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2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
**Note: Didn't see ryanghall's thread about the no Lilly/Meche thing but this one covers a more broad spectrum.**
JP sort of kicked things off in a backward manner by signing Thomas right off the bat (and for those of you who said that they overpaid, believe it or not there was a market for a player of his type; read: Mike Piazza. The signing of Zaun and Stairs were relatively minor, but what really stirred things was when Lilly eventually signed with the Cubbies. 4/40 for a .500 pitcher was completely asinine but that's this years market for you. Someone will end up giving the declining Zito 18 million over 5-6 years. The big issue right now is the rotation. There is arguably a gaping hole in the 3rd spot, as Chacin is a perfect #4 providing he can stay consistent. He seems to get the most run support compared to the rest of the rotation and considering the ridiculous lineup we'll have this season, nothing should change too greatly. As for the 5th spot, I would love to see McGowan out of all the youngsters make it as if could ever get his command under control he could be a future ace. This is make-or-break time for him but what is crucial is that Gibbons let McGowan run with the last spot, win or lose. Although this looks contradicting to what the Jays are trying to do this year, maybe all he needed was the reassurance that he would be starting every five days over a long period. As I type this, JP and Wells are apparently deep in talks hammering out a deal in the ballpark of 7/126 which is one year less but one mill per season more than Soriano but considering a comparison between the two and 'fair market value', is an appropriate figure. He along with Halladay are the cornerstones of the franchise. So as it stands, if we can ink Wells and get at least one more good starter either through FA or more likely via trade, as well as some bullpen help then I am strongly confident that we'll contend for the pennant. So where are you other Jays fan? |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
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Ship it. [/ QUOTE ] I really hate this signing. He is 28 years old most likely peaked last year and he have him locked up for seven years. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
The Wells signing was on overpay IMO, but it's probably the only way he was going to stay in Toronto. He is a very valuable player.
I expect this year for the Jays to fall back quite a bit. Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the league, but you lost a well above average guy in Lilly, and Burnett is never a good bet to make 30 starts. Chacin is probably better than replacement but your rotation is really in awful shape. In the pen, B.J. Ryan is a relief ace, Speier is very good, Scott Downs is a good long guy, Frasor and League and Tallet are all good relievers. Basically, the bullpen is a huge strength of this Jays team. In the lineup, Overbay, Glaus, Johnson, Rios are all superior guys to go along with the very good Wells and Thomas. The bottom three spots of your lineup will be a real weakness, as not much can be expected of your set of middle infielders. I made the statement about expecting the Jays to fall back quite a bit without knowing much about the team. Looking at it, they're a lot stronger than I thought. They'd probably win every division not named the AL East or AL Central, in spite of their absolute dreck of a rotation. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
Scary_Tiger,
Speier is gone, but Accardo has very good peripherals and looked really good last year. McGowan, Marcum, Jansen, someone is going to need to become a starter, I'm still hoping the Jays will make a run at Mark Mulder or Victor Zambrano or someone else. As for the middle infield A platoon of Russ Adams and Royce Clayton at shortstop could be surprisingly unterrible, perhaps replacement level or slightly above. If Aaron Hill plays 2b he will be a slightly above average second baseman when you factor is his defense. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
Not to nitpick but...
[ QUOTE ] The Wells signing was on overpay IMO, but it's probably the only way he was going to stay in Toronto. He is a very valuable player. [/ QUOTE ] I wouldn't go as far as to say it was an overpay. Yes it is a very large contract, but Wells is arguably a top 3 CF who's in the prime of his career and even though his slugging numbers have bounced around a bit, I fully expect them to continue to be as good as they were last year (and with the Thomas signing, to increase). He, along with Halladay are the leaders/cornerstones of the franchise and along with Halladay is a 'home grown' All-Star. Also, this was a statement to Wells, MLB and most importantly the fans that this team is committed to fielding a winner. Needless to say, hopefully he can stay out of injury trouble. [ QUOTE ] ...but you lost a well above average guy in Lilly, and Burnett is never a good bet to make 30 starts. Chacin is probably better than replacement but your rotation is really in awful shape. [/ QUOTE ] When you say 'above average', are you referring to his career record of 59-58. Sure he can be lights out when he's on, but as a longtime Jays follower I can tell you that there's been too many times where's he been knocked around which prevented him from finding a groove. In other words, the Cubs overpaid by about 1.5+ million/yr and to top it off him not being a ground ball pitcher in windy Wrigley should be fun. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [ QUOTE ] In the pen, B.J. Ryan is a relief ace, Speier is very good, Scott Downs is a good long guy, Frasor and League and Tallet are all good relievers. Basically, the bullpen is a huge strength of this Jays team [/ QUOTE ] As mentioned, we lost Speier. I would put BJ Ryan behind only K-Rod and Mo Rivera, he is just that good. Frasor had a terrible first half but bounced back in the second half. League will hopefully become the permanent setup guy and may work as a spot starter during a rotation injury. As it stands, the Jays could do with a solid 8th inning guy so that when Halladay and *hopefully* Burnett have gone 7-8 innings the previous days before, the 3-5 guys will only be expected to put up 5-6 solid innings. So ya, the Jays bullpen isn't exactly a strength right now. [ QUOTE ] The bottom three spots of your lineup will be a real weakness, as not much can be expected of your set of middle infielders. [/ QUOTE ] Unless you have Utley or Cano in your MIF, then you can't place too much offensive pressure on them. I think Adam Hill (already a .300 hitter) will continue to develop into a solid hitter. As for SS, the current tandem of McDonald/Clayton is very good defensively (the main concern) and I think the other 8 spots will make up for the lack of offensive punch from this spot. And I think Zaun will be just as good, if not better than last year, as he won't be platooning with Molina, unless there's a change. [ QUOTE ] I expect this year for the Jays to fall back quite a bit. [/ QUOTE ] Not if JP and the increased payroll have anything to do with it... I should probably say I typed this out without reading the last paragraph of your post but I thought it was worth posting anyways. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
Zim,
Lilly is an above average starting pitcher and I don't really think he got overpaid. First off W-L is a horrible way too measure a pitcher, but also an "average" starting pitcher is a very useful commodity. Average starting pitchers are very hard to find. Our major problem in the bullpen is a lack of good lefties after BJ and Downs. Accardo and League are both very good. Using Chris Dial's Rankings http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/file...tion_al_aug_27/ http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/file...tion_nl_aug_27/ Both McDonald and Clayton are below average defensive SS's. McDonald doesn't deserve to be on a MLB roster and him being a defensive specialist is a myth. We will need to find a decent backup catcher as Zaun is physically incapable of catching a lot of games. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
Congrats on the Wells signing. A great contract compared to most of the long term deals signed this offseason.
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Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
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When you say 'above average', are you referring to his career record of 59-58. Sure he can be lights out when he's on, but as a longtime Jays follower I can tell you that there's been too many times where's he been knocked around which prevented him from finding a groove. [/ QUOTE ] When I say 'above average' I mean he is better than the average starting pitcher in MLB. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
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Zim, Lilly is an above average starting pitcher and I don't really think he got overpaid. First off W-L is a horrible way too measure a pitcher, but also an "average" starting pitcher is a very useful commodity. Average starting pitchers are very hard to find. [/ QUOTE ] Nice explanation. Let me add this: Right now teams use five starting pitchers full time, contrary to another positions in which one player is full-time. Because of this, a rotation with 4 league average starting pitchers and one above average pitcher is above average. Also, a league average starting pitcher is an above average 4 or 5 starter. All of these comments really boil down to the concept of replacement level: Who is being moved out of the rotation by signing a "league average" starting pitcher? It is the five starter, not the 2 or 3 starter. What is this player adding to my team? I'm a Cubs fan and I really like the Lilly signing. He's a better bet than Meche, and Lilly pushes out a replacement level player from the rotation. Unfortunately, they added a replacement level pitcher by signing Marquis a couple of days later... |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
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Lilly is an above average starting pitcher and I don't really think he got overpaid. First off W-L is a horrible way too measure a pitcher, but also an "average" starting pitcher is a very useful commodity. Average starting pitchers are very hard to find. [/ QUOTE ] You're right, only considering a pitcher's ERA would be an inappropriate method of analyzing a pitcher as they may have received a below average amount of run support. But would you care to provide the stats for the average American League Pitcher and then compare them to Lilly's? Or would you intend on comparing his to the average Major League pitcher, since there is a somewhat significant difference between the two leagues (one is more predominently a 'slugfest' to put it simply, while the other is a more tactical approach to grinding out runs). One might say that pitching in the toughest division in baseball has skewed his stats somewhat, but when you consider that Lilly has excellent averages against the Red Sox (not sure about the Yankees, although they're probably not as spectacular), the logic seems to fall short. Another important aspect is durability. Lilly's career has been marked by injuries that have landed him on both the 15 and 60 day DL on more than one occasion. Take his former teammate Doc Halladay, an absolute horse. He is about as close to a guaranteed win as you can get, needing little run support to consistently give his team a chance to win. Btw, he's due to make 13 million in '07. Now take AJ Burnett, a pitcher whose career average is similar to Lilly's. Both have shown flashes of brilliance, but have been unable to string together successive, consistent starts together (as well as having been hit by injuries). However, the major difference is that Burnett's 'stuff' is on a level above Lilly's, thus labelling him as ace-type talent. Burnett's fastball and curve can be devastating at times while Lilly's go to pitch is the 12-6 curve, but when he's off and leaving them in the middle of the plate, lookout. Burnett is scheduled to make 11 mil in '07 and last year JP was criticized by many for overpaying somewhat significantly for Burnett. This year, if AJ was on the market you could forget about 11 as starting bids would be coming in at 14-15 (after Lilly gets 10). One could say that it's simply the market, which is probably also going to be the explanation when Zito gets 100+ million over 6+ years which is absolutely asinine. If you were to list all of the 10 million dollar pitchers and include Lilly on it and then compare them, I gurarantee you he would be at the bottom. Of course, Lilly could finally find himself with the Cubbies as there seems to be a trend (read: Wood, Prior) with new Chicago pitchers having a great first year and them bombing with injuries/inconsistences. In which case I will be proven wrong, but if I had a choice 9 times out of 10 I would be betting on him having yet another season of mediocrity. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
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Because of this, a rotation with 4 league average starting pitchers and one above average pitcher is above average. [/ QUOTE ] Again, I'd be interested in knowing the stats for a typical ML starter. And wouldn't teams hope to have two abover average, two average and one below average pitcher in their rotation? I agree, until I see otherwise, Meche is worth no more than Lilly. Lol at him now being the 'Royal's ace.' That's their staff for ya. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
The average ERA for an AL starting pitcher over the past four seasons is just about an even 5;however, Lilly is even better than an ERA comparision would show, because Toronto is a hitter's park. We can also question the range of the Jays D in 04-05.
FYI-The ERA for starters is higher than relievers. The AL ERA overall was 4.59 last year. [ QUOTE ] If you were to list all of the 10 million dollar pitchers and include Lilly on it and then compare them, I gurarantee you he would be at the bottom. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, but Lilly makes exactly 10 mil a year, and he just signed his contract. Schmidt got over 15 mil a year, Padilla over 11, Meche 11, Suppan will get 11...I think lilly is the best bargain of the bunch, but my point is simply that the market now for pitching isn't the same as what it was 3 years ago, or last year. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
If playing in a hitter-friendly park such as Roger's Centre has altered Lilly's stats compared to if he were pitching in an average size park, then what explains Lilly's dominance of the Red Sox at the shoebox known as Fenway? I think playing them 8+ times over the past few years is a large enough sample size. Does he just 'have their number'? If so, then what explains his road ERA of 4.96 compared to just 4.15 at home over the last 3 years?
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Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
Vin,
There are serious sample size issues in citing his stats against the Red Sox. The market has changed this year you can't compare contracts signed last year to ones signed this year. Halladay and Burnett both have injury problem as well. Rogers Centre is a hitters park. As Propertarian said AL Starters ERA > AL Pitchers ERA Lilly's biggest problem is his walk rate. Lilly isn't mediocre. He is good last year by VORP he was the 69th best pitcher in all of baseball. Guys like Lilly aren't easily replaceable. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
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The Wells signing was on overpay IMO, but it's probably the only way he was going to stay in Toronto. He is a very valuable player. [/ QUOTE ] He's a top-10 MVP candidate and a Gold Glove-caliber centerfielder, one of the most underrated players in baseball. I'm glad we kept him, and it's not like Rogers can't afford it anyway. [ QUOTE ] Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the league, but you lost a well above average guy in Lilly, [/ QUOTE ] Well, Lilly is well above average whenever he pitches against the Red Sox. He owns Boston. Against every other team in the league, he's average on a good day. No big loss. We have guys like Marcum, Janssen, and McGowan who are ready to replace him. [ QUOTE ] and Burnett is never a good bet to make 30 starts. [/ QUOTE ] When he does pitch, he's very good, and he's about due to have an injury-free year. I think we paid too much for him last year, mind you, but he's a solid #2 when he's in the lineup. [ QUOTE ] Chacin is probably better than replacement but your rotation is really in awful shape. [/ QUOTE ] Chacin is far better than a replacement-level pitcher. Your assessment of Lilly as an above-average pitcher would be far more accurate if applied to Chacin. The real problems in our rotation, which are now gone, were the fact that our #4 starter, Lilly, couldn't beat any team except Boston, and our #5 guy most of the year, Towers, couldn't beat anybody at all. Any 2 random kids from Syracuse will be a huge improvement over those 2 yahoos, and McGowan has a chance to be -really- good. The only one of the pitchers who's gone that I'm upset about losing is Speier, and everyone knew he was leaving after the 2006 season anyway. [ QUOTE ] In the pen, B.J. Ryan is a relief ace, Speier is very good, Scott Downs is a good long guy, Frasor and League and Tallet are all good relievers. Basically, the bullpen is a huge strength of this Jays team. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know what Jays team you were watching last year, but the bullpen, other than Ryan and the now-departed Speier (he signed with the Angels during the off-season), was one of the major -weaknesses- of the Blue Jays team, and the main reason along with the gaping hole at the end of the rotation that we didn't give the Yankees more of a run. I don't know how many times last year I saw the Jays get out to an early lead and then watch Chulk, Schoeneweis, Frasor et al. piss it away with horrible long relief. Tallet and League are OK but nothing special, although League's 100-mph fastball is nasty on the few occasions he manages to get it in the general vicinity of home plate. Downs is mediocre, although he does have the added value of being able to be a spot starter as well. At worst, he's a hell of an improvement over throwing Josh "Automatic Loss" Towers out there every 5 days, that's for sure. --Scott |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
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[ QUOTE ] The Wells signing was on overpay IMO, but it's probably the only way he was going to stay in Toronto. He is a very valuable player. [/ QUOTE ] He's a top-10 MVP candidate and a Gold Glove-caliber centerfielder, one of the most underrated players in baseball. I'm glad we kept him, and it's not like Rogers can't afford it anyway. [/ QUOTE ] In a career year he wasn't a top ten MVP candidate. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the league, but you lost a well above average guy in Lilly, [/ QUOTE ] Well, Lilly is well above average whenever he pitches against the Red Sox. He owns Boston. Against every other team in the league, he's average on a good day. No big loss. We have guys like Marcum, Janssen, and McGowan who are ready to replace him. [/ QUOTE ] Lilly is much better than Marcum, Janessen and McGowan and to suggest otherwise is ridiculous. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Chacin is probably better than replacement but your rotation is really in awful shape. [/ QUOTE ] Chacin is far better than a replacement-level pitcher. Your assessment of Lilly as an above-average pitcher would be far more accurate if applied to Chacin. The real problems in our rotation, which are now gone, were the fact that our #4 starter, Lilly, couldn't beat any team except Boston, and our #5 guy most of the year, Towers, couldn't beat anybody at all. Any 2 random kids from Syracuse will be a huge improvement over those 2 yahoos, and McGowan has a chance to be -really- good. [/ QUOTE ] Did you watch last year? Do you really think guys like Ty Taubenheim or Janssen were just as good as Lilly? Last year Lilly had a similar walk rate to Chacin and a much better strikeout rate. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] In the pen, B.J. Ryan is a relief ace, Speier is very good, Scott Downs is a good long guy, Frasor and League and Tallet are all good relievers. Basically, the bullpen is a huge strength of this Jays team. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know what Jays team you were watching last year, but the bullpen, other than Ryan and the now-departed Speier (he signed with the Angels during the off-season), was one of the major -weaknesses- of the Blue Jays team, and the main reason along with the gaping hole at the end of the rotation that we didn't give the Yankees more of a run. I don't know how many times last year I saw the Jays get out to an early lead and then watch Chulk, Schoeneweis, Frasor et al. piss it away with horrible long relief. Tallet and League are OK but nothing special, although League's 100-mph fastball is nasty on the few occasions he manages to get it in the general vicinity of home plate. Downs is mediocre, although he does have the added value of being able to be a spot starter as well. At worst, he's a hell of an improvement over throwing Josh "Automatic Loss" Towers out there every 5 days, that's for sure. --Scott [/ QUOTE ] Our bullpen is solid except we are missing another lefty after BJ. You are really underestimating the value of an average pitcher. They don't just grow on trees. If a player like Downs got injured it would mean we would need to give serious playing time to guys like Towers. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
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In a career year he wasn't a top ten MVP candidate. [/ QUOTE ] Most MVP candidates tend to be on teams that make the playoffs. Over the past few years the Jays have failed to field a truly playoff caliber team. [ QUOTE ] Lilly is much better than Marcum, Janessen and McGowan and to suggest otherwise is ridiculous. [/ QUOTE ] Of course, as it stands now any baseball person with half a brain would take a team of Lilly's over a team of those guys. Lilly also happens to be an 8 year veteran who is accustomed to pitching every five days in the bigs. The three mentioned above, especially McGowan, have limited experience which leaves their futures undetermined. Although I think is the make or break year for McGowan. If he doesn't come through, then JP needs to cut his losses and move on. You keep saying that 'average pitchers' are hard to come by and are thus very valuable...Is that why Gil Meche got 5 years/55 mil from KC? Because Lilly's career averages are actually worse than Meche's, and Meche got the bigger contract. Or is it because Meche (along with Burnett) are considered to have untapped potential to consistently put up great numbers; after all, they got the same contract. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
3rd place in the AL east.... thread over?
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Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
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3rd place in the AL east.... thread over? [/ QUOTE ] There's a good chance they finish third, but it's hardly a given. They did finish ahead of the Red Sox last year, you know. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
Sort of forgot about this thread. JP's been pretty quiet with the rotation.
Thompson signs; Frasor re-signs Overbay re-signs Fasano signs MnL contract -Thompson was a solid signing. Even if he doesn't pan out, it won't have been an expensive risk. -Frasor had a rough start last year, but needed to be resigned. -Overbay is another Johnny Olerud, minus the BA. -Current rumours include JP possibly tabling an offer for Boomer Wells if the Padres thing falls through, but it's still highly unlikely; Alex Rios was being shopped to the Dodgers for Billingsley and either Kemp or Broxton as well as to Philly for Myers, but Gillick shot it down. |
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-Alex Rios was being shopped to the Dodgers for Billingsley and either Kemp or Broxton [/ QUOTE ] I couldn't see the Dodgers doing this even if it was just Bills. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
Agreed. Rios + Mid level Prospect.
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Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
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[ QUOTE ] In a career year he wasn't a top ten MVP candidate. [/ QUOTE ] Most MVP candidates tend to be on teams that make the playoffs. Over the past few years the Jays have failed to field a truly playoff caliber team. [ QUOTE ] Lilly is much better than Marcum, Janessen and McGowan and to suggest otherwise is ridiculous. [/ QUOTE ] Of course, as it stands now any baseball person with half a brain would take a team of Lilly's over a team of those guys. Lilly also happens to be an 8 year veteran who is accustomed to pitching every five days in the bigs. The three mentioned above, especially McGowan, have limited experience which leaves their futures undetermined. Although I think is the make or break year for McGowan. If he doesn't come through, then JP needs to cut his losses and move on. You keep saying that 'average pitchers' are hard to come by and are thus very valuable...Is that why Gil Meche got 5 years/55 mil from KC? Because Lilly's career averages are actually worse than Meche's, and Meche got the bigger contract. Or is it because Meche (along with Burnett) are considered to have untapped potential to consistently put up great numbers; after all, they got the same contract. [/ QUOTE ] Are all Jays fans like this? Jays will be lucky to finish third again. I love it when a team spends a lot but is really spinning their wheels. It also doesn't help that they have the two best teams in baseball in their division, a team with some of the best young in baseball, and another team finally getting their act together. Here's a good example of how |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
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[ QUOTE ] In a career year he wasn't a top ten MVP candidate. [/ QUOTE ] Most MVP candidates tend to be on teams that make the playoffs. Over the past few years the Jays have failed to field a truly playoff caliber team. [/ QUOTE ] Regardless of team he was not one of the ten best players in the AL although he was probably somewhere around 15. I really like the Thomson and Overbay signings. Vyse [ QUOTE ] Jays will be lucky to finish third again. [/ QUOTE ] Do you feel like putting your money where your mouth is? |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
The Jays can contend, but the rotation is scary. If everyone stays healthy it could be decent, but none of the guys in the rotation have been able to do that.
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Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
Jays are a pretty big fave to finish third if my numbas are correct.
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Are all Jays fans like this? Jays will be lucky to finish third again. [/ QUOTE ] I'll bet you $200 they finish 3rd or higher. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
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The Jays can contend, but the rotation is scary. If everyone stays healthy it could be decent, but none of the guys in the rotation have been able to do that. [/ QUOTE ] QFT. You'd have to think JP is competent to realize that the rotation, as it stands now, won't be getting them into any playoffs. He needs to do what he has to to get that 180IP #3 starter. Although doing that would put them back to where they were at before Lilly left. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
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[ QUOTE ] The Jays can contend, but the rotation is scary. If everyone stays healthy it could be decent, but none of the guys in the rotation have been able to do that. [/ QUOTE ] QFT. You'd have to think JP is competent to realize that the rotation, as it stands now, won't be getting them into any playoffs. He needs to do what he has to to get that 180IP #3 starter. Although doing that would put them back to where they were at before Lilly left. [/ QUOTE ] See that's what I have been trying to say. A #3 starter who pitches 180 innings is a very valuable commodity. As of know our rotation of Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Thomson, Any of like 12 people. Is a pretty good rotation. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The Jays can contend, but the rotation is scary. If everyone stays healthy it could be decent, but none of the guys in the rotation have been able to do that. [/ QUOTE ] QFT. You'd have to think JP is competent to realize that the rotation, as it stands now, won't be getting them into any playoffs. He needs to do what he has to to get that 180IP #3 starter. Although doing that would put them back to where they were at before Lilly left. [/ QUOTE ] See that's what I have been trying to say. A #3 starter who pitches 180 innings is a very valuable commodity. As of know our rotation of Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Thomson, Any of like 12 people. Is a pretty good rotation. [/ QUOTE ] That rotation is Halladay and then wing and a prayer. They could win the World Series with that rotation, or get 100 losses with it. As a Jays fan I would breathe a little easier if JP can somehow get just one reliable arm. |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
Other than health, I don't think anyone should have any concerns with Halliday, Burnett and Chacin. 4th and 5th starters and the middle relief will define the Jays this year.
I know Boston improved its team in the offseason, but they will be lucky to have the same record as last year. The 1st half of the season the Red Sox had last year saw them having way more than their share or miracle comebacks, and that couldn't last forever. Yankees 102-60 Jays (WC)98-64 Red Sox 81-81 Tampa 80-82 Orioles 70-92 |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
lol @ that
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Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
Motorholdem,
Saying other than health, Burnett and Chacin is fine is like saying other than klling the millions of people Hitler wasn't all that bad. Also for a #4 starter John Thomson has very good peripherals. Your records for the AL east are so fair off. Are you aware of how many divisional games teams play? |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
[ QUOTE ]
Other than health, I don't think anyone should have any concerns with Halliday, Burnett and Chacin. 4th and 5th starters and the middle relief will define the Jays this year. I know Boston improved its team in the offseason, but they will be lucky to have the same record as last year. The 1st half of the season the Red Sox had last year saw them having way more than their share or miracle comebacks, and that couldn't last forever. Yankees 102-60 Jays (WC)98-64 Red Sox 81-81 Tampa 80-82 Orioles 70-92 [/ QUOTE ] Burnett has been a .500 pitcher his whole career. I watched him a lot last year, and he seems like one of those guys that will always make you say "Next year he will be better". I actually have a little more faith in Chacin. If his health stays decent, the kid could be a player. He gives up a lot of runs, but manages to win his fair share (not in the same league, but think of him as a very poor man's Jack Morris). |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
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Motorholdem, Saying other than health, Burnett and Chacin is fine is like saying other than klling the millions of people Hitler wasn't all that bad. Also for a #4 starter John Thomson has very good peripherals. Your records for the AL east are so fair off. Are you aware of how many divisional games teams play? [/ QUOTE ] Some rotations are awful, even if they stay healthy all year. Would you like a potfull of Josh Towers all year, or would you hope his arm fell off? Health is a major issue for the Jays, because, as you know, Halliday, Burnett and Chacin all had problems last year. I've never seen a pitching rotation's health compared to Hitler's killings, but if anyone wanted to make that leap I guess it would be you, Pudge. Oh and gee, do the AL East teams play each other lots. That would explain all those Tampa Bay games. Sober up |
Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
They won't win 88 games nevermind 98 games
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Re: 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
motorholdem, you realize "4th and 5th starters" get twice as many starts as Halladay? (if YOU are lucky) Schilling/Matsuzaka/Papelbon/Beckett/Wakefield/Lester and Mussina/Pettitte/Wang/Igawa/Pavano/Hughes are both huge edges over Halladay/Burnett/Chacin. Depth is very important to putting together 90 win seasons, and 4th and 5th starters aren't even depth. They're part of your team that's contributing a ton.
I expect the aging Yankees and the young and talented Blue Jays to outhit the Red Sox this year, but the edge here isn't anywhere near the edge in the starting rotation. Crisp/Lugo/Ortiz/Manny/Drew/Lowell/Youks/Varitek/Pedroia is still pretty powerful, although the bottom two spots are basically a black hole. In the bullpen, I'm very positive with the Blue Jays, they have the best and deepest bullpen, the Yankees still have Mo, and the Red Sox are basically piecing it together. Just the same, the Jays simply won't be able to overcome having a 5 man rotation with only 3 pitchers. Edit: Missed Thomson signing but he isn't near as good as any of the 15 pitchers listed. |
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