Hand Advice Please
 

3 1/2 hours into $20 rebuy on Stars
pays 36 people, around 50 people remaining
avg chip stack around 45,000
Player4 is a tight, smart, good player and this was a rare move to see him put his whole stack on the line, fyi he won the $20R for $8,000+ a few weeks prior but with no other cashes in ~20 games archived


what do you guys think he had and what do you do here (I've purposely removed what I did to get your blind responses)

Thanks

RockHolly


POKERSTARS TOURNAMENT $20+$2 HOLD'EM NOLIMIT - LEVEL XIII (800/1600)
Player1 (51812 in chips)
Player2 (28914 in chips)
RockHolly (29898 in chips)
Player4 (35671 in chips)
Player5 (22187 in chips)
Player6 (21450 in chips)
Player7 (33470 in chips)
Player8 (25400 in chips)
Player9 (150216 in chips)
Player1: posts the ante 150
Player2: posts the ante 150
RockHolly: posts the ante 150
Player4: posts the ante 150
Player5: posts the ante 150
Player6: posts the ante 150
Player7: posts the ante 150
Pplayer8: posts the ante 150
Player9: posts the ante 150
Player5: posts small blind 800
Player6: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RockHolly [Kh Ah]
Player7: folds
Player8: folds
Player9: folds
Player1: folds
Player2: raises 3200 to 4800
RockHolly: calls 4800
Player4: raises 30721 to 35521 and is all-in
Player5: folds
Player6: folds
Player7: folds

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

This hand is actually very easy to play, just shove in the first place. As played, I call the all-in quickly, Villain could be squeezing with a wide range. And remember to discount for AA/KK in his range since you hold two of them.

And also, please use a hand converter next time...

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

If I call I'm most likely a 50% favorite. If he does have AA or KK I'm pretty much toast, but even at best I'm 50% or less.

If I fold I still have $25,000 left and in a later hand I can have fold equity that I do not have here.

Is it really that clear of a call/push or is it closer to 50/50 deciding whether to fold or not when fold equity is considered?

Also, I think with 15k or less the answer is clear but with an M of 7-8 the push might be a little overaggressive with a 50% favorite hand.

Thoughts?

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

I think with an m of 7-8 you're looking for good spots to double up. This is a good spot. You made the mistake of just flat calling the pre. I would shove too. You can't wait for KK+ to shove. You have to take +EV risks. Remember, you're playing for first. If you feel you have to fold into the money, you're probably playing out of your limits.

As played, I shove in a second. The play is so loose this late.

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

50% favorite is an oxymoron.

Also, with this much overlay you want to get it in with a coinflip, or against another AK (which are the most likely outcomes)

Finally, just calling behind is fine I think because you are so deep, and can take a KQ, AQ, AJ type hand for a huge pot that would be folding pf to a shove.

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I call I'm most likely a 50% favorite. If he does have AA or KK I'm pretty much toast, but even at best I'm 50% or less.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think you're at best 50% or less? Even nits squeezes with AT-AQ and such due to fold equity.

[ QUOTE ]

If I fold I still have $25,000 left and in a later hand I can have fold equity that I do not have here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, you still have FE for open-pushes, but your fold equity for re-stealing is very small. I really like to have that FE.

[ QUOTE ]

Is it really that clear of a call/push or is it closer to 50/50 deciding whether to fold or not when fold equity is considered?

Also, I think with 15k or less the answer is clear but with an M of 7-8 the push might be a little overaggressive with a 50% favorite hand.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless Villain is a huge nit, I think the call is 100% clear. And no, pushing AKs the first time is not overaggressive at all, it's completely standard. Again, don't assume your only 50-50 at best when called, people can definitely call with hands you have dominated.

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

why is this a definite push preflop? Are we so afraid of playing AK in position with 15 BBs behind us? I feel like just calling here, even though we arent on the button, is fine because we give ourselves a good chance of winning a huge pot. It also induces squeeze attempts, and give sus the chance to pick off one of those AT-AQ, KQ, tjs squeezes.

On second though, maybe the stakcs aren't quite deep enough to stop us from shoving preflop, but I think if original raiser and hero both had ~40k, just calling preflop is a fine option.

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

Firstly you should give your posts a more meaningful subject. Yours applies to all posts here. Try and include the buy-in and a bit about the hand.

Having said that though your post is well-written.

I'm putting villain here on JJ+,AJs+, which pokerstove says is:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.950% 41.51% 05.44% 19191123 2515086.00 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 53.050% 47.61% 05.44% 22010913 2515086.00 { JJ+, AJs+ }

There's so much dead money in the pot its an easy call (I make it you've got 25k left and can win 43,350). In actual fact you are not a million miles from being able to call if you know he's got KK.

Having said that push preflop.

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

[ QUOTE ]
why is this a definite push preflop? Are we so afraid of playing AK in position with 15 BBs behind us? I feel like just calling here, even though we arent on the button, is fine because we give ourselves a good chance of winning a huge pot. It also induces squeeze attempts, and give sus the chance to pick off one of those AT-AQ, KQ, tjs squeezes.

On second though, maybe the stakcs aren't quite deep enough to stop us from shoving preflop, but I think if original raiser and hero both had ~40k, just calling preflop is a fine option.

[/ QUOTE ]

We can pretty much neglect position here because remaining stacks are probably going in on the flop. Not much room for post-flop play. I don't mind calling and inducing a squeeze if we have a notorious squeezer behind. In other cases I'd just hate to see it folded around and the original raiser make a standard cont bet on a flop that missed us.

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

Call plz.

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

I think I have my answers that the correct move is to definitely call the shove but it's up in the air whether the first raise the action is call or push. I myself still go for call but I can see either argument. Folding to 3rd person push is the wrong course of action though.

Thanks for the responses everyone, this is my first hand history post in the years I have played and I appreciate the responses!!

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

rock...stacks are so shallow you have to push it over the first raise...chances to get big money in the middle with a hand as strong as AKs are rarer than you think late...blinds, antes and aggressive players will whittle you own if you let them

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

yeah, just push the first time around, with AA or KK a call woulda been fine.

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

are you saying a caller that has AA or KK would have been fine versus my AKs? Is that because I just have to chalk it up to bad luck and can't over analyze it too much?

thanks

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

Calling the first raise is bad. Just shove all in.


As played, call player 4's raise.

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

Thanks for all the responses guys. I had been playing tourneys that day and had got knocked out with one with AKs and also beat another guy with KK vs AKs so I think that played a part in me being too tight. "Waiting for a better spot" is silly because that was the spot I wanted but sometimes when I don't see a wired pair my brain shuts off. Also I just had this sense that the guy had AA or KK the few hands he had been playing but it could just as easily have been a squeeze play. I realize my mistake now but here's an email I sent to someone else regarding my thinking BEFORE I posted on 2+2:


'here's what i did as i folded the hand. i figured even with calling i was at best a 48-50% favorite and way behind if he has AA or KK (he certainly could have pushed with the biggest hands to get it down to only 1 opponent with 2 interested thus far and others to go). i figured with still 25k in chips i would wait for a better spot with fold equity that i might have and didn't have in this hand. i got that spot about 10 hands later and pushed FIRST IN with TT. same guy calls with KJs (i'm in great shape at the flop and a 73.74% favorite to win then 75% on the turn) and he hits runner runner for the flush to knock me down and I went out 44th a few hands later which was just short of the bubble".


For someone that has been playing for so many years and hundreds upon hundreds of tourneys I can't believe I made this weak fold but I guess anyone is capable of making mistakes here and there.


Additional question, how much different does it make things if I have AKo or AQs??

Thanks!!!!

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

Very little difference. If he's as good a player as you say he his, he could be doing this with total air about 10%, maybe even 20% of the time depending on the situation. You've got the odds against his range. Take your edge. If you bust or get beaten, oh well, you would have played it right and that play would make you money in the long run.

Pilket

Re: Hand Advice Please
 

Shove first time around.

As played ship it in and race good