, check, stab so I think he can be value pushing a worse hand often enough that with a pot this big, you should call.
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Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
um..lol
easiest call ever |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
Also, if you think his flop call is suspicious, then cc river maybe best.
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Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
my bad on the hand converter registrar.
my first thought was that i just can't fold with the size of the pot. but there's like 0.0 chance of a bluff here and i basically have to pray he has an unlikely A8 or T8s type hand or or a weird played AA or something. i also think he would call the river not shove with a naked king. i just get upset with myself when i look people up knowing i'm beat and this is one of those spots. is anyone folding here ever ? |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
I imagine it felt bad when he made that reraise but theres no way you can get away from it. If hes got the FH so be it - you were unlucky the way the cards came. Realistically though, theres alot of hands he could make that push with that you have beat.
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Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
This is a really tough spot. I think you need to all hoping he either slowplayed 8x or has something stupid like AA or AK. I feel like your behind a lot here but your getting pretty good odds.
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Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
[ QUOTE ]
my bad on the hand converter registrar. my first thought was that i just can't fold with the size of the pot. but there's like 0.0 chance of a bluff here and i basically have to pray he has KQ or a weird played AA or something. i just get upset with myself when i look people up knowing i'm beat and this is one of those spots. is anyone folding here ever ? [/ QUOTE ] I think the weirdly played AKs, KQs, KJs, 78s added to 'man up' factor, added to the fact that your line can easily be interpreted not just as you've rivered a boat or even more weirdly a straight. I think it's not clear enough to villain that he's not pushing for value here with enough hands that you beat. If you're happy folding, I personally think that's fine but, for the reasons given, I think calling is fairly substantially +EV. |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
C/C >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> Bet/Fold
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Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
This is a [censored] spot. I don't know what the timebank is on FTP, but I probably databse the guy, see he's won nothing and call because AK is the nuts, you don't have a king and he's tricked you into betting the river by checking behind on the turn. I think it's easier to fold with a flush here.
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Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
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Also, if you think his flop call is suspicious, then cc river maybe best. [/ QUOTE ] This is what I was thinking |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
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um..lol easiest call ever [/ QUOTE ] Columbo, you're wrong. The fact that you're "lol"ing @ gboro makes me think you're a joke @ the tables and pisses me off. |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
check call is awful...if you check it's to cr all in which is probably a lot worse than just betting because no one value bets or bluffs enough. Call now even though you're beat pretty often.
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Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
Value Raising Range: 8x/88/99/JJ/KK; Possibly AK/KQ/KJ/AA
How often is he bluffing? Pretty much never. Ok, so how many 8x hands are in his range? Well, you beat 87/86/85/8T/8A. I think a lot of players will fold all of those hands to a raise, so I would say the 8x hands should be heavily discounted from his range. How likely is he to be overvaluing AK/KQ/KJ/AA? I don't think it's very likely that he's shoving w/ 1 pair of kings, that's a pretty bad play that I don't think a lot of players will do, so unless you have a read that he's terrible and/or overplays hands, I would discount these hands from his range as well. His line fits 88/99/JJ pretty well, KK is somewhat less likely because of the flatcall preflop. You're getting ~4 to 1. So does he show up w/ a worse hand 20% of the time? I don't think he does. |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
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C/C >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> Bet/Fold [/ QUOTE ] lol no |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
Bet/fold is probably right, but I doubt I can do it.
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Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
I think you have to call here getting huge odds. You are well behind his range though.
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Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
He's going to show you A8 or the like more than a boat IMO. Easy call.
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Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
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[ QUOTE ] C/C >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> Bet/Fold [/ QUOTE ] lol no [/ QUOTE ] |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
I would have to call here, the F/H possibility is scary, but I can see this move being made with less then that, and you've got the right odds to call.
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Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
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Bet/fold is probably right, but I doubt I can do it. [/ QUOTE ] even I can't do it |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
It's a call as played.
I also think you're going to see A8 or AK a lot more than FHs. but maybe it'd be better to make a smaller river bet so you can get away from it if you need to. maybe 1/2 pot of 4k or 5k? |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
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C/C >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> Bet/Fold [/ QUOTE ] disagreeeee u lose a lot of valueeeee |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
u cant fold, pray and call obv.
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Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
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Bet/fold is probably right, but I doubt I can do it. [/ QUOTE ] |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
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Value Raising Range: 8x/88/99/JJ/KK; Possibly AK/KQ/KJ/AA How often is he bluffing? Pretty much never. Ok, so how many 8x hands are in his range? Well, you beat 87/86/85/8T/8A. I think a lot of players will fold all of those hands to a raise, so I would say the 8x hands should be heavily discounted from his range. How likely is he to be overvaluing AK/KQ/KJ/AA? I don't think it's very likely that he's shoving w/ 1 pair of kings, that's a pretty bad play that I don't think a lot of players will do, so unless you have a read that he's terrible and/or overplays hands, I would discount these hands from his range as well. His line fits 88/99/JJ pretty well, KK is somewhat less likely because of the flatcall preflop. You're getting ~4 to 1. So does he show up w/ a worse hand 20% of the time? I don't think he does. [/ QUOTE ] Nice post. I think villains do show up with a worse hand 20%+ of the time and I think that villains have some of the hands that you discounted. If hero folded this, I would guess he feels that this villain does not and that seems reasonable to me. Villain has called off 10% of his stack pre-flop and then called a one thing or the other flop when he hasn't before, so he has something. However, the reason why I think, that even for this villain, we really have to call is because while villain may have to bad to value push a naked king on this board, I think that's fairly common 'bad' (no idea about FTP). If villain has AK, and he's trapping the lag by calling OTB and see's this flop, all that's in his mind is setting this trap. He calls on the flop, because there is no value raising, checks behind on turn because he wants hero to bet the river and when hero does bet, he pushes. |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
EVG,
Our line looks crazy weak so we get money from all kinds of crap that checks behind if we bet. |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
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EVG, Our line looks crazy weak so we get money from all kinds of crap that checks behind if we bet. [/ QUOTE ] Obviously, checking the river is not optimal under normal circumstances but if hero has been c-betting villain off pots, has shown down weakish hands elsewhere etc. etc. to the extent that he feels that he's check folding anything other than a runnered straight here and folds a runnered straight to a push, then check call may be better than bet/ fold. Personally, I wouldn't think this deeply about it. If I've put villain on K or better after the flop, then I just get it in with my straight and berate myself for being a dumb mf. But I think that if we can really consider bet/folding a pot this large, we should at least consider check-calling. And I diagree that villain checks behind very often on the river with anything he's gone this far with very often. I probably check-raise though if I take this line so I'm toast either way. |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
Gboro i disagree that he might never value shove a K or a two pair type hand like KJ, though a more specific read might be more helpful in eliminating some of his range.
The line you've taken is a fairly stereotypical aggressive player "cont betting flop, giving up on turn checking, then after villain checks behind give one more round cause he looks weak." I think you definately have a call here, and i think you definately need to fire this river because you'll often get calls from a fairly wide range of hands that would check behind on this river if you check. |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
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[ QUOTE ] Bet/fold is probably right, but I doubt I can do it. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] On the other hand, he probably has KJ/AA/AK just often enough to make a call ok. At least you still have chips! |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
I think villian shows down less than FH a significant % of the time. I would call his shove since our line could seem a little weak to him and our river bet might be read as a steal attempt with a 2nd best hand.
The final deciding factor for me is that if I call and lose I still have an average size stack. If I win, I am the monster stack. |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
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I think villian shows down less than FH a significant % of the time. I would call his shove since our line could seem a little weak to him and our river bet might be read as a steal attempt with a 2nd best hand. [/ QUOTE ] Then he would call with mediocre holdings. |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
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[ QUOTE ] I think villian shows down less than FH a significant % of the time. I would call his shove since our line could seem a little weak to him and our river bet might be read as a steal attempt with a 2nd best hand. [/ QUOTE ] Then he would call with mediocre holdings. [/ QUOTE ] The problem for hero is that villain's going to see a lot of weaker holdings as very strong after this action, on that board, against (presumably) this hero. |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
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I think villian shows down less than FH a significant % of the time. I would call his shove since our line could seem a little weak to him and our river bet might be read as a steal attempt with a 2nd best hand. The final deciding factor for me is that if I call and lose I still have an average size stack. If I win, I am the monster stack. [/ QUOTE ] Agreed. |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
Full Tilt Poker Game #1851138772: $20,000 Guarantee (13581681), Table 21 - 300/600 Ante 75 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:12:34 ET - 2007/02/22 Seat 1: Michael1123 (17,611) Seat 2: Cam26 (12,252) Seat 3: eggtart (22,878) Seat 4: Mcknight99 (6,900) Seat 6: gboro780 (42,406) Seat 7: peenuthut (10,885) Seat 9: UCanSMD (22,033) Michael1123 antes 75 Cam26 antes 75 eggtart antes 75 Mcknight99 antes 75 gboro780 antes 75 peenuthut antes 75 UCanSMD antes 75 Michael1123 posts the small blind of 300 Cam26 posts the big blind of 600 The button is in seat #9 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to gboro780 [Qd Th] eggtart folds Mcknight99 folds gboro780 raises to 1,800 peenuthut folds UCanSMD calls 1,800 Michael1123 folds Cam26 folds *** FLOP *** [8c Kh 8d] gboro780 bets 3,000 UCanSMD calls 3,000 *** TURN *** [8c Kh 8d] [9s] gboro780 has 15 seconds left to act gboro780 checks UCanSMD checks *** RIVER *** [8c Kh 8d 9s] [Jh] gboro780 bets 8,000 gboro780 has 15 seconds left to act UCanSMD raises to 17,158, and is all in gboro780 calls 9,158 *** SHOW DOWN *** UCanSMD shows [Kd Ks] (a full house, Kings full of Eights) gboro780 mucks UCanSMD wins the pot (45,341) with a full house, Kings full of Eights *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 45,341 | Rake 0 Board: [8c Kh 8d 9s Jh] Seat 1: Michael1123 (small blind) folded before the Flop Seat 2: Cam26 (big blind) folded before the Flop Seat 3: eggtart folded before the Flop Seat 4: Mcknight99 folded before the Flop Seat 6: gboro780 mucked [Qd Th] - a straight, King high Seat 7: peenuthut folded before the Flop Seat 9: UCanSMD (button) showed [Kd Ks] and won (45,341) with a full house, Kings full of Eights |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
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*** SHOW DOWN *** UCanSMD shows [Kd Ks] (a full house, Kings full of Eights) [/ QUOTE ] I think you tip your hat and give him credit for a very nice slow play. Really all set up by his preflop smooth call. Nothing wrong with your line, just a cooler IMO. |
Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
yeah, that sucks you had to hit your J on the river, but your play here will show a +EV long term, even if the short term results make you want to drop kick something
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