Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

Jerry Narron was fired Sunday night. (Link) and nobody here bothered to post about it...because the Reds suck. They've replaced him with a scout, Pete Mackanin (Link)

I don't really like this move...Somebody has to take the blame for the Reds terrible season, but I don't think it should have been Narron. Not much he could do with the bullpen he had.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

FWIW, I was thinking about posting about it but never got around to it.
But yeah, I came to the same conclusion you did. Nobody seems to give a crap about these guys.

Obviously the bullpen has been pretty terrible.
But I'm not entirely unconvinced that this wasn't the right move.
New direction for these guys couldn't hurt. And the natives in Cincinnati were getting restless.

Crazy that on June 6 last year we made a road trip to St. Louis where the Reds swept the Cards to move into a tie for 1st. And the Reds were right in that race into Sept.

That trade last July really seemed to kill them.
Freaking Gary Majewski. Arrrrgh.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

Seriously, honestly, before I read this thread, I didn't know. And I watch sportscenter most days and like to be kept up to speed on sports.

I guess I wasn't really paying attention.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

i'm really hoping that the reds become the new cubs. they're showing signs.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

i just hope the giants can win two of these three games

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

I had David Weathers on my fantasy team for awhile. This basically made me a Reds fan since I was rooting for them to take a lead and close it out. But something goes wrong every night. Sometimes they don't hit. Sometimes the starter gets shelled. Sometimes he pitches alright, but the middle relief blows it. Then Narron started ignoring the bullpen and just leaving in his starters for 549 pitches. How could he possibly go wrong doing that? Strangely, that didn't work either. Bronson Arroyo's left arm fell off. Yeah, it's frustrating rooting for the Reds.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

Man thats odd. I figured getting relievers from the Nats would have sured that bullpen up..

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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Seriously, honestly, before I read this thread, I didn't know. And I watch sportscenter most days and like to be kept up to speed on sports.

I guess I wasn't really paying attention.

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It got totally buried by the surprising Hargrove retirement.
ESPN was mostly running Hargrove/Narron back-to-back except that Hargrove got 5-10 minutes of story/analysis and then they would say, "Oh, BTW, Jerry Narron was fired too. They're having a press-conference Monday."

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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i'm really hoping that the reds become the new cubs. they're showing signs.

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1990 vs. 1908

Looooooong way to go.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

I can't wait to see the Reds at Shea Stadium next weekend. Ordered My Dunn T-shirt last week and my Mr. Red hat arrived today.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

A friend of mine who's a big Reds fan has been telling me for years that Narron has to go.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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i'm really hoping that the reds become the new cubs. they're showing signs.

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1990 vs. 1908

Looooooong way to go.

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lol yeah. i was mostly just referring to the fact that they're a national league team with rabid local fans and terrible management/ownership.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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A friend of mine who's a big Reds fan has been telling me for years that Narron has to go.

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How many years?
2006 was his first full season as the official manager.

Was he immedaitely complaining about him needing to go when Narron was appointed interim-manager on June 20, 2005?

That would be pretty funny.


Cincinnati Enquirer: Reds Fire Miley, Narron named interim-manager.
YTF's Friend: Down with Narron!! He needs to go!!!!!

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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YTF's Friend: Down with Narron!! He needs to go!!!!!

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i lol'd

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

OK, then it just seems like years. But all his gripes have been right on. Every time a starter would miss a start, and Narron would bring Milton out on three days rest for no reason (it's not like they were in a pennant chase, or anything), I'd get an email from my friend.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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I can't wait to see the Reds at Shea Stadium next weekend. Ordered My Dunn T-shirt last week and my Mr. Red hat arrived today.

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maybe you'll be able to trade that dunn t-shirt for a relief prospect t-shirt in a month!


i like the reds. i root for them to do well, because i like all non-bengal ohio teams to do pretty well. but they're an awful, awful team. the radio guys down here were saying stuff like "this isn't the worst team in baseball on paper, and when that's the case, you have to make a move."

uhhhh, what? this team is not good. they have pieces, and they're probably a 75 win team, not a 60 win team. but this bullpen is atrocious, and it wasn't narron that traded two starters for fungibility.

i worry that attacking krivsky is the right play, though. krivsky's done well. picking up phillips was a good move (i think that was on krivsky's watch), and josh hamilton has worked out sensationally. but that trade was absolutely inexcusable, the sort of mistake that gets a person fired in an industry with immediate accountability.

the bright side of things for reds fans is that there is an awful lot of high impact players in the minor leagues. homer bailey, despite his struggles (and control issues) and jay bruce are blue chippers, while joey votto and drew stubbs both seem quite solid. they have a couple young players in the majors in Hamilton, BP and edwin encarnacion (if they ever stop screwing around with him). the trouble is, there ain't a ton of depth there.

it would make sense for krivsky to blow up this team to a point: trade griffey for a blue chipper, get what you can for dunn and stormy. depth is what this system needs so that the next time somebody gets anxious about the bully, they look down in the system instead of trading two starters for fungibility.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

I've been looking at the Reds trade prospects in depth. I just can't see them getting a blue chipper for Griffey and whatever team takes on Dunn is going to be making the worst trade of the trade season. Still, they should be able to add a few good prospects. Since their so thin, it doesn't really matter what position.

I'm usually aggresive in calling for prospects to be in the majors, but Bailey really needs to be in AAA right now.

Bruce looks good, but still needs some work. He's whiffing far too often. He might be ready by the begining of next season, but it could be a rough ride at the begining.

I'm still not sure why Votto isn't the starting 1b.

Johnny Cueto looks like an excellent prospect right now.

Brad Salmon looks like a quadruple-A reliever, which is more than I can say for some of the guys they run out there.

This Carlos Guevara guy looks like he might be worth something. I don't know anything about him, but his stats over the last two years seem to warrant a promotion to at least AAA.

Overall, you are right, this is thin top heavy system. They NEED to move Dunn, Griffey, Lohshe, Weathers, and maybe even Harang (for a bigger package). Having Milton come off the books next season is a double bonus. You don't have to pay him AND you don't have to worry about him taking the hill.

Edited to add: Just saw in print for the first time something I've suspected for quite awhile. Homer Bailey might be injured.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

rwp,

my brother and i agree that the indians should be willing to give up chuck lofgren and someone like frankie gutierrez for griffey, which is a strong return. griffey's got 3 big selling points at the moment: 1) he's hitting real, real well (because he's real, real good when he's healthy); 2) he's healthy; 3) his contract is very very agreeable. according to ESPN, he's signed for 6.5M in 2008 with a club option for the same price in 2009.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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and whatever team takes on Dunn is going to be making the worst trade of the trade season.

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Why?

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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and whatever team takes on Dunn is going to be making the worst trade of the trade season.

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Why?

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His options expire if he is traded, and Krivsky has reportedly wanted absurd things for Dunn.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

Strange I thought this was going to be out the Queensland Reds (my home state in Australia) who just finished last in the Super 14 rugby team (14 teams from South Africa, New Zealand and Australia). But anyway go Reds.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

imitation - evidently the "Reds" pretty much universally suck.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

[ QUOTE ]
imitation - evidently the "Reds" pretty much universally suck.

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God is punishing them for having a pro-commie name. If they changed their name to "The Soaring Bald Eagles of Freedom" their fortunes would change immediately.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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and whatever team takes on Dunn is going to be making the worst trade of the trade season.

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Why?

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His options expire if he is traded, and Krivsky has reportedly wanted absurd things for Dunn.

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It's not so much that. It's that Dunn's K rate is up and his walk rate is down. If he mantains his career BABIP and HR/FB% with his current K and BB rates, he's looking at a line of something like .220/.320/.485. That's not good for what amounts to a DH.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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rwp,

my brother and i agree that the indians should be willing to give up chuck lofgren and someone like frankie gutierrez for griffey, which is a strong return. griffey's got 3 big selling points at the moment: 1) he's hitting real, real well (because he's real, real good when he's healthy); 2) he's healthy; 3) his contract is very very agreeable. according to ESPN, he's signed for 6.5M in 2008 with a club option for the same price in 2009.

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That would be excellent return for the Reds. Even if it were David Huff with Guttierez, they should probably do it.

Griffey is actually owed rougly $6.25m for the rest of this season, $12.5m in 2008 and the team has a $16.5m with $4m buyout for '09. $6.25 is deferred at 4% interest to be paid from 2009-2024. Assuming they decline to option, they'd be paying $22.75m for 1.5 years of Griffey. Since some of that is deferred, the actual value is a little less. Even if you call it $14m/yr, that's a reasonable price, but not something that's worth a top prospect.

contract details

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

rwp,

hell of a link.

sure glad espn's info is accurate. 6.25 seemed awfully low, but i figured they kinda knew what they were talking about. silly me.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

Yeah, Cot's Baseball Contracts is a must-book for all baseball fans.

There is pretty much no chance the Indians will take that trade unless the Reds absorb a ton of the salary.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

kyle,

at 6.25x2 more years it was a much more reasonable offer.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

lol @ reds being terrible, we have TORRES

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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I don't really like this move...Somebody has to take the blame for the Reds terrible season, but I don't think it should have been Narron. Not much he could do with the bullpen he had.

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The Reds have a ton of problems, but Narron was a major one. He's completely incapable of putting together a batting lineup. He'd been leading off Scott Hatteberg for a month, had used nearly 70 different lineups this season alone, regularly batted Conine at clean-up... The Reds have a pretty clear top 4 hitters (depending on who's in center), but Narron was completely incapable of figuring it out.

As bad as their bullpen is, Narron can't manage a pitching staff either. He falls in love with his "flavor-of-the-week" reliever and uses them in 5 games in a row. When he's between favorite relievers, as someone else said, he keeps the starters in 400 pitches deep (though I don't know why Arroyo's non-pitching arm should be falling off).

And then there was the incident a couple weeks ago in Oakland that should get a manager fired on the spot. Down two runs in the ninth, after his flavor-of-the-week McBeth gave up the lead, he pinch hit 0.195 OBP Juan [censored] Castro for Josh Hamilton (who was 1-2, HR, 2RBI, BB). His reasoning? They needed to get something started and Castro was 1-1 career against Alan Embree (the one hit being a double 7 years ago).

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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It's not so much that. It's that Dunn's K rate is up and his walk rate is down. If he mantains his career BABIP and HR/FB% with his current K and BB rates, he's looking at a line of something like .220/.320/.485. That's not good for what amounts to a DH.

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But his BABIP and HR/FB are both up this year. Overall, his stats this year are almost identical to his carrer-best 2004 season, though his OBP and SLG are a bit down. But that's because his FB% is down a couple points from that season, which accounts for the slight dip in those numbers (along with his decreased walk rate for OBP). Narron regularly batting him 5th, 6th, and sometimes 7th allows pitchers to go after him much more.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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The Reds have a ton of problems, but Narron was a major one. He's completely incapable of putting together a batting lineup.

...

Narron can't manage a pitching staff either.

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Whether or not these points are true, those decisions aren't likely to cost the team more than 1-3 wins a season. Now, that is a lot since you're in the absolutely terrible NL Central, but you can and should start blaming the GM for making ludicrous trades for middle relievers who aren't any good in the first place (Lopez/Kearns trade was absolutely unacceptable).

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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kyle,

at 6.25x2 more years it was a much more reasonable offer.

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Yes, without a doubt. I cannot believe ESPN had Griffey making $6.25m for one of his years in a multiyear deal - that's obviously impossible for a guy like him. If the Reds absorb $8-12mm, it would be worth dealing a prospect.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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His reasoning? They needed to get something started and Castro was 1-1 career against Alan Embree (the one hit being a double 7 years ago).

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If this is true then that's really weird.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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[ QUOTE ]
The Reds have a ton of problems, but Narron was a major one. He's completely incapable of putting together a batting lineup.

...

Narron can't manage a pitching staff either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whether or not these points are true, those decisions aren't likely to cost the team more than 1-3 wins a season. Now, that is a lot since you're in the absolutely terrible NL Central, but you can and should start blaming the GM for making ludicrous trades for middle relievers who aren't any good in the first place (Lopez/Kearns trade was absolutely unacceptable).

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With the Reds tendency to get into close games that are blown by the bullpen, the combination of those two add up to more than 1-3 games imo. I'd put it at about 7-9. Having Dunn batting 5-7th is inexcusable as he would have 5-10 more RBIs hitting cleanup.

I'm not saying Narron was their only, or even worst problem. Put to the question, I'd probably agree that Krivsky is the worst. I think if Bray can stay healthy he could develop into a decent reliever, but that trade was unacceptable. It still wouldn't be an even one if Bray does become a great reliever, let alone just a decent one. But, getting rid of Narron, even if they have bigger problems, can't be a bad thing.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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His reasoning? They needed to get something started and Castro was 1-1 career against Alan Embree (the one hit being a double 7 years ago).

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If this is true then that's really weird.

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Whether that's what was actually going through his head at the time I don't know, but that's more or less verbatim the reasoning he gave during the post-game press conference. Either way, unless Hamilton is injured, batting Castro for him in that position is indefensible. Especially when you consider he still had a much better, switch-hitting Javy Valentin to use.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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It's not so much that. It's that Dunn's K rate is up and his walk rate is down. If he mantains his career BABIP and HR/FB% with his current K and BB rates, he's looking at a line of something like .220/.320/.485. That's not good for what amounts to a DH.

[/ QUOTE ]
But his BABIP and HR/FB are both up this year. Overall, his stats this year are almost identical to his carrer-best 2004 season, though his OBP and SLG are a bit down. But that's because his FB% is down a couple points from that season, which accounts for the slight dip in those numbers (along with his decreased walk rate for OBP). Narron regularly batting him 5th, 6th, and sometimes 7th allows pitchers to go after him much more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dunn has a long career behind him and an established BABIP and HR/FB%. Barring an injury or some massive juicing, I wouldn't expect either of those stats to flucuate far from his career norm. BB% and K% tend to stablalize much quicker. Looking at his career, you see a very narrow fluctuation in those two stats. The fact that he's King at a career high pace and walking at a career low pace is a huge cause for concern.

Re: Here\'s how terrible the Reds are.
 

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[ QUOTE ]
It's not so much that. It's that Dunn's K rate is up and his walk rate is down. If he mantains his career BABIP and HR/FB% with his current K and BB rates, he's looking at a line of something like .220/.320/.485. That's not good for what amounts to a DH.

[/ QUOTE ]
But his BABIP and HR/FB are both up this year. Overall, his stats this year are almost identical to his carrer-best 2004 season, though his OBP and SLG are a bit down. But that's because his FB% is down a couple points from that season, which accounts for the slight dip in those numbers (along with his decreased walk rate for OBP). Narron regularly batting him 5th, 6th, and sometimes 7th allows pitchers to go after him much more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dunn has a long career behind him and an established BABIP and HR/FB%. Barring an injury or some massive juicing, I wouldn't expect either of those stats to flucuate far from his career norm. BB% and K% tend to stablalize much quicker. Looking at his career, you see a very narrow fluctuation in those two stats. The fact that he's King at a career high pace and walking at a career low pace is a huge cause for concern.

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I wouldn't say his BB% and K% have stabilized. His K% has been rapidly dropping over the past month and is back around his career average. He's no longer on pace to shatter his own single-season K record. His BB% has been on a small upswing, but nothing significant yet. Really, his stats are all but identical to his career-best '04 season. His OBP and SLG are suffering a bit because of the decreased BB rate, but everything else is right on par.