Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

Villain just sat down about an orbit ago, no history, total unknown to me.. What's your river line? Anything about the rest of the hand?

Everest Poker Limit Hold'em, $0.50/$1 (HH Converter by Kreatief)

MP3 ($95.50) (Hero)
CO ($114.30)
Button ($97.80)
SB ($224.00)
BB ($129.20)
MP2 ($87.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>,

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( 11.5BB )
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $9</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>,

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ( 29.5BB )
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $23</font>, CO calls,

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( 75.5BB )
Hero?

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

i c/c here more often then value betting

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

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i c/c here more often then value betting

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this makes no sense

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

? what makes no sense about it... do u know what a value bet is?

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

c/c sucks

I prob just bet 40 and give him the rest if he raises, praying he has AT. Eh, maybe I shove.

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

bet, c/c sux, i guess fold is he shoves...meh

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

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bet, c/c sux, i guess fold is he shoves...meh

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We can't fold if he shoves because we would be getting like million to one odds. So I guess bet/call. Checking is just too weak, because he could have so many other hands than the flush.

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

true, i'm being dumb and not reading stack sizes properly

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

Check/call is the worst possible line on the river.

I like a value bet of around 60% pot, and crying call if he shoves.

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

Any significant bet on the river will put you all-in so imo you have two choices: check/fold or shove on the river.

What would I do? I would check/fold.

The turn bet was pretty large yet he just calls, like he fears nothing. Why? He's displaying strength through his calls so it's either a call bluff (to the river..?) or he's actually got a good hand. I say assume he's rational and lay down the hand when facing a large river bet. How often are we ahead here? If he checks it down then all the better. The pot is a good size.

I have one question though - how did the villain buy in for more than $100 at the .50/$1 level? You said he hasn't made any moves yet he is above $100. What gives?

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

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Check/call is the worst possible line on the river.

I like a value bet of around 60% pot, and crying call if he shoves.

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I think you would get more folds from villain using a shove on the river - hero has around 60BB behind and the pot is at 75+BB and villain would be wondering why we didn't put it all in ("maybe my hand _is_ good")

That is, if you plan on calling a raise anyway and putting it all-in, why not push and get some possible better hands to fold?

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

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? what makes no sense about it... do u know what a value bet is?

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yea, afraid u dont though

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

Go all in.

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

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Any significant bet on the river will put you all-in so imo you have two choices: check/fold or shove on the river.

What would I do? I would check/fold.

The turn bet was pretty large yet he just calls, like he fears nothing. Why? He's displaying strength through his calls so it's either a call bluff (to the river..?) or he's actually got a good hand. I say assume he's rational and lay down the hand when facing a large river bet. How often are we ahead here? If he checks it down then all the better. The pot is a good size.

I have one question though - how did the villain buy in for more than $100 at the .50/$1 level? You said he hasn't made any moves yet he is above $100. What gives?

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I really hope that you missread the board and didn't see that we have a SET!!!!

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

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Any significant bet on the river will put you all-in so imo you have two choices: check/fold or shove on the river.

What would I do? I would check/fold.

The turn bet was pretty large yet he just calls, like he fears nothing. Why? He's displaying strength through his calls so it's either a call bluff (to the river..?) or he's actually got a good hand. I say assume he's rational and lay down the hand when facing a large river bet. How often are we ahead here? If he checks it down then all the better. The pot is a good size.

I have one question though - how did the villain buy in for more than $100 at the .50/$1 level? You said he hasn't made any moves yet he is above $100. What gives?

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I really hope that you missread the board and didn't see that we have a SET!!!!

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Yes we do have a set. On a board that gives sets the shivers. Possible flush + possible straight + villain smooth calling significant bets. Now we can read the writing on the wall or we can _hope_ we have the best hand and push. Myself, given NO reads, would check/fold and _sometimes_ push. It depends on the board but those are my two options. I'm not ruling out a river push, but having a set here doesn't mean we have the nuts so I'd play it accordingly.

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

you only have $60 left just shove.

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

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Check/call is the worst possible line on the river.

I like a value bet of around 60% pot, and crying call if he shoves.

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I think you would get more folds from villain using a shove on the river - hero has around 60BB behind and the pot is at 75+BB and villain would be wondering why we didn't put it all in ("maybe my hand _is_ good")

That is, if you plan on calling a raise anyway and putting it all-in, why not push and get some possible better hands to fold?

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lol at getting a better hand to fold. if we shove its for value only. in the moment i probably just shove but I think villian folds hands to a shove that he calls w/ to a bet like $35 or so, so i like bet small and crying call if he shoves.

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

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Check/call is the worst possible line on the river.

I like a value bet of around 60% pot, and crying call if he shoves.

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I think you would get more folds from villain using a shove on the river - hero has around 60BB behind and the pot is at 75+BB and villain would be wondering why we didn't put it all in ("maybe my hand _is_ good")

That is, if you plan on calling a raise anyway and putting it all-in, why not push and get some possible better hands to fold?

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lol at getting a better hand to fold. if we shove its for value only. in the moment i probably just shove but I think villian folds hands to a shove that he calls w/ to a bet like $35 or so, so i like bet small and crying call if he shoves.

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That's a benefit of the shove, not the reason. I was saying that in response to the check/call option and you could get an over set or a straight to fold on this obviously scary board. So sucket trebeck.

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

i'm all for the c/c route. i don't want to fold this hand and villian will bluff at this card a lot.

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

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i'm all for the c/c route. i don't want to fold this hand and villian will bluff at this card a lot.

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What exactly would he be bluffing with?

Do people think about hand ranges before saying "check to induce bluff?"

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

You have to bet more on each street fwiw.

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

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You have to bet more on each street fwiw.

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Seriously? 9 into 11 and 23 into 29?

River: Jam says Jam so Jam.

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

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You have to bet more on each street fwiw.

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Seriously? 9 into 11 and 23 into 29?

River: Jam says Jam so Jam.

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We have the best hand on the flop and turn, like always If he is calling a 3/4 PSB, he's going to call a PSB. Then the river is even a more trivial shove.

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

This is not a good situation to be in w/ a set. Straight and flush possibilities. He hasnt raised but he has hung around. Unless he has the nuts he may not be thrilled w/ his hand so I would put out a blocking bet on the river maybe $25-30 to hopefully set the price. If you want to call that a value bet fine. If I check it might cost me the rest of my stack to find out. I would have bet more on the flop.

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

more on turn, now grit your teeth and shove. you're not going to win always, but shoving is by far the highest expectation here. most people don't even fold AJ to me here

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

Shove. Make him decide if he wants to call with AT, T8, QJ, and a bunch of other one-pair hands.

C/c is terrible. You are basically going to let him check down all his one-pair hands, bet his flushes and straights.

If he has a flush/straight taking the c/c line and the shove line have the same EV. Mise well give him a non-zero% chance to actually put money in with worse hands to balance that out.

If you need a flush to value-shove here than villain's going to have a pretty easy time playing in position vs. you.

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

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You have to bet more on each street fwiw.

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yeah as I look at it now it would set up a perfect size for a river shove

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

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i'm all for the c/c route. i don't want to fold this hand and villian will bluff at this card a lot.

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What exactly would he be bluffing with?

Do people think about hand ranges before saying "check to induce bluff?"

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A nine could have stuck around and maybe a reluctant ten who called turn hoping we were bluffing the ace (which is never calling the river) and two pair or better raises flop so to maybe call with a hand we have beat he would have to have spiked aces up (and not have raised turn...) or queens up and is willing to call a river shove on that board - pretty optimistic. I honestly think all plays r very close as he has 3 hands IMO, a nine, maybe aces up or maayybe queens up or a flush draw, seeing as both aces up and queens up r unlikely (both to have been spiked and in flat calling aces up on turn) and that a flush draw is a much bigger part of his range, I c/f, I dont expect villain to shove a busted nine too too often with less than a psb left (btw thats what is induced to shove). Also, if i am going for value I prefer betting smaller and reluctantly calling a shove because a shove is almost always a flush and a smaller bet could be a thin value bet with a weaker two pair than a10, but i still prefer c/f, doubt i would have in the moment though. O ya, and def bet more on flop (10) and turn (25-26)

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

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i'm all for the c/c route. i don't want to fold this hand and villian will bluff at this card a lot.

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winner

Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
 

i don't think there's a question of whether to bet or check this river. the question is should we bet like 1/2-2/3 our remaining stack or just shove. thoughts?