Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
Can anyone tell me how unlikely this is?
This comes from almost exactly 2/3 of 5-10 and 1/3 of 10-20. This really feels up there for futility to me. Yes I'm running on average 75 buyins below expectation in less then 75,000 hands. http://i227.photobucket.com/albums/d...r/mynetrun.jpg |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
sick
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
omg sooicide!!
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
Mine probably looks worse than this if i kept track.
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
Can anyone tell me if poker EV will work for cryptologic sites?
I cant seem to get it to work |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
Well, the last 4 month or so (around 100k hands) I am experiensing something similar. I have been playing 2/4NL as a steaking deal and ran about 25-30 buy-inns below expectation in 50k hands or so. And It really felt that I was getting screwed by setups way more then the other way. As a result - massive swings and lots of stress both for me and the steaker.
And I was grinding 50NL for 35k hands or so, with a total of 15 buy-inns below in luck and sick, sick setups. And around 15k hands of random s&g's/shortstacking/etc, with about -10 in allin luck. So yeah life is pretty [censored]... |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
can you morans please stop talking about yourselves? this is mastr's thread ok
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
p.s. [censored] sick bro!
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
man u lost 90k in 75k hands? you must be bad!!!!
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
seriously though you need coaching or something????????
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
obv just kidding that just sucks
just concentrate on how you are so due |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
spam much gp.
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
[ QUOTE ]
spam much gp. [/ QUOTE ] short answer:no |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
[ QUOTE ]
spam much gp. [/ QUOTE ] long answer: hell no |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
there's almost no question mine is worse, don't mean to take away from your unfortunateness op, but i can't get a lot of hands to load into my ev grapher
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
aejones i can 100% guarantee u i run worse than u. oh i also have no proof. but 100% guarantee though
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
Argh. That graph shows nothing, you need to have the blue line too.
The graph could be the result of bad luck, or equally that you keep putting the money in as an underdog. Running 75 buyins under expectation is pretty sick though. |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
[ QUOTE ]
Argh. That graph shows nothing, you need to have the blue line too. [/ QUOTE ] OP's graph used the "net run" line. It shows the difference between his red and blue lines. |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
I'm calling shenanigans on this graph. I'm betting OP created a separate database and exported to it only the hands which he lost, thus guaranteeing bad luck. He has used the net run graph to conceal the fact that the blue line is also hugely negative.
Edit: OK not only the hands that he lost since the graph goes positive at the beginning. But it'll be something like that. |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
this is gross.
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
disgusting bl.
=/ |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
this sucks hard
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
i don't believe anyone can run this bad, i'm with ChrisV
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Argh. That graph shows nothing, you need to have the blue line too. [/ QUOTE ] OP's graph used the "net run" line. It shows the difference between his red and blue lines. [/ QUOTE ] Ty, I didn't know about that feature. |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
Which site is this?
It seems super unlikely you ran this bad w/o errors in pokerEV, i dunno. |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
This is all full tilt with some stars, I can switch to the standard blue green format if you guys really want, though there's really no difference. No errors in the pokerEV, have checked multiple times.
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
actual vs expected cuz why the hell not
Swongs, they are one thing??? http://i227.photobucket.com/albums/d...edWinnings.jpg |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone tell me if poker EV will work for cryptologic sites? I cant seem to get it to work [/ QUOTE ] check use all sites |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
ugh...
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e3...riday-damn.jpg
Also, good use of the word "mondo." Totally tubular! Cowabunga! |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
Heh. Well if you didn't fake up the graph, then God truly hates and despises you.
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
I played AYSO soccer when I was a kid. Mondo can only mean one thing:
http://www.jelsert.com/images/products/main_mondo.jpg |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
[censored] man, thats rough - wtf
what site? |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
mastr I really dont want to [censored] all over your beat or anything...
But it looks like there is some error that misestimates your equity. You can see the difference between red and green basically constantly increases. For example, if the error amounted to 1ptbb/100 difference, then it would constantly increase. That, or God has decided to take a massive crap all over you. |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
no its been separately checked and everything, its me being massively crapped on.
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
blue green red graph plz
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Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
[ QUOTE ]
This is all full tilt with some stars, I can switch to the standard blue green format if you guys really want, though there's really no difference. No errors in the pokerEV, have checked multiple times. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not aware of any errors, but damn it looks suspicious. [ QUOTE ] Can anyone tell me how unlikely this is? [/ QUOTE ] I ran it through a binomial calculator(java). Assuming a full buyin for each all-in and average 50% equity(i.e. 0 expectation), the probability of running bad in 75 extra all-ins is around 0.00005, or 1 in 20,000 [n=1500, p=0.5, x is fewer than 675]. Include the effects of variable pot sizes and it's probably around 1 in 10,000 or so. In other words, a swing this big will happen to around 2-10 BBVers a year. If you have 60% average equity instead of 50 going in, the swing becomes more unlikely...about 1 in 30K vs 1 in 20K. This is just an estimate (you can't calculate it without doing a sim on your exact equities), but it's in the same ballpark of probability. Assuming it's not an error, this is just [censored] brutal man. |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This is all full tilt with some stars, I can switch to the standard blue green format if you guys really want, though there's really no difference. No errors in the pokerEV, have checked multiple times. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not aware of any errors, but damn it looks suspicious. [ QUOTE ] Can anyone tell me how unlikely this is? [/ QUOTE ] I ran it through a binomial calculator(java). Assuming a full buyin for each all-in and average 50% equity(i.e. 0 expectation), the probability of running bad in 75 extra all-ins is around 0.00005, or 1 in 20,000 [n=1500, p=0.5, x is fewer than 675]. Include the effects of variable pot sizes and it's probably around 1 in 10,000 or so. In other words, a swing this big will happen to around 2-10 BBVers a year. If you have 60% average equity instead of 50 going in, the swing becomes more unlikely...about 1 in 30K vs 1 in 20K. Assuming it's not an error, this is just [censored] brutal man. [/ QUOTE ] Now that is a good post, statistics ftw. |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
holy crap thats unlucky
Whenever I see this I always wonder about all the players here that never show how lucky they run and dont post it cuz they treasure their fanboys too much |
Re: Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky
hey u play the game
dont ask us |
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