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-   -   weird donk (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=557382)

NinaWilliams 11-29-2007 05:27 PM

weird donk
 
Villain is loose and stupid. Hes made some awful bluffs and will bet when checked to, but it also pretty passive in general.

Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $10/$20
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9.5SB, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6.25BB, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG folds.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, Hero

numbnuts007 11-29-2007 05:41 PM

Re: weird donk
 
I usually just call here. I like to try to punish my opponents for making bets like this, but too often it will open you up to a reraise with the worst hand, or he'll just fold to your raise anyway.

Carmine 11-29-2007 05:57 PM

Re: weird donk
 
Do you know what his range is with that PFR. Will he call a raise with Ax

Gib 11-29-2007 06:52 PM

Re: weird donk
 
Without knowing he is likely to bluff/call I can't do anything other than call. A4 is a big possibility if he is a fish, but also if he's stupid I wouldn't put it passed him to have either 55 or a 2! There of course is a flipside that he may be stupid enough to bet/call UI K or he thinks he is value betting A hi.

Scorcho 11-29-2007 07:36 PM

Re: weird donk
 
If he's pretty passive in general we can throw out the possibility that he's raising A4 UTG, no?

This bet always feels like an AT-AK that swung and missed all streets but I usually just call this river as he'll either fold or re-raise you more than simply call your raise.

Gib 11-29-2007 07:43 PM

Re: weird donk
 
[ QUOTE ]
If he's pretty passive in general we can throw out the possibility that he's raising A4 UTG, no?


[/ QUOTE ]
villain is BB

DrVanNostrin 11-29-2007 08:06 PM

Re: weird donk
 
It is possible that he has a monster and didn't want to knock out UTG, so I don't like raising. If it was HU the whole way I'd raise. But just call here.

Eraserhead 11-29-2007 09:45 PM

Re: weird donk
 
To me it looks like it could be A high thinking "Oh, the board double-paired, I gotz the nutz", but that's maybe only true for a bad player at 1/2 where I hang about. That player would then call a raise with his A high.

"Villain is loose and stupid. Hes made some awful bluffs..." Raise. If he hasn't 3-bet stupidely, I guess folding to a 3-bet should be in order. I'd call though, and hate myself for raising in the first place.

Romulet 11-29-2007 10:04 PM

Re: weird donk
 
It means he has a 4(or some wierd straight). You have to call though! I get it all the time when, especially when the bottom card pairs on the river and then they donk you, you know they just hit their 5 outer but you have to call.
It's even worse when you 3 bet preflop with aa and the bottom card pairs on the river then the donk ckeckraises when the bottom card pairs. You know he has it but you have to call.

sweetjazz 11-29-2007 10:25 PM

Re: weird donk
 
My default used to be to raise here because I would get paid off by a ton of worse hands. But as the games have gotten a bit tougher, you're beat here more often than you're getting called by worse, so just call unless you have specific reads based on his previous bluffs.

Also, I don't think this is a weird donk. A loose passive player could easily have played 4x like this. It's not like he donked a 9h river, where you'd have a fist-pump raise.

bobhalford 11-29-2007 10:28 PM

Re: weird donk
 
I have no idea what to do. If I was at the table I would just call. However, he may be betting 88 for fear that you will check behind AK, or perhaps he's just bluffing a busted diamond draw and isn't paying off. He could easily have A4 too. I'm not sure it matters much but I imagine you could raise and fold to a 3-bet. I just hate raise/fold plays in general which is why I just call here.

TheHip41 11-29-2007 11:59 PM

Re: weird donk
 
this is a really easy call

SuperUberBob 11-30-2007 12:17 AM

Re: weird donk
 
I hate a raise/fold here. Pretty easy call. Lots you beat here.

rzk 11-30-2007 12:48 AM

Re: weird donk
 
ok, i realize most people like a call here, so i feel like a donk, but i still think this is a raise/fold to 3bet. i think his line is most consistent with a pair of 5's or pp that knows you will call with A high because the board is paired. in addition, he can easily make a stupid value/bluff bet with Ax. even though he's loose, there are not that many 4's in his range.

please tell me how wrong i am.

EDIT: btw, if you raise/fold here, i think it's much better if you do it without pause. he'll be less likely to attempt a weird bluff. if raise/fold is not an option (though i don't see why not), i raise/call.

vmacosta 11-30-2007 01:19 AM

Re: weird donk
 
I don't understand why you wouldn't post the pf stats.

Let's assume he is a typical 50/10/.7.Normally, it's really hard to put a guy like this on a hand. However, due to pf, you can rule out a ton of hands that would have a 2 or 4 in it. I'd put him at around {A2-A5, AQ+, 33, 66-QQ, KQ, 54s, 43s, K4s}.

So even if you do a proper discounting of the worse hands you should def raise here.

At the table I would raise lightning quick; I'm pretty surprised you all don't--maybe I'm missing something.

NinaWilliams 11-30-2007 01:24 AM

Re: weird donk
 
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why you wouldn't post the pf stats.


[/ QUOTE ]

I didnt have them yet. Ive seen him limp almost every hand and he showed down an open limped J6s from the HJ. I also saw him bluff flop, check turn, then bluff again on the river.

FlopYouDead 11-30-2007 01:28 AM

Re: weird donk
 
If he's good/tricky enough to think bet/3 after catching the 4 he's good enough to fold anything else when raised.

If he's just a typical small stakes player it's a poor blocking bet and an easy raise.

I think it's read dependant and with your read charge him.

rzk 11-30-2007 02:03 AM

Re: weird donk
 
[ QUOTE ]


So even if you do a proper discounting of the worse hands you should def raise here.

At the table I would raise lightning quick; I'm pretty surprised you all don't--maybe I'm missing something.

[/ QUOTE ]

thank god i'm not crazy [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

sweetjazz 11-30-2007 02:58 AM

Re: weird donk
 
Do any of the river raisers advocate calling a 3bet? For those that don't advocate calling the 3-bet, how often do you actually fold to 3bets in such spots at the table?

This is more curiousity on my part than anything else.

rzk 11-30-2007 03:19 AM

Re: weird donk
 
[ QUOTE ]
Do any of the river raisers advocate calling a 3bet? For those that don't advocate calling the 3-bet, how often do you actually fold to 3bets in such spots at the table?


[/ QUOTE ]

all the time. that's not to say i think it's necessarily correct. but if we have a close call/fold decision that doesn't mean we shouldn't raise in the first place.

milesdyson 11-30-2007 03:22 AM

Re: weird donk
 
but

do you really think it is close call/fold though

rzk 11-30-2007 03:27 AM

Re: weird donk
 
if i instaraise and he still 3bets, no, i don't think it's close.

if i take my sweet time to raise and he 3bets, i start scratching my head.

what do others think?

milesdyson 11-30-2007 03:30 AM

Re: weird donk
 
i think waiting maybe makes a 1% difference overall in terms of how often you're good

rzk 11-30-2007 03:34 AM

Re: weird donk
 
hmm, you think instaraising doesn't change the probability that he will attempt a 3bet bluff? that's not a rhetorical question, i really want to know.

milesdyson 11-30-2007 03:38 AM

Re: weird donk
 
fwiw i thought you were talkin about it the other way around. when i said 1% i meant i think you're good more often when you wait than when you instantly raise. i think most people see instant raises as strong and delayed raises as possibly weak, ie. "HMM LET ME SEE...... HM... OK I GUESS I RAISE LOL."

TheHip41 11-30-2007 03:43 AM

Re: weird donk
 
[ QUOTE ]
if i instaraise and he still 3bets, no, i don't think it's close.

if i take my sweet time to raise and he 3bets, i start scratching my head.

what do others think?

[/ QUOTE ]


i still think raise folding JJ on a 54422 board to someone who sucks at poker can't be a valid line here.

If you do raise this river, it's because you can confidently call a 3bet.

This guy can have a 4 here, he can have a slow played better hand, but the hands you are getting value from are A=x

I just think there aren't enough bet/calling hands for the villain here.

rzk 11-30-2007 04:36 AM

Re: weird donk
 
[ QUOTE ]
fwiw i thought you were talkin about it the other way around. when i said 1% i meant i think you're good more often when you wait than when you instantly raise. i think most people see instant raises as strong and delayed raises as possibly weak, ie. "HMM LET ME SEE...... HM... OK I GUESS I RAISE LOL."

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree that people see instaraises as strong, that's why i want to instaraise this so i can fold to a 3bet more comfortably. but you think an instaraise will not reduce the chance that he'll 3-bet bluff by more than 1%?

btw, what's your line in this hand? call, r/c, or r/f?

milesdyson 11-30-2007 04:50 AM

Re: weird donk
 
i just call because i expect to hear from 5x earlier and i realize he can be bluffing here but raising doesn't gain anything in that case

Oink 11-30-2007 06:33 AM

Re: weird donk
 
I end up calling here for the reasons Miles mentioned. If the board wasnt double paired I'd raise.

When I raise I fold to a 3-bet without worrying about it. I use to call and win like never.

People grossly overestimate how much even retards bet/3-bet as a bluff on the river. I mean you see it. But its closer to 0.5% than the 8-10% or whatever you need to call here.

rzk 11-30-2007 07:35 AM

Re: weird donk
 
[ QUOTE ]
I end up calling here for the reasons Miles mentioned. If the board wasnt double paired I'd raise.

When I raise I fold to a 3-bet without worrying about it. I use to call and win like never.

People grossly overestimate how much even retards bet/3-bet as a bluff on the river. I mean you see it. But its closer to 0.5% than the 8-10% or whatever you need to call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the board double-pairing shouldn't make us less inclined to raise. i really see the villain intending to just call down with some weakish pair, but now that he sees the board pairing he decides to donk knowing that (a) it's not easy for you to raise with a better hand since you will now be afraid of a full house (b) you will call with A high. i also see the villain making a stupid donk with A high here knowing that he's now chopping with any other A high.

TheHip41 11-30-2007 07:39 AM

Re: weird donk
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I end up calling here for the reasons Miles mentioned. If the board wasnt double paired I'd raise.

When I raise I fold to a 3-bet without worrying about it. I use to call and win like never.

People grossly overestimate how much even retards bet/3-bet as a bluff on the river. I mean you see it. But its closer to 0.5% than the 8-10% or whatever you need to call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the board double-pairing shouldn't make us less inclined to raise. i really see the villain intending to just call down with some weakish pair, but now that he sees the board pairing he decides to donk knowing that (a) it's not easy for you to raise with a better hand since you will now be afraid of a full house (b) you will call with A high. i also see the villain making a stupid donk with A high here knowing that he's now chopping with any other A high.

[/ QUOTE ]


the flop is 522, turn 4, river 4.

what pair did said villian c/c twice with that he now decides to bet, 77, TT, 33?

He can have A4, and 34.

You havea good hand, but its not good enough to raise here.

rzk 11-30-2007 07:43 AM

Re: weird donk
 
he could easily play 33-TT this way, with TT being somewhat less likely. basically, i more or less agree with vma's range, excluding JJ-QQ and adding a bunch of 5x hands like 65s, 75s.

Oink 11-30-2007 07:47 AM

Re: weird donk
 
I think all of the hands in vma's range are possible but I also think he has 43 like 20 times for each time he has KQ.

If you are not prepared to fold to a 3-bet I honestly cant see how this is a raise.

If you think you can fold to a raise I like it a lot more and I think its fairly close

Hobbs. 11-30-2007 08:20 AM

Re: weird donk
 
btw, nina the new poker bob?

rzk 11-30-2007 09:13 AM

Re: weird donk
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think all of the hands in vma's range are possible but I also think he has 43 like 20 times for each time he has KQ.

If you are not prepared to fold to a 3-bet I honestly cant see how this is a raise.

If you think you can fold to a raise I like it a lot more and I think its fairly close

[/ QUOTE ]

sure, but all the 5x hands and the pp's are on at least an equal footing with 43s - and i'd say even more likely. Ax's hands are there too, discounted of course, maybe to 25-40%.

and yes, i agree, i think you can confidently fold to a 3bet.

maxter 11-30-2007 09:17 AM

Re: weird donk
 
BTW, I've seen fish taking c/c c/c donk line with a monster a lot (in smaller stakes though). They love to stick around till the river.

I'd call, if I've been playing with him a good amount and I feel more comfortable with his ranges when he bets big streets I can raise/fold or raise/call.

TheHip41 11-30-2007 09:59 AM

Re: weird donk
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think all of the hands in vma's range are possible but I also think he has 43 like 20 times for each time he has KQ.

If you are not prepared to fold to a 3-bet I honestly cant see how this is a raise.

If you think you can fold to a raise I like it a lot more and I think its fairly close

[/ QUOTE ]

sure, but all the 5x hands and the pp's are on at least an equal footing with 43s - and i'd say even more likely. Ax's hands are there too, discounted of course, maybe to 25-40%.

and yes, i agree, i think you can confidently fold to a 3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]


please stop taking lines that involve folding JJ on a 52244 board in a big pot versus a retarded opponent. seriously

Wolfram 11-30-2007 10:15 AM

Re: weird donk
 
[ QUOTE ]
please stop taking lines that involve folding JJ on a 52244 board in a big pot versus a retarded opponent. seriously

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, wtf!

If he's retarded enough to bet-call A-hi or 33 I can't trust him (or myself) enough to raise fold.

I just call.

rzk 11-30-2007 10:22 AM

Re: weird donk
 
to those who say don't fold. if he 3-bets you, how often do you think you have him beat?

NinaWilliams 11-30-2007 04:35 PM

Re: weird donk
 
[ QUOTE ]
btw, nina the new poker bob?

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]


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