i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

number of all in hands: 77
total equity after money went in: $68,713.76
total money won: $49,234.87

difference: ($19,478.89)

chances of running this bad or worse: ~0.5%

POKER IS GAY. STARS IS RIGGED. FU ALL.

and yes, i calculated all this [censored] because i hate life.

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
chances of running this bad or worse: ~0.5%

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah right let's see some math

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
chances of running this bad or worse: ~0.5%

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah right let's see some math

[/ QUOTE ]





#include <stdio.h>
#include <stdlib.h>
#include <time.h>


int
main(int argc, char **argv) {

int numba = 77;

double equity[77] = {
0.5,
0.569,
0.465,
0.112,
0.189,
0.271,
0.622,
0.283,
0.452,
0.614,
0.546,
0.756,
0.912,
0.315,
0.637,
0.475,
0.092,
0.185,
0.525,
0.744,
0.67,
0.319,
0.491,
0.696,
0.634,
0.18,
0.447,
0.679,
0.264,
1,
0.746,
0.25,
0.475,
0.26,
0.809,
0.253,
0.686,
0.25,
0.04,
0.094,
0.819,
0.264,
0.447,
0,
0.882,
0.068,
0.932,
0.259,
0.156,
0.196,
0.824,
0.435,
0.879,
0.496,
0.463,
0.362,
0.248,
0.733,
0.713,
0.47,
0.813,
0.458,
0.526,
0.375,
0.282,
0.897,
0.47,
0.473,
0.131,
0.26,
0.318,
0.504,
0.516,
0.471,
0.731,
0.436,
0.809
};


double potsize[77] = {
1497,
573,
548,
2394,
2222,
1572,
2048,
1697,
1635,
2197,
1923,
2022,
1472,
1854,
966,
1672,
2072,
1797,
1772,
1922,
1147,
2247,
1822,
2381,
2997,
1247,
1897,
2211,
2394,
997,
1061,
2023,
1849,
1667,
1747,
1973,
2547,
2222,
1416,
2035,
2147,
1272,
2819,
3766,
1272,
2747,
1772,
1716,
1272,
2072,
2347,
1897,
2438,
2022,
1322,
2022,
2772,
2460,
2285,
1872,
1994,
2073,
2522,
3636,
1873,
1794,
2073,
2275,
1173,
2203,
1448,
1997,
2022,
2447,
1672,
2016,
1072
};




const int runs = 100000;
double total[runs];

int count = 0;

srand ( time(NULL) );

for(int j = 0; j < runs; j++) {
total[j] = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < numba; i++) {
double rando = double(rand()) / RAND_MAX;
//printf("rando: %f, equity: %f\n",rando,equity[i]);
if(rando <= equity[i]) {
total[j] += potsize[i];
}
}
if (total[j] < 49234.87)
count++;
//printf("You won $%f.\n",total[j]);
}

printf("You ran worse %d times out of %d.\n",count,runs);





}

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

I like people who analyze bad results over a short period and make up some math to quantify it.

Good stuff OP.

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like people who analyze bad results over a short period and make up some math to quantify it.

Good stuff OP.

[/ QUOTE ]

its not hard to analyze equity after the money went in on all in hands.

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by Gildwulf

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

and yes, that code is ugly as [censored] but its a 5 minute hack so screw you

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
deleted

[/ QUOTE ]

wanna do it together?

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
STARS IS RIGGED.

[/ QUOTE ]

OBV.

Why hasn't somebody developed some kind of software to analyze every part of a hand equity/ probability wise. The only thing people use is pokertracker which tells you absolutely nothing.

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
kill yourself

[/ QUOTE ]

wanna do it together?

[/ QUOTE ]
lol

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

that sucks but how is firguing this out goign to help with your game?

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

make it rain on them hoes pete

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
that sucks but how is firguing this out goign to help with your game?

[/ QUOTE ]

Put $ it in with not so many favourable hands and let the long term catch up.

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by frinxor

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
that sucks but how is firguing this out goign to help with your game?

[/ QUOTE ]

Helps you figure out your hourly a lot faster.

Note that this is shortstacking (see potsizes), so a lot of allins happen, and a shitton of flips.

/stratinbbv

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
77 is a v v small sample size

[/ QUOTE ]

Its 77 all-ins not 77 hands. I'm gonna guess this is like 2.5k ish hands.

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

Yeah I know that. 77 isnt that much still, but running in the 95 percentile of bad is pretty unlucky...

you run bad lol

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

Can you post the result for each hand? It would be interesting to see what your equity vs. your return for hands you are ahead and hands you are behind.

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I know that. 77 isnt that much still, but running in the 95 percentile of bad is pretty unlucky...

you run bad lol

[/ QUOTE ]

.5% chance son. 99.5% percentile.

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

Pete,

Not sure exactly what the 2 sets of #s up there are, as in - do they account for the fact that some of your money went into the pot? So while you should have won $68k, you only net a much smaller amount. No? Not sure what your total won number reflects.

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
number of all in hands: 77
total equity after money went in: $68,713.76
total money won: $49,234.87

difference: ($19,478.89)

chances of running this bad or worse: ~0.5%

NLIS GAY. STARS IS RIGGED. FU ALL.

and yes, i calculated all this [censored] because i hate life.

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by Gildwulf

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
deleted

[/ QUOTE ]

ban

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

Brag post?

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

i respect the hustle

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pete,

Not sure exactly what the 2 sets of #s up there are, as in - do they account for the fact that some of your money went into the pot? So while you should have won $68k, you only net a much smaller amount. No? Not sure what your total won number reflects.

[/ QUOTE ]

He ran bad to the tune of 19k. He didnt factor how much he was supposed to win though.

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year *DELETED*
 

[ QUOTE ]
Post deleted by Gildwulf

[/ QUOTE ]

Something to the tune of: "die shortstacker, die"?

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year *DELETED*
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Post deleted by Gildwulf

[/ QUOTE ]

Something to the tune of: "die shortstacker, die"?

[/ QUOTE ]

similar

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year *DELETED*
 

chance this is calculated properly: .05%

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
that sucks but how is firguing this out goign to help with your game?

[/ QUOTE ]

it'd be pretty helpful for a lot of people actually, because it shows you if you're results oriented/should fix your game/just running horribly and actually a winner. I'd use one of these.

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

still good money, who cares

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
world-class ratholer

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
POKER IS GAY.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

this is what you get for shortstacking obviously

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is what you get for shortstacking obviously

[/ QUOTE ]

Other people's money?

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
difference: ($19,478.89)

[/ QUOTE ]

How many of your buyins is this? This doesn't seem too bad.

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

this makes me so happy...

learn to play poker

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year *DELETED*
 

[ QUOTE ]
chance this is calculated properly: .05%

[/ QUOTE ]

lol. so thats 1999 to 1. i'll bet $1000 on it at 100 to 1. do we have a bet?

how do you donkeys who don't understand basic math come to these conclusions?

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year *DELETED*
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
chance this is calculated properly: .05%

[/ QUOTE ]

lol. so thats 1999 to 1. i'll bet $1000 on it at 100 to 1. do we have a bet?

how do you donkeys who don't understand basic math come to these conclusions?

[/ QUOTE ]

oh and thats not the actual code, i removed some uglies from it to try to make it slightly more readable. i just noticed that the total[j] += potsize; line is actually wrong.

this should be a little easier to read:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
const int runs = 100000;
double total[runs];

int count = 0;

srand (time(NULL));

for(int j = 0; j &lt; runs; j++) {
total[j] = 0;
for (int i = 0; i &lt; numba; i++) {
double rando = double(rand()) / RAND_MAX;
if(rando &lt;= equity[i]) {
total[j] += potsize[i];
}
}
if (total[j] &lt;= 49234.87)
count++;
}

printf("You ran worse %d times out of %d.\n",count,runs);
</pre><hr />

for those that care, the program takes my equity percentage after the money went in and the pot size of each all in pot. it then generates a random number between 0 and 1 for each equity/potsize pair, and if that random number is less than my equity for that pot, it adds the pot size to the total for that run.

it does this 100k times. out of those 100k times, it usually "wins" less than the amount i won about 500 times. that's 0.5% of the time.

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pete,

Not sure exactly what the 2 sets of #s up there are, as in - do they account for the fact that some of your money went into the pot? So while you should have won $68k, you only net a much smaller amount. No? Not sure what your total won number reflects.

[/ QUOTE ]

this only tells me how much i should have won (gross) from my all in pots mathematically. it gives me a very accurate calculation for how i'm running after the money has gone in, and since this is the cause of most of my variance, i can figure out if my win/loss rate much faster.

to get a net you'd have to subtract the money i put in, but that's not a very useful number because it doesn't account for the times i pushed all my chips in and didn't get called.

Re: i just analyzed my 25/50 results for this year
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
difference: ($19,478.89)

[/ QUOTE ]

How many of your buyins is this? This doesn't seem too bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

running 19.5 buyins below expectation over 1776 hands is pretty bad.