All regulation is doomed to fail
 

Let's face a simple truth. We're talking about Prohibition, again. It cannot work. It never has and never will. The govt cannot legislate morality. They cannot stop the flow of drugs into the US. They can't stop drug addicts from using drugs. They couldn't stop rumrunners and gin mills. And they can't stop people from online gambling, whether it's sportsbetting, poker or bingo.

Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line? Suddenly we're going to be taxed and regulated and everything will be as it was? Both of those sites have flourished since the UIGEA passed and Party and others turned tail and ran away.

If Party et al become regulated and the other sites aren't, but are more profitable for players, do you think the players won't go where they get a better deal? Example: Party has no rakeback. Full Tilt gives 30% rakeback. Where will people play?

As we remember, when sites started rakeback, there were many of us who stopped playing on Party, which didn't have rakeback for a long time. We made more money, even if there were many more fish at Party. There were enough fish at the sites that gave rakeback to more than offset the easier games. We played on Empire and the other sites which did, until Party gave rakeback and that ended the other sites. People will still make the determination of where they do better.

If there are regulations passed which will allow people to deposit legally, what makes anyone think they won't be able to use the same system, or another system, to deposit at the unregulated sites? Again, people will go where they get the biggest bang for their bucks, and does anyone think a regulated site will have more to offer than an unregulated? Will the regulated sites be allowed to advertise and the unregulated will not? No. Free speech. The unregulated sites will advertise the same.

Banks are insured by the FDIC. If some bank starts up that gives people 300% better interest-rate and a free toaster, how many people will say, "I'm not going there because they aren't a part of the FDIC"?

It's only a matter of time before this all goes away and it's back to business as usual. The WTO decision may hasten it, as the govt at some point is going to have to surrender, sooner or later. They can't stop people from doing what they want to do. Laws only work if people are willing to obey them.

Many of you aren't old enough to remember when the speed limit laws were lowered to 55 maximum. NOBODY drove 55. They bought crude radar detectors and it started a CB craze. 10-4, good buddy. Eventually, the govt gave up trying to enforce a law that no one obeyed. The same thing is going to happen here. It's just a matter of time.

What's even more likely to happen, eventually, is the end of all government as we know it. The Internet is what has allowed the global economy to work. It won't matter anymore where your bank is located, when you can move money around at the click of a mouse. It won't matter where something is made, or shipped or whether the company has a brick and mortar location, as the money comes out of your account in Switzerland for a product manufactured in Sri Lanka and shipped out of a warehouse in Papua by a company owned in Tai Pei. We won't care. It will be delivered to our door. It's already happening.

Online gambling is really the vanguard of changes going on in all areas of the economy. The government is helpless against the changes. They can't regulate if people aren't willing to go along. Eventually, it is going to break down all borders and traditional national identities. This is the first of many attempts at stopping the inevitable tide.

Don't worry so much. It's all going to work out in its own time. Spend time working on your game for the next boom. lol

Carry on. As you were.

CJ

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail
 

Funny meeting you here.

I am studying real hard and doing better than ever.

Thanks for the moral boost.

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail
 

I hope that you are right Cactus Jack.

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line?

[/ QUOTE ]

i've thought about this a lot. obv. the answer is no, so wtf, that's y i don't really follow the legislation anymore. nothing is going to change.

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail, but it can be a bitch meanwhile
 

"Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line? "

Based upon personal conversations with poker site owners, ANY site which could get a US license would do so.

....

"The government is helpless against the changes. They can't regulate if people aren't willing to go along."

Cactus, you really misunderstand politics and the public's social order.

Sadly, "People" are willing to "go along" with almost any regulation because they are willing to buy into fear of free markets.

I agree that Internet commerce is defintiely a cross-border phenomenon of common interests. However, you dismis too readily other social bonds and forces in your belief that commerce is all-powerful.

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail
 

Let me also add, there will be other currency systems which will further erode the governments' ability to tax and spend. We all trust the value of the dollar in low inflationary times, but if inflation reignites, there will be even more incentive to move into alternative currencies.

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail, but it can be a bitch meanwhile
 

[ QUOTE ]
"Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line? "

Based upon personal conversations with poker site owners, ANY site which could get a US license would do so.

....

"The government is helpless against the changes. They can't regulate if people aren't willing to go along."

Cactus, you really misunderstand politics and the public's social order.

Sadly, "People" are willing to "go along" with almost any regulation because they are willing to buy into fear of free markets.

I agree that Internet commerce is defintiely a cross-border phenomenon of common interests. However, you dismis too readily other social bonds and forces in your belief that commerce is all-powerful.

[/ QUOTE ]

While they may say they'll get a US license, what they actually do will be seen at a later date.

I agree with you, Milton, on the herd mentality and the fear of change, but I believe more in inevitable social evolution. Change happens whether we want it to or not. Just a couple of years ago, Internet shopping was considered a novelty. This year, it could make or break some companies who are prepared or not prepared for the Christmas shopping season.

It wasn't long ago that people had a very strong fear of computers. Now, they sell them like refrigerators. Those of us with computer knowledge are well aware they are still computers which don't work like a microwave or VCR.

The govt has never lead anything. The govt has always been behind every curve of change. The only way they can lead is by finding a parade and trying to get in front of it. Al Gore's claim of inventing the Internet is a great example. The parade was going strong by the time he got in front of it, too late, I might add, because by the time he said it everyone knew it was a joke.

I think there will be more sites, more options, more of everything by '09. Whether there will be another boom is a different question. People's attention spans are pretty short, and another pretty girl will walk by in a few seconds. I'm not worried at all whether I'll be able to play legally or not. I didn't drive 55, and I've been known to fire up a bowl on occasion. Like everyone else, it's up to me to decide which laws I'll support and am prepared to deal with the consequences of violating the law. Funny thing is, the lawmakers know it, while the general population doesn't. It's why the laws actually work.

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail
 

[ QUOTE ]
Let's face a simple truth. We're talking about Prohibition, again. It cannot work. It never has and never will. The govt cannot legislate morality. They cannot stop the flow of drugs into the US. They can't stop drug addicts from using drugs. They couldn't stop rumrunners and gin mills. And they can't stop people from online gambling, whether it's sportsbetting, poker or bingo.

[/ QUOTE ]

100% Agree, history has show prohibition an abject failure in generally and the UIGEA specifically.

[ QUOTE ]
do you think the players won't go where they get a better deal? Example: Party has no rakeback. Full Tilt gives 30% rakeback. Where will people play?

[/ QUOTE ]

A free market almost always rewards the best product. While it may not be the absolute best product in terms of value and utility, things like customer service and advertising come into play, but I'd almost 100% agree with those simple caveots.

[ QUOTE ]
As we remember, when sites started rakeback, there were many of us who stopped playing on Party, which didn't have rakeback for a long time. We made more money, even if there were many more fish at Party. There were enough fish at the sites that gave rakeback to more than offset the easier games. We played on Empire and the other sites which did, until Party gave rakeback and that ended the other sites. People will still make the determination of where they do better.

If there are regulations passed which will allow people to deposit legally, what makes anyone think they won't be able to use the same system, or another system, to deposit at the unregulated sites? Again, people will go where they get the biggest bang for their bucks, and does anyone think a regulated site will have more to offer than an unregulated? Will the regulated sites be allowed to advertise and the unregulated will not? No. Free speech. The unregulated sites will advertise the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where we part company in our mutual agrementfest.

UIGEA set the minimum bar for on-line transfers for US players. All those folks who have been spending hours deciding on the UIGEA regulations are going to be the "experts" when any changes to the UIGEA are proposed. Those Federal "moles" in their windowless offices have a vested interest in staying in the UIGEA game. Given that we are also likely looking at a change of administration between now and any passage, any new administration's appointee's are going to look to the history of the issue and the "on the shelf" work from their Agencies perspective.

If you think that any poker site that doesn't kow-tow to the new matrix call it IGREA or whatever will be able to easily take US deposits you don't know this small town called D.C. You really think they are going to repeal UIGEA with some sort of toothless regulations that allow any poker site to thumb their nose at the US?

[ QUOTE ]
Banks are insured by the FDIC. If some bank starts up that gives people 300% better interest-rate and a free toaster, how many people will say, "I'm not going there because they aren't a part of the FDIC"?

[/ QUOTE ]

You'd be amazed at the number of people who will not keep a dime more than $100k in a single FDIC bank or account. You couldn't comvince most of them to deposit more to even a FDIC insured account for a new car and a blow job, let alone a toaster......

[ QUOTE ]
It's only a matter of time before this all goes away and it's back to business as usual. The WTO decision may hasten it, as the govt at some point is going to have to surrender, sooner or later. They can't stop people from doing what they want to do. Laws only work if people are willing to obey them.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the laws like the simple regulatory matrix I've suggested provide protections and ease of deposit and withdraw, and give some sort of gaming stamp of aproval to the games people will come back out in droves. The fish will be lining up to jump into your lap.

[ QUOTE ]
Many of you aren't old enough to remember when the speed limit laws were lowered to 55 maximum. NOBODY drove 55. They bought crude radar detectors and it started a CB craze. 10-4, good buddy. Eventually, the govt gave up trying to enforce a law that no one obeyed. The same thing is going to happen here. It's just a matter of time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have it even worse than most. I learned to drive on the Italian Autostrada. When I got my D/L in the US, the speed limit was 70, which was stupid in my opinion. I barely had a chance to get used to 70 and they changed it to 55!!! In Italy we drove 55 in town on cobble stone streets in REVERSE! ( Well maybe not in reverse but it sure seemed like it. )

[ QUOTE ]
What's even more likely to happen, eventually, is the end of all government as we know it. The Internet is what has allowed the global economy to work. It won't matter anymore where your bank is located, when you can move money around at the click of a mouse. It won't matter where something is made, or shipped or whether the company has a brick and mortar location, as the money comes out of your account in Switzerland for a product manufactured in Sri Lanka and shipped out of a warehouse in Papua by a company owned in Tai Pei. We won't care. It will be delivered to our door. It's already happening.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to brag but I've moved a lot of money all over the world quick enought to profit from the difference between the bid and ask in two or three different marktes simultaniously. In those transactions you have the risk of being wrong or not quick enough with the added problem of a currency move that can wipe out a month's worth of work. There is a risk with any type of e-commerce poker or not.

But if you think the US poker market will ever grow at any reasonable rate, or that the fish out there are going to come out of the woodwork to play in any type of at best "quasi-legal" poker game, I think you are sorely mistaken.

[ QUOTE ]
Online gambling is really the vanguard of changes going on in all areas of the economy. The government is helpless against the changes. They can't regulate if people aren't willing to go along. Eventually, it is going to break down all borders and traditional national identities. This is the first of many attempts at stopping the inevitable tide.

Don't worry so much. It's all going to work out in its own time. Spend time working on your game for the next boom. lol

Carry on. As you were.

CJ

[/ QUOTE ]

Not once since Al Gore "invented" the internet has this utopian dream happened. Yes the internet has forced many changes on governments, some good some bad, mostly good IMPO. To think all of that governmental power is suddenly going to vanish is a "pipe" dream.

Just for Congress to get its greedy little hands on the uncollected taxes from poker alone means more regulation is inevitible IMPO. Every time Congress has identified a ready pool of money it thinks it can give to more votes than those that it would have to take it from, it has!

D$D

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail, but it can be a bitch meanwhile
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line? "

Based upon personal conversations with poker site owners, ANY site which could get a US license would do so.

....

"The government is helpless against the changes. They can't regulate if people aren't willing to go along."

Cactus, you really misunderstand politics and the public's social order.

Sadly, "People" are willing to "go along" with almost any regulation because they are willing to buy into fear of free markets.

I agree that Internet commerce is defintiely a cross-border phenomenon of common interests. However, you dismis too readily other social bonds and forces in your belief that commerce is all-powerful.

[/ QUOTE ]

While they may say they'll get a US license, what they actually do will be seen at a later date.

I agree with you, Milton, on the herd mentality and the fear of change, but I believe more in inevitable social evolution. Change happens whether we want it to or not. Just a couple of years ago, Internet shopping was considered a novelty. This year, it could make or break some companies who are prepared or not prepared for the Christmas shopping season.

It wasn't long ago that people had a very strong fear of computers. Now, they sell them like refrigerators. Those of us with computer knowledge are well aware they are still computers which don't work like a microwave or VCR.

The govt has never lead anything. The govt has always been behind every curve of change. The only way they can lead is by finding a parade and trying to get in front of it. Al Gore's claim of inventing the Internet is a great example. The parade was going strong by the time he got in front of it, too late, I might add, because by the time he said it everyone knew it was a joke.

I think there will be more sites, more options, more of everything by '09. Whether there will be another boom is a different question. People's attention spans are pretty short, and another pretty girl will walk by in a few seconds. I'm not worried at all whether I'll be able to play legally or not. I didn't drive 55, and I've been known to fire up a bowl on occasion. Like everyone else, it's up to me to decide which laws I'll support and am prepared to deal with the consequences of violating the law. Funny thing is, the lawmakers know it, while the general population doesn't. It's why the laws actually work.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you that poker will go on. As long as net neutrality is in place and no lawmaker gets some crusade on over the internet. A boom again or no, all depends on an easy way to fund. The affiliate system is in place, tv advertizing is even more ramped up, and word of mouth is as strong as ever. I think a forgeign bank is going to have to win a case vs the DoJ or something. Make it easy to set up foreign accounts for people, and introduce them to tax avoidance 101.

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail, but it can be a bitch meanwhile
 

I dont agree that ALL regulation of internet poker is doomed to fail, it truly depends on the extent of the regulation. A system not too different from the one in the UK (the tax part is not transferable to the US market) is probably where we are going, and as long as it allows open foreign competition, it should be a great thing for poker because it will bring back the fish with open legality and easy funding.

Of course, a heavy handed, overly bureaucratic, high tax, high licensing scheme is one legislative possibility. If THAT were to occur, I agree with you CJ, the majority would go elsewhere so long as they can still fund it.

Skallagrim

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail
 

Prohibition made alcohol difficult. expensive, and risky to obtain. Many people did stop drinking until it was repealed.

Prohibition DID NOT stop all consumption, possibly not even a majority of it.

Prohibition DID cause social havoc on an unprecedented scale which is why it was eventually repealed. That and the lost tax revenue.

The loss of online poker is unlikely to cause the sort of upheaval that prohibition did. But it will mobilize some folks, like us, to try to change things to be more favorable to us.

And, there is always the tax angle. The government will like the revenue from poker and poker does not have near the social cost of alcohol. (Despite what the idiots at FoF et al say)

My 2 cents worth.

Tuff

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail, but it can be a bitch meanwhile
 

D$D, most of us tend to think very short-term. "Suddenly disappear"? No. But neither you nor I can possibly forecast what's going to be in a hundred years. My grandfather is 96. When he was born, there wasn't the sound of airplanes filling the air, cars on highways and people on cell phones. He was in shortpants when he saw his first airplane, in his late thirties before he had a telephone. Heck, he was in his late twenties before he had a toilet that didn't require putting on shoes to get to. Could anyone have predicted the OUR age? And changes are going to come even faster, and more often.

The govt is going to have a helluva time regulating the Internet, and they are never going to be able to regulate personal behavior. Child porn is reprehensible, but they haven't been able to stop it on the Net, despite the huge amount of time and resources put into doing so, AND the fact that the majority of us want it stopped. Even we, the massive percentage of people who want child porn ended cannot make it happen.

There is the free market, and then there is our desire for satisfying our needs. The second is unquenchable and the first finds a way to satisfy the need. Always. Trying to come up with regulations mandated by the UIGEA that work will be impossible. If it were possible, it would have already been done. Months ago. The only thing that is stopping the work-arounds are the regs haven't come out. The moment they do, the machinery will start to process it and find ways to screw up the regulators. The Treasury and banks have already said they cannot stop checks. I have made an easy wire transfer and the site has sent me a check. Simple. If it's easier than that, the regulations are screwed.

It's only a matter of time before the DOJ goes after a poker player, and only a matter of time before it goes to court, where all this will come down to whether or not we have the right to do as we wish in the privacy of our own homes. When that happens, the govt will lose and they KNOW IT! That's why it hasn't happened. They aren't stupid. They know how far they can go, although both are quasi-arguable at this point.

You're younger than me, but you're thinking older than me. You are thinking the system in place is all-powerful. It's not. In fact, it's relatively impotent. It comes from the people. If the people say "No More," the system is finished.

There is, at some point in the future--near or far--a revolt coming in this country that may be spread around the world. We will pay taxes, when we believe those taxes are well-spent. Right now, most of us question whether that is happening. We really are beginning to believe they aren't. The Internet is going to be the key to this, too. The point will come when something is going to spark the revolt. The word will go out on the Net. People are going to skip over the politicians and take to the streets, now known as the Internet. They are going to refuse to pay their taxes until something is done. The govt will be helpless. It cannot put us all in jail. There will be no money for it. Nor for cops or prosecutors, judges or jailers.

We have no way of knowing where this is all going. The one thing we do know is that it really is going. The Internet is still only in its first stages. No one knows how much power it has. But, the power of communication is the most powerful on Earth, and the Internet is the way it will spread faster than anything we've ever known.

Here's an example. I have a blog and an Internet radio show. I can say anything I please. The station is not subject to the FCC. The govt cannot shut me down for using the f-word. Suddenly, the govt is irrelevant. That's how it's going to happen.

Our system has been the best man has ever devised, but it was thought up by people who couldn't conceive of where we are now. What will follow will be something perhaps even we can't conceive. True democracy. The power of the individual to promote, foster and demand change. This is what will make the politicians quake in fear.

What's gone on in the last eight years has done more to push this than we might imagine. As they've lost control over us, they've tried even harder to make us bend to their will. It has not worked. It will never work. What we, here, personally, have seen is the beginning of the end of a dying system.

I wish I could be here for all of it. The new world may not be brave, but it will be new.

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail, but it can be a bitch meanwhile
 

Again, I hope that Cactus Jack is right. I think either his scenario will occur in the future or the opposite with total government control i.e. communism with the complicity of both political parties.
I think that the changes wills start about 2020 when the social security and medicare programs run into serious financial difficulty and cause the federal government to either drastically reduce these programs or print money because it cannot sell the bonds to finance the deficit caused by these two entitlements.
I agree that the Internet may be a forum for people to organize to force government to change and finally undo the bureaucratic mess that afflicts all government in the US.

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail, but it can be a bitch meanwhile
 

[ QUOTE ]
D$D, most of us tend to think very short-term. "Suddenly disappear"? No. But neither you nor I can possibly forecast what's going to be in a hundred years. My grandfather is 96. When he was born, there wasn't the sound of airplanes filling the air, cars on highways and people on cell phones. He was in shortpants when he saw his first airplane, in his late thirties before he had a telephone. Heck, he was in his late twenties before he had a toilet that didn't require putting on shoes to get to. Could anyone have predicted the OUR age? And changes are going to come even faster, and more often.

The govt is going to have a helluva time regulating the Internet, and they are never going to be able to regulate personal behavior. Child porn is reprehensible, but they haven't been able to stop it on the Net, despite the huge amount of time and resources put into doing so, AND the fact that the majority of us want it stopped. Even we, the massive percentage of people who want child porn ended cannot make it happen.

There is the free market, and then there is our desire for satisfying our needs. The second is unquenchable and the first finds a way to satisfy the need. Always. Trying to come up with regulations mandated by the UIGEA that work will be impossible. If it were possible, it would have already been done. Months ago. The only thing that is stopping the work-arounds are the regs haven't come out. The moment they do, the machinery will start to process it and find ways to screw up the regulators. The Treasury and banks have already said they cannot stop checks. I have made an easy wire transfer and the site has sent me a check. Simple. If it's easier than that, the regulations are screwed.

It's only a matter of time before the DOJ goes after a poker player, and only a matter of time before it goes to court, where all this will come down to whether or not we have the right to do as we wish in the privacy of our own homes. When that happens, the govt will lose and they KNOW IT! That's why it hasn't happened. They aren't stupid. They know how far they can go, although both are quasi-arguable at this point.

You're younger than me, but you're thinking older than me. You are thinking the system in place is all-powerful. It's not. In fact, it's relatively impotent. It comes from the people. If the people say "No More," the system is finished.

There is, at some point in the future--near or far--a revolt coming in this country that may be spread around the world. We will pay taxes, when we believe those taxes are well-spent. Right now, most of us question whether that is happening. We really are beginning to believe they aren't. The Internet is going to be the key to this, too. The point will come when something is going to spark the revolt. The word will go out on the Net. People are going to skip over the politicians and take to the streets, now known as the Internet. They are going to refuse to pay their taxes until something is done. The govt will be helpless. It cannot put us all in jail. There will be no money for it. Nor for cops or prosecutors, judges or jailers.

We have no way of knowing where this is all going. The one thing we do know is that it really is going. The Internet is still only in its first stages. No one knows how much power it has. But, the power of communication is the most powerful on Earth, and the Internet is the way it will spread faster than anything we've ever known.

Here's an example. I have a blog and an Internet radio show. I can say anything I please. The station is not subject to the FCC. The govt cannot shut me down for using the f-word. Suddenly, the govt is irrelevant. That's how it's going to happen.

Our system has been the best man has ever devised, but it was thought up by people who couldn't conceive of where we are now. What will follow will be something perhaps even we can't conceive. True democracy. The power of the individual to promote, foster and demand change. This is what will make the politicians quake in fear.

What's gone on in the last eight years has done more to push this than we might imagine. As they've lost control over us, they've tried even harder to make us bend to their will. It has not worked. It will never work. What we, here, personally, have seen is the beginning of the end of a dying system.

I wish I could be here for all of it. The new world may not be brave, but it will be new.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am of the opposite opinion. People may want change, but its similar to what I used to discuss with my Chinese friend about why the COmmunist Party won't be overthrown there by the people. Some of the arguments work here, and a couple of others. I guess my core assumptions are this. 1) We are too rich. You talk about your grandfather, how much richer were/are you than he was at your age? In terms of what you can buy and do more than bank account wealth. People are at heart, conservative. If its working, don't rock the boat. Incumbant politicans who are lucky nothign bad happens on their watches are re-eclected ad nauseam. Toss in being loss-averse(not risk averse) as a facet of human nature, the system will stand strong as is. The late 19th and early 20th centuries had strong, principled Anarchist associations, and they didn't succeed in changing the world.
People always went back to what they thought would make them rich, secure, and safe. Stupid sheep, maybe, but we are [censored] stupid animals in a herd. I wouldnn't mind a Revolution, hell I might be up there with the whore on the beast shouting for manna, but I can't see a snapping point coming. Maybe the agitators are just too far away from normal people to get an ear, and they need a messenger. Until the world comes crashing down, you won't see normal Americans in the street demanding change. Their big screen TVs, Canadian pot, and fake titted wives are too nice to leave home.

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail, but it can be a bitch meanwhile
 

[ QUOTE ]


I am of the opposite opinion. People may want change, but its similar to what I used to discuss with my Chinese friend about why the COmmunist Party won't be overthrown there by the people. Some of the arguments work here, and a couple of others. I guess my core assumptions are this. 1) We are too rich. You talk about your grandfather, how much richer were/are you than he was at your age? In terms of what you can buy and do more than bank account wealth. People are at heart, conservative. If its working, don't rock the boat. Incumbant politicans who are lucky nothign bad happens on their watches are re-eclected ad nauseam. Toss in being loss-averse(not risk averse) as a facet of human nature, the system will stand strong as is. The late 19th and early 20th centuries had strong, principled Anarchist associations, and they didn't succeed in changing the world.
People always went back to what they thought would make them rich, secure, and safe. Stupid sheep, maybe, but we are [censored] stupid animals in a herd. I wouldnn't mind a Revolution, hell I might be up there with the whore on the beast shouting for manna, but I can't see a snapping point coming. Maybe the agitators are just too far away from normal people to get an ear, and they need a messenger. Until the world comes crashing down, you won't see normal Americans in the street demanding change. Their big screen TVs, Canadian pot, and fake titted wives are too nice to leave home.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points. I have had this convo with friends and a true revolution would mean major sacrifice (including the safety and comfort of their families) - sacrifice that not many would be willing to give. It would have to take a major event to spark enough outcry. Though if it ever comes down to it the internet is the ultimate method of communication - something that past revolts never had the luxury of having.

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail, but it can be a bitch meanwhile
 

[ QUOTE ]
D$D, most of us tend to think very short-term. "Suddenly disappear"? No. But neither you nor I can possibly forecast what's going to be in a hundred years.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the things I've said to my kids was to make a comparision of time between my father and myself. My father was born around the time of the birth of flight. He flew in WWII and went on to log thousands of hours. I was born around the time of the launch of the first space satillite, the birth of a communications age and have made my living from information and speedier communication. I ask my children to imagine what their world will be like, AND what will their children say about them. This "speach" is usually promopted when they ask something like; "why do you say 'roll up the window in the car'"?

So yes some of me sound like an old guy.
While I put the pipe down a long time ago, you can call me a "pipe dream pragmatist."

Maybe it's all that middle child baggage, but I can out dream anyone you can name, but if I think about it for a while, I temper most of those dreams before they come spilling out of my mouth. No not always, but most of the time. Just today I was told I was cursed because it's usually clear I can see all the angles. Because of that fact and the way I often present ideas, too often people think their is another hidden angle that is totally to my advantage and they are getting screwed, so they back away.

So I'm all for "you're revolution." But "if you want money from minds that hate..........."

There are some old Beatles lyrics in there somewhere....


D$D

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail, but it can be a bitch meanwhile
 

Everyone,

There have been a number of different opinions expressed here, and all are valid, as no one knows the future. I do know one thing....under every scenario presented, we're best off by strongly advocating for our rights. I have no doubt we'll all continue to do so.

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail, but it can be a bitch meanwhile
 

Thanks for all the replies. Some very intelligent people on this site.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I wish I could be here for all of it. The new world may not be brave, but it will be new.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am of the opposite opinion. People may want change, but its similar to what I used to discuss with my Chinese friend about why the COmmunist Party won't be overthrown there by the people. Some of the arguments work here, and a couple of others. I guess my core assumptions are this. 1) We are too rich. You talk about your grandfather, how much richer were/are you than he was at your age? In terms of what you can buy and do more than bank account wealth. People are at heart, conservative. If its working, don't rock the boat. Incumbant politicans who are lucky nothign bad happens on their watches are re-eclected ad nauseam. Toss in being loss-averse(not risk averse) as a facet of human nature, the system will stand strong as is. The late 19th and early 20th centuries had strong, principled Anarchist associations, and they didn't succeed in changing the world.
People always went back to what they thought would make them rich, secure, and safe. Stupid sheep, maybe, but we are [censored] stupid animals in a herd. I wouldnn't mind a Revolution, hell I might be up there with the whore on the beast shouting for manna, but I can't see a snapping point coming. Maybe the agitators are just too far away from normal people to get an ear, and they need a messenger. Until the world comes crashing down, you won't see normal Americans in the street demanding change. Their big screen TVs, Canadian pot, and fake titted wives are too nice to leave home.

[/ QUOTE ]

Surprisingly, I'm pretty much as cynical as you are, Leg. I have a very low opinion of people in general, although there are a few I like individually. I despair of the herd mentality and the inability to look at anything in depth. There is so much of the "I got mine, and will do anything to stop you from getting yours." I'm stuck in the Sixties, I guess.

I do believe, however, that there is always on ongoing social revolution, an evolution. Change goes on and there is nothing we can do to stop it. I was taught to say "sir" and "ma'am." Children aren't taught that anymore. That's bad, but it is what it is. I can't stop it and no one else can either.

What we can't predict is how the Internet is going to facilitate change. At some point, we're going to realize that armed conflict is obsolete. The European Union is the first example of how the world is going, and wouldn't have happened without the Internet, btw. Economics is going to change borders. Nationalism may slowly disappear. The Internet gives even lowly peons like me a voice. When those voices coalesce, it may reach a crescendo. The politicians are survivors, if nothing else. Once they see which way the herd is moving, they'll do their very best to get in front of it and "provide leadership."

I really do think that what's been happening with regard to poker is a micro-example of the past and future. Govt trying to regulate behavior, and we're ignoring it. Good for us.

D$D,

While I WANT to see the revolution, I also DO NOT. I don't trust an individual or group to change things for the better. I do believe that the direction society goes is where it will go.

The Gutenburg press changed the world. The literacy level skyrocketed in just a few short years. Forget BC and AD. The true line should be BG and AG. After Gutenberg, change came rapidly and has continued. The Internet is going to be the next, and will be as significant or perhaps even more, as not only will people become more educated, but more illuminated, and more involved, and it will go beyond all borders as we know it.

What we can't know is when, where, and what. I trust evolution, but not revolution. I trust Darwin completely. I trust Marx not at all.

TE,

Absolutely we should continue to voice our desires. This forum here is the example which shows the power of the Net and the future. We are coming together without travel, without time schedules, and without traditional leadership. While they may try to ignore us, they are going to realize they cannot.

Unless they shut down my connection, they cannot stop me or anyone else from playing poker online. When they figure that out, then things will change. Their entire effort is totally and utterly futile. We know it. When will they?

Good stuff, guys.

CJ

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail
 

The casual player will return and only play at the regulated sites.

The regulation will work. Look at prohibition, how often do you buy booze from somewhere that doesn't have a liquor lisence?

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail, but it can be a bitch meanwhile
 

I don't think armed conflict is obsolete. I wish it was, but as a planet we will have 1-2 more bloodbaths. I hate all this praising the WWII effort. It stopped short, and was followed up like [censored]. The 60s generation and the people who fought in WWI that were in power in the 60s [censored] the world in the ass.
You really think the masses of people who are still living in crushing poverty and dropping 4 kids/woman are going ot sit idly by and keep making the West richer? At some point there will be a tipping point and the less rich world will clash with the more rich. Its history, you think its dead?
Im with you that representative democracy won't be the end of the evolution of government, but I despair of it becoming more liberal. At some point the stupidity and ill-informed nature of the masses has to be more insulated from politics.
Jefferson's fears of democracy by the uneducated ruining the country are coming to pass. They are lazy, selfish, ignorant, and partisan.

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail, but it can be a bitch meanwhile
 

Cactus,

Nice post. Interesting take.

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail
 

Make room in PMs plz

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line?

[/ QUOTE ]

If anything, if 'coming into line' means these poker sites can freely advertise on US mainstream media, it might be reason enough.

At the moment, poker sites have to jump through hoops (loopholes really) in order to advertise in the US. That's why you see all these .NET advertisements from Full Tilt. (as opposed to .COM) None of the ads actually talk about money, playing for real money, bonuses, etc.

If a gambling company, can put an ad during the Superbowl with a clear message saying: "Register with us and we'll give you a $600 bonus", well, that could be huge.

Re: All regulation is doomed to fail
 

[ QUOTE ]
If a gambling company, can put an ad during the Superbowl with a clear message saying: "Register with us and we'll give you a $600 bonus", well, that could be huge.

[/ QUOTE ]

That thought makes me strangely aroused ...