Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

Party has been one of the worst stocks I have ever seen, as its dropped from 175 to 90 in just about a year. I have only played the mutual fund game, which is a much easier one to be a winner at, but alas I'm not very knowledgable in equities.

Would it be worth my while to options trade on Party, since I can easily see it hitting 80 by the end of the year, now that the internet gambling bill has passed. Anybody knowledgable, Naj? DesertCat? Help me out on this one?

Re: Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

I don't know jack about this sort of thing, but this sounds like a good idea to me, and I would expect it to fall much more than 11%, since Americans are such a huge part of their business.

Re: Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

The full impact of the legislation is still a bit unclear... but, uncertainty is not good for stock price...

You will need an account that allows you to trade London stocks though.

Re: Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

What is their ticker on the London stock Exchange?

Re: Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

Some Poker/Gambling related symbols on the London exchange...

PRTY - PartyGaming
EOL - Empire Online
NLR - Neteller
SBT - Sportingbet
888 - 888 Holdings
WMH - William Hill
BSS - BetOnSports

Re: Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

I was also thinking about buying some put options. I just read there interim report

http://www.partygaming.com/images/do...lts_070906.pdf

page 2-6 the are hyping up there increase of new non-us markets and really making that the focal point of 2006. On page 20 you can see that US provides prty 77% of there revenue this year even after all of the good things they tell you about non-US markets. During all of this since Jan. of 2006 the stock has dropped from 135 to 105 and has actually increased since June. This also could be a good opportunity for a straddle.

Re: Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

the problem is that everyone is going to be shorting them, so trying to get in will probably be tough. Its not like we're the only one's who know this news.

Re: Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

do most online brokers based in the us let you trade stocks on foreign exchanges? scottrade, ameritrade, etc?

Re: Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]
do most online brokers based in the us let you trade stocks on foreign exchanges? scottrade, ameritrade, etc?

[/ QUOTE ]

Most do not...

Re: Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

I thought we could just buy PYGMF.PK?

Re: Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I thought we could just buy PYGMF.PK?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are lots of reasons not to do that... starting with its a low volume pink sheet stock which you won't be able to short.

Re: Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

Shorting party is probably not a good idea right now. The news has already hit, so by the time you get into a position, most of the damage will have been done. Then you run the risk of watching the stock go up do to the US gov't having trouble actually enforcing their new law. Of course if you think this law will pretty much shut down online gaming, and party doesn't make a big negative move on Monday, then you may want to short. However I believe it will be months before we see the real effects of this ban. In that time you may not get the desired effect of your short.

Re: Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

perhaps you can buy a few thousand verry cheap on Monday:). I buy them for XX pence!!!!!!!

Re: Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/stock...rty.l&fs=1

FUCKKKKKKKKKKKK I WOULD HAVE BEEN RICHHHHHHHHH, ONE DAY TOO LATEEEEEEE

Re: Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Shorting party is probably not a good idea right now. The news has already hit, so by the time you get into a position, most of the damage will have been done. Then you run the risk of watching the stock go up do to the US gov't having trouble actually enforcing their new law. Of course if you think this law will pretty much shut down online gaming, and party doesn't make a big negative move on Monday, then you may want to short. However I believe it will be months before we see the real effects of this ban. In that time you may not get the desired effect of your short.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

Re: Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

post deleted.

Re: Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?
 

lesson learned, ive been watching this issue for a good couple of weeks now, and the whole time ive been worrying...

remember kids, you dont get clean by rolling in the mud.