Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t3000 with t300 antes (6 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t45398)
UTG+1 (t22026)
CO (t23818)
Button (t20373)
SB (t154795)
Hero (t5143)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to t21726 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t40452</font>


There are 19 left, 18 pay. 903.60 for cashing so its a fairly significant pay jump. I am obviously not a huge fan of "tourney life" or folding getting significant odds. However, I do believe in trying to maximize my expectation. The question is, is this a call or a fold? Folding here makes a little piece of my soul die but I think its probably the correct play.

I got this very small stack from losing a huge hand, doubling up and then getting 29o utg. I figured it was better to fold and call w/ any 2 in the BB. But then this happened.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

Fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold!

Fold!

......fold.

You'll have 2143 next hand. Post 1800. Fold again. You'll have 343 on button, post 300. Down to 43 in cutoff. ALLLLL INN!!!!!!!

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

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Fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold!

Fold!

......fold.

You'll have 2143 next hand. Post 1800. Fold again. You'll have 343 on button, post 300. Down to 43 in cutoff. ALLLLL INN!!!!!!!

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indeed

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

Are there any other short stacks that are on teh brink? This factors heavily.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

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Are there any other short stacks that are on teh brink? This factors heavily.

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Next lowest stack was 17k I believe

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

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Next lowest stack was 17k I believe

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If so, blinding away is not likely to get us into the money. I shove and pray and am likely out on teh bubble.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

Yea, but there is a very high chance that utg+1 busts in this actual hand. Also the 100r bubble never lasts very long since everyone is trying to show how little they care about the bubble.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

What goggles said... I'd fold a realllllllllly wide range here. Like AK is probably a fold.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

omgz play for 1st !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

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omgz play with a full stack

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Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

There comes a time when every doctrine collides with reality. In this case, the doctrine of always playing to win 1st place money is colliding with the reality that you have less than 2BB on the bubble, and some goober has been kind enough to offer to bust himself out before you. Thank him and fold.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

imo this is a fold, in these spots i tend to listen to curtains and goggles because they know sng/icm spots better than 99.99999 percent of poker players.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

I folded... utg+1 sucked out on sb and I went out 19th. Just wanted to make sure that fold was correct.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

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Next lowest stack was 17k I believe

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If so, blinding away is not likely to get us into the money. I shove and pray and am likely out on teh bubble.

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Bad thinking! Your ROI is NOT thanking you!

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

such an easy fold here.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

Easy fold, for the exact reason you think it is.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

quite a std lay ape

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

reading this thread it seems that the obvious answer is the correct one, that hero should fold. just for the hell of it i fooled around with the numbers and came up with some curious/interesting results.

first, i screwed around with poker stove an tried to find hero's equity against various ranges of utg+1 and sb if hero should call. for instance, if utg+1 has exactly AA and sb has exactly KK, hero has 17% equity. if utg+1 and sb both moved in with top 10%, hero's equity is 21.6%. with this data, for the sake of simplicity assume hero has about 20% equity vs any reasonable ranges.

quite frankly, i have a difficult time putting precise ranges on utg+1 and sb, since the shove by utg+1 is a little odd with a cripple in the bb and a huge stack in the sb, so , again, for simplicity i'll assume their ranges are similar.

that being stipulated, if hero folds, sb wins 50% of the time putting hero itm and utg+1 wins 50% of the time doubling up and leaving hero with 543 chips after he posts the next hand. his chance of cashing at this point is close to zero.

therefore hero's equity of folding is $903.6 / 2 = +451.80 hence , the logic of folding.

but let's explore what happens if hero decides to call. 80% of the time he loses and bubbles.

20% of the time he wins and his stack moves up to 16,329 chips and he is still alive.

of the 20% of the time his cards hold up, 50% of that time the sb wins the side pot and utg+1 bubbles and hero wins $903.60 and is still in the tourney with 16,329 chips and can possibly move up. the other 50% of that time, utg+1 will win the side pot and there will still be 19 left with hero with 16,329 chips, still alive, but with zero monies. so hero's immeadiate equity of calling equals $903.60 x 10% = $90.36. obv that folding is better than calling by $451.80 - $90.36 = $361.44.

but that's not the whole story. the 20% of the time hero calls and wins the show down, he not only gets the cash equity, but 16,329 chips that may enable him to win a lot more money with 18 or 19 players left. how much money would hero have to win to make calling = folding ???

if x equals the equlibrium point in dollars that hero needs to win with his 16,329 chips the 20% of the time he wins the showdown to make equity of folding = equity of calling then .8($0) + .2($X) = $351.44 or x = $1,807.44

so, if i didn't unmercifully bollox this math up, if apestyles calls and the 20% of the time his hand holds up, if he can win $1,807.44 with the 16,329 chips he has, then calling is just as good as folding.

can apestyles take 5.5 bb's and move up substantially with 18 or 19 players left ?? i don't know the structure of the payouts, but at least 2 players at his table will have around 20k in chips, so it.s's not out of the question for a top player.........

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

1) Why do you assign UTG+1 and SB similar ranges?

2) He will very, very rarely win $1,807.44 with 5BBs. That is probably 9th or 8th place money.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

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quite a std lay ape

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standard or sexually transmitted disease?

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

he's talking about "laying apes" so i assume the latter ???

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

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1) Why do you assign UTG+1 and SB similar ranges?

2) He will very, very rarely win $1,807.44 with 5BBs. That is probably 9th or 8th place money.

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1.... because i'm not very smart and it makes the math easy.
seriously reads would be helpful. what hands would you cram in this spot with 4 players remaining and sb with 7 times your stack. sb could have a real hand, or just be flyswatting.

2.... for the record... i'm not advocating calling. i just thought with everyone saying easy fold, i would be interesting to try and quantify what conditions it would take to make it a call.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

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quite a std lay ape

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standard or sexually transmitted disease?

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nh

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

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so, if i didn't unmercifully bollox this math up, if apestyles calls and the 20% of the time his hand holds up, if he can win $1,807.44 with the 16,329 chips he has, then calling is just as good as folding.

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Good job on the analysis. That's exactly how you should analyze the situation (we can debate ranges, but the process is right).

The only process mistake you make is highlighted above. The question isn't whether he CAN win that much with the amount of chips he has, it's WILL he win that much ON AVERAGE. 'Can' implies whether it's possible, and it certainly is...but the amount he will win on average with that stack is approximately his ICM equity and that should be much less than the number you posted (but requires payouts to actually calculate).

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

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What goggles said... I'd fold a realllllllllly wide range here. Like AK is probably a fold.

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Do you fold the SB too? You have only a few hands until you are anted out. I certainly am not folding a real hand here, and I am not sure the situation in OP is a fold.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

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so, if i didn't unmercifully bollox this math up, if apestyles calls and the 20% of the time his hand holds up, if he can win $1,807.44 with the 16,329 chips he has, then calling is just as good as folding.

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Good job on the analysis. That's exactly how you should analyze the situation (we can debate ranges, but the process is right).

The only process mistake you make is highlighted above. The question isn't whether he CAN win that much with the amount of chips he has, it's WILL he win that much ON AVERAGE. 'Can' implies whether it's possible, and it certainly is...but the amount he will win on average with that stack is approximately his ICM equity and that should be much less than the number you posted (but requires payouts to actually calculate).

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without question, you are correct that the question really is how will he do if he calls.

i think this question is quite interesting as it brings more factors into play that are on the surface. for instance, how does hero evaluate his skillset against the remaining players ? what are the distribution of the remaining stacks? what is the payout structure?

in a situation such as this, which looks like a very easy fold, an above average player if he had an additional 1500 chips might be correct in calling. had he 7300 chips rather than ~ 5800, this might be a reasonable call and that's sort of counter-intuitive.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

[ QUOTE ]
reading this thread it seems that the obvious answer is the correct one, that hero should fold. just for the hell of it i fooled around with the numbers and came up with some curious/interesting results.

first, i screwed around with poker stove an tried to find hero's equity against various ranges of utg+1 and sb if hero should call. for instance, if utg+1 has exactly AA and sb has exactly KK, hero has 17% equity. if utg+1 and sb both moved in with top 10%, hero's equity is 21.6%. with this data, for the sake of simplicity assume hero has about 20% equity vs any reasonable ranges.

quite frankly, i have a difficult time putting precise ranges on utg+1 and sb, since the shove by utg+1 is a little odd with a cripple in the bb and a huge stack in the sb, so , again, for simplicity i'll assume their ranges are similar.

that being stipulated, if hero folds, sb wins 50% of the time putting hero itm and utg+1 wins 50% of the time doubling up and leaving hero with 543 chips after he posts the next hand. his chance of cashing at this point is close to zero.

therefore hero's equity of folding is $903.6 / 2 = +451.80 hence , the logic of folding.

but let's explore what happens if hero decides to call. 80% of the time he loses and bubbles.

20% of the time he wins and his stack moves up to 16,329 chips and he is still alive.

of the 20% of the time his cards hold up, 50% of that time the sb wins the side pot and utg+1 bubbles and hero wins $903.60 and is still in the tourney with 16,329 chips and can possibly move up. the other 50% of that time, utg+1 will win the side pot and there will still be 19 left with hero with 16,329 chips, still alive, but with zero monies. so hero's immeadiate equity of calling equals $903.60 x 10% = $90.36. obv that folding is better than calling by $451.80 - $90.36 = $361.44.

but that's not the whole story. the 20% of the time hero calls and wins the show down, he not only gets the cash equity, but 16,329 chips that may enable him to win a lot more money with 18 or 19 players left. how much money would hero have to win to make calling = folding ???

if x equals the equlibrium point in dollars that hero needs to win with his 16,329 chips the 20% of the time he wins the showdown to make equity of folding = equity of calling then .8($0) + .2($X) = $351.44 or x = $1,807.44

so, if i didn't unmercifully bollox this math up, if apestyles calls and the 20% of the time his hand holds up, if he can win $1,807.44 with the 16,329 chips he has, then calling is just as good as folding.

can apestyles take 5.5 bb's and move up substantially with 18 or 19 players left ?? i don't know the structure of the payouts, but at least 2 players at his table will have around 20k in chips, so it.s's not out of the question for a top player.........

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If hero folds they still have a non-zero chance of cashing. Saying it's zero is really innaccurate, you just have to double up one or two times to get back in it, or hope for a bust on another table in the next few hands, all of which is very possible.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

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for instance, how does hero evaluate his pushbotting skillz against the remaining players?

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Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

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If hero folds they still have a non-zero chance of cashing. Saying it's zero is really innaccurate, you just have to double up one or two times to get back in it, or hope for a bust on another table in the next few hands, all of which is very possible.

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without question, you are correct that my assuming hero has zero chance to cash if left with 1800 chips. is not precise. clearly, he has some chance to cash , even with 11% of the shortest stack left in the tourney. i used zero to simplify the math.

realistically, does hero have a 10% chance to cash w/1800 chips.... maybe , on a good day. if so the crux of the math is reasonably valid.

my attempt here was to show that the intuitive reasoning of fold was probably correct, but had hero's stack been just a little larger (where winning would give him a stack ~22,000) then he would have a reasonable chance to reach the $1,807 in equity he needed to make calling a reasonable option.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

My analysis is that hero has about a 22% of winning the hand if he calls and about a 57% chance someone busts if he folds.

If hero folds, his expectation is about $1.1K when the raiser busts. When the raiser wins, hero can call in the SB or fold and hope someone busts before he is anted out. Let's say his expectation is $400 when the raiser wins. So his overall expectation is about $800 by folding.

If we assume hero's expectation is $3K when he wins the hand, his expectation is $660 by calling.

So I would say this is a fold, but I would call with any ace, any pp, any suited connector, all but the worst kings, and some other high card hands and suited gappers.

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

seems like everyone thinks it's a fold, i wouldv called. daaamn.

seriously tho, i don't trust the opinions in this thread thaaat much...can baltostar come and set us straight?

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

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seems like everyone thinks it's a fold, i wouldv called. daaamn.

seriously tho, i don't trust the opinions in this thread thaaat much...can baltostar come and set us straight?

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luckychewy is a [censored] superstar [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

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seems like everyone thinks it's a fold, i wouldv called instantly, so fast i might break another mouse daaamn.


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Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

I really dont think its an easy or standard laydown. Folding getting infinite:1 preflop is never really easy for me especially when folding basically forfeits your chances of winning. I did forget to mention that SB's range is way wide (as is the original shover, bryn kenney), hes been a total psycho, called a 15 bb reshove with T8s etc.

I pokerstoved my hand vs. some reasonable ranges and have about 23 percent equity vs. them. I'm getting around 7:1 which means in any non bubble situations I call with an uno card and a napkin. I think its close but probably correct to fold. If I fold I get into the money around 54-57 percent of the time, if I call I get nothing around 77 percent of the time and a 17k stack 23 percent. I dont really know how to calculate how valuable a 17k stack is and how often I will get 9th or better - I'm only familiar with ICM with fewer payouts. Intuitively, I doubt I will finish 9th+ anywhere near enough of the time with a 17k stack to make up for the 57 percent of the time I make the money by folding no matter how good I am at "pushbotting".

Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
 

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I doubt I will finish 9th+ anywhere near enough of the time with a 17k stack to make up for the 57 percent of the time I make the money by folding no matter how good I am at "pushbotting".

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bingo